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Xiahou Dun posted:Find me a poll that has been predictive this far out. All I have to go off of are the polls that exist right now and the aggregates, and they are not something anyone who supports Biden should be ignoring right now.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:09
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/02/29/adam-schiff-katie-porter-steve-garvey-california-senate-race/quote:Days before the all-party primary for the U.S. Senate seat the late Dianne Feinstein held for decades, Democratic front-runner Adam Schiff and his allies are making an unusual gambit: spending a staggering $11.2 million elevating a Republican rival in hopes of boxing out his main intraparty opponent from the November ballot. I'm not a big fan of Schiff gaming the jungle primary system to promote his Republican opponent. I know its California and all, but it would be safer to have no Republicans on the ballot for Senate encouraging more Republican voters to come out.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:10
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Nucleic Acids posted:All I have to go off of are the polls that exist right now and the aggregates, and they are not something anyone who supports Biden should be ignoring right now. Yes, the meaningless ones. I'm not even a Biden supporter. I just live in reality.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:11
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It's been pointed out before but the Democrats being able to say "we made a good-faith attempt to fix the border and Republicans blocked it" is a huge gift. It's 100% true and verifiable and also doesn't require them to say what their plan actually was, or prove it would have been effective. Kalli posted:Speaking of Israel, turns out it hasn't been 2 weapon shipments Joe bypassed congress on, it's been over a hundred: Military aid structuring, I love it
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Mar 6, 2024 17:11
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zoux posted:One way to gauge the accuracy of the polls would be to look at Trump's predicted vote share in polling vs his actual vote share in primaries. The most likely answer would seem to be an enthusiasm gap between reported Trump voters and the actual reality of taking time to go to the polls and do it. That is people who were excited to vote for Trump before, and did so, and who report intending to vote may not actually be doing so this go round.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:11
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Kalli posted:Speaking of Israel, turns out it hasn't been 2 weapon shipments Joe bypassed congress on, it's been over a hundred: Things like will only continue to be a problem for him as the election approaches.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:12
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Nucleic Acids posted:All I have to go off of are the polls that exist right now and the aggregates, and they are not something anyone who supports Biden should be ignoring right now. Yeah, I think this is fair. Polls this far out are always unreliable but nobody goes around recalibrating polls when their guy is winning them.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:13
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gurragadon posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/02/29/adam-schiff-katie-porter-steve-garvey-california-senate-race/ California has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1988, and the last Senate election went 60-40 to the Dem. I don’t think there’s anything to worry about.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:13
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Nucleic Acids posted:All I have to go off of are the polls that exist right now and the aggregates, and they are not something anyone who supports Biden should be ignoring right now. hey remember in 2016 when polls around this time of year said trump wouldn't be president? haha yeah (the moral of this post is that polls this early in the cycle (arguably before the cycle has even started) mean absolutely gently caress all and always have)
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Mar 6, 2024 17:15
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Ogmius815 posted:You forgot to use the nested parenthesis. What a dogshit post.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:17
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Nucleic Acids posted:To quote another goon, saying things over and over again doesn’t make it true. Make what true? Polls aren't votes. quote:None that is argument in favor of what Biden is doing, I'm not arguing in favor of what Biden is doing. I'm pointing out that you're demonstrably wrong when saying that those three things can be expected to lose him an election. They were already the status quo for him in 2020 and for anyone who cares enough to dislike him for it, Trump is even worse. quote:and as especially regards his open support of genocide, is not helping him, as the Uncommitted votes in Michigan and Minnesota show. Biden won Michigan by 55,000 more votes than there are "uncommitted" votes, where Democrats *now* control every branch of government and both US Senate seats. He won Minnesota by 188,000 more votes than there were protest votes. There is, on top of this fact, no way to know, let alone confirm, that any of these protest voters voted at all in 2020. Nucleic Acids posted:Things like will only continue to be a problem for him as the election approaches. They weren't a problem for him when the last election approached.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:19
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Kith posted:hey remember in 2016 when polls around this time of year said trump wouldn't be president? haha yeah https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1764682684280783232 But nothing can change of course between now and then. Well I guess that Biden could use his insane warchest against the broke rear end Republican party to try and influence voters? https://twitter.com/politico/status/1765317914003906885 quote:An estimated $2.7 billion is expected to be spent just on presidential campaign advertising this cycle. Pro-Biden super PACs Future Forward and American Bridge already have committed to a blizzard of ads, with $250 million and $200 million in spending respectively, as Democrats prepare an onslaught of ads to turn voters’ attention away from Biden’s age and remind them of Trump’s chaotic first term. In a memo released Wednesday morning, the Biden campaign said that groups allied with it had committed to spending more than $700 million to help defeat Trump.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:20
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I mean just glancing at the national polling from 2020, January-April the vast majority show Biden with a 4-8 point lead over Trump nationally and that held up pretty well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election The 2016 polls are harder to judge because at this point it was a 4 way race vs a 2 way and Kasich was fairly consistently beating Hill dawg, though there's a handful that had any R but Trump over her. I'm seeing on the wiki page: 3/3-3/6 - NBC/WSJ Hill + 13 ABC/WAPO Hill + 9 2/29-3/1 Ramussen Hill + 5 2/24-2/27 CNN/ORC Hill +8 2/15-2/17 Fox Hill +5 2/11-2/15 Suffolk/USA Today Trump +1 Kalli fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 17:22
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Can't wait for the constant supercuts of J6 during every college football game commercial break here in Ohio.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:22
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Polls not being predictive this far out isn't the same as them being meaningless. You can use polling data to (especially issue polling) determine many specific things even if head-to-head polling is not predictive. We know the election will be close. We know that the popular vote margin would be somewhere between Biden -5.5% and Biden +4.5% if the election were held today and there was 100% turnout among registered voters. We know that Biden is probably behind by roughly 2.2% nationally right now if the election were held today with 100% turnout among registered voters. We know that the biggest issues hurting Biden right now are immigration, his age, and grocery store prices. The election isn't today and turnout won't be 100% of registered voters, so the head-to-head figures don't really tell us anything from a predictive standpoint. But, that doesn't mean all polling is totally meaningless. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 17:23
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Xombie posted:Can't wait for the constant supercuts of J6 during every college football game commercial break here in Ohio. its gonna be that and abortion and whatever insane poo poo trump has said or done and god knows what other hosed up poo poo the GOP tries then.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:23
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Polls not being predictive this far out isn't the same as them being meaningless. This translates to like a 300 vote range in the electoral college. I would say that’s pretty meaningless.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:28
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I am 100% confident in my prediction that Biden will either win or lose the election
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Mar 6, 2024 17:29
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Seph posted:This translates to like a 300 vote range in the electoral college. I would say that’s pretty meaningless. Right. That is why the last sentence is: quote:The election isn't today and turnout won't be 100% of registered voters, so the head-to-head figures don't really tell us anything from a predictive standpoint.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:31
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 Trump, ever gracious in victory, continues his bromides against a candidate who performed relatively well against him and whose voters say by supermajority margins they will never vote for Trump. "My opponents supporters are not allowed to vote for me" is an interesting electoral strategy. Joe is taking the opposite approach https://twitter.com/BrookeGoren/status/1765396581639971169 zoux fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 17:32
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haveblue posted:I am 100% confident in my prediction that Biden will either win or lose the election The foolish haveblue loses the toxx when the election ends up 269-269
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Mar 6, 2024 17:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Right. That is why the last sentence is: You were trying to make some distinction between predictive and meaningless, but I am saying they are both non predictive and meaningless this far out. Effectively saying “the election could go either way” is a meaningless conclusion. This is further exacerbated by the abysmal performance polls have had during the primary cycle. Just look at the polling averages vs actual votes this cycle - they are generally off by double digit percentages. There is nothing to be gained by looking at polls right now.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:39
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Seph posted:You were trying to make some distinction between predictive and meaningless, but I am saying they are both non predictive and meaningless this far out. Effectively saying “the election could go either way” is a meaningless conclusion. The main point was just that issue polling is useful and polling to get current relative standing provides some information, even if it doesn't have any more predictive power of the election results right now than a coin flip. There's a difference between polling being non-predictive right now vs. all polling being meaningless right now.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:43
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Xiahou Dun posted:Yes, the meaningless ones. I would put myself into the "I don't love Biden, but he's sure as poo poo better than the alternative." I really hope this is the last gasp of the Boomer Generation of presidents. Its time for someone born in the 60s or 70s to take over.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:54
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Nucleic Acids posted:Things like will only continue to be a problem for him as the election approaches. Cimber posted:I would put myself into the "I don't love Biden, but he's sure as poo poo better than the alternative." Crows Turn Off fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 17:54
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Liberty University: It's as bad as you think. https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1765076968159232428 I wonder what crimes quote:The U.S. Department of Education said it identified numerous cases that resulted in the misclassification or underreporting of crimes. And there were several incidents that the university determined to be unfounded, without evidence the initial report was false. Luckily, and I'm not being at all sarcastic here, Liberty will see a dramatic drop off in enrollment after they get beat 75-0 by an SEC team in the first round of the CFB playoffs next year.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:54
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Cimber posted:I would put myself into the "I don't love Biden, but he's sure as poo poo better than the alternative." Biden is actually too old to even be a Boomer, he's a member of the Silent Generation (our first and only Silent Generation president, in fact) Uncle Boogeyman fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 17:56
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Nucleic Acids posted:All I have to go off of are the polls that exist right now and the aggregates, and they are not something anyone who supports Biden should be ignoring right now. Actually, you have other things you can look at, such as actual election results. There is a strong correlation between special election results and the subsequent general election results, especially when the swing is large (like Democrats getting +11 last year). And before you say "Gaza," note that the Democrats won big a month after the Gaza campaign started last year. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...six-years-later https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703 Republicans lost in 2022 with the highest inflation of my lifetime, alleged roving gangs committing crimes in the cities, and new stock market lows. Democrats had one of the best performances in the midterms as incumbents for a long time. How the gently caress are Republicans going to get a better environment than that in 2024, with Trump now under 4 indictments and owing money for fraud and rape, no less? You can also see actual election results right now in which Trump is underperforming his primary polls and Biden overperforming. Regarding polls this far out, I'll just keep repeating myself here: I will keep saying this to everyone who will listen: the polls are still not predictive yet and are literal coin flips. They start to get marginally predictive around mid-April, not now, and their predictive power will increase very slowly but linearly until election day. https://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/its_way_too_early_for_2016_polls_to_be_predictive.php quote:These matchups may be fun to speculate about, but the evidence suggests that even national trial heat polls conducted this far in advance of a presidential election are completely uninformative about its outcome. (Individual state trial heats are likely to be even less useful.) In their book The Timeline of Presidential Elections, the political scientists Christopher Wlezien and Robert Erikson find that polls conducted even 300 days before an election have virtually no predictive power; their forecasting power comes later in a campaign:  Clinton was leading Trump by around 10 points in the summer of 2016 during which I remember reading The Economist with a "meltdown" cover story with Trump melting down. small butter fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 17:57
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zoux posted:Liberty University: It's as bad as you think. yeah apperently they have been doing badly since the jerry fallwell the elder ghoul died and the younger one just hosed around and did gross stuff and let it go to even more poo poo. maybe it will shutdown.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:01
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Cimber posted:I would put myself into the "I don't love Biden, but he's sure as poo poo better than the alternative." You're preaching to the choir, hoss. I'm honestly considering running locally. Or at least, I am until I remember that I'm 1) broke and 2) comically unelectable.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:02
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Given: - Trump's indictments - Republicans losing since 2017 - GOP cash problems - GOP state party problems in swing states - the NYT poll that people are worried about showing the impossible with Trump swinging +10 with women vs 2020 and being tied with Biden post Dobbs - Markets making new highs - Crime coming way down - People getting more used to these new high prices (which were a shock in 2022 but Rs still lost) - Republicans running a loser Biden will comfortably beat his 2020 results.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:02
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah apperently they have been doing badly since the jerry fallwell the elder ghoul died and the younger one just hosed around and did gross stuff and let it go to even more poo poo. maybe it will shutdown. It's a fake college intended to showcase how education can be right-wing. It has an admit rate of 99.3 percent.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:03
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zoux posted:It's a fake college intended to showcase how education can be right-wing. It has an admit rate of 99.3 percent. yeah i remember my dad telling me some distant work colliege or friend or something had a kid going there and i just laughed, good luck getting any job with that diploma outside the hive.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:05
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small butter posted:Actually, you have other things you can look at, such as actual election results. There is a strong correlation between special election results and the subsequent general election results, especially when the swing is large (like Democrats getting +11 last year). And before you say "Gaza," note that the Democrats won big a month after the Gaza campaign started last year. Even ignoring the time element of predictive value for a second, this is implicitly assuming that polls in 2024 are as good at capturing the *current state* as they were in 2016. However, as we’ve seen this primary cycle they are actually worse than in 2016. So the base state is even worse than what your graph is showing.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:05
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Xiahou Dun posted:You're preaching to the choir, hoss. Politics is loving nasty. A guy i work with was running for school board in his town, and the poo poo that happened to him was amazingly awful. People showing up at his door late at night to yell at him, people calling him at all hours. Don't even ask about social media. It got so bad he had to sit with his daughter at the bus stop and watch her get on the school bus because his 5th grade daughter was catching poo poo waiting for the bus. Mind you, he is a Jewish Democrat running in a pretty MAGA part of Long Island, but still, it was awful. He ended up saying 'gently caress this' and withdrawing from the race. For school board.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:05
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah i remember my dad telling me some distant work colliege or friend or something had a kid going there and i just laughed, good luck getting any job with that diploma outside the hive. Isn't that sort of the point? It's a pipeline, turning out a bunch of kids who are unemployable outside the religious right is a great way to keep the religious right staffed up
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Mar 6, 2024 18:08
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah apperently they have been doing badly since the jerry fallwell the elder ghoul died and the younger one just hosed around and did gross stuff and let it go to even more poo poo. maybe it will shutdown. It’s not just going to shut down. It has a listed enrollment of close to 50k. Even if they’re all remote that’s still a ton of people and money. Little homeschooled religious eichmanns have to get their business degrees from somewhere.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:08
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haveblue posted:Isn't that sort of the point? It's a pipeline, turning out a bunch of kids who are unemployable outside the religious right is a great way to keep the religious right staffed up depresingly yeah.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:09
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Cimber posted:Politics is loving nasty. A guy i work with was running for school board in his town, and the poo poo that happened to him was amazingly awful. People showing up at his door late at night to yell at him, people calling him at all hours. Don't even ask about social media. It got so bad he had to sit with his daughter at the bus stop and watch her get on the school bus because his 5th grade daughter was catching poo poo waiting for the bus. When you see someone complaining that "the DNC chose" to let a race in some blood red district go unopposed, it's always because no individual candidate in that district stepped up to take one for the team, and this is why. Remember that running for Congress requires not only exposing yourself to that on a larger scale but typically putting a whole lot more of your own time/money into campaigning than a local school board.
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Mar 6, 2024 18:14
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Killer robot posted:When you see someone complaining that "the DNC chose" to let a race in some blood red district go unopposed, it's always because no individual candidate in that district stepped up to take one for the team, and this is why. Remember that running for Congress requires not only exposing yourself to that on a larger scale but typically putting a whole lot more of your own time/money into campaigning than a local school board. The story of the guy who ran against Marjorie Taylor Green in 2020 breaks my heart. He stepped up and it ruined his life. https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/why-marjorie-taylor-greenes-opponent-quit-the-house-race/E3TYSMAAPRDUPPB6F3BBQAFCME/ EDIT: The Washington Post piece is better, but behind a paywall. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/17/kevin-van-ausdal-qanon-marjorie-greene-georgia/?arc404=true
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