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Democrats should lie more to win IMO
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Mar 6, 2024 21:24
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:capitalizing "great republican party" is weird when its already the gop. he's a weird dude, i'm realizing he's always trying to rebrand poo poo to his own personal version so he can tell when someone is quoting him and not someone else. reminder he's so utterly narcissistic that he interrupted an interview to confirm that the interviewer was talking about his businesses specifically
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Mar 6, 2024 21:24
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Kalli posted:Hard to shake the feeling that the southern governors read the temperature correctly and that shipping a bunch of people up north won. The media was more then happy to lean into people's fears, and combine that with the particular say, monstrosity that the NYPD / mayor / governor have gone for, seems to have successfully moved the needle. I hate to say it, but I think bussing those migrants up north was a genius move on the right wing's part because it brought out a lot of ugly discontent in the Northeast and other blue states. The House and Senate candidates and even the state Governor and AG stage are all having to deal with that. Fear helps push people toward right wing messaging. I suspect if people felt more economically secure, attitudes towards immigration would soften a bit. I think a lot of people, regardless of skin color, don't like the idea of new "competition" coming in even if that idea is pretty irrational and is not backed up with real data.
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Mar 6, 2024 21:25
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All northern white liberals had to do was not be cowardly racists, but welp
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Mar 6, 2024 21:30
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Jaxyon posted:All northern white liberals had to do was not be cowardly racists, but welp Eric Adams isn't white. More substantively, at least Maura Healey said that administration should expedite work petitions so they can find places for people to work legally. Apparently, a hospital in the North Shore of MA is now fully staffed thanks to the migrants. And I thought it was a crappy play anyways in the sense that coastal cities have been hosting immigrants for a long time. The problem of course is we don't have enough housing in general and migrants are getting unfairly blamed.
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Mar 6, 2024 21:31
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Mooseontheloose posted:Eric Adams isn't white. he is a cop though.
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Mar 6, 2024 21:34
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Mooseontheloose posted:Eric Adams isn't white. So? I'm sure not all of the voters are white either. Doesn't change the point.
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Mar 6, 2024 21:49
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Which is gobsmacking because "the border" is just racism rebranded. Every actual study or analysis of immigration ever shows a massive net benefit to society from immigrants and a massive problem from cutting off Immigration. It's even true of the goddam Roman Empire. (https://acoup.blog/2021/07/16/collections-the-queens-latin-or-who-were-the-romans-part-iii-bigotry-and-diversity-at-rome/ ) Especially in my area housing prices are the number one social problem, and I don't see how immigration wouldn't in practice exacerbate the issue. That is to say, I feel fighting this issue is harder than you are portraying it to be. I'd be very interested in the simple absolute truthful arguments one could make to support the idea that immigration is necessarily good, because I would like to help spread that idea as much as I can.
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Mar 6, 2024 21:58
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Immigration is not the driver for real estate prices.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:02
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Eiba posted:This is a point I intuitively agree on, but last time I brought it up to someone in real life they said "what about housing prices" and I didn't have a good response. The easy counter is "who do you think is building any new houses in your area?" Because that labor is not done by citizens. If you want more, cheaper housing, you want more immigration. Illegal immigrants are not competing to buy houses. They are building them.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:05
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Which is gobsmacking because "the border" is just racism rebranded. Every actual study or analysis of immigration ever shows a massive net benefit to society from immigrants and a massive problem from cutting off Immigration. It's even true of the goddam Roman Empire. (https://acoup.blog/2021/07/16/collections-the-queens-latin-or-who-were-the-romans-part-iii-bigotry-and-diversity-at-rome/ ) This is what I was getting at. The comment I was replying to was implying being right wing on border stuff could cost Biden the election. Everything I've seen says that most people who strongly object to what he's doing aren't doing so from the left. I wish they were, but the public really sucks on this issue. Blue Footed Booby fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 22:06
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Blue Footed Booby posted:This is what I was getting at. The comment I was replying to was implying being right wing on border stuff could cost Biden the election. Everything I've seen says that most people who strongly object to what he's doing aren't doing so from the left. I thought there was a good amount of outrage from the left on what he was willing to accept on the border deal before Trump scuttled it. It's not easy to sell capacity increases for helping litigate and resolve asylum and other applications and clear up backlogs as a big victory, so I get it.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:08
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Democrats completely ceded the immigration messaging to the right and they have no one to blame for that but themselves. They were clearly hoping to be able to ignore it and it would work it's way out in its own. Years of red states bussing migrants to blue cities and right wing media screaming at the top of their lungs about immigration and not so much as a peep from the Democrats. They did not and do not have a immigration message of their own.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:12
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Mustang posted:Democrats completely ceded the immigration messaging to the right and they have no one to blame for that but themselves. They were clearly hoping to be able to ignore it and it would work it's way out in its own. Like many things, the minute you message for one part of the Democratic coalition, you piss off another part. Or you could just stand up for what's right and makes sense, but no one rewards you for that. :p
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Mar 6, 2024 22:14
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I think it's hard for democrats to realize that it's possible to actually care about "immigration" to the point that it impacts your vote. It's such an obvious boogeyman issue it's difficult to take seriously. Are the evil immigrants going to sneak into your neighborhood and . . . Sell you tacos I guess? Build you a house and do the landscaping? Why are.you scared of and/or angry about Dora the Explorer (answer without saying anything racist)
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Mar 6, 2024 22:29
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I don't think Democrats are good at messaging anything. The most coherent one is "at least we're better than Republicans!". Sad that the only prominent Democrat that I've seen make a point of calling out red states targeting their LGBTQ communities is Gavin loving Newsome. They couldn't message their way out of a paper bag if their lives depended on it.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:35
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Jaxyon posted:All northern white liberals had to do was not be cowardly racists, but welp They aren't the ones opposing immigration, there are still moderates and conservatives in blue states.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:36
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Mustang posted:Democrats completely ceded the immigration messaging to the right and they have no one to blame for that but themselves. They were clearly hoping to be able to ignore it and it would work it's way out in its own. I want to be clear: you're taking the position that the Democrats, writ large, and the Biden administration in specific, haven't had messaging or policy on immigration?
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Mar 6, 2024 22:41
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The easy counter is "who do you think is building any new houses in your area?" Because that labor is not done by citizens. If you want more, cheaper housing, you want more immigration. Illegal immigrants are not competing to buy houses. They are building them. My area is a pretty extreme example, but increased housing prices are an issue in a lot of places, and I don't think the cost of construction labor is ever the driving reason. I feel like there's an obvious potential solution, but as long as the obvious solution to the housing crisis is clearly not going to happen, it seems like immigration will make that situation worse. "If things were sane, immigration would always be a net positive," is a hypothetical I can't really sell considering things are manifestly not sane and won't be done well most of the time. "Considering we're run by people who would do things badly, immigration is going to hurt," is the kind of common sense position I would like to be able to better dispute. Discendo Vox posted:Immigration is not the driver for real estate prices.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:42
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Eiba posted:"If things were sane, immigration would always be a net positive," is a hypothetical I can't really sell considering things are manifestly not sane and won't be done well most of the time. "Considering we're run by people who would do things badly, immigration is going to hurt," is the kind of common sense position I would like to be able to better dispute. The answer is to not concede the idea that you must be run by people who do things badly.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:44
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zoux posted:Josh Stein is pretty popular then? He’s made all the right moves political to be a middle of the road, bland, white guy democrat. He also worked with cooper who is insanely popular and will presumably be campaigning for him. He’s received a gift running against this lunatic. Gonna be interesting to see how a Jewish guy runs against someone who thinks the Holocaust was a hoax. And who also wants to overturn the 19th amendment. https://x.com/jbendery/status/1765494719772033443?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA This guy got Facebook famous for saying the craziest poo poo he could and there’s going to be tons more coming out as the election draws near.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:03
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Discendo Vox posted:Immigration is not the driver for real estate prices. Yeah that is just a crazy connection to make & believe in. "We're too crowded! They'll take our houses!" I'm looking around upstate NY and I gotta say: there is a lot of room up here. Build a few hundred thousand homes anywhere you want.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:04
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Eric Cantonese posted:Like many things, the minute you message for one part of the Democratic coalition, you piss off another part. Let's dig a little deeper into that, though: which parts of the Democratic coalition would they piss off by having a clearly-stated, more humane policy towards immigration and the border? Would they piss off those parts so much that they wouldn't vote for them in the upcoming election? Polls suggest, shockingly, that it's mainly Republicans who are getting whipped up into a frenzy over immigration as a major crisis: (Gallup) quote:Republicans typically are the subgroup most likely to name immigration as the most important problem, and they are largely responsible for the increase in mentions this month. Currently, 57% of Republicans, up from 37% in January, say immigration is the top problem. Independents show a modest uptick, from 16% in January to 22% now, while there has been no meaningful change among Democrats (9% in January and 10% in February). Pew: quote:Between 2021 and 2022, the share of Republicans citing immigration as a top policy priority rose sharply, from 39% to 67%. This begs the question, who is Biden hoping to win by taking a right-wing line on immigration and the border? And if he manages to attract voters because of his stance on this issue, will it be enough to cover for the voters that he loses because of it (young voters, for example)?
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Mar 6, 2024 23:07
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Mustang posted:Democrats completely ceded the immigration messaging to the right and they have no one to blame for that but themselves. They were clearly hoping to be able to ignore it and it would work it's way out in its own. Dems are just awful at messaging and have been for my entire lifetime In the 90s they had success by being GOP lite but once Clinton was gone that stopped working
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Mar 6, 2024 23:09
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Xiahou Dun posted:Polls don't have any predictive effect this far out and are just random noise at this point in an election. This has been pointed out many times. I was able to find polling average graphs since 2000. Basically all the recent ones fell into 2 categories: 1. Some elections are very stable and the results from March are basically the same as the results from October. 2. Some start out with a big lead for one candidate, which narrows but they stay ahead. Bush vs Kerry was the only exception since 2000. Bush started well behind and finished decently ahead. I found a site which shows June polls to actual results before 2000. Putting it together, since 1960, the republican has improved from June to actual 12 times and the Democrats only four times. Wide races tend to close and close races tend to stay close. This year appears to be close, so we can expect it to stay close more likely than not. The June leader lost 6 times out of 16, so that gives you some indication of unreliability, too. But they may be unreliable in a predictable way, right? But then, all of this is just about national popular vote polling and I have no idea about state polls. I'd love to see other sources on the issue if you have any! Jimbozig fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 23:18
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FizFashizzle posted:He’s made all the right moves political to be a middle of the road, bland, white guy democrat. He also worked with cooper who is insanely popular and will presumably be campaigning for him. He’s received a gift running against this lunatic. Gonna be interesting to see how a Jewish guy runs against someone who thinks the Holocaust was a hoax. yeah there is gonna be god knows what comes out about him closer to the election. i am sure the dems and others have been sitting on alot of finds.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:20
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apparently the ridiculous 1 week cr really was enough time, the house has passed the first budget billquote:The House on Wednesday approved $459 billion in new government spending, a crucial step toward funding federal agencies for the next six months and preventing a partial shutdown this weekend. lol, i didn't realize that the bills would only get us to the end of fy2024, it doesn't even get us to november! what an incredibly stupid government
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Mar 6, 2024 23:21
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Discendo Vox posted:I want to be clear: you're taking the position that the Democrats, writ large, and the Biden administration in specific, haven't had messaging or policy on immigration? I didn't say anything about policy. They are clearly failing to message on this issue or they wouldn't have felt like they needed to move to the right in response. And it's not just immigration they suck at messaging on. Do you think these politically ignorant swing voters with incoherent political beliefs are going to take the time to read up on Democratic policy proposals? The people that spend time doing that don't need convincing. Republicans have no problem framing issues in an easy to remember way that's echoed by right leaning people from across the country.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:24
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mdemone posted:Yeah that is just a crazy connection to make & believe in. Nobody wants to live there though, including immigrants.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:29
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Mustang posted:I didn't say anything about policy. They are clearly failing to message on this issue or they wouldn't have felt like they needed to move to the right in response. So, again, are you taking the position that the Democrats aren't "messaging" on immigration? Why would the belief that they have failed to "message" lead to the assumption that they are moving to the right? Do you even understand where Democratic policy proposals are relative to the Republicans? I promise you, there has been plenty of Democratic "messaging" on immigration, in addition to actual policy. The messaging, like the policy, tends to be reflective of actual functions of reality, as well as the views of their constituents. That it does not reflect the continuously undefined policy you want does not mean they have not done it, and the fact that it is not mediated in a way you find satisfying is not a fault automatically attributable to "the Democrats". Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 23:33
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Discendo Vox posted:So, again, are you taking the position that the Democrats aren't "messaging" on immigration? Why would the belief that they have failed to "message" lead to the assumption that they are moving to the right? Do you even understand where Democratic policy proposals are relative to the Republicans? What about where democrats are relative to where they were? That's what I understand moving to the right to mean.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:39
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mobby_6kl posted:Nobody wants to live there though, including immigrants. I just drove through upstate New York and Vermont and it's absolutely beautiful and would be a lovely place to live with some investment. Some towns there looked lovely and some looked like depressed dumps. You could put money into fixing up the dumps. Too bad the US government doesn't do that sort of thing.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:40
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I don't think any amount of messaging can work. People get their opinions formed based on information bubbles and outrage bait from your social media of choice; John Oliver and Jon Stewart and Colbert among some of the major liberal voices have debunked so many right wing lies and millions still march happily to pull the lever for R policies and willfully disbelieve any information or facts to the contrary. Whether its leftist youtubers, influences, the government via debates and official statements; the only people left to be convinced are the most painfully misinformation and willfully ignorant people on the face of the planet that have ever existed in all of human history; trying to blame the democrats is like blaming the coast guard for not yelling warnings hard enough when a hurricane rolls in despite all the warnings and official statements through the usual channels they already use that you still choose to ignore. There is literally no winning, only mitigation; and hoping the people who came to their pre-existing conclusions did so on the right side of the historical fence.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:48
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Olga Gurlukovich posted:What about where democrats are relative to where they were? That's what I understand moving to the right to mean. It's a claim that only makes sense if you are ignoring actual changes in facts regarding immigration programs, congressional control, or constituent views to focus entirely on a wholly undefined "messaging" opposed to an undefined preferred position. To recap, again: Leon provided a summary of problems with the current asylum policy here: Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The border is pretty much boned until we fix the legal immigration process or people stop wanting to come to America. You can try to militarize the border and that might make it more orderly, but it is just going to result in the pre-2016 status quo of people sneaking across en masse instead of turning themselves in at the border - which is worse both in terms of the journey for the people and also likely to result in more illegal immigrants untracked and unsupported in the U.S. for the people who want to keep them out. Although, I guess it would be a success of stopping videos of huge amounts of people turning themselves in at border crossings if that was your goal. And discusses how there are perverse incentives in that system here: Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They technically do. The people claiming asylum, whether they are being detained directly, put up in hotels, or placed with a sponsor, all get housing. Even the people being detained can leave and be deported whenever they want, but they are there voluntarily to try and wait out the process. and Main Paineframe discussed actual burdens on the extant system here: Main Paineframe posted:The border authorities really are getting overwhelmed, though. That's why his "shut down the border" offer is paired with literally doubling the current asylum officer workforce and increase the number of immigration judges by about 50%, so they can start whittling down the ~1 million pending asylum applications still in the queue and clear the massive years-long immigration court backlog. Especially since polls are showing that voters think immigration is one of the most important issues to them coming into this election. An insistence that the party is "moving to the right" and "failing to message" that is detached from, at a minimum, the actual reality of the policy subject, and the actual policies being proposed, and the actual messaging occurring around these policies, is defined entirely by opposition, embracing the counterpoint framing it pretends to object to. And by demanding a discussion in terms of "moving" and "messaging" and "losing," you obligate us to re-explain the universe to you each and every time.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:48
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. Instead, we just kind of hobble along with an outdated system and every attempt to update it since 1987 (37 years ago!!!) has failed.
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Discendo Vox posted:It's a claim that only makes sense if you are ignoring actual changes in facts regarding immigration programs, congressional control, or constituent views to focus entirely on a wholly undefined "messaging" opposed to an undefined preferred position. To recap, again: It sounds like they are in fact moving to the right, and you guys are just saying they're doing it for good reasons, which you frame as "actual reality" (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 6, 2024 23:55
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mobby_6kl posted:Nobody wants to live there though, including immigrants. Give it twenty years.
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Mar 7, 2024 00:03
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Olga Gurlukovich posted:It sounds like they are in fact moving to the right, and you guys are just saying they're doing it for good reasons, which you frame as "actual reality" You have yet to convince me that you know much of anything about Biden administration border policy and messaging, tbh. Essentially nothing in the post you're responding to consists of moving to the right - the summaries there, to extremely sloppily paraphrase, consist of "by hook or crook get more resources to process migrants" and "use the asylum system as a dumb clunky workaround to let people in because anything else is hard and requires significant legislative action in an environment where Democratic majorities have been slim to nonexistent". If you're parsing that as moving to the right I think you're looking for what you want to see. Here's a couple bullet points of Biden admin immigration actions on the border, just things off the top of my head: - significant improvement in handling of unaccompanied children over Obama, unimaginable improvement over Trump. I've posted rather a shitload about ORR ongoing stats and efforts in the past, I'm not going to do it again in full detail on the phone to rebut people who aren't even giving an example of D messaging. - huge and ongoing moves to alternatives to detention, which is an absolutely tremendous deal for people awaiting review of their asylum claims and other immigration paperwork - swinging immigration judges back from Sessions' frankly evil interpretation to more generous towards immigrants than Obama - using presidential authority to expand emergency refugee claims about as much as they think they can get away with - humanitarian mitigation and improved processing of refugee camps on the Mexican side of the border, a problem vastly exacerbated by the Trump admin This list is not comprehensive because I'm just tossing off things I happen to recall, but anyone who hasn't heard of any of these might want to consider why that is and how that impacts their feelings about D handling of immigration.
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Mar 7, 2024 00:14
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Majorian posted:This begs the question, who is Biden hoping to win by taking a right-wing line on immigration and the border? And if he manages to attract voters because of his stance on this issue, will it be enough to cover for the voters that he loses because of it (young voters, for example)? This is the gambit Dems take every time on every issue.
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Mar 7, 2024 00:15
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Discendo Vox posted:The answer is to not concede the idea that you must be run by people who do things badly. Basically it's no longer a simple argument that immigration is good if we need to say that immigration will be good if only we do things very differently. The way things are done has inertia and immigration is (perceived as) an immediate issue. If services are strained due to a combination of immigration and mismanagement, it's going to be a lot easier to imagine ways of stopping immigration than ways of stopping mismanagement. And we're still talking about messaging, right? I kind of take issue with the idea that immigration wouldn't bother people so universally if Democrats hadn't dropped the ball on messaging. I'm not sure the Democrats have ever had the combination of power and political will to set things up for immigration to be painless. And so immigration will be painful for some people, in fact. And so people are going to view immigration as a problem. I don't think there's anything that could have just been said to fix that. At least that's the impression I'm getting when I try to take your position and present the idea that immigration is always a net positive to "liberal" well meaning people who are nevertheless receptive to the conventional wisdom that immigration is a big problem. What I'd ideally like here is not to argue that you are wrong, but to be provided with better rhetorical tools so that I can defend your position in other contexts.
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Mar 7, 2024 00:17
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In other news, white house fact sheet - a common form of messaging that then serves as a basic chassis to promulgate things to the media and the internet - on drug price reform and such: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...tect-consumers/
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Mar 7, 2024 00:17
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