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Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Imagine your reaction if someone in 2021 claimed that in three years Finland and Sweden would be NATO members.

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
It still needs to be signed by the new president (chosen by the parliament right after the ratification). Which will be a guaranteed thing, but it's just :stare: that at the last minute a surprise hitch was presented when the Hungarian president had to resign due to pardoning a protector of child molesters.

quote:

In April 2023, prior to and in commemoration of Pope Francis's pastoral visit to Hungary, Novák issued a series of presidential pardons, including that the far-right activist György Budaházy[14] and Endre Kónya. Kónya had been the deputy director of an orphanage in Bicske who had been convicted of covering up the director's molesting of children at the institution. When Kónya's pardon—later thought to have been issued under pressure from Zoltán Balog, Novák's erstwhile mentor and synodal president of the Hungarian Reformed Church[15]—was made public on 2 February 2024, national controversy ensued, becoming known as the "pardon affair" (Hungarian: kegyelmi-ügy).[16] Protests erupted in Budapest demanding Novák's resignation,[17] with commentators viewing the scandal as especially damaging to Fidesz's credibility as a defender of traditional family values.

This is the new acting president

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


Did he audition to play a dwarf in the Hobbit?

Dull Fork
Mar 22, 2009
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/26/denmark-drops-investigation-nord-stream-pipeline-blasts

So Denmark is closing their investigation, citing a lack of evidence to pursue a criminal case. Sweden dropped their investigation earlier. Only Germany still continues theirs. Could this be a subtle attempt to let the question go unanswered, because the answer (that Ukraine did it) would be uncomfortable to reckon with?

An actual lack of evidence would also lead to the closing of a case, I'm sure. I guess it just seems odd that all the investigations didn't wrap simultaneously, unless one country has some information they aren't sharing?

To be clear, IF Ukraine did it, I can respect their reasons, but drat that would be a risky to potentially alienate one's allies.

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Moon Slayer posted:

Imagine your reaction if someone in 2021 claimed that in three years Finland and Sweden would be NATO members.

I mean I dunno 2021 had Trump making GBS threads all over NATO which to me meant NATO is about to become better than ever.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Dull Fork posted:

Could this be a subtle attempt to let the question go unanswered, because the answer (that Ukraine did it) would be uncomfortable to reckon with?
It could. It also couldn't. In absence of any solid evidence we can only speculate.

Dull Fork
Mar 22, 2009

spankmeister posted:

It could. It also couldn't. In absence of any solid evidence we can only speculate.

Yeah, you're right. Its a shame that leaving open the opportunity for speculation can still serve Russia's interests.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nenonen posted:

It still needs to be signed by the new president (chosen by the parliament right after the ratification). Which will be a guaranteed thing, but it's just :stare: that at the last minute a surprise hitch was presented when the Hungarian president had to resign due to pardoning a protector of child molesters.

This is the new acting president



This is most Hungarian man in the entire world.

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

OddObserver posted:

Also unlike with a BTR you're not going to suffer further injuries from being folded into a pretzel to fit.

Any time I see a BTR mentioned, I think about its lower exit hatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoGjAWo-HIM&t=642s

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

Macron said he can't rule out sending Western troops into Ukraine. Reading through the article, it's very vague and hypothetical. However, it does seem to be a level of sabre rattling we haven't seen before from Europe.

https://apnews.com/article/paris-conference-support-ukraine-zelenskyy-c458a1df3f9a7626128cdeb84050d469

quote:

Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not ‘ruled out’ in the future, French leader says

PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not “ruled out” in the future after the issue was debated at a gathering of European leaders in Paris, as Russia’s full-scale invasion grinds into a third year.

The French leader said that “we will do everything needed so Russia cannot win the war” after the meeting of over 20 European heads of state and government and other Western officials.

“There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out,” Macron said in a news conference at the Elysee presidential palace.

Macron declined to provide details about which nations were considering sending troops, saying he prefers to maintain some “strategic ambiguity.”

The meeting included German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Poland’s President Andrzej Duda as well as leaders from the Baltic nations. The United States was represented by its top diplomat for Europe, James O’Brien, and the U.K. by Foreign Secretary David Cameron.

Duda said the most heated discussion was about whether to send troops to Ukraine and “there was no agreement on the matter. Opinions differ here, but there are no such decisions.”

Poland’s president said he hopes that “in the nearest future, we will jointly be able to prepare substantial shipments of ammunition to Ukraine. This is most important now. This is something that Ukraine really needs.”

Macron earlier called on European leaders to ensure the continent’s “collective security” by providing unwavering support to Ukraine in the face of tougher Russian offensives on the battlefield in recent months.

“In recent months particularly, we have seen Russia getting tougher,” Macron said.

Macron cited the need to solidify security to head off any Russian attacks on additional countries in the future. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia as well as much larger Poland have been considered among possible targets of future Russian expansionism. All four countries are staunch supporters of Ukraine.

Estonia’s foreign minister said earlier this month that NATO has about three or four years to strengthen its defenses.

In video speech, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the leaders gathered in Paris to “ensure that Putin cannot destroy our achievements and cannot expand his aggression to other nations.”

Several European countries, including France, expressed their support for an initiative launched by the Czech Republic to buy ammunition and shells outside the EU, participants to the meeting said.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said his country decided to provide over 100 million euros for that purpose.

In addition, a new coalition is to be launched to further “mobilize” nations with capabilities to deliver medium and long-range missiles, Macron said, as France announced last month the delivery of 40 additional long-range Scalp cruise missiles.

European nations are worried that the U.S. will dial back support as aid for Kyiv is teetering in Congress. They also have concerns that former U.S. President Donald Trump might return to the White House and change the course of U.S. policy on the continent.

The Paris conference comes after France, Germany and the U.K. recently signed 10-year bilateral agreements with Ukraine to send a strong signal of long-term backing as Kyiv works to shore up Western support.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Mr. Apollo posted:

Macron said he can't rule out sending Western troops into Ukraine. Reading through the article, it's very vague and hypothetical. However, it does seem to be a level of sabre rattling we haven't seen before from Europe.

https://apnews.com/article/paris-conference-support-ukraine-zelenskyy-c458a1df3f9a7626128cdeb84050d469

I'm not sure that this is sabre rattling? Sabre rattling tends to be the threat of force in response to completely reasonable things, like Russia threatening nuclear weapons, or China threatening a response to Taiwan having free democratic elections.

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


Sabre rattling is "look we'll use our military force if you do something we dislike". Hinting you'll actively deploy troops to a country is totally sabre rattling. It doesn't matter that France is rattling their sabres for a good cause or self-defense, it's still a threat on the escalation latter.

Kestral
Nov 24, 2000

Forum Veteran
It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for?

DarklyDreaming
Apr 4, 2009

Fun scary

Kestral posted:

It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for?

I feel like it's a combination of factors:

-Russian victories in the past couple weeks have re-framed the war into being less inevitable than it was

-Right wing politicians around the world have started falling in line behind Putin, which turned the war into a partisan issue in nearly every democracy

-If it wasn't obvious two years ago when western aid first started coming in, it is now well known that most NATO countries do not meet their minimum procurement standards, which is a gigantic embarrassment to all involved and an even bigger security risk

These three things create an environment where saber-rattling is rewarded. I care more about protecting our national integrity than anyone else in the room, remember that next election season

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


Kestral posted:

It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for?

Yeah I dunno, what do we expect to happen if Russia rolls up to Kyiv if everything goes south? Feels crazy now, but I definitely feel like boots on the ground or at least threatening to put boots on the ground would be a realistic possibility in that case. Probably not to actually reclaim all of Ukraine but a this is as far as you get followed by negotiations would be in order.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
There's been a lot of rattling from various European countries warning about potential direct war between Russia and NATO. I believe this is more for the purpose of encouraging their own populace to wake the hell up cause there is a land war already raging in Europe again. Support for military service is lower among 20-somethings than it probably ever has been in history in countries like Germany, Italy and England, but that's the demographic those countries will rely on if things get hot. So it's a huge problem that needs solving well ahead of time.

Seeing as all the sanctions and arms support for Ukraine has not deterred Russia at all, Europe needs to rapidly expand their own militaries to build a new level of deterrence. This last year we've discovered that political dysfunction in the US can equal Europe not having enough shells to sustain a conflict. Hell even the US is low on shells. Would the US abandon Europe at large like it did Ukraine? Actually doesn't matter if they do or not, deterrence means you do all you can to avoid testing of such questions.

My guess is France's idea for putting troops in Ukraine is a stop-gap deterrence while everyone is getting their acts together. They should specify more where that line is and why, for hypothetical example "if you're attacking from Belarus again we'll help protect Kyiv". But the idea is make more roadblocks in Ukraine before Russia can start thinking of trying their luck in the Baltics. And ideally, you want to set this up before Trump potentially throws the integrity of the alliance into question.

Or, maybe the troops could be for training. It's safer to train abroad, but if Ukraine is going to start conscripting hundreds of thousands of new troops that's a lot of money to spend on transit and expanding facilities.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Following the Swedes statement on being prepared for war, a German general mentioned we (NATO) have to be prepared to fight a war with Russia in the next 5 years, and a lot of other NATO/EU countries silently nodding their heads at that statement.

If Putin/Russia keep acting like this is a war of national survival for them I can see western troops in Ukraine happening. Definitely not armored brigades, but possibly AA and support elements, and even long range strike capabilities.

It has come to a point, if Russia wins this, that I doubt they will smile and wave at their neighbours to the west. That will force NATO to man that border similiar to Cold War levels (combined with nuclear build up/deterrence), which from a financial standpoint would make supporting Ukraine a no brainer.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
recalling some quote a while back, this is a war of survival for the ukrainian nation, but not for ukrainian elites, while it is a war of survival for russian elites, but not the russian nation

in practice, that means the russian state is fighting like it's a war of national survival

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

Kestral posted:

It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for?

Is it really? If I were certain that I’d have to fight Russia within the next 5 years, I would rather do it next year in Ukraine than in Poland in 2028.

“Surely, this is all just posturing and nobody would follow through with their threats” I repeat to myself since 1 february 2022 and yet here we are

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Deltasquid posted:

Is it really? If I were certain that I’d have to fight Russia within the next 5 years, I would rather do it next year in Ukraine than in Poland in 2028.

“Surely, this is all just posturing and nobody would follow through with their threats” I repeat to myself since 1 february 2022 and yet here we are

Stoltenberg's already made a statement saying that there are no plans to send NATO troops to Ukraine. Macron's comment was clearly more of 'everything is so wild, who knows what may happen next!' than any sort of commitment or even something based on today's reality.

E: It is a pretty big gaff on Macron's part, to be clear. Sending troops abroad is not something you want to mention off-hand like that. Especially with Macron's approval ratings.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Maybe they should start drawing up and making those plans vocal. The realistic threat of direct intervention by NATO in Ukraine could be one of the few things that end this war quickly.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

5 years seems like such a short time, but by then we could already have Le Pen in power in France, an Afd coalition government in Germany and some psycho nazi Putin successor ruling in Moscow. If France and Germany decide to sit out an attack on Latvia and the rest of Europe can't get a large enough coalition together to defend it, it's basically the end of the EU(which is exactly what Le Pen or the Afd wants).

Eastern Europe will have to "arrange" itself with Russia and Russia can demand all kinds of concessions that will make continued EU membership impossible, like guaranteed market access for Russian goods or international "non-alignment" with any military alliance block (which the EU is). Afd and Le Pen will gladly blow up the rest of what's left and try to replace it with some "European Economic Commonwealth of independent Christian nations".

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

DarklyDreaming posted:

-Right wing politicians around the world have started falling in line behind Putin, which turned the war into a partisan issue in nearly every democracy

Hm, which leaders are you referring to here? Not saying you're wrong, just would like to see some sources

I also agree with other posters that the worst-case scenario, with Trump getting in and possibly also various EU countries electing insane fascists, is really bleak. Hopefully all the EU countries will at least start proper military production asap, that should have happened two years ago already. In some cases production has gone up but it's still way too little too late.

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/

Russia decided to sanction itself, it seems. Lol that they are blaming it on high demand instead of (presumably) Ukrainians blowing up the supply.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Deltasquid posted:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/

Russia decided to sanction itself, it seems. Lol that they are blaming it on high demand instead of (presumably) Ukrainians blowing up the supply.

It kinda is that too, but lost capacity due to drone attacks and the effect of sanctions on the ability to maintain and repair facilities also have reduced the supply.

Increased demand is to be expected because Russia has a very large agricultural sector that eats a lot of fuel from spring to harvest season. The effects of this were seen in pump prices last summer already, before Ukrainians had (iirc) made that many refinery attacks. It forced the authorities to temporarily ban fuel exports in September.

Export bans are of course not good for Russia's budget, but in an election year you need to keep the plebs content.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Nenonen posted:

It still needs to be signed by the new president (chosen by the parliament right after the ratification). Which will be a guaranteed thing, but it's just :stare: that at the last minute a surprise hitch was presented when the Hungarian president had to resign due to pardoning a protector of child molesters.

This is the new acting president



Well, well, well... there was an expectation that Sweden would join NATO this Friday. But now there's another hitch in Hungary: the new standing president will be sworn in next Tuesday, and it remains to be seen when he actually signs the bill. So it might take another couple of weeks to take effect.

But that man has a trustworthy face, I'm not concerned. I would buy ice cream from him.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nenonen posted:

Well, well, well... there was an expectation that Sweden would join NATO this Friday. But now there's another hitch in Hungary: the new standing president will be sworn in next Tuesday, and it remains to be seen when he actually signs the bill. So it might take another couple of weeks to take effect.

But that man has a trustworthy face, I'm not concerned. I would buy ice cream from him.

I would eat his family goulash recipe.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I would eat his family goulash recipe.

Step One: Ride down roe deer on the puszta and shoot it with your Magyar bow.

cgeq
Jun 5, 2004

Kestral posted:

It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for?

Last month, in the UK, the head of the army was going on about how the UK military needs to expand in preparation for a ground war in Europe (link), so seems like the message is to get people prepared for something like Macron mentioned.

As long as NATO troops don't cross the Russian border, I'm sure it would be fine.

Gravitas Shortfall
Jul 17, 2007

Utility is seven-eighths Proximity.


boy I sure do love to be living in a time where nations are preparing for a major ground war in Europe but don't worry guys it definitely won't happen who would be crazy enough to do that

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

boy I sure do love to be living in a time where nations are preparing for a major ground war in Europe but don't worry guys it definitely won't happen who would be crazy enough to do that

I was looking for any fiction books that would cover this and I discovered convinced Tax-Evader Dan Brown's Chains of Command which from looking at the book jacket is how a squadron of air national guard F111's win the war in Ukraine in 1995. I can't find anywhere that discusses its actual plot though.


Any books written in 1938 on what a future war in Europe might look like?

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Nenonen posted:

Well, well, well... there was an expectation that Sweden would join NATO this Friday. But now there's another hitch in Hungary: the new standing president will be sworn in next Tuesday, and it remains to be seen when he actually signs the bill. So it might take another couple of weeks to take effect.

But that man has a trustworthy face, I'm not concerned. I would buy ice cream from him.

Normal ice cream seller or a Turkish lad in a kiosk?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

GABA ghoul posted:



Eastern Europe will have to "arrange" itself with Russia and Russia can demand all kinds of concessions that will make continued EU membership impossible, like guaranteed market access for Russian goods or international "non-alignment" with any military alliance block (which the EU is). Afd and Le Pen will gladly blow up the rest of what's left and try to replace it with some "European Economic Commonwealth of independent Christian nations".
Russia has proven itself so weak that Poland by itself intervening in the Ukraine war would win it outright. Eastern Europe won't have to do anything.

small butter
Oct 8, 2011

Charlz Guybon posted:

Russia has proven itself so weak that Poland by itself intervening in the Ukraine war would win it outright. Eastern Europe won't have to do anything.

This is the one thought I keep having.

Russia is in a much worse position now than they were before the war. One reason is that they showed themselves to be a very weak militarily. They used to be known as the second most powerful military in the world but I doubt too many people believe that now. They must understand this as well. I just see any NATO country entering the war and just destroying Russia.

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

Transnistria just asked Russia for protection citing unprecedented challenges and threats.

https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-breakaway-transnistria-asks-russia-for-protection/a-68396033

quote:

Moldova: Breakaway Transnistria asks Russia for 'protection'

Pro-Moscow separatist officials in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region have appealed to Russia for "protection."

Pro-Russian officials in the Transnistria region of Moldova on Thursday called for help from Moscow "in the face of increased pressure."

The call follows fears that tensions over the territory could open a new flashpoint in Moscow's conflict with neighboring Ukraine.

Why was the appeal made?

A special congress of the region is understood to have passed a resolution on the issue on Wednesday.

Officials are set to ask Russia's Federation Council and the State Duma "to implement measures to protect Transnistria in the face of increased pressure from Moldova," local media reported the resolution as saying.

The cogress said the Moldovan government had unleashed "economic war" on the region, blocking crucial imports and seeking to turn it into a "ghetto".

Transnistria had been secretive about the reason for holding a special congress, only the seventh in its history and the first since 2006. That congress saw deputies announce a referendum on integrating with Russia, a vote that resulted in an overwhelming majority in favor.

However, it did say that officials would address a deepening row over customs duties with the Moldovan government.

"The decisions of the current congress cannot be ignored by the international community," the "foreign policy chief" of the self-styled republic, Vitaly Ignatiev, told the meeting. Ignatiev did not indicate what those decisions would be.

What is Transnistria?

The small and mainly Russian-speaking sliver of land is sandwiched between the Dniester River and the Ukraine border.

Transnistria unilaterally broke away from Moldova following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Separatists fought a war with Moldova's pro-Western government in 1992, ending with hundreds of deaths and the Russian army's intervention on the side of the separatists.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has feared that Russia could use Transnistria to force open a new front in the southwest, toward Odesa.

Moscow is accused of seeking to destabilize Moldova, which gained official candidate status for European Union membership in June 2022.

Meanwhile, the territory's pro-Russian leadership accuses Kyiv of plotting to attack it.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

small butter posted:

This is the one thought I keep having.

Russia is in a much worse position now than they were before the war. One reason is that they showed themselves to be a very weak militarily. They used to be known as the second most powerful military in the world but I doubt too many people believe that now. They must understand this as well. I just see any NATO country entering the war and just destroying Russia.

Putin believes that they have new super cool hypersonic missiles, not to mention nuclear weapons, that can destroy the entirety of NATO if/when it comes to that. He is convinced that Russia is not actually using all of its military might in Ukraine either.

Fidelitious
Apr 17, 2018

MY BIRTH CRY WILL BE THE SOUND OF EVERY WALLET ON THIS PLANET OPENING IN UNISON.

Mr. Apollo posted:

Transnistria just asked Russia for protection citing unprecedented challenges and threats.

https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-breakaway-transnistria-asks-russia-for-protection/a-68396033

I mean, CSTO is barely even a thing at this point, what is Russia possibly going to do for Transnistria.

I dont know
Aug 9, 2003

That Guy here...
They failed to establish a land corridor, and Russian ships that get too close to the coast have a bad tendency of suddenly sinking. How will Russia even get people there?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Tunnels.

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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
They can send them a bunch of money that Transnistria won't be able to spend easily.

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