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PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010

Blue Footed Booby posted:

It's a quote from Men in Black.

well K was wrong.

also the consequences of the 2nd movie and us being in a giant locker universe has interesting implications.

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Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Zwabu posted:

https://www.al.com/news/2024/02/alabama-republican-urges-fertility-clinics-to-reopen-uab-says-its-not-so-simple.html

Alabama's Attorney General pinky swore that he wouldn't prosecute any IVF practices so Bama GOP pols want the IVF practices to go back to business as usual.

The gall of these fuckers putting the blame on these clinics.

I have yet to hear a single mention of a family putting the blame on these clinics, has that been reported anywhere?

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Shooting Blanks posted:

I have yet to hear a single mention of a family putting the blame on these clinics, has that been reported anywhere?

I believe the defendant in the wrongful death suit that led to the Alabama Supreme Court ruling was the IVF clinic or practice, not the person who destroyed the embryos.

Edit:

https://alabamareflector.com/briefs/second-wrongful-death-of-a-minor-suit-filed-over-frozen-embryo-destruction-after-ivf-ruling/

quote:

A new lawsuit seeking damages for the destruction of frozen embryos was filed against a Mobile fertility clinic on Thursday.

The lawsuit came about two weeks after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos destroyed at the Center for Reproductive Medicine in Mobile in 2020 were children, and that parents could sue for civil damages under an 1872 state law. The decision led to the suspension of many IVF programs in the state.

The lawsuit, brought on behalf of a Florida couple who had been patients at the clinic, states that the patient at Mobile Infirmary Center entered the area where frozen embryos were stored and destroyed several destroyed three of the couple’s stored embryos.

Zwabu fucked around with this message at 04:28 on Mar 2, 2024

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Looks like the article has a typo but the meaning is clear.

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014
I'm sure that couple are not trying to exploit this for personal gain.

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

Shooting Blanks posted:

I have yet to hear a single mention of a family putting the blame on these clinics, has that been reported anywhere?

i think the fear - and the reason why clinics are shutting down - is not that someone has, but that someone could. IVF is not always successful; implantation can fail. and IVF isn't cheap! what is stopping someone from trying to get some or all of that money back by lodging a wrongful death lawsuit after a failed implantation?

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
As a practical matter no high salary professional is going to tolerate any risk of incarceration at all. Pinky swears don't cut it. Neither would a law because why build a business if the political culture might destroy it next election cycle? Nobody wants to live in Alabama anyway. Move to blue territory and you can build a business without any fear.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

lobster shirt posted:

i think the fear - and the reason why clinics are shutting down - is not that someone has, but that someone could. IVF is not always successful; implantation can fail. and IVF isn't cheap! what is stopping someone from trying to get some or all of that money back by lodging a wrongful death lawsuit after a failed implantation?

Read the quote I posted just above your post. The article states that it is the IVF clinic that is in fact being sued for wrongful death damages. (In this case for the accidental destruction of embryos by one of the clinic patients.) So it is already happening.

Tarezax
Sep 12, 2009

MORT cancels dance: interrupted by MORT

Shooting Blanks posted:

I have yet to hear a single mention of a family putting the blame on these clinics, has that been reported anywhere?

I believe the poster was referring to the Alabama GOP placing the blame on the IVF clinics for shutting down, rather than their legislation and court rulings that prompted them to do so

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Hieronymous Alloy posted:

As a practical matter no high salary professional is going to tolerate any risk of incarceration at all. Pinky swears don't cut it. Neither would a law because why build a business if the political culture might destroy it next election cycle? Nobody wants to live in Alabama anyway. Move to blue territory and you can build a business without any fear.

This.

Doctors aren't loving stupid and they don't make knee jerk reactions, right now they are weighing their options as to whether or not they want to uproot their lives because this poo poo isn't going to end anytime soon in their home state and if it's not IVF it's going to be something else.

I truly deeply respect doctors that are trying to fight this out in these red states but I totally understand the ones that are just cutting bait and running because they never signed up for this poo poo.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

cr0y posted:

Doctors aren't loving stupid and they don't make knee jerk reactions

I appreciate your argument here but you may not be familiar with the financial practices of doctors.

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer
What blows my mind is that you're going to have tons of people directly negatively impacted by this poo poo, such that they may never get to have kids. The window of opportunity for IVF to work can be vanishingly small for numerous reasons, which means there's already been a huge disruption for couples already in the middle of the process. And these victims, despite being directly, overtly, and in some cases irreparably hosed over by this poo poo, are still largely going to go to the polls in Nov and actively support the politicians that promised to do this to them and in fact did.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



FLIPADELPHIA posted:

What blows my mind is that you're going to have tons of people directly negatively impacted by this poo poo, such that they may never get to have kids. The window of opportunity for IVF to work can be vanishingly small for numerous reasons, which means there's already been a huge disruption for couples already in the middle of the process. And these victims, despite being directly, overtly, and in some cases irreparably hosed over by this poo poo, are still largely going to go to the polls in Nov and actively support the politicians that promised to do this to them and in fact did.
It's pretty depressing yeah. I hope people are paying attention.

The Artificial Kid
Feb 22, 2002
Plibble

Cimber posted:

I'm sure that couple are not trying to exploit this for personal gain.

Without knowing more detail it’s not really fair to assume they have some crappy motive. These may be people who’ve been told they can’t get any more eggs to make more embryos, who’ve suddenly been told that 3/x of their remaining chances to have children are suddenly gone due to negligence.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Shooting Blanks posted:

I have yet to hear a single mention of a family putting the blame on these clinics, has that been reported anywhere?

No, but the Republicans desperately need someone besides themselves to blame. Rather than "Republicans accidentally made IVF illegal", they prefer a narrative more along the lines of "fertility clinics got suckered by fake news and unnecessarily shut down their IVF services even though we told them IVF wasn't actually banned".

B B
Dec 1, 2005

In a somewhat confusing development, Biden announces, while reading from notecards, that the United States is exploring the option of opening up a marine corridor to provide assistance to Ukraine in response to Israel's massacre of over 100 civilians:

The Independent posted:

Biden twice mixes up Gaza with Ukraine in aid announcement

Joe Biden mixed up Gaza with Ukraine twice during his announcement that the US will airdrop aid to the territory desperate for humanitarian assistance.

The US president, 81, referred to airdrops to help Volodymyr Zelensky's nation in a speech on Friday, 1 March, but White House officials later clarified his comments were referring to Gaza.

"We are going to join with our friends in Jordan and others in providing airdrops of additional food and supplies into Ukraine and seek to continue to open up other avenues into Ukraine, including the possibility of a marine corridor to deliver large amounts of humanitarian assistance," Mr Biden said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/joe-biden-gaza-ukraine-israel-hamas-b2505830.html

New NYTimes/Siena poll also just dropped:





NYTimes posted:

Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald J. Trump just as their general-election contest is about to begin, a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found.

With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.

Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

The poll offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest.

Mr. Biden has marched through the early nominating states with only nominal opposition. But the poll showed that Democrats remain deeply divided about the prospect of Mr. Biden, the 81-year-old chief executive, leading the party again. About as many Democratic primary voters said Mr. Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 as said he should be — with opposition strongest among voters younger than 45 years old.

Mr. Trump’s ability to consolidate the Republican base better than Mr. Biden has unified the base of his own party shows up starkly in the current thinking of 2020 voters. Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.

“It’s going to be a very tough decision — I’m seriously thinking about not voting,” said Mamta Misra, 57, a Democrat and an economics professor in Lafayette, La., who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020. “Trump voters are going to come out no matter what. For Democrats, it’s going to be bad. I don’t know why they’re not thinking of someone else.”

Mr. Trump’s five-point lead in the survey, which was conducted in late February, is slightly larger than in the last Times/Siena national poll of registered voters in December. Among the likely electorate, Mr. Trump currently leads by four percentage points.

In last year’s survey, Mr. Trump led by two points among registered voters and Mr. Biden led by two points among the projected likely electorate.

One of the more ominous findings for Mr. Biden in the new poll is that the historical edge Democrats have held with working-class voters of color who did not attend college continues to erode.

Mr. Biden won 72 percent of those voters in 2020, according to exit polling, providing him with a nearly 50-point edge over Mr. Trump. Today, the Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden only narrowly leading among nonwhite voters who did not graduate from college: 47 percent to 41 percent.

An excitement gap between the two parties shows up repeatedly in the survey: Only 23 percent of Democratic primary voters said they were enthusiastic about Mr. Biden — half the share of Republicans who said they were about Mr. Trump. Significantly more Democrats said they were either dissatisfied or angry at Mr. Biden being the leader of the party (32 percent) than Republicans who said the same about Mr. Trump (18 percent).

Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are unpopular. Mr. Trump had a weak 44 percent favorable rating; Mr. Biden fared even worse, at 38 percent. Among the 19 percent of voters who said they disapproved of both likely nominees — an unusually large cohort in 2024 that pollsters and political strategists sometimes call “double haters” — Mr. Biden actually led Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 33 percent.

The candidate who had won such “double haters” was victorious in the elections in both 2016 and 2020.

For now, though, unhappiness with the state of the country is plainly a drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. Two-thirds of the country feels the nation is headed in the wrong direction — and Mr. Trump is winning 63 percent of those voters.

The share of voters who believe the nation is on the right track remains a dismal and diminutive minority at 24 percent. Yet even that figure is a marked improvement from the peak inflationary days in the summer of 2022, when only 13 percent of voters felt the nation was headed in the proper direction.

“If we get Trump for another four years, we get a little better on economics,” said Oscar Rivera, a 39-year-old independent voter who owns a roofing business in Rochester, N.Y.

Mr. Trump’s policies were generally viewed far more favorably by voters than Mr. Biden’s. A full 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared to only 18 percent who said the same of Mr. Biden’s.
Only 12 percent of independent voters like Mr. Rivera said Mr. Biden’s policies had personally helped them, compared to 43 percent who said his policies had hurt them.

Mr. Rivera, who is Puerto Rican, said he doesn’t like the way Mr. Trump talks about immigration and the southern border, but is planning to vote for him anyway. “Biden? I don’t know,” Mr. Rivera said. “It looks like we’re weak, America’s weak. We need someone stronger.”

Overall, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were dead even among prized independent voters, drawing 42 percent each.

But over and over, the Times/Siena poll revealed how Mr. Trump has cut into more traditional Democratic constituencies while holding his ground among Republican groups. The gender gap, for instance, is no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Mr. Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Mr. Trump a nine-point edge. The poll showed Mr. Trump edging out Mr. Biden among Latinos, and Mr. Biden’s share of the Black vote is shrinking, too.

There are, of course, unpredictable X factors in a race where the Republican front-runner is facing four indictments, 91 felony counts and a criminal trial set to begin at the end of March in New York State Supreme Court.

The poll showed that 53 percent of voters currently believe Mr. Trump has committed serious federal crimes, down from 58 percent in December. But viewed another way, Mr. Trump’s current lead over Mr. Biden is built with a significant number of voters who believe he is a criminal.

The country, meanwhile, remains divided on some of the thorniest domestic and international issues.

By a narrow margin, more voters favor making it more difficult for migrants at the southern border to seek asylum (49 percent to 43 percent). Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden made dueling appearances at the border this week; illegal border crossings set record highs at the end of 2023.

As the Israel-Hamas conflict rages in its fifth month, 40 percent of voters said they sympathized more with Israel compared to 24 percent who said they sympathized more with the Palestinians. Mr. Trump was winning 70 percent of those who backed Israel primarily; Mr. Biden was winning 68 percent of those who sided with the Palestinians, even as he has faced demonstrations and a protest vote over his pro-Israel stance.

Philip Kalarickal, a 51-year-old anesthesiologist in Decatur, Ga., is a Democrat dismayed by Mr. Biden’s handling of the humanitarian fallout from the conflict in Gaza.

“Joe Biden should be doing more to ensure that the Israeli government goes about this in a way that provides safety for them but without the civilian toll,” Dr. Kalarickal said, adding that he would reluctantly back Mr. Biden this fall, given that he lives in a swing state.

“I understand that my vote or lack of vote carries a consequence, and I look at the alternative and that’s worse than the current thing,” Dr. Kalarickal said. “But I do want to register my displeasure. The way I vote doesn’t mean I like it.”

The Biden campaign hopes that more and more voters like Mr. Kalarickal snap back into their usual partisan patterns in the coming months. The return of such reluctant Democrats is one reason the Biden campaign has been optimistic that polling will narrow, and eventually flip, as the choice between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden becomes clearer.

Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump’s Republican rival, who has made the case that he will lose in November, leads Mr. Biden by double the margin of the former president: a hypothetical 45 percent to 35 percent. But she has struggled to gain traction in the primary and the poll portends landslide losses on Super Tuesday next week, with 77 percent of Republican primary voters picking Mr. Trump over her.

https://archive.ph/KrPBy#selection-5629.0-5633.392

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

“The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide was conducted on cellular and landline telephones, using live interviewers, from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024.“

Kinda surprised the sample size was so small for a national survey. Feels like the cross tabs start to have really high error bars at that point.

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



smackfu posted:

“The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide was conducted on cellular and landline telephones, using live interviewers, from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024.“

Kinda surprised the sample size was so small for a national survey. Feels like the cross tabs start to have really high error bars at that point.

How large is the average nationwide political survey? For some reason I thought they were almost all 1,000-1,500 people, which puts this just below the low end of that range.

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

Yeah it’s probably just the ones that want to get state level numbers that are bigger. Like the one they did in November.

“The New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023.”

soviet elsa
Feb 22, 2024
lover of cats and snow
conducted on cellular and landline telephones

I'm not trying to defend Biden's honor here, but I really can't take any poll regardless of sample size like that seriously. There is a big rear end skew in the demographic of "people who will not only pick up but earnestly answer unknown numbers"

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Why the gently caress are we discussing polls when we know they’re meaningless?

We still aren’t to the point where polls have ever been predictive, not even getting into the quality of polls and how representative they are with modern election results.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Bwee
Jul 1, 2005
Because B B Kramers into the thread to post "here's why Biden is doomed" with no context, he does this weekly and we have to take him in good faith because reasons

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

To be fair, NY Times just blasted out that poll as a news alert, which is why I read it because I’m a sucker.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

smackfu posted:

“The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide was conducted on cellular and landline telephones, using live interviewers, from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024.“

Kinda surprised the sample size was so small for a national survey. Feels like the cross tabs start to have really high error bars at that point.

No, we're simply seeing the largest racial party realignment in history as black and hispanic americans are deserting the Democratic party in droves, and the only place it ever appears are in polling xtabs



I'm gonna take the under on a quarter of black voters voting Republican/Trump

e: also 1k is fine for a survey size sample but it's pretty clear they aren't polling minority voters accurately. Or they are and this is hell.

zoux fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Mar 2, 2024

BRJurgis
Aug 15, 2007

Well I hear the thunder roll, I feel the cold winds blowing...
But you won't find me there, 'cause I won't go back again...
While you're on smoky roads, I'll be out in the sun...
Where the trees still grow, where they count by one...
The contrast of our support for what Israel is doing with an election year and (barring old-itis) having to elect Trump or Biden feels pretty hellish... but can't compare with what it must be like in Gaza.

Kagrenak
Sep 8, 2010

BRJurgis posted:

The contrast of our support for what Israel is doing with an election year and (barring old-itis) having to elect Trump or Biden feels pretty hellish... but can't compare with what it must be like in Gaza.

I also like to respond to people who are complaining about something troubling going on in their world with a reminder that someone else has it worse. Lost their job? I gotta remind them people are homeless right now. Worried about discrimination? I like to bring up Burma and Rakhine to give some perspective.

For some reason people just seem to stop talking to me after I do it though.

BRJurgis
Aug 15, 2007

Well I hear the thunder roll, I feel the cold winds blowing...
But you won't find me there, 'cause I won't go back again...
While you're on smoky roads, I'll be out in the sun...
Where the trees still grow, where they count by one...

Kagrenak posted:

I also like to respond to people who are complaining about something troubling going on in their world with a reminder that someone else has it worse. Lost their job? I gotta remind them people are homeless right now. Worried about discrimination? I like to bring up Burma and Rakhine to give some perspective.

For some reason people just seem to stop talking to me after I do it though.

It was less glib and more commiserating, as leftism has not in fact removed me from the consequences of elections and world events (though I think my eyes may have just rolled off our material plane).

And from here (or wherever my eyes have journeyed) hell seems pretty well represented these days. Perhaps "things could be worse" is the greatest trick the devil ever played, but worse for who?

small butter
Oct 8, 2011

zoux posted:

No, we're simply seeing the largest racial party realignment in history as black and hispanic americans are deserting the Democratic party in droves, and the only place it ever appears are in polling xtabs



I'm gonna take the under on a quarter of black voters voting Republican/Trump

e: also 1k is fine for a survey size sample but it's pretty clear they aren't polling minority voters accurately. Or they are and this is hell.

Where did you find that image? Is it part of a larger article?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Obviously black voters now identify with Trump as someone who got hosed by the courts, just as he predicted

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014
From the "Too drat late, not like it would have made a difference anyways" files:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1763727207954821374

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

small butter posted:

Where did you find that image? Is it part of a larger article?

Nah just a tweet thread

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1763898010230980615

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe
There's also the part where the poll shows Trump tied with Biden among women voters, a group he lost by 15 points in 2020.

But hey, maybe women just suddenly love Trump now, post-Dobbs and post-being found liable for sexual assault.

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014

DaveWoo posted:

There's also the part where the poll shows Trump tied with Biden among women voters, a group he lost by 15 points in 2020.

But hey, maybe women just suddenly love Trump now, post-Dobbs and post-being found liable for sexual assault.

Don't you understand? Its because after the Dobbs ruling woman have universally come to accept and understand that God has appointed their husbands as their rightful rulers and they will vote the way their husbands tell them.

Kith
Sep 17, 2009

You never learn anything
by doing it right.


the only people who care about polls sooner than three months out from the election are:
  • trying to push a narrative
  • trying to sell a narrative
  • trying to find a narrative
it is not healthy to do any of these. it is better for your mental and emotional health to ignore polling until debates start because that's when normal people start paying attention and poll sample sizes/respondants are made up of regular folks instead of fringe weirdos

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
Great piece in the Washington Post today describing how, before getting into antivaxx, RFK Jr. parasitized and basically Musk'd an environmental group.

How RFK Jr. hiring a bird smuggler threw his environmental group into turmoil

quote:

Kennedy’s detractors often divide his career into two phases: a laudable period as a workhorse of the environmental movement and a swerve into the conspiracist worldview that defines his independent bid for the White House.

But a close examination of Kennedy’s early years as a lawyer in the Hudson Valley shows that the same qualities that today inspire his supporters and alarm his critics — obstinacy, an itch to challenge authority, a mastery of scientific minutiae that is paradoxically coupled with a loose allegiance to facts — were causing controversy long before he trained his sights on Bill Gates or Anthony S. Fauci.

Fart Amplifier
Apr 12, 2003

Kith posted:

the only people who care about polls sooner than three months out from the election are:
  • trying to push a narrative
  • trying to sell a narrative
  • trying to find a narrative
it is not healthy to do any of these. it is better for your mental and emotional health to ignore polling until debates start because that's when normal people start paying attention and poll sample sizes/respondants are made up of regular folks instead of fringe weirdos

Telling people it's mentally unhealthy to care about polls when Donald Trump runs a perfectly good chance of winning a second term isn't responsible.

There is no healthy option in this political climate. Trump represents a tangible danger for people

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Fart Amplifier posted:

Telling people it's mentally unhealthy to care about polls when Donald Trump runs a perfectly good chance of winning a second term isn't responsible.

There is no healthy option in this political climate. Trump represents a tangible danger for people

Sure, but if the polls don't actually give you information on this one way or the other then reading them has no upside to balance out the mental health cost

You may as well ask ChatGPT who'll win the election and get upset when it says Trump

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Daily show recently ran a piece on RFK too, saying a bunch of the same things.

Kith
Sep 17, 2009

You never learn anything
by doing it right.


Fart Amplifier posted:

Telling people it's mentally unhealthy to care about polls when Donald Trump runs a perfectly good chance of winning a second term isn't responsible.

There is no healthy option in this political climate. Trump represents a tangible danger for people

what does reading a poll do to change this

e: what does reading a poll primarily answered by people with landlines do to change this

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Rand Brittain
Mar 25, 2013

"Go on until you're stopped."
I spent several days this week annoyed and frustrated by my inability to remember the name of the lead singer from No Doubt, and refusing to look it up until my brain decided to remember it, and about two days later it decided to allow access to the variable "Gwen Stefani" again.

I'm 37.

Anyway, that's my only contribution to the "Biden commits malapropisms" discourse.

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