|
"the gwen stefani variable" is an incredibly good username
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 17:08 |
|
|
Kith posted:the only people who care about polls sooner than three months out from the election are: It's exactly this, the same people who keep posting these early probes are the same people who disagree with every single probe when it's closer to electiontime and it doesn't who what they want in order to own the libs. Really polls are becoming increasingly useless and inaccurate, unfortunately I don't know of any other way to get a general feel of what the public thinks about certain things.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:09
|
|
|
zoux posted:Nah just a tweet thread To me this data is a clear continuation of the "Uncommitted" efforts of Michigan. From my experience and looking around online proactively it seems that Black Americans have been likely to take up the fight of the Palestinians in the current conflict and the polls reflects a temporary urging of Biden to do something or they'll walk. Maybe I am wrong but probably not far off. Similar polls show that Biden slipped and Trump seemingly picked up voters, but when given ranked choice, only 12% said they would choose Trump, 6% RFK and 7% Cornel West (link broken I will try to fix). In each of these polls where Trump initially appears to pick up Black voters support, in later questions he's usually sitting at 12%, which is still 2% above previous years but not as substantial as it appears. Shammypants fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Mar 2, 2024 |
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:14
|
|
|
bird smuggling sounds so whimsical, good for rfk jr honestly
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:18
|
|
|
Rand Brittain posted:I spent several days this week annoyed and frustrated by my inability to remember the name of the lead singer from No Doubt, and refusing to look it up until my brain decided to remember it, and about two days later it decided to allow access to the variable "Gwen Stefani" again. Resisting the urge for instant gratification via internet search and trying to remember it yourself is a really good thing that more people should do to keep sharp.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:24
|
|
|
Kith posted:what does reading a poll do to change this You don't get to decide its mentally unhealthy just because you feel like it's not doing anything. Do you really not get how telling people that mundane poo poo they do is mentally unhealthy on a forum is irresponsible? Reading this forum does nothing. Is it also unhealthy?
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:29
|
|
|
One question we have to ask is, given the exit polls and other data associated with primary voting, how does that square with a poll like this? In South Carolina only 8% of GOP voters were non-white and Trump barely got a majority of those votes. In Michigan Black voters continue to overwhelmingly support Democrats and Trump only got 60% of the non-White vote there among their small share of the electorate.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:30
|
|
|
Fart Amplifier posted:Reading this forum does nothing. Is it also unhealthy? I mean,
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:31
|
|
|
It’s absolutely unhealthy to steep yourself in negativity that is completely detached from reality. I’m sorry that hearing this causes you discomfort, but you will be much happier if you tune out at least some of the noise.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:31
|
|
|
Shammypants posted:To me this data is a clear continuation of the "Uncommitted" efforts of Michigan.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:32
|
|
|
Crows Turn Off posted:It was only like 2 districts in Michigan that high "uncommitted," wasn't it? I think it's a fairly large campaign across the US honestly. On tiktok and social media a lot of <40 year old Black Americans seem to be pretty involved in pushing for a ceasefire among other things in their politics.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:33
|
|
|
Wayne Knight posted:It’s absolutely unhealthy to steep yourself in negativity that is completely detached from reality. I don't care about polls. What causes me discomfort is people downplaying Trump's chances of winning like they did in 2016.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:38
|
|
|
I think they’re downplaying the accuracy of the polls.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:39
|
|
|
Fart Amplifier posted:I don't care about polls. A lot of the people who did that in 2016 are the very same who went hardcore into doomsaying in 2018, 2020, 2022, and today.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 22:50
|
|
|
Shammypants posted:I think it's a fairly large campaign across the US honestly. On tiktok and social media a lot of <40 year old Black Americans seem to be pretty involved in pushing for a ceasefire among other things in their politics. Just because someone's retweeting pro-ceasefire TikToks doesn't mean they're out there telling pollsters they're going to vote for Trump over Biden. I'd hold off for better evidence than that.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 23:00
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:Just because someone's retweeting pro-ceasefire TikToks doesn't mean they're out there telling pollsters they're going to vote for Trump over Biden. I'd hold off for better evidence than that. Well they aren't voting for Trump in any primaries so far so, 
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 23:43
|
|
|
Shammypants posted:To me this data is a clear continuation of the "Uncommitted" efforts of Michigan. From my experience and looking around online proactively it seems that Black Americans have been likely to take up the fight of the Palestinians in the current conflict and the polls reflects a temporary urging of Biden to do something or they'll walk. Maybe I am wrong but probably not far off. Similar polls show that Biden slipped and Trump seemingly picked up voters, but when given ranked choice, only 12% said they would choose Trump, 6% RFK and 7% Cornel West (link broken I will try to fix). In each of these polls where Trump initially appears to pick up Black voters support, in later questions he's usually sitting at 12%, which is still 2% above previous years but not as substantial as it appears. The issue with this is that the polls have been bad for Biden pre-October 7 and bad for Democrats pre-midterms, but here they are overperforming during the highest inflation of our lifetime. There is no evidence that Gaza has moved the needle on anything.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 23:52
|
|
|
small butter posted:The issue with this is that the polls have been bad for Biden pre-October 7 and bad for Democrats pre-midterms, but here they are overperforming during the highest inflation of our lifetime. There is no evidence that Gaza has moved the needle on anything. You know that inflation has been pretty close to 3% for about 8 months now right? I know that’s above the 2% the fed says it wants but it’s hardly the 9% or so it was in 2022.
|
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2024 23:55
|
|
|
Fart Amplifier posted:You don't get to decide its mentally unhealthy just because you feel like it's not doing anything. Do you really not get how telling people that mundane poo poo they do is mentally unhealthy on a forum is irresponsible? i didn't say it wasn't doing anything, it's obviously doing something - it's generating a bunch of hand-wringing and anxiety where there doesn't have to be any also you didn't answer my question Fart Amplifier posted:I don't care about polls. also² this is not at all what i'm doing and i struggle to find an angle where what i posted could be interpreted as such
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 00:16
|
|
|
small butter posted:The issue with this is that the polls have been bad for Biden pre-October 7 and bad for Democrats pre-midterms, but here they are overperforming during the highest inflation of our lifetime. There is no evidence that Gaza has moved the needle on anything. There is a difference between a response to a poll and actually voting though as we all know. Trump has been wildly underperforming his polls in the primaries so far, so..
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 00:20
|
|
|
Ogmius815 posted:You know that inflation has been pretty close to 3% for about 8 months now right? I know that’s above the 2% the fed says it wants but it’s hardly the 9% or so it was in 2022. Yes - Democrats more or less won in November 2022 which was a month after the peak (and a month after the stock market trough). It feels like the highest inflation for many people still considering that prices and interest rates have only gone up since then, and Democrats won nationwide in November of last year.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 00:23
|
|
|
small butter posted:Yes - Democrats more or less won in November 2022 which was a month after the peak (and a month after the stock market trough). It feels like the highest inflation for many people still considering that prices and interest rates have only gone up since then, and Democrats won nationwide in November of last year. A lot of the current price rises are due to companies realizing that there is an effective corporate oligarchy in the US, and many consumers are tolerating (not enjoying!) higher prices because they have few options. Biden is expected to address this during his SOTU next week. And this isn't some hidden action by the companies, there are plenty of reports out there of CEOs defending pushing prices as high as possible, saying that Americans are OK eating cornflakes for dinner, etc.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 00:27
|
|
|
With Super Tuesday looming, I find it important to remember that local and state elections can be an important way to make your voice heard. The national polling again does not look good for Democrats and maybe this time, the shoe is ready to fall or drop off the other foot. Politicians, more than ever, are jockeying for future posts. Democrats might find themselves reeling from a Michigan primary where polling expectations barely exceeded the 10-12% margin set by the far left. With two uncommitted delegates from Ann Arbor and Congressional District Twelve, Joe finds himself staring down a Washington UCFW union that is 50k strong. Americans find themselves dealing with a high cost of living, and "widespread freakout among Dems." The "Give Joe a chance" crowd seems to have eroded along with his support among non-white voters sinking. As the immigration and economy become stronger issues, EBO has a GOP-owned Trump at 50% instead of 51%.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 00:33
|
|
|
Shooting Blanks posted:A lot of the current price rises are due to companies realizing that there is an effective corporate oligarchy in the US, and many consumers are tolerating (not enjoying!) higher prices because they have few options. Biden is expected to address this during his SOTU next week. And this isn't some hidden action by the companies, there are plenty of reports out there of CEOs defending pushing prices as high as possible, saying that Americans are OK eating cornflakes for dinner, etc. I agree with all of that. I'm just saying that given everything that's happened, the party in power doing as well as they have is incredible.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 00:34
|
|
|
small butter posted:I agree with all of that. I'm just saying that given everything that's happened, the party in power doing as well as they have is incredible. My point is that, as usual, the current administration is doing a poor job of communicating both their past/current actions and their near-term goals. Hopefully Biden has some concrete plans to announce to give folks a bit more optimism.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 00:42
|
|
|
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/business/wendys-dynamic-pricing-surge-explained/index.html I am happy to see Wendys getting nailed to the wall over this and am hoping we can kill this idea in the crib. In my opinion AI modeling is going to make this poo poo so much worse by finding the the perfect price/pain point that people are willing to swallow.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:04
|
|
|
small butter posted:the highest inflation of our lifetime
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:04
|
|
|
Crows Turn Off posted:Evidence for this? https://www.thebalancemoney.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093 Highest since 1981, I'd put the average goon at born at 1981-88 but there gathering solid numbers on that would be depressing so I'm not gonna.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:08
|
|
|
cr0y posted:https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/business/wendys-dynamic-pricing-surge-explained/index.html i would say that algorithmic pricing is not a new concept and "AI" tech is completely unnecessary for it. The AI label is a kinda bullshit cover
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:15
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:i would say that algorithmic pricing is not a new concept and "AI" tech is completely unnecessary for it. The AI label is a kinda bullshit cover This. Software driven price optimization has been around for literal decades - PROS is the one I'm familiar with, and they've been around since the mid-80s. The AI label has been applied by the vendors as a sales pitch to new clients. One thing that has changed is companies' ability to change their pricing in real time or near real time, as their customers see it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:20
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:i would say that algorithmic pricing is not a new concept and "AI" tech is completely unnecessary for it. The AI label is a kinda bullshit cover Yeah, like, happy hour is a thing. Which makes it even funnier that Wendy's made such a colossal messaging blunder.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:20
|
|
|
socialsecurity posted:https://www.thebalancemoney.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093 1984, 85, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 96, 2000, 04, 05, 11, 21, 22
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:24
|
|
|
Crows Turn Off posted:I'm sure I'm reading this wrong, but according to the chart, inflation is higher in the following years than in 2024: I was being generous and assuming the inflation comment referred to the entire Biden presidency not this exact moment.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:26
|
|
|
I’m not sure if it was Wendy’s originally or the coverage, but tying it to surge pricing, the #1 thing everyone hates about the gig economy, hurt them a lot Also happy hour is a price cut, everyone immediately leapt to the possibility of price increases
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:27
|
|
|
Let's be clear, even if Biden does actually win, significant numbers are going to reject the result and will very likely resort to violence. https://x.com/ElevenFilms/status/1763627183283798025?s=20
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 01:44
|
|
|
Shammypants posted:I think it's a fairly large campaign across the US honestly. On tiktok and social media a lot of <40 year old Black Americans seem to be pretty involved in pushing for a ceasefire among other things in their politics. You think but you don't really have any real numbers. "A lot of 40 year old Black Americans", how many have you personally seen saying they'd vote Trump over Biden? Do you think that number you have seen is enough to move the meter at all? It's not that I don't believe you could be right, but it just seems to be "trust me". Kchama fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Mar 3, 2024 |
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 02:00
|
|
|
Kchama posted:You think but you don't really have any real numbers. "A lot of 40 year olds", how many have you personally seen saying they'd vote Trump over Biden? Do you think that number you have seen is enough to move the meter at all? It's not that I don't believe you could be right, but it just seems to be "trust me". I don't think they mean it, I think responding to polls about preferences is a protest statement rather than a reflection of what will be actual outcomes. No where in America are Black voters coming out for Trump, despite this kind of poll.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 02:03
|
|
|
zoux posted:No, we're simply seeing the largest racial party realignment in history as black and hispanic americans are deserting the Democratic party in droves, and the only place it ever appears are in polling xtabs What you’re missing is that black voters can see that Trump’s oppression as a wealthy guy getting held accountable for his real actions is just like their experience of worry that random cops will abuse or attack them for no reason.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 03:06
|
|
|
Rand Brittain posted:I spent several days this week annoyed and frustrated by my inability to remember the name of the lead singer from No Doubt, and refusing to look it up until my brain decided to remember it, and about two days later it decided to allow access to the variable "Gwen Stefani" again. Gwen Stefani is not some variable coming in with the breeze on Sunday Morning, she’s a constant, like someone who always knew they’d end up your ex-girlfriend.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 03:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 17:08 |
|
|
drawkcab si eman ym posted:With Super Tuesday looming, I find it important to remember that local and state elections can be an important way to make your voice heard. The national polling again does not look good for Democrats and maybe this time, the shoe is ready to fall or drop off the other foot. Politicians, more than ever, are jockeying for future posts. This is good strategy. We should all start brainstorming ways to make Trump’s only viable opponent look weak and unelectable. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2024 03:23
|
|