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confused posted:Looking at the results so far, I wouldn't be surprised if uncommitted ended up above 20%. That would be about 200k people. 40k more than the margin Biden beat Trump by in Michigan in 2020. Uncommitted seems to be pretty steady at 15% (again keep in mind how provisional everything is), with the remaining non-Biden votes being 2/3% for Williamson and Philips each.
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Feb 28, 2024 03:21
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2012 was also a caucus remember. These results even just so far are kind of a win for the uncommitted already
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Feb 28, 2024 03:25
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Starbucks has agreed to begin bargaining with its prospective union, Starbucks Workers United, to create a new union contract. More here: quote:In a joint announcement released by both Starbucks and Workers United, the baristas’ union that is part of SEIU, the company agreed “to begin discussions on a foundational framework designed to achieve … collective bargaining agreements for represented stores and partners.”
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Feb 28, 2024 03:30
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Bellmaker posted:Fast food restaurants don't want you to work there either: More importantly, CBS featured an article about the company's Wendy's Fresh AI AI-enabled menu powered by generative AI in which AI was said 8 times. Maybe the real treasure was the stock options we exercised along the way.
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Feb 28, 2024 03:46
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Xiahou Dun posted:Uncommitted seems to be pretty steady at 15% (again keep in mind how provisional everything is), with the remaining non-Biden votes being 2/3% for Williamson and Philips each. My understanding is that Wayne county is the both the largest county population-wise and is likely to have the highest percentage of uncommitted votes. It's currently at 24% with only 4% reporting. It makes up 20% of the population of the state.
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Feb 28, 2024 04:10
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The divide over Israel/Palestine is going to be the big media narrative now. I really don't see how this divide gets bridged, unfortunately. You try to placate one segment and you're going to lose a lot of others, especially in the suburbs.
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Feb 28, 2024 04:20
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Eric Cantonese posted:The divide over Israel/Palestine is going to be the big media narrative now. The only winning move is to dissemble and draw attention away from it. A curious game indeed
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Feb 28, 2024 04:22
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Eric Cantonese posted:The divide over Israel/Palestine is going to be the big media narrative now. It will depend on the final margin. So far, it looks like there is only a ~2.5% difference between Obama's 2012 margin and today's - not much difference. But, Wayne county only has a small amount of the vote in right now. Additionally, there are some unexpected results like Biden doing far better with absentee and mail-in votes, but uncommitted doing better than expected with election day votes. It's kind of surprising how many people are coming to vote for Biden in an essentially uncontested election. There's no major down-ballot primaries either. Mail-in voting probably makes it much less of a hassle and more likely for people to vote even if they might not have otherwise. Mail-in voting seems to correlate with higher turn out, but it doesn't in every state, so it is a little hard to know whether that made any impact or not. Also impressed with the almost 2.8% of Marianne Williamson true believers who came out to vote in an uncontested primary and embarrassed for Dean Phillips for losing to Marianne Wilson right now. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Feb 28, 2024 |
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Feb 28, 2024 04:24
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JonathonSpectre posted:That teacher is in trouble if anyone decides to make a fuss about it. "I docked your grade because you don't have a private $1000 distraction cube like everyone else." No way to defend it, instantaneous loss, if I had to guess I'd say they're in their first 3 years of the job and maybe don't know this? Kind of the opposite; ancient teacher who needs to loving retire already. She was his middle school health teacher and decided to hit the abstinence before marriage section hard too, he was happy to be going to high school and be rid of her but nope, she followed him. I suspect she heard about the previous abstinence incident and was told something like ‘just teach what’s on the forms don’t deviate’ so is practicing some malicious compliance. Technically the lower score was for turning it in late because he couldn’t do it at home without a cel phone so they had to print it out, which lol you’d think that’d be like extra credit.
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Feb 28, 2024 04:38
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Looks like we are heading for the perfect sweet spot for online discourse where uncommitted is just a tad higher than it was under Obama. So it is noticeably higher, but only by a tiny bit and it is unclear if it means anything so everyone can read whatever they want into it since it isn't a clear good sign for anyone. Very on brand for politics in the last decade. https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1762673503168246068 https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1762674910516662444
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Feb 28, 2024 04:55
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Yeah, big new batch of Wayne county dropped that was significantly more Biden leaning than the first bit and dropped the Uncommitted percentage there to 17% so Uncommitted isn't getting anywhere near 20% statewide. Still only 11% for Wayne but the county Uncommitted is doing best in is now Washtenaw, where Ann Arbor is, with 61% of the vote in and 21% Uncommitted.
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Feb 28, 2024 05:07
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Time to log off for a bit then
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Feb 28, 2024 05:13
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Nothing in particular. There's just a baseline of people voting uncommitted in non-competitive primaries. I don't understand - is "uncommitted" generally a thing? Is it a Michigan thing? This is the first I've ever heard of it. E: why did Obama only get around 174k votes in MI in 2012? Is the turnout that much higher this time around or was 2012 low because it was a caucus? small butter fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Feb 28, 2024 |
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Feb 28, 2024 05:49
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small butter posted:I don't understand - is "uncommitted" generally a thing? Is it a Michigan thing? This is the first I've ever heard of it. It's a thing in several states. It has to be specifically allowed as a ballot option by the state. Most states don't allow it. It was made somewhat famous when racist dixiecrats in 2012 voted 42% uncommitted against Obama in Kentucky. That same year a racist convicted criminal won 40% of the vote running from jail in West Virginia.
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Feb 28, 2024 05:56
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small butter posted:E: why did Obama only get around 174k votes in MI in 2012? Is the turnout that much higher this time around or was 2012 low because it was a caucus? Turnout is way up because it is a primary with 9 days of early in-person voting and universal vote by mail instead of a caucus.
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Feb 28, 2024 06:10
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small butter posted:I don't understand - is "uncommitted" generally a thing? Is it a Michigan thing? This is the first I've ever heard of it. I don't know about MI specifically but caucuses traditionally get a fraction of the turnout of even single-day primaries. I think it's changed some to be more primary-like but you used to have to go there to commit to be there for a while, with speeches, discussions, people forming groups of the like-minded, and so on. Way higher buy-in, which makes sense since they're the direct descendants of the old smoke-filled rooms of the pre-primary system where party insiders got together to decide who they were going to put up in the fall.
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Feb 28, 2024 06:12
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I think success for the uncommitted campaign was more about getting journalists to report on it than actually winning votes. It was obviously never going to get enough votes to matter, but journalists did cover it so it was probably a success.
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Feb 28, 2024 08:01
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James Garfield posted:I think success for the uncommitted campaign was more about getting journalists to report on it than actually winning votes. It was obviously never going to get enough votes to matter, but journalists did cover it so it was probably a success. But it did get enough votes to matter. 100k votes in a closely contested and crucial swing state could decide the election. And Biden is behind by 3-6 points in swing state polls; he doesn't have the wiggle room to ignore the warning signs. March is here - the polls are starting to matter.
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Feb 28, 2024 09:07
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FistEnergy posted:But it did get enough votes to matter. 100k votes in a closely contested and crucial swing state could decide the election. And Biden is behind by 3-6 points in swing state polls; he doesn't have the wiggle room to ignore the warning signs. March is here - the polls are starting to matter. It didn’t get 100k votes, and it is far from guaranteed that the 13.8% (barely 1% more than the uncommitted during Obama’s reelection) will all spurn Biden on election day.
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Feb 28, 2024 09:15
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Kchama posted:It didn’t get 100k votes, and it is far from guaranteed that the 13.8% (barely 1% more than the uncommitted during Obama’s reelection) will all spurn Biden on election day. Uncommitted is at 98,400 votes with 10% left to count. It will end up with over 100k votes. It's not a great sign for Biden but you're free to handwave it away I guess. We'll see!
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Feb 28, 2024 09:18
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FistEnergy posted:Uncommitted is at 98,400 votes with 10% left to count. It will end up with over 100k votes. It's not a great sign for Biden but you're free to handwave it away I guess. We'll see! Still a much better showing than Trump’s result at the MI primary, with a non-realistic candidate at 26.5%/almost 300k votes Kalit fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Feb 28, 2024 |
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Feb 28, 2024 09:27
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FistEnergy posted:Uncommitted is at 98,400 votes with 10% left to count. It will end up with over 100k votes. It's not a great sign for Biden but you're free to handwave it away I guess. We'll see! The Google results were still saying 89k when I looked sorry. However, the percent really matters more than the raw numbers, since Biden’s numbers are somehow better than Obama’s, 580k vs Obama’s 174k.
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Feb 28, 2024 09:33
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FistEnergy posted:Uncommitted is at 98,400 votes with 10% left to count. It will end up with over 100k votes. It's not a great sign for Biden but you're free to handwave it away I guess. We'll see! Yeah with uncommitted skyrocketing from 12% to 14% Biden has no choice but to pick up the phone to the leader of the uncommitted movement and bow to their demands.
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Feb 28, 2024 09:44
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The Artificial Kid posted:Yeah with uncommitted skyrocketing from 12% to 14% Biden has no choice but to pick up the phone to the leader of the uncommitted movement and bow to their demands. 
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Feb 28, 2024 10:09
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So you’re saying the change in “uncommitted” percentage from 2012 to now is within Biden’s 2020 margin of victory in the state?
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Feb 28, 2024 10:33
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The Artificial Kid posted:So you’re saying the change in “uncommitted” percentage from 2012 to now is within Biden’s 2020 margin of victory in the state? No, I'm saying Joe Biden won Michigan by 150k votes in 2020
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Feb 28, 2024 10:45
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Failed Imagineer posted:No, I'm saying Joe Biden won Michigan by 150k votes in 2020 But isn’t that more than the total number of “uncommitted” Democratic primary voters? Maybe we’re at cross purposes. Are you saying Biden is going to win MI or lose it in the 2024 general election?
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Feb 28, 2024 10:49
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The Artificial Kid posted:Yeah with uncommitted skyrocketing from 12% to 14% Biden has no choice but to pick up the phone to the leader of the uncommitted movement and bow to their demands. This post is humorously implying that the Biden campaign doesn't have to give a poo poo about the Uncommitted voters or their concerns. I don't believe that's true based on the 2020 margins.
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Feb 28, 2024 11:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Looks like we are heading for the perfect sweet spot for online discourse where uncommitted is just a tad higher than it was under Obama. So it is noticeably higher, but only by a tiny bit and it is unclear if it means anything so everyone can read whatever they want into it since it isn't a clear good sign for anyone. Very on brand for politics in the last decade. That didn't take long. Question, since I know nothing about primary elections-- does the fact that more people voted in the Republican primary than the Democratic hold any meaning? Is that something that anyone can draw any sort of conclusion from or is it too disconnected from the general election that it doesn't provide any guidance?
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Feb 28, 2024 11:44
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Dopilsya posted:That didn't take long. Turnout for Party X presidential primaries tends to be lower when there's an incumbent President of Party X.
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Feb 28, 2024 13:21
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Dopilsya posted:That didn't take long. Everything is tea leaves at this point. There hasn't been a prior election similar to this, with a prior president running against an incumbent, in roughly a hundred years.
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Feb 28, 2024 13:53
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Biden could at least try to ameliorate this issue by not supporting the extremely right wing government of Israel who in the past has openly campaigned on behalf of his 2024 opponent.
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Feb 28, 2024 14:36
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This is a really bad result for an incumbent president in a key swing state he can’t win the election without.
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Feb 28, 2024 14:53
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Marianne Williamson's campaign that has been over for weeks ended up slightly beating Dean Phillips in the Michigan primary, so she is now unsuspending her campaign. What will be different now compared to when it was suspended? Unclear. https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1762825059083645064
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Feb 28, 2024 14:54
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Nucleic Acids posted:This is a really bad result for an incumbent president in a key swing state he can’t win the election without. It is almost the exact same uncommitted percentage that Obama got when he went on to win the state by 10% that same year. Primary results also aren't reflective of general election results. Obama's strongest primary states were all states he lost in the general election. Trump is only pulling a little over 60% of his own party in Michigan right now, but will surely do far better than that on election day. I think Biden has some problems going into election day, but this isn't really indicative of that. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Feb 28, 2024 |
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Feb 28, 2024 14:56
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Marianne Williamson's campaign that has been over for weeks ended up slightly beating Dean Phillips in the Michigan primary, so she is now unsuspending her campaign. i think its partly because she ran to the left of biden on some issues and attracted a decent following apperently. Dean is basicaly running on nothing and doesnt attract anyone. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Feb 28, 2024 |
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Feb 28, 2024 15:01
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Comparing 2012 to 2024 doesn't really make any sense, since US politics have changed radically over the past 12 years. Even if Biden is looking weak, don't forget that Arab-Americans aren't the only important group in Michigan, nor are they the only group we might worry about Biden being weak with. If Biden is underperforming, my first concern would be that Biden's unprecedented pro-union moves haven't really won him much goodwill against a weirdly Trumpy union rank-and-file.
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Feb 28, 2024 15:08
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Dean Phillips trying to find the silver lining in somehow coming in 4th place in a two-person race. https://twitter.com/deanbphillips/status/1762658134080868518
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Feb 28, 2024 15:10
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Main Paineframe posted:Comparing 2012 to 2024 doesn't really make any sense, since US politics have changed radically over the past 12 years. https://michiganadvance.com/2023/10/03/how-some-michigan-muslims-united-with-extremist-republicans-against-lgbtq-rights/ ill add that parts of the muslim american and arab american communities in michigan were already moving away from the dems before the horror show, mostly because social conservatism and have been in the last couple elections. gaza will probably accelerate some of that. that being said tlaib barely won last time but she will probably be fine this year.
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Feb 28, 2024 15:17
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Stabbey_the_Clown posted:Turnout for Party X presidential primaries tends to be lower when there's an incumbent President of Party X. To elaborate further, Biden ran in a more-or-less uncontested primary. (This is why people are making comparisons to Obama in 2012 instead of Biden-Bernie (and everyone else) in 2020). This is because he's an incumbent and incumbents generally don't get chalengers beyond small third-party candidates. With Trump, you have the Republican party ripping themselves to shreds about the role that a convicted fraudster and sexual abuser who's facing 91 felony charges spanning 4 separate indictments should play in their party. Hence, an actual primary, and the base really wanting to show that Trump is our guy while the probably slightly less psychopathic among them registering their vote for Haley. It's going to get a much higher turnout because there's an opportunity for an upset and something to actually argue about.
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Feb 28, 2024 15:18
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