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ughhhh
Oct 17, 2012

cat botherer posted:

sorry I’m dumb as poo poo, but I’m assuming this is a double entendre I’m not getting (?)

US torpedoes were notoriously bad during WWII and sunk a lot of subs by turning right back at them.

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DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Circular runs due to gyro problems, to be exact

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Circular runs due to gyro problems, to be exact

It's probably because of undercooked pork. This is why you go with Turkish döner.

Oneiros
Jan 12, 2007



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ5Ru7Zu_1I

it's an incredible story

also a very, very familiar one

Oneiros
Jan 12, 2007



best bit (that isn't the torpedo destroying the sub that launched it) is the submarine that scored over a dozen direct hits a japanese whaler without a single detonation. the captain kept their last torpedo unlaunched to take it back to port for examination. the contracted manufacturer, of course, insisted that it was in perfect working order

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
So on the subject of submarines, I learnt about the Japanese I400 sub recently, this thing was designed in the middle of WW2 and rushed to production. It was huge and carried 3 planes inside to dive bomb the US ships.

Even for a complete amateur to me this thing just screams desperation. The technology was completely untested and the things just didn't work. It just seems to me Japan entered the "throw poo poo on the wall and see what stick" stage even in the middle of the war. They knew they had no chance to win a long war with the US in any resource matrix and tried all kinds of asymmetric weapons. Kind of like the AFU battle canoes.

Morbus
May 18, 2004

Orange Devil posted:

Hey if we're asking that question we can also ask "why would China invade Taiwan?". We're in RAND lala-land here, I'm just wondering what scenario's these idiots are actually gaming out. They always seem to suppose a Chinese invasion when that's not at all necessary?

The salient features of most analyses, wargames, etc. are:

-Any surface vessels in the general area are going to have a bad time

-China can probably interdict shipping to Taiwan indefinitely, so don't count on being able to resupply them by sea

Now, the obvious conclusion from #1 and #2 is that, yes, if China wanted to exert pressure on Taiwan they could just blockade them and the US couldn't really do much about it. If anyone wasn't convinced of this before, I think operation pRoSpErItY gUaRdIaN should have set them straight.

However, every RANDbrain just jumps from here to "well, that means amphibious landing craft are gonna get hosed, so China would not be very successful at a ground invasion as long we can count on the Taiwanese fighting fanatically and the US flushing half its navy and aircraft down the toilet". Which is probably true, but seems like it misses the point.

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy
It's all projection because the US would very much love to invade Taiwan themselves to seize everything for private monetary enrichment.

China's liberation force is ready to ensure Taiwan's freedom is guarded for prosperity.

You see what I did there?

Megamissen
Jul 19, 2022

any post can be a kannapost
if you want it to be

stephenthinkpad posted:

So on the subject of submarines, I learnt about the Japanese I400 sub recently, this thing was designed in the middle of WW2 and rushed to production. It was huge and carried 3 planes inside to dive bomb the US ships.

Even for a complete amateur to me this thing just screams desperation. The technology was completely untested and the things just didn't work. It just seems to me Japan entered the "throw poo poo on the wall and see what stick" stage even in the middle of the war. They knew they had no chance to win a long war with the US in any resource matrix and tried all kinds of asymmetric weapons. Kind of like the AFU battle canoes.

i think the concept could work with drones

Ardent Communist
Oct 17, 2010

ALLAH! MU'AMMAR! LIBYA WA BAS!
if i were china i'd be working on a couple tunnels. sweat saves blood, and it's not like they don't have the technical skill or equipment. And after the war you can use them as public transit. Alexander the great figured out this problem thousands of years ago, if they're on an island too hard to take by ship, you turn into a peninsula. or since they got the tech, build a tunnel. they could call it the chunnel (china-tunnel).

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

stephenthinkpad posted:

So on the subject of submarines, I learnt about the Japanese I400 sub recently, this thing was designed in the middle of WW2 and rushed to production. It was huge and carried 3 planes inside to dive bomb the US ships.

Even for a complete amateur to me this thing just screams desperation. The technology was completely untested and the things just didn't work. It just seems to me Japan entered the "throw poo poo on the wall and see what stick" stage even in the middle of the war. They knew they had no chance to win a long war with the US in any resource matrix and tried all kinds of asymmetric weapons. Kind of like the AFU battle canoes.

Japanese cruiser submarines are misunderstood, but I also don't have a whole lot of time right now.

The basic answer is that they did not intend to use submarines like the Germans, British, American and Italians did. They needed extremely long range scouts to find the American battle fleet and relay that information so that the decisive battle could be fought. That had been their doctrine since 1921. They got better and better at building submarines that were long ranged enough to cruise across the Pacific and operate independently, or keep up with the battle fleet (which I think steamed at 33 kts, fast for the time) on picket duty, again to support the fleet during that major action. The fuel, machinery, and provisions, as well as seakeeping, dictated a larger submarine, a cruiser.

Well, it goes without saying that, just like a conventional cruiser, having a sea plane to scout dramatically increased the area a submarine could search, extending beyond the horizon. Remember the Japanese built cruisers that were pretty much intended to do this on the surface, the Tone class. A submarine operating sea planes could search far more ocean than one cruising without. To that end, sensuikan, cruiser submarines, were used in this extended cruise-patrol role. Smaller Japanese submarines were designed to operate the way we would imagine, making attacks on the American fleet as it approached the decisive battle.

Fitting the bombs was sort of, "well, we have the planes, would it be possible for them to carry bombs?" exactly like the seaplanes carried by all of the navies' cruisers could often carry a bomb or two or depth charges. They were almost entirely search planes, with a secondary role spotting for naval gunfire, but having that auxiliary capability was considered a nice bonus.

DJJIB-DJDCT has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Mar 1, 2024

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

Ardent Communist posted:

if i were china i'd be working on a couple tunnels. sweat saves blood, and it's not like they don't have the technical skill or equipment. And after the war you can use them as public transit. Alexander the great figured out this problem thousands of years ago, if they're on an island too hard to take by ship, you turn into a peninsula. or since they got the tech, build a tunnel. they could call it the chunnel (china-tunnel).

Well they are going to build the HSR tunnel under the strait, after unification.

Also get rip of the delay ridden Japanese tech not-so-HSR in Taiwan.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.
Man imagine having a military where the officer corps and civilian industry embezzle money, rely on old and failing equipment, use outdated tactics, and routinely subject soldiers to sexual assault. :allears:

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
FF beat me to it but yeah Japanese subs were intended to scout ahead for the American battlefleet, and Japanese scout planes on the subs was supposed to extend that range even farther, and it all makes sense in that context

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Well I will take your words for it.

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Circular runs due to gyro problems, to be exact

It's morbidly funny that there will be no desire to fix the Patriot air defense because of Ukraine's completely fabricated success rate.

unwantedplatypus
Sep 6, 2012
Regarding that German boat. Is it too conspiracy minded to think that the US has a killswitch for it's allies' missiles?

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

unwantedplatypus posted:

Regarding that German boat. Is it too conspiracy minded to think that the US has a killswitch for it's allies' missiles?

I doubt the missiles have this kind of killswitch, where the missiles are disabled in the air. The closest example I can think of is the F-35, our allies need two daily codes from the US in order to fly/fight with the F-35. Our only ally that received F-35s without this feature is Israel.

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

BearsBearsBears posted:

I doubt the missiles have this kind of killswitch, where the missiles are disabled in the air. The closest example I can think of is the F-35, our allies need two daily codes from the US in order to fly/fight with the F-35. Our only ally that received F-35s without this feature is Israel.

The internet's down guys, can't use the planes.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Israel got the jailbroken genocide planes.

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

BearsBearsBears posted:

I doubt the missiles have this kind of killswitch, where the missiles are disabled in the air. The closest example I can think of is the F-35, our allies need two daily codes from the US in order to fly/fight with the F-35. Our only ally that received F-35s without this feature is Israel.

tom clancy bullshit


....unless?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/03/france-urged-come-clean-exocet-missile-kill-switches/

dk2m
May 6, 2009
so I dunno if this is the right place to ask this or not, but I’m looking for some analysis of post-occupation Iraq and what happened from the stated neoliberal goals - all i know is the common retelling of the occupational government loving up and creating an insurgency, but what about its markets, government services, oil infrastructure, etc? how much penetration did American institutions have, and to what extent is Iraq today either a satellite or sovereign? maybe some smart people here can point me in the right direction

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

stephenthinkpad posted:

So on the subject of submarines, I learnt about the Japanese I400 sub recently, this thing was designed in the middle of WW2 and rushed to production. It was huge and carried 3 planes inside to dive bomb the US ships.

Even for a complete amateur to me this thing just screams desperation. The technology was completely untested and the things just didn't work. It just seems to me Japan entered the "throw poo poo on the wall and see what stick" stage even in the middle of the war. They knew they had no chance to win a long war with the US in any resource matrix and tried all kinds of asymmetric weapons. Kind of like the AFU battle canoes.

those subs had enough range that they were going to be used to attack the panama canal which even if they failed would have been the funniest thing a sub has ever done

palindrome
Feb 3, 2020

My brother did that once in an axis & allies game. Secure panama canal with subs and transport ships from the Pacific, unload troops and armor into Washington DC. It only takes a couple turns, better be ready for it.

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

dk2m posted:

so I dunno if this is the right place to ask this or not, but I’m looking for some analysis of post-occupation Iraq and what happened from the stated neoliberal goals - all i know is the common retelling of the occupational government loving up and creating an insurgency, but what about its markets, government services, oil infrastructure, etc? how much penetration did American institutions have, and to what extent is Iraq today either a satellite or sovereign? maybe some smart people here can point me in the right direction

I just saw a book literally on that subject, almost exactly, but I can't remember the title or publisher.

Something Liberalism Iraq?

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

RAND U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People's Republic of China posted:

Looking to the future, the U.S. ability to make denial sustainable over the long term depends in part on trends in the relative balance of power. In a pessimistic scenario, the PRC will benefit from robust economic growth and domestic stability, the PLA will enjoy sustained growth for defense spending as a result, and the PRC will continue gaining ground in the military competition. All else equal, this would make it more difficult for the United States and Taiwan to prevail with a pure denial theory of victory, although the full implications depend on other factors, such as whether U.S., Taiwanese, and coalition investments offset increased PRC defense spending and how emerging technologies will shape the ease or difficulty of amphibious assaults. Even in this pessimistic scenario for the United States, the PRC still has a considerable way to go before it surpasses the size of U.S. and allied economies and defense budgets. Figures 5, 6, and 7 visualize the current gaps between the United States, the PRC, and likely U.S. allies in military spending, the size of their economies as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), and the development of their economies as measured by GDP per capita.

In an optimistic scenario for the United States, the PRC’s growth over the next two decades might be substantially lower than what it experienced for the past three decades. The PRC’s power may have recently passed an inflection point, moving into an era of lower relative growth than other major states (Beckley and Brands, 2022, pp. 42–45; Pettis, 2013; Magnus, 2018). After predictions of ever-nearing dates when the PRC’s economy would eclipse that of the United States during the late 2000s and early 2010s, slowing PRC economic growth has begun to push that notional crossing point further into the future (Xie, 2022; Sharma, 2022; Ip, 2023). The PLA could fall prey to a military version of the middle-income trap, facing high personnel costs before it has fully caught up with the skills of the U.S. military. The PRC’s recent economic setbacks and the updated projections of its future growth suggest that the optimistic scenario is at least plausible.

Figure 5:


Figure 6:


Figure 7:


All that ink spilled chest thumping about THE GDP is not only the domain of Economist-tier stenographers but also taken seriously by the nominal war and politics understanders like RAND. Random substack and twitter authors will have made better comparisons because they dare to use materialistic measures like steel production and electricity consumption. Meanwhile, the intellectual dwarfs in RAND think looking at the spending numbers to be more substantial and indicative of US victory despite having already made a chart of what the PLA has already procured on it's "meager" budget.

RAND U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People's Republic of China posted:

But could protracting the war actually benefit Beijing militarily and eventually enable it to seize Taiwan in the face of a sustained U.S. denial effort? According to this line of thinking, the PRC’s larger population and industrial base, coupled with its greater stakes in the conflict, give it stronger capabilities and motivation than the United States to prevail in a protracted war. But protraction would not necessarily solve the central operational problem the PLA faces, which is transporting and then sustaining large numbers of forces to Taiwan. The PLA has a relatively modest organic sealift capability, which it will likely supplement with dual-use civilian shipping, but once it exhausts these assets it will need to rebuild its amphibious transport capability (DoD, 2023). The PRC has significant shipbuilding capabilities that it could use to build new transports, but if it refuses to end the war, then it will have to engage in a massive shipbuilding effort in docks that are vulnerable to U.S. attacks (as opposed to rebuilding these capabilities during peacetime).

Problem: The PRC has massive shipbuilding capabilities that can be used and directed to construct a massive fleet to conduct contested amphibious landings.

Solution: It can be handwaved away and is not worth worrying about because the US can somehow (???) disrupt a massive country-wide shipbuilding effort.

Definitely brain poison from Ukraine seeping through because only the dim would think that Ukraine epically shot a few stealth wunderwaffens to blow up Russian ships in a heavily defended port.

bonus:

RAND U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People's Republic of China posted:

Third, if the United States already occupied a strong military position after blunting a PRC invasion, there are political reasons that a U.S. president might be hesitant to use force in ways that deliberately create significant hardships for the PRC civilian population. After Russia’s brutal cost-imposition campaign against Ukrainian civilians in 2022–2023, including large-scale air attacks against Ukraine’s energy and transportation infrastructure, U.S. political leaders may want to avoid operations that conjure associations with Russian military strategy among U.S. domestic or international audiences. In addition to potential normative concerns, there are pragmatic risks associated with losing international support for U.S. efforts to use diplomatic and economic means to pressure the PRC to end the war.

Imagine thinking the Russians are brutal when Israel's genocide is right there tyool 2024. Granted, there's still international support for the US to lose among their less hardcore compradors.

Owlbear Camus
Jan 3, 2013

Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?



palindrome posted:

My brother did that once in an axis & allies game. Secure panama canal with subs and transport ships from the Pacific, unload troops and armor into Washington DC. It only takes a couple turns, better be ready for it.

drat that's even cooler than the time I went around Cape Horn and nabbed Brazil to put America on the back foot.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

dk2m posted:

so I dunno if this is the right place to ask this or not, but I’m looking for some analysis of post-occupation Iraq and what happened from the stated neoliberal goals - all i know is the common retelling of the occupational government loving up and creating an insurgency, but what about its markets, government services, oil infrastructure, etc? how much penetration did American institutions have, and to what extent is Iraq today either a satellite or sovereign? maybe some smart people here can point me in the right direction

Imperial Life in the Emerald City is a good read though it was written in 06

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Imperial Life in the Emerald City is a good read though it was written in 06

I remember going out and reading that book after the author did an interview about it on the Daily Show. Hell I feel like at least a good 70% of the first season of Blowback is directly from that book

Boat Stuck
Apr 20, 2021

I tried to sneak through the canal, man! Can't make it, can't make it, the ship's stuck! Outta my way son! BOAT STUCK! BOAT STUCK!
China, no! It's a trap, don't do it!

https://aviationweek.com/shownews/singapore-airshow/chinese-oem-united-aircraft-unveils-large-tiltrotor-project

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

Hold on now, if they could get McKinsey to do useful work they might manage it with a tilt rotor as well

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy
The real air power comes from weather balloons https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2e-LtpxMI0

BULBASAUR
Apr 6, 2009




Soiled Meat

dk2m posted:

so I dunno if this is the right place to ask this or not, but I’m looking for some analysis of post-occupation Iraq and what happened from the stated neoliberal goals - all i know is the common retelling of the occupational government loving up and creating an insurgency, but what about its markets, government services, oil infrastructure, etc? how much penetration did American institutions have, and to what extent is Iraq today either a satellite or sovereign? maybe some smart people here can point me in the right direction

From family there, the ruling party and many of the institutions are considered to be in bed with Iran. I'm not sure of the politics of how this happened, but Iran has a much stronger influence there than the Americans.

thechosenone
Mar 21, 2009

BULBASAUR posted:

From family there, the ruling party and many of the institutions are considered to be in bed with Iran. I'm not sure of the politics of how this happened, but Iran has a much stronger influence there than the Americans.

Being able to look forward farther than their nose and not supporting genocide probably played a part.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/TheCradleMedia/status/1763535138850234795?t=AG0750vO4wX9u7UOa8Y-eA&s=19

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004


lmfao

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020


This just go and show you how amazing America is. Even our former enemies can wake up to the light of freedom, democracy, and liberty.

The haters will just say that it's super obvious that they've always been a patsy for the US the entire time but that's just silly

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012


ahahaha

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

NeonPunk posted:

The haters will just say that it's super obvious that they've always been a patsy for the US the entire time but that's just silly

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sullat
Jan 9, 2012

gradenko_2000 posted:

FF beat me to it but yeah Japanese subs were intended to scout ahead for the American battlefleet, and Japanese scout planes on the subs was supposed to extend that range even farther, and it all makes sense in that context

Also they were using those long range subs with planes on them to bomb the continental US in like 1942 so it was something they already had lying around.

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