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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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Pot Smoke Phoenix
Aug 15, 2007



Smoke 'em if you gottem!
Dinosaur Gum

Rod Hoofhearted posted:

The system is rigged in the Republicans’ favor, we call it the Electoral College.

Trump got 2.8 million less votes than Clinton and won. He got 7 million less votes than Biden and lost.

Imagine if Trump got 5 million less votes and still won the EC. Or 6 million. Or even 6,960,000. :shepface:

Not trying to be the thread doomer this morning, but this poo poo is NOT fine.

Imagine how many people out there feel exactly the way you do. They'll be out there on Election Day, too.

Republicans however are being more and more convinced that voting is rigged, even though the many Trump challenges against this have proven just the opposite.:lol:

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Rescue Toaster
Mar 13, 2003

ImpAtom posted:

I mean they spent the last 3 years making the case because they wanted to assure that it would actually stand up legally because if they rushed it and made a stupid mistake then it would be worse.

Garland dragged his heels as hard as he possibly could for as long as he possibly could. The only reason any federal charges were brought against Trump was because his withholding of classified docs eventually forced the appointment of a special prosecutor, who then said "Trump obviously broke the law on Jan 6 too, lets charge him with that."

If Trump hadn't hosed around with the classified docs, no special prosecutor would ever have been appointed and he absolutely would not have been charged for Jan 6 ever by Garland. Garland was not 'carefully making his case' he was desperately delaying to hopefully never have to bring a case.

SilvergunSuperman
Aug 7, 2010

Pot Smoke Phoenix posted:

Imagine how many people out there feel exactly the way you do. They'll be out there on Election Day, too.

Hopefully they live in the right state

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

Rod Hoofhearted posted:

He’s not losing Texas, but I do have my eye on Ohio.

He won by 5.5% That's well within the margins that he is showing he is losing among his base. A 3% swing is all that would take to flip. And his #s of repub saying they won't vote for him are higher than that.

DandyLion
Jun 24, 2010
disrespectul Deciever

Waltzing Along posted:

Naw. It's fine. He lost last time and is less popular now. Especially among the right wing. His only chance is rigged elections. Otherwise he is going to get shlonged and will even lose states like Texas that have been getting closer to blue but aren't quite competitive yet.

All of my family and friends who voted for Trump last election are still voting for him again this election. Ironically almost every one of them has gone through IVF to conceive children, and are not bothered in the slightest by republican attempts to eliminate IVF access. I think the FYGM mentality is an impenetrable shield that prevents trumbo voters from making any kind of realization of the cognitive dissonance.

Stoatbringer
Sep 15, 2004

naw, you love it you little ho-bot :roboluv:

Rod Hoofhearted posted:

Gonna be really funny if voters sweep Trump and the Republicans into power and then are still mad that IVF and abortion are banned. :psyboom:

Argh, my face! Why, leopard, why?

kazil
Jul 24, 2005

Derpmph trial star reporter!

real funny thing is if Trump gets sentenced to jail time in between being elected and inaugurated

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

DandyLion posted:

All of my family and friends who voted for Trump last election are still voting for him again this election. Ironically almost every one of them has gone through IVF to conceive children, and are not bothered in the slightest by republican attempts to eliminate IVF access. I think the FYGM mentality is an impenetrable shield that prevents trumbo voters from making any kind of realization of the cognitive dissonance.

Anecdotal + doomerism. Nice combo.

Asterite34
May 19, 2009



It's fascinating how Trump's '16 win has singlehandedly traumatized everyone into thinking he is some electorally invincible demiurge who will always win, no matter how seemingly unlikely or inexplicable. Like he can just summon up armies of registered voter demons from the Abyss at his command.

big nipples big life
May 12, 2014

How stupid is the electoral college? It's this stupid:

quote:

What's the biggest margin by which you can lose the popular vote and still win the presidential election?

Assuming a two-party[1] system and equal turnout[2], we could win with just 21.84% of the popular vote, with our opponent picking up 78.16% -- a 56.31% point spread.

How we compute this
We want the most "bang for our buck." That is, we need to win the states which have a disproportional influence in the electoral college relative to its population. And we want to just barely win those states.

For example, Wyoming is a great state to win. It has just 0.18% of the nation's population (563,626 people out of 308,745,538 total) and yet 0.56% of electoral college (3 out of 538).

We want to grab the most disproportionately influential states. We'll take the following states.

The number after the state is an "Influence Factor": (% of Electoral College seats) / (% of Total Population). This is a reflection of the state's disproportional influence. The higher the number, the more disproportionate this state's influence is. Understandably, the smaller states typically have higher Influence Factors, since the Electoral College guarantees them three Electoral College seats.

Wyoming 3.05
Washington, DC 2.86
Vermont 2.75
North Dakota 2.56
Alaska 2.42
Rhode Island 2.18
South Dakota 2.11
Delaware 1.92
New Hampshire 1.74
Montana 1.74
Maine 1.73
Hawaii 1.69
Nebraska 1.57
West Virginia 1.55
Idaho 1.46
New Mexico 1.39
Nevada 1.28
Utah 1.25
Kansas 1.21
Arkansas 1.18
Mississippi 1.16
Iowa 1.13
Connecticut 1.12
South Carolina 1.12
Minnesota 1.08
Alabama 1.08
Oklahoma 1.07
Kentucky 1.06
Oregon 1.05
Colorado 1.03
Washington 1.02
Louisiana 1.01
Wisconsin 1.01
Tennessee 0.99
Maryland 0.99
Arizona 0.99
Indiana 0.97
Massachusetts 0.96
Missouri 0.96
Georgia 0.95

Our opponent has won 11 states: California, New York, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Virginia.

This gives us 271 electoral votes (one more than we need!). If we take just over 50% of the votes in each of those states, but 0 in any others, we get a total of 67,442,555 nationwide. The losing candidate has won a whopping 241,302,983.

We win with just 21.84% of the population.

[1] In a 3+ party system, a candidate can have a negligible percent of the popular vote and still win. For example, imagine that everyone in the US runs for president and everyone vote for themselves -- everyone except for your mother, who kindly decides to vote for you. If you two both lived in California, which is the state with the highest number of electoral college votes, you would win the election.

[2] If you don't assume equal turnout, then you can also win with a negligible percent of the popular vote. There could, for example, only be one person who votes for you in the 40 states that you win, thus giving you 40 votes total in the entire country.
https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-largest-margin-one-can-lose-the-popular-vote-and-still-win-the-presidential-election

Crystal Thenis
Mar 23, 2023

by sebmojo
what happens when trump dies cus even if he does win, that husk is already out to pasture

kazil
Jul 24, 2005

Derpmph trial star reporter!

Waltzing Along posted:

Anecdotal + doomerism. Nice combo.

What part of it is doomerism?

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

Asterite34 posted:

It's fascinating how Trump's '16 win has singlehandedly traumatized everyone into thinking he is some electorally invincible demiurge who will always win, no matter how seemingly unlikely or inexplicable. Like he can just summon up armies of registered voter demons from the Abyss at his command.

Yeah. They forget how hated Hillary is/was. We thought she'd walk into a win against such a terrible candidate but because of how insanely horrible she was, she lost against a clown. It was just bonkers that the DNC thought she would be okay. She is still massively hated. And always will be.

Squiggle
Sep 29, 2002

I don't think she likes the special sauce, Rick.


Waltzing Along posted:

Anecdotal + doomerism. Nice combo.

What's the over/under on doomerism in that post

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

Sedgr posted:

Trump wealth confirmed to be lies and Mitch retiring.

Here's why that's bad news for Biden in November!

Dapper_Swindler posted:

i mean i live in PA so ill volunteer where i live even if i think its gonna go biden/casey.

Bold of Biden to choose Casey Desantis as his new running mate.

Rod Hoofhearted posted:

He’s not losing Texas, but I do have my eye on Ohio.

C'mon, don't do that to yourself, nobody deserves that.

Jeremor
Jun 1, 2009

Drop Your Nuts



Crystal Thenis posted:

what happens when trump dies cus even if he does win, that husk is already out to pasture

The Russians try to pivot to some other asset, there's probably a struggle for power among the maga side, and most far right voters probably lose interest for a while because they needed trump's particular brand of rich trashy narcissist to get motivated to destroy democracy

That's my guess anyway. Also I'll take a big wet poo poo and dedicate it to him.

SilvergunSuperman
Aug 7, 2010

Biden won in 2020 by a distressingly narrow margin even after 4 years of wolfshit craziness.

That was probably Hillary's fault too.

Victory Lap
Feb 25, 2001

Crystal Thenis posted:

what happens when trump dies cus even if he does win, that husk is already out to pasture

The white house doctor announces he is still the healthiest president of all time, it turns out it's against decorum to ask for proof that the president is alive, Stephen Miller sets up an elaborate Weekend at Bernies rig, and most people can't tell the difference because Trump still smells the same and talks just as coherently.

pop fly to McGillicutty
Feb 2, 2004

A peckish little mouse!

Waltzing Along posted:

Anecdotal + doomerism. Nice combo.

People conflate anecdotes with evidence all the time

kazil
Jul 24, 2005

Derpmph trial star reporter!

SilvergunSuperman posted:

Biden won in 2020 by a distressingly narrow margin even after 4 years of wolfshit craziness.

That was probably Hillary's fault too.

Incumbency is such an enormous advantage. It's insane when "pundits" say Biden should give it up

Rod Hoofhearted
Jun 18, 2000

I am a ghost




Agents are GO! posted:

C'mon, don't do that to yourself, nobody deserves that.

In 2022, three U.S. House seats in Ohio that were on no one’s radar flipped to the Dems. Then, Ohio voters voted for abortion rights and legalized marijuana, which the GOP-dominated state government is resisting. Also, Obama won Ohio twice.

It’s a better flip opportunity than Texas, and if Biden actually won it, the race would be called by 11pm EST.

Crystal Thenis
Mar 23, 2023

by sebmojo

Jeremor posted:

The Russians try to pivot to some other asset, there's probably a struggle for power among the maga side, and most far right voters probably lose interest for a while because they needed trump's particular brand of rich trashy narcissist to get motivated to destroy democracy

That's my guess anyway. Also I'll take a big wet poo poo and dedicate it to him.

from the outside I just see all of this collapsing the moment he goes. nothing is organised, there is nobody to pass the torch to. his fans are going to be in depression comas and totally disengaged.

if they are smart they will keep pressuring him till his heart explodes. problem solved.

Rod Hoofhearted
Jun 18, 2000

I am a ghost




kazil posted:

Incumbency is such an enormous advantage. It's insane when "pundits" say Biden should give it up

True.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

kazil posted:

Incumbency is such an enormous advantage. It's insane when "pundits" say Biden should give it up

Which is why Trump won his re-election...

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

Waltzing Along posted:

Yeah. They forget how hated Hillary is/was. We thought she'd walk into a win against such a terrible candidate but because of how insanely horrible she was, she lost against a clown. It was just bonkers that the DNC thought she would be okay. She is still massively hated. And always will be.

She also ran maybe the shittiest campaign in modern politics, and she had a DOJ hitpiece come out two weeks before the election. Garland is a gently caress, but on October 16th he isn't going to suddenly release a press statement saying "Ya know, there might be something to this Biden Crime Family thing"

Disco Pope
Dec 6, 2004

Top Class!

Scags McDouglas posted:

Beetlejuice. I'm trying to figure out which part would get me aroused but I'm thinking around here.



loving lmao. I was hoping to set up some gag about Starlight Express or something being like "that's disgusting!", but the reality is funnier than anything anyone could write.

Mulaney Power Move
Dec 30, 2004

So many people were sure there was no way Trump was going to win and he did and they were all taken aback so now they're afraid of the jinx is what I think it comes down to.

kazil
Jul 24, 2005

Derpmph trial star reporter!

mobby_6kl posted:

Which is why Trump won his re-election...

No, it's why Trump was even close despite being Trump. That was the entire point of my reply.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

DandyLion posted:

All of my family and friends who voted for Trump last election are still voting for him again this election. Ironically almost every one of them has gone through IVF to conceive children, and are not bothered in the slightest by republican attempts to eliminate IVF access. I think the FYGM mentality is an impenetrable shield that prevents trumbo voters from making any kind of realization of the cognitive dissonance.

They have to get hurt directly by something the R's or Trump does AND can be clearly and unambiguously be linked back to them in a big clear cut manner for it to start to move the needle.

Not change their minds....just to start to make them doubt a bit.

Tribal politics totally fucks with the ability to process information surrounding the group they think* they're a part of. Their brains are litterally going to edit anything they see or hear as they see or hear it in a way to present all the bad stuff in the best possible light by default. Then they'll start looking for any possible way to deflect blame on some other group. D's or immigrants or gays, etc. It doesn't matter that it doesn't make sense. Just that there is someone else to blame and get mad at so their anger is directed away from R's or Trump.

What breaks them out of the tribalism is usually constant clear cut failure that they can't ignore coming from the R's or Trump that they will usually perceive as a betrayal of sorts. The emotional bomb that is betrayal is a big part of what finally gets them to abandon the tribe. But that can take a long time to occur. Years. Decades even. Some never have that event.

Especially if all they watch is OAN or Fox where the R's and Trump are presented as perfect nearly all the time. Just google how they were presenting DeSantis' debate vs Newsom for example of how far and hard they're willing to lie about things. Or how they all suddenly began to say that it was really Antifa that was to blame for J6.

They have no shame. They do not care about the truthfulness or consequences of what they're saying. Its all for the tribe.

The good news is that Trump and the R's HAVE been failing at a lot of things that is clearly and unambiguously linked back to them. They can try to blame Biden and the D's but its clear even among their base that no one is buying it. And some of them really have gotten tired of the bullshit. It'll only be a small minority of R's that won't vote for Trump this time around but that is all that it will take to make Trump lose. I only hope that also becomes true for the downballot races. The D's need all the help they can get to hold onto the Senate or get a good number of seats in the HoR.

*unless they're rich or powerful they're not really part of the group, just that groups useful idiots but you won't convince them of that either

PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Feb 29, 2024

Rod Hoofhearted
Jun 18, 2000

I am a ghost




The biggest advantage Trump has is being a celebrity in the 80s. For some reason that poo poo is catnip to boomer brains.

So your “next Trump” has to have been a main feature of tabloid newspapers in the grocery checkout aisle when that kind of thing existed. And they can’t be over 80-years-old.

sugar free jazz
Mar 5, 2008

Waltzing Along posted:

He won by 5.5% That's well within the margins that he is showing he is losing among his base. A 3% swing is all that would take to flip. And his #s of repub saying they won't vote for him are higher than that.

it’s February lol

marshalljim
Mar 6, 2013

yospos
Every fact I don't like is fake news doomerism.

ElGroucho
Nov 1, 2005

We already - What about sticking our middle fingers up... That was insane
Fun Shoe

mobby_6kl posted:

Which is why Trump won his re-election...

Which is why it's so shocking Trump lost


You all want to loving lose so bad, I swear

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.
Yeah, I mean, I'm worried Trump will win but I think Biden is going to squeek out a victory just barely.

Crystal Thenis
Mar 23, 2023

by sebmojo

Rod Hoofhearted posted:

The biggest advantage Trump has is being a celebrity in the 80s. For some reason that poo poo is catnip to boomer brains.

So your “next Trump” has to have been a main feature of tabloid newspapers in the grocery checkout aisle when that kind of thing existed. And they can’t be over 80-years-old.

he won 9 years ago

after time and Covid a lot of those people are dead now. this is a different reality and I don’t think old people or republicans understand.

Nocheez
Sep 5, 2000

Can you spare a little cheddar?
Nap Ghost

In practice, it's even dumber. Why we don't have a 1 person, 1 vote for the only elected national office I will never understand.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.
I mean all the Republicans retiring and leaving tells.me they're seeing internal polling and gtfo.

McConnel leaving is a big sign that Trumps probably going to lose.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Nocheez posted:

In practice, it's even dumber. Why we don't have a 1 person, 1 vote for the only elected national office I will never understand.

Hicks need team balance

Random Stranger
Nov 27, 2009



Mulaney Power Move posted:

So many people were sure there was no way Trump was going to win and he did and they were all taken aback so now they're afraid of the jinx is what I think it comes down to.

If you're not worried about a 2016 repeat in which the least popular presidential candidate in US history narrowly beat the second least most popular candidate in US history, then I don't know what to tell you. Yeah, this is Biden's election to lose, but Biden is kind of lovely and dems are great at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...

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kazil
Jul 24, 2005

Derpmph trial star reporter!

Hollismason posted:

I mean all the Republicans retiring and leaving tells.me they're seeing internal polling and gtfo.

McConnel leaving is a big sign that Trumps probably going to lose.

McConnell stepping down as leader is him acknowledging that Republicans have been completely taken over by MAGA

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