(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Imagine your reaction if someone in 2021 claimed that in three years Finland and Sweden would be NATO members.
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:07 |
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# ? Jun 7, 2024 13:11 |
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It still needs to be signed by the new president (chosen by the parliament right after the ratification). Which will be a guaranteed thing, but it's just that at the last minute a surprise hitch was presented when the Hungarian president had to resign due to pardoning a protector of child molesters.quote:In April 2023, prior to and in commemoration of Pope Francis's pastoral visit to Hungary, Novák issued a series of presidential pardons, including that the far-right activist György Budaházy[14] and Endre Kónya. Kónya had been the deputy director of an orphanage in Bicske who had been convicted of covering up the director's molesting of children at the institution. When Kónya's pardon—later thought to have been issued under pressure from Zoltán Balog, Novák's erstwhile mentor and synodal president of the Hungarian Reformed Church[15]—was made public on 2 February 2024, national controversy ensued, becoming known as the "pardon affair" (Hungarian: kegyelmi-ügy).[16] Protests erupted in Budapest demanding Novák's resignation,[17] with commentators viewing the scandal as especially damaging to Fidesz's credibility as a defender of traditional family values. This is the new acting president
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:23 |
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Did he audition to play a dwarf in the Hobbit?
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:29 |
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/26/denmark-drops-investigation-nord-stream-pipeline-blasts So Denmark is closing their investigation, citing a lack of evidence to pursue a criminal case. Sweden dropped their investigation earlier. Only Germany still continues theirs. Could this be a subtle attempt to let the question go unanswered, because the answer (that Ukraine did it) would be uncomfortable to reckon with? An actual lack of evidence would also lead to the closing of a case, I'm sure. I guess it just seems odd that all the investigations didn't wrap simultaneously, unless one country has some information they aren't sharing? To be clear, IF Ukraine did it, I can respect their reasons, but drat that would be a risky to potentially alienate one's allies.
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:34 |
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Moon Slayer posted:Imagine your reaction if someone in 2021 claimed that in three years Finland and Sweden would be NATO members. I mean I dunno 2021 had Trump making GBS threads all over NATO which to me meant NATO is about to become better than ever.
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:36 |
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Dull Fork posted:Could this be a subtle attempt to let the question go unanswered, because the answer (that Ukraine did it) would be uncomfortable to reckon with?
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:38 |
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spankmeister posted:It could. It also couldn't. In absence of any solid evidence we can only speculate. Yeah, you're right. Its a shame that leaving open the opportunity for speculation can still serve Russia's interests.
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:41 |
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Nenonen posted:It still needs to be signed by the new president (chosen by the parliament right after the ratification). Which will be a guaranteed thing, but it's just that at the last minute a surprise hitch was presented when the Hungarian president had to resign due to pardoning a protector of child molesters. This is most Hungarian man in the entire world.
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# ? Feb 26, 2024 23:17 |
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OddObserver posted:Also unlike with a BTR you're not going to suffer further injuries from being folded into a pretzel to fit. Any time I see a BTR mentioned, I think about its lower exit hatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoGjAWo-HIM&t=642s
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 01:06 |
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Macron said he can't rule out sending Western troops into Ukraine. Reading through the article, it's very vague and hypothetical. However, it does seem to be a level of sabre rattling we haven't seen before from Europe. https://apnews.com/article/paris-conference-support-ukraine-zelenskyy-c458a1df3f9a7626128cdeb84050d469 quote:Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not ‘ruled out’ in the future, French leader says
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:18 |
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Mr. Apollo posted:Macron said he can't rule out sending Western troops into Ukraine. Reading through the article, it's very vague and hypothetical. However, it does seem to be a level of sabre rattling we haven't seen before from Europe. I'm not sure that this is sabre rattling? Sabre rattling tends to be the threat of force in response to completely reasonable things, like Russia threatening nuclear weapons, or China threatening a response to Taiwan having free democratic elections.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:24 |
Sabre rattling is "look we'll use our military force if you do something we dislike". Hinting you'll actively deploy troops to a country is totally sabre rattling. It doesn't matter that France is rattling their sabres for a good cause or self-defense, it's still a threat on the escalation latter.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:39 |
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It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for?
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:53 |
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Kestral posted:It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for? I feel like it's a combination of factors: -Russian victories in the past couple weeks have re-framed the war into being less inevitable than it was -Right wing politicians around the world have started falling in line behind Putin, which turned the war into a partisan issue in nearly every democracy -If it wasn't obvious two years ago when western aid first started coming in, it is now well known that most NATO countries do not meet their minimum procurement standards, which is a gigantic embarrassment to all involved and an even bigger security risk These three things create an environment where saber-rattling is rewarded. I care more about protecting our national integrity than anyone else in the room, remember that next election season
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 03:49 |
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Kestral posted:It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for? Yeah I dunno, what do we expect to happen if Russia rolls up to Kyiv if everything goes south? Feels crazy now, but I definitely feel like boots on the ground or at least threatening to put boots on the ground would be a realistic possibility in that case. Probably not to actually reclaim all of Ukraine but a this is as far as you get followed by negotiations would be in order.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 04:08 |
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There's been a lot of rattling from various European countries warning about potential direct war between Russia and NATO. I believe this is more for the purpose of encouraging their own populace to wake the hell up cause there is a land war already raging in Europe again. Support for military service is lower among 20-somethings than it probably ever has been in history in countries like Germany, Italy and England, but that's the demographic those countries will rely on if things get hot. So it's a huge problem that needs solving well ahead of time. Seeing as all the sanctions and arms support for Ukraine has not deterred Russia at all, Europe needs to rapidly expand their own militaries to build a new level of deterrence. This last year we've discovered that political dysfunction in the US can equal Europe not having enough shells to sustain a conflict. Hell even the US is low on shells. Would the US abandon Europe at large like it did Ukraine? Actually doesn't matter if they do or not, deterrence means you do all you can to avoid testing of such questions. My guess is France's idea for putting troops in Ukraine is a stop-gap deterrence while everyone is getting their acts together. They should specify more where that line is and why, for hypothetical example "if you're attacking from Belarus again we'll help protect Kyiv". But the idea is make more roadblocks in Ukraine before Russia can start thinking of trying their luck in the Baltics. And ideally, you want to set this up before Trump potentially throws the integrity of the alliance into question. Or, maybe the troops could be for training. It's safer to train abroad, but if Ukraine is going to start conscripting hundreds of thousands of new troops that's a lot of money to spend on transit and expanding facilities.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 04:19 |
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Following the Swedes statement on being prepared for war, a German general mentioned we (NATO) have to be prepared to fight a war with Russia in the next 5 years, and a lot of other NATO/EU countries silently nodding their heads at that statement. If Putin/Russia keep acting like this is a war of national survival for them I can see western troops in Ukraine happening. Definitely not armored brigades, but possibly AA and support elements, and even long range strike capabilities. It has come to a point, if Russia wins this, that I doubt they will smile and wave at their neighbours to the west. That will force NATO to man that border similiar to Cold War levels (combined with nuclear build up/deterrence), which from a financial standpoint would make supporting Ukraine a no brainer.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 06:17 |
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recalling some quote a while back, this is a war of survival for the ukrainian nation, but not for ukrainian elites, while it is a war of survival for russian elites, but not the russian nation in practice, that means the russian state is fighting like it's a war of national survival
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 07:35 |
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Kestral posted:It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for? Is it really? If I were certain that I’d have to fight Russia within the next 5 years, I would rather do it next year in Ukraine than in Poland in 2028. “Surely, this is all just posturing and nobody would follow through with their threats” I repeat to myself since 1 february 2022 and yet here we are
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 11:26 |
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Deltasquid posted:Is it really? If I were certain that I’d have to fight Russia within the next 5 years, I would rather do it next year in Ukraine than in Poland in 2028. Stoltenberg's already made a statement saying that there are no plans to send NATO troops to Ukraine. Macron's comment was clearly more of 'everything is so wild, who knows what may happen next!' than any sort of commitment or even something based on today's reality. E: It is a pretty big gaff on Macron's part, to be clear. Sending troops abroad is not something you want to mention off-hand like that. Especially with Macron's approval ratings.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 13:14 |
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Maybe they should start drawing up and making those plans vocal. The realistic threat of direct intervention by NATO in Ukraine could be one of the few things that end this war quickly.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 13:17 |
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5 years seems like such a short time, but by then we could already have Le Pen in power in France, an Afd coalition government in Germany and some psycho nazi Putin successor ruling in Moscow. If France and Germany decide to sit out an attack on Latvia and the rest of Europe can't get a large enough coalition together to defend it, it's basically the end of the EU(which is exactly what Le Pen or the Afd wants). Eastern Europe will have to "arrange" itself with Russia and Russia can demand all kinds of concessions that will make continued EU membership impossible, like guaranteed market access for Russian goods or international "non-alignment" with any military alliance block (which the EU is). Afd and Le Pen will gladly blow up the rest of what's left and try to replace it with some "European Economic Commonwealth of independent Christian nations".
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 13:18 |
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DarklyDreaming posted:-Right wing politicians around the world have started falling in line behind Putin, which turned the war into a partisan issue in nearly every democracy Hm, which leaders are you referring to here? Not saying you're wrong, just would like to see some sources I also agree with other posters that the worst-case scenario, with Trump getting in and possibly also various EU countries electing insane fascists, is really bleak. Hopefully all the EU countries will at least start proper military production asap, that should have happened two years ago already. In some cases production has gone up but it's still way too little too late.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 14:01 |
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https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/ Russia decided to sanction itself, it seems. Lol that they are blaming it on high demand instead of (presumably) Ukrainians blowing up the supply.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 20:04 |
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Deltasquid posted:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/ It kinda is that too, but lost capacity due to drone attacks and the effect of sanctions on the ability to maintain and repair facilities also have reduced the supply. Increased demand is to be expected because Russia has a very large agricultural sector that eats a lot of fuel from spring to harvest season. The effects of this were seen in pump prices last summer already, before Ukrainians had (iirc) made that many refinery attacks. It forced the authorities to temporarily ban fuel exports in September. Export bans are of course not good for Russia's budget, but in an election year you need to keep the plebs content.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 20:20 |
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Nenonen posted:It still needs to be signed by the new president (chosen by the parliament right after the ratification). Which will be a guaranteed thing, but it's just that at the last minute a surprise hitch was presented when the Hungarian president had to resign due to pardoning a protector of child molesters. Well, well, well... there was an expectation that Sweden would join NATO this Friday. But now there's another hitch in Hungary: the new standing president will be sworn in next Tuesday, and it remains to be seen when he actually signs the bill. So it might take another couple of weeks to take effect. But that man has a trustworthy face, I'm not concerned. I would buy ice cream from him.
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# ? Feb 27, 2024 23:26 |
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Nenonen posted:Well, well, well... there was an expectation that Sweden would join NATO this Friday. But now there's another hitch in Hungary: the new standing president will be sworn in next Tuesday, and it remains to be seen when he actually signs the bill. So it might take another couple of weeks to take effect. I would eat his family goulash recipe.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 00:08 |
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I would eat his family goulash recipe. Step One: Ride down roe deer on the puszta and shoot it with your Magyar bow.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 00:25 |
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Kestral posted:It’s also total nonsense and will never happen, and Russia must know that. Who on earth is this messaging meant for? Last month, in the UK, the head of the army was going on about how the UK military needs to expand in preparation for a ground war in Europe (link), so seems like the message is to get people prepared for something like Macron mentioned. As long as NATO troops don't cross the Russian border, I'm sure it would be fine.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 09:05 |
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boy I sure do love to be living in a time where nations are preparing for a major ground war in Europe but don't worry guys it definitely won't happen who would be crazy enough to do that
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 09:25 |
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Gravitas Shortfall posted:boy I sure do love to be living in a time where nations are preparing for a major ground war in Europe but don't worry guys it definitely won't happen who would be crazy enough to do that I was looking for any fiction books that would cover this and I discovered convinced Tax-Evader Dan Brown's Chains of Command which from looking at the book jacket is how a squadron of air national guard F111's win the war in Ukraine in 1995. I can't find anywhere that discusses its actual plot though. Any books written in 1938 on what a future war in Europe might look like?
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 10:04 |
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Nenonen posted:Well, well, well... there was an expectation that Sweden would join NATO this Friday. But now there's another hitch in Hungary: the new standing president will be sworn in next Tuesday, and it remains to be seen when he actually signs the bill. So it might take another couple of weeks to take effect. Normal ice cream seller or a Turkish lad in a kiosk?
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 12:46 |
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GABA ghoul posted:
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 13:30 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:Russia has proven itself so weak that Poland by itself intervening in the Ukraine war would win it outright. Eastern Europe won't have to do anything. This is the one thought I keep having. Russia is in a much worse position now than they were before the war. One reason is that they showed themselves to be a very weak militarily. They used to be known as the second most powerful military in the world but I doubt too many people believe that now. They must understand this as well. I just see any NATO country entering the war and just destroying Russia.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 14:47 |
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Transnistria just asked Russia for protection citing unprecedented challenges and threats. https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-breakaway-transnistria-asks-russia-for-protection/a-68396033 quote:Moldova: Breakaway Transnistria asks Russia for 'protection'
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 15:15 |
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small butter posted:This is the one thought I keep having. Putin believes that they have new super cool hypersonic missiles, not to mention nuclear weapons, that can destroy the entirety of NATO if/when it comes to that. He is convinced that Russia is not actually using all of its military might in Ukraine either.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 15:16 |
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Mr. Apollo posted:Transnistria just asked Russia for protection citing unprecedented challenges and threats. I mean, CSTO is barely even a thing at this point, what is Russia possibly going to do for Transnistria.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 15:22 |
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They failed to establish a land corridor, and Russian ships that get too close to the coast have a bad tendency of suddenly sinking. How will Russia even get people there?
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 15:28 |
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Tunnels.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 15:29 |
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# ? Jun 7, 2024 13:11 |
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They can send them a bunch of money that Transnistria won't be able to spend easily.
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# ? Feb 28, 2024 15:33 |