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genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Are they expecting China to keep giving them high quality copper alloy for shaped charges and wolfram for penetrators up until the moment shots are fired too?

I mean Russian gas is currently heating my house

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DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

I didn’t realize the Germans admitted that call was real. One step closer to WW3, I guess.

Since one of the people recorded was at the Singapore Airshow, security is going to be insane at the trade shows this year.

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1764408584438227315?s=20

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

genericnick posted:

I mean Russian gas is currently heating my house

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGbI87tyr_4

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

I didn’t realize the Germans admitted that call was real. One step closer to WW3, I guess.

Since one of the people recorded was at the Singapore Airshow, security is going to be insane at the trade shows this year.

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1764408584438227315?s=20

LMAO why would they admit this. Its going to happen are they just going to shrug and say "Oh sure we had not plans in this"

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

IT guys please explain how bad this is: https://x.com/eugyppius1/status/1764380293627097445?s=20

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

stephenthinkpad posted:

Europe battles powder shortage to supply shells for Ukraine


"To make powder, you need a specific kind of cotton, which mostly comes from China," he said.

Nitrocellulose, also known as guncotton, is a key ingredient in gunpowder manufacture.

"Would you know it, deliveries of this cotton from China stopped as if by chance a few months ago," Breton added.

Looks, this is just China complying with the proposed EU ban on cotton from Xinjiang.

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010





Webex is secure enough for the DoD for general web meetings but if you are talking about poo poo like this it better be in a SCIF. Extremely amateurish poo poo for people at the very top of the german military.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Cao Ni Ma posted:

Webex is secure enough for the DoD for general web meetings but if you are talking about poo poo like this it better be in a SCIF. Extremely amateurish poo poo for people at the very top of the german military.

Given the German military's history, it sounds like par for the course, actually.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

quote:

Third guy said, they can do the targeting preparation at the German Air Force. But to make it look like they’re not participating, they can drive an USB stick to Poland.
Um just use email dummies!!!

Blowing up the bridge during or before the counteroffensive might have made some difference. Now its too late and just vindictive

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Just do a twitch stream and tell the Ukraine guys what number to punch in.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012


:shrug: I can't really say. Seems like the Russians in particular would know all this and none of the clown antics to put more layers of separation between the Germans and the Ukrainians if the missiles end up being handed over would be intended to trick them
They'd be there to accord with arbitrary political demands.

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/TomFisher37/status/1764427763115569634

selling AND closing the oil reserves

lol

lmao

Jon Pod Van Damm
Apr 6, 2009

THE POSSESSION OF WEALTH IS IN AND OF ITSELF A SIGN OF POOR VIRTUE. AS SUCH:
1 NEVER TRUST ANY RICH PERSON.
2 NEVER HIRE ANY RICH PERSON.
BY RULE 1, IT IS APPROPRIATE TO PRESUME THAT ALL DEGREES AND CREDENTIALS HELD BY A WEALTHY PERSON ARE FRAUDULENT. THIS JUSTIFIES RULE 2--RULE 1 NEEDS NO JUSTIFIC



For too long the government has been distorting and manipulating the market :argh:

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

genericnick posted:

:shrug: I can't really say. Seems like the Russians in particular would know all this and none of the clown antics to put more layers of separation between the Germans and the Ukrainians if the missiles end up being handed over would be intended to trick them
They'd be there to accord with arbitrary political demands.

Well, see that's what I wonder about, because supposing Germany folds to what must be overwhelming US pressure and gives the missiles to Ukraine, and now we know MBDA and the German military would be planning the missions, programming control units, and the driving them to be loaded under direct British supervision onto Ukrainian planes, if a strike still happens, is Russia going to loving do something, or what?

You'd think there are only so many bases Su-24s can fly from anyway and they'd want to whack the ground crews and supporting infrastructure, even if the aircraft are in hardened shelters.

e: and then there was all that noise about NATO "non-combat troops" "having a presence" at the few F-16 ready bases to deter Russia from striking them... which... what the gently caress does that mean?

I guess we should just be glad they aren't openly announcing the intention to have the Ukrainians fly sorties from Romanian and Polish airbases.

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022


Found this picture from a slide explaining Russian electronic warfare for anyone that wants to know more about it.

https://oe.tradoc.army.mil/how-russia-fights/
It's from here, scroll down to Electronic Warfare. You'll find the single slide powerpoint with this picture on it. This is straight from US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

https://oe.tradoc.army.mil/how-china-fights/
Here's the webpage for how China fights.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Are they expecting China to keep giving them high quality copper alloy for shaped charges and wolfram for penetrators up until the moment shots are fired too?

one might argue that the USSR did just that circa 1941

Horseshoe theory posted:

Given the German military's history, it sounds like par for the course, actually.

this is like when the British had a huge leg-up in decrypting Enigma messages by assuming that the first two characters of every transmission was "HH"

except, you know, worse

Fell Mood
Jul 2, 2022

A terrible Fell look!
Imagine a factory owner in Russia or China telling the government "That order you put in is going to be late and cost over runs means you owe us 4 times more than what we agreed to. Actually just forget about it. We're not doing it unless you place a bigger order".

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


msteams war crime meeting invite

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Fell Mood posted:

Imagine a factory owner in Russia or China telling the government "That order you put in is going to be late and cost over runs means you owe us 4 times more than what we agreed to. Actually just forget about it. We're not doing it unless you place a bigger order".

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005


If it was the 1618 Defenestration of Prague, they would have been saved by :nexus:.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

I didn’t realize the Germans admitted that call was real. One step closer to WW3, I guess.

Since one of the people recorded was at the Singapore Airshow, security is going to be insane at the trade shows this year.

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1764408584438227315?s=20

Aren't the Brits operating storm shadows or some long range missiles that have been used to hit Russians on Russian soil

That seems insane to me. Can you imagine someone doing that to the United states

Owlbear Camus
Jan 3, 2013

Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?



mila kunis posted:

Aren't the Brits operating storm shadows or some long range missiles that have been used to hit Russians on Russian soil

That seems insane to me. Can you imagine someone doing that to the United states

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

mila kunis posted:

Aren't the Brits operating storm shadows or some long range missiles that have been used to hit Russians on Russian soil

That seems insane to me. Can you imagine someone doing that to the United states

The Brits are apparently gathering and analyzing the intel, planning the strikes, programming the missiles, supervising them being loaded onto planes, but they are not actually flying the Sukhois, so they probably feel immune from retaliation.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

The Brits are apparently gathering and analyzing the intel, planning the strikes, programming the missiles, supervising them being loaded onto planes, but they are not actually flying the Sukhois, so they probably feel immune from retaliation.

Well, it seems like they're correct on that point. Putin really is a cuck, I feel these assholes wouldn't be playing with fire if they were up against the USSR

HouseofSuren
Feb 5, 2024

by Pragmatica
Israel sending systems to Ukraine, Israel comparing Russia to Hamas is going to be one of those things they don't live to regret.

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-defense-aid-ukraine-russia-putin-united-nations-1874095

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Yeah I don't really get it, because it would be a great opportunity to whack some NATO officers. They're probably staying at the nicest hotel within a short driving distance to the airbase.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/TomFisher37/status/1764427763115569634

selling AND closing the oil reserves

lol

lmao

This is only the Northeast Reserve that was created in response to the Huricane Sandy disaster.

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Mr Hootington posted:

This is only the Northeast Reserve that was created in response to the Huricane Sandy disaster.

Oh well there will never be another hurricane, so full steam ahead

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/TomFisher37/status/1764427763115569634

selling AND closing the oil reserves

lol

lmao

A little further down is a ban on oil sales to China from the SPR.

US funding bill blocks China from buying oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Mr Hootington posted:

This is only the Northeast Reserve that was created in response to the Huricane Sandy disaster.

Zero Hedge was wrong about something? That's crazy!!!

Livo
Dec 31, 2023

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/TomFisher37/status/1764427763115569634

selling AND closing the oil reserves

lol

lmao

Australia signed a deal in 2020 for its own Strategic Oil Reserve except it's located in the US. No, really. It's not like we're an island nation massively dependent on trade. Surely the US wouldn't refuse to give us the oil in a conflict if both countries needed it and a naval blockade occurred? Or if a major disaster occurred and we needed the fuel in a hurry. Or that instead of the 90 day minimum requirement, as of Dec 2022 we only had 59 days stored onshore. We're building a few tanks to hold some extra oil, but not enough currently to hold it all, I believe.

What did the Australian Defence Strategic Review 2023 say about this serious & real fuel security issue? On Page 77, it advises to establish a "whole-of-government Fuel Council with representatives from relevant departments and industry." Whew, we're saved!

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The Russians have been hitting hotels, you routinely get stories from the West complaining about it. Almost certainly, NATO has been taking casualties, it just they don't want to admit it for very clear reasons.

Otherwise, I don't know what some big attack on Kerch would accomplish that the previous ones failed to do. Even if they hit the bridge, it is clearly able to be repaired without too much of an issue, and it doesn't really effect the Russians that considerably. The Russians also have an entire land bridge as well as ferries.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Ardennes posted:

The Russians have been hitting hotels, you routinely get stories from the West complaining about it. Almost certainly, NATO has been taking casualties, it just they don't want to admit it for very clear reasons.

Otherwise, I don't know what some big attack on Kerch would accomplish that the previous ones failed to do. Even if they hit the bridge, it is clearly able to be repaired without too much of an issue, and it doesn't really effect the Russians that considerably. The Russians also have an entire land bridge as well as ferries.

I mean the taurus dudes agree, though they think they could knock the whole thing down with something like 20 of their boys. I think it was 20? Maybe someone later said they could do it with 12? But can they rebuild 20 missiles faster than the Russians can rebuild one bridge?

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

genericnick posted:

I mean the taurus dudes agree, though they think they could knock the whole thing down with something like 20 of their boys. I think it was 20? Maybe someone later said they could do it with 12? But can they rebuild 20 missiles faster than the Russians can rebuild one bridge?

Even if they did, is it even worth it considering the state of the war and that the Russians can rebuild it? If they got all their F-16s in order and fired 12-20 missiles, some would probably get through and hit the bridge, and then...a span of it would have to be shut down for repairs for a while. The bridge is huge and modular, it isn't going anywhere unless you constantly shell it with artillery for weeks. Arguably that was the idea behind the counter-offensive, but that didn't have a hope in hell of succeeding. It isn't going to force the Russians to abandon Crimea, there are still tons of way to access it, and at best you are going to cost them some money while probably cost far more of your own (both much would a F-16/Taurus project in total cost? specially since munitions are probably limited)?

Clearly, someone in DC keeps on hammering away that the bridge is the way to end the war and they seemingly will demand their vassals dump men and equipment to go after it even if the entire strategic situation has shifted.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

FirstnameLastname posted:

when the main source of profit becomes cutting labor and running all things with skeleton crews but there's still just as many people, suddenly even common things become really rare and in short supply its weird how that works and i dont think wewill ever understand it
you get used to it :)

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

Ardennes posted:

Even if they did, is it even worth it considering the state of the war and that the Russians can rebuild it? If they got all their F-16s in order and fired 12-20 missiles, some would probably get through and hit the bridge, and then...a span of it would have to be shut down for repairs for a while. The bridge is huge and modular, it isn't going anywhere unless you constantly shell it with artillery for weeks. Arguably that was the idea behind the counter-offensive, but that didn't have a hope in hell of succeeding. It isn't going to force the Russians to abandon Crimea, there are still tons of way to access it, and at best you are going to cost them some money while probably cost far more of your own (both much would a F-16/Taurus project in total cost? specially since munitions are probably limited)?

Clearly, someone in DC keeps on hammering away that the bridge is the way to end the war and they seemingly will demand their vassals dump men and equipment to go after it even if the entire strategic situation has shifted.

Probably making the Germans blow up the bridge is US way of cutting off more connection between Germany and Russia.

"We want you blow up more Nordstream to show your royalty. Here are a list of dirt we have on you when we monitor your iphone, Scholz."

And i believe Scholz leaked that Brit and French are operating their missiles inside Ukraine, intentionally to snitch on them; also immediately confirmed the zoom call leak to create a scandal themselves so they don't have to go through with the bridge plan.

Now the ball is at Putin's court and see if he will do anything.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

stephenthinkpad posted:

Probably making the Germans blow up the bridge is US way of cutting off more connection between Germany and Russia.

"We want you blow up more Nordstream to show your royalty. Here are a list of dirt we have on you when we monitor your iphone, Scholz."

And i believe Scholz leaked that Brit and French are operating their missiles inside Ukraine, intentionally to snitch on them; also immediately confirmed the zoom call leak to create a scandal themselves so they don't have to go through with the bridge plan.

Now the ball is at Putin's court and see if he will do anything.

Even if the Germans made a go at the bridge...the Russians would probably still them oil and gas in reality. The Russians may not do anything too publicly beyond capitalizing on the land but pushing more in the south, forcing the Ukrainians to force more men into fields for a doomed planned that isn't going to account for much. In addition, the West would devote its F-16s and likely a ton of missiles for strikes that in reality, have marginal strategic value.

Also, it will probably be a shot in the arm of the German opposition.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
So the Turus missile has to be launched from F16? How many F16 do you need to launch 20 missiles?

That seems like a big show piece operation for the F16 and Biden.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

stephenthinkpad posted:

So the Turus missile has to be launched from F16? How many F16 do you need to launch 20 missiles?

That seems like a big show piece operation for the F16 and Biden.

They talked about it in the call and it would take 8 months or so to get a Taurus on an F-16 and the Ukrainian pilots trained for it. There are a max of 7 hardpoints on an f-16 that you could use with a missile of that size, but even that is without drop tanks and it is going to make the craft pretty heavy (and the F-16 would only have 2 wing missiles for defense). So maybe 3-4 with 2 drop tanks and one 1-2 AMRAAMs.

They would probably need at least 5-6 f-16s for a strike. Of those that are fired, probably 3-5 of them would be able to hit a larger target, like a bridge span with possibly 1 at best hitting a pylon (it is a very small target for such a missile).

The Germans admitted that even if they got a lucky hit on a pylon it probably wouldn't be enough to take it out of commission, they could damage one of the road spans enough to probably force repairs or replacements for 2 months or so. That said, the Russians are probably going to be launching a high number of counter-strikes as well. Basically, the Germans would probably be able to take out a least a couple road portions (there are 2 on either side) or/and maybe hit one of the rail lines hard enough to take it out if they were putting 100 missiles into it and a couple squadrons of F-16s (both which would take some attrition).

The problem with fully severing the bridge (at least without an attack from another direction) is that the northern rail line is going to make it difficult to hit the southern rail line because of its size and proximity to each other, and also of course, because of the Russians being able to repair the bridge.

Then you have the issue of a bunch of road connections between Crimea and the mainland (that can be supplemented with pontoon bridges), a back-up rail line that bypasses Ukrainian positions, and ferries.

It seems like doomed Dnieper bridgehead and the "ecocide" of the area was an attempt to open up eastern Kherson to attack and to sever those connections, in reality it just probably got hundreds of Ukrainians killed for little purpose. The counter-offensive had a similar reason/result.

Basically, everything Ukraine/NATO has been doing in the south is about Crimea. It is a political football in Ukrainian politics across the 2000s, then the Russians took it in 2014, and now NATO is trying desperately to "get it back" under their control. It is just all the resources devoted to it have been completely wasted.

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Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

but also there's a black powder shortage too.

Saluting blanks need black powder and wax, which should be easy, but supply has been tight for at least two years.

The American factory reopened I think late last year so this may improve

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