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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Zat
Jan 16, 2008

They just did it. Sweden is in NATO now.

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steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
We are doomed, the red line has been crossed

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

steinrokkan posted:

We are doomed, the red line has been crossed

again

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day

steinrokkan posted:

We are doomed, the red line has been crossed

someone remind putin that Clancy chat isn't allowed anymore.

Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

NATØ

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

PAPL

Henrik Zetterberg
Dec 7, 2007

I got :tenbux: on a barrage of overnight Russian missile/Shahed strikes in the next 3 days due to the Sweden news.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Mr. Apollo posted:


While Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress continue to block U.S. aid to Ukraine, European countries are scrambling to fill the gap.

I loving love that Forbes is calling them out like that.

Konec Hry
Jul 13, 2005

too much love will kill you

Grimey Drawer

NATÖ :rant:

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

PA-pakti :colbert:

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
OTAN

:quebec:

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
axis of jävel

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

steinrokkan posted:

We are doomed, the red line has been crossed

WILLÖ

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
mal ikke fjenden på væggen, forsøren

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord
I’m gonna go to IKEA this weekend to celebrate the news. :toot:

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
"I likea IKEA"

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
Us NATO-ites are now legally required to defend the spot that Abba stands upon.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Orthanc6 posted:

Us NATO-ites are now legally required to defend the spot that Abba stands upon.

Quite conveniently this May's NATOvision Song Contest is held in Malmö :tinfoil:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Release the Surströmming!!! :rowdytrout:

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Just Another Lurker posted:

Release the Surströmming!!! :rowdytrout:

based on some of the russian field rations we've seen, their infantry might just welcome it as an improvement

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

Dirt5o8 posted:

I loving love that Forbes is calling them out like that.

I wish Biden would call them out like that.

SixFigureSandwich
Oct 30, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Nenonen posted:

Quite conveniently this May's NATOvision Song Contest is held in Malmö :tinfoil:

Italy was robbed

Zopotantor
Feb 24, 2013

...und ist er drin dann lassen wir ihn niemals wieder raus...

Nenonen posted:

"I likea IKEA"

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

buglord posted:

I’m gonna go to IKEA this weekend to celebrate the news. :toot:

The Something Awful Forums > Debate and Discussion > The War in Ukraine CE: Blyat, IKEA joins NATO

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

Ynglaur posted:

The Something Awful Forums > Debate and Discussion > The War in Ukraine CE: Blyat, IKEA joins NATO

TasogareNoKagi
Jul 11, 2013

Ynglaur posted:

The Something Awful Forums > Debate and Discussion > The War in Ukraine CE: Blyat, IKEA joins NATO

Flatpack river boats are already in the mail.

Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...
... gently caress, did I install the deck upside down?

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Volmarias posted:

... gently caress, did I install the deck upside down?

That's the Russian translation... :blyat:

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer
I did a news trawl through German media DIe Zeit:

The German subsidiary of Russian energy corporation Rosneft will remain under state control, but plans for a full government take over are scuttled.

Background: During the short-lived energy crisis at the start of the war, Germany put the German subsidiary of Rosneft under control of a government-set trust company, with possible later plans for a complete takeover, if necessary. Now the owners of the shares on the German refineries have agreed to a deal: They will sell their shares, presumable returning the German refineries back to a German or at least not Russian ownership. Therefore, the trust company will keep working, but Germany will be spared the trauma of government bureaucracy completely running those refineries into the ground.


According to Zeit, a majority of Germans is against Taurus-deliveries, among mounting fears Germany could be dragged into the war.

Is that Scholz laughing I hear? Well, a majority of Germans also believe Putin may target Germany next with espionage attacks, and thinks giving the Bundeswehr a higher budget is OK now, a complete 180° on how Germans have traditionally thought about the military in the recent generation.

Germany being a Democracy, this probably translates into more aid for Ukraine, but no Taurus-missiles. Mot that our right-wing arch conservatives believe in things like Democracy, our conservative opposition is already planning to put another vote on the table, despite a majority of all parties except the Greens and the Clown Party (FDP) being against it. Good luck with that!


The UK puts down some more aid. Promises 10k more drones for Ukraine.

In other news:

-Latvia has begun forcing the first Russians (does that, strictly speaking, did not have legal right to live in Latvia) to leave. In the future, Russians will need to learn Latvian to stay.

-France wants to help Ukraine to expand military production at home. Three French companies will work with Ukrainian companies to expand production of equipment and spare parts in Ukraine. Though thanks to how European procurement works, at least one German corporation (Krauss-Maffei-Wegmann ) is part of the network of "French" companies helping to set up production centers. The first factory lines are expected to go online this Summer.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-running-out-ukraine

quote:

THE LAST RIDE OF THE SOVIET ARMY

Russia’s two main advantages are its remaining weapons and manpower, though even these are not as strong as the Kremlin would like its enemies to believe. Take Russia’s vast reserves of armor: since 2022, its forces have lost at least 14,000 pieces of equipment. The Russian general staff has offset some of these losses by exhuming the grave of the Soviet army and refurbishing for use thousands of mothballed tanks and armored vehicles. In 2023, Russia revived 1,200 tanks and 2,500 armored vehicles that were previously in long-term storage while producing only 200 new or modernized tanks. But these stockpiles are not infinite. Some researchers have noted that Russia has already removed between 25 to 40 percent of its strategic reserves depending on equipment type, and the best equipment was probably pulled early on. What remains is likely to be in worse shape or even unsalvageable. If Russia continues at this rate, its remaining inventory will dwindle in the next couple of years, and its future options will be constrained as a result. This depends, of course, on whether Ukraine is resourced to mount an active defense and regenerate its own combat power.

...

The erosion of Russia’s equipment and ammunition advantages will matter very little if Ukraine is not resourced to defend itself in 2024. It will not matter if Soviet-era tanks are less capable and survivable if Ukraine is not given the supplies to destroy them. It will not matter if foreign artillery shells have a higher “dud rate” than domestic versions, if Russian forces can maintain a firepower advantage of around five to one, and Western production and delivery delays continue. It will not matter if Russian long-range precision-strike missile production has reached its zenith—or if, as Ukrainian officials say, Western sanctions are reducing the quality of Russian missiles—if Ukraine is not equipped to defend its skies. In this worst-case scenario, Russian heavy bombers could be used to destroy Ukraine’s cities and critical infrastructure.

Good overview from Massicot.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer
sadly, Russia does not have enough wizards to conjure the number of bombers from thin air needed to make this "worst-case scenario" a reality

or are we talking about the shot down bombers plowing directly into cities? because that's more likely to happen

Dull Fork
Mar 22, 2009
Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29194

Hmm, I wonder if Macron is feeling guilty for being so convinced he could negotiate with Putin to prevent the war that now he's willing to say things like this. Could be that the strategy is to inject more uncertainty about what 'the west' is willing to do to stop Russia now, after repeatedly reassuring Russia they wouldn't get more involved. Russia pushing on Kyiv or Odessa would certainly be quite a shift of battle lines.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Dull Fork posted:

Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29194

Hmm, I wonder if Macron is feeling guilty for being so convinced he could negotiate with Putin to prevent the war that now he's willing to say things like this. Could be that the strategy is to inject more uncertainty about what 'the west' is willing to do to stop Russia now, after repeatedly reassuring Russia they wouldn't get more involved. Russia pushing on Kyiv or Odessa would certainly be quite a shift of battle lines.

I think its that mixed with it dawning on europe that if russia pulls a win, they wont stop with just ukraine and will keep pushing and then all the good times for europe crash hard. i dont think anything happens because i dont think putin gets to kyiv or odessa, but i think europe is putting a line in the sand just incase stuff gets way worse.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost
One of the Ukraine news Youtube guys also mentioned a day or two ago that some other serious people have also started to talk about possible Russian operations against the Baltic countries from Belarus and stuff like that. Macron is not alone in his pessimistic estimate of how the war might evolve.

Ukraine needs more help, if Putin decides that the west is systematically weak and cowardly and doesn't have a common will to defend itself, he just might decide to escalate further

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

jaete posted:

One of the Ukraine news Youtube guys also mentioned a day or two ago that some other serious people have also started to talk about possible Russian operations against the Baltic countries from Belarus and stuff like that. Macron is not alone in his pessimistic estimate of how the war might evolve.

Ukraine needs more help, if Putin decides that the west is systematically weak and cowardly and doesn't have a common will to defend itself, he just might decide to escalate further

i could see putin getting desperate for some sort of win and glory for the empire and just trying to expand the war.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

jaete posted:

One of the Ukraine news Youtube guys also mentioned a day or two ago that some other serious people have also started to talk about possible Russian operations against the Baltic countries from Belarus and stuff like that. Macron is not alone in his pessimistic estimate of how the war might evolve.

Ukraine needs more help, if Putin decides that the west is systematically weak and cowardly and doesn't have a common will to defend itself, he just might decide to escalate further

I suspect (hope) that there's a fair amount of saber-rattling on both sides, but yes, I think Macron is very eager to dissuade Putin from thinking that expanding the war would be a free ride.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

France has a long standing policy of strategic ambiguity, never quite letting its adversaries know exactly where its red lines are, in order to discourage them from going right up to the line and pushing France with an "I'm not touching you!" act.

This is likely at least partially an extension of that, trying to confuse Russia about how far France will go, in the hope that Russia will take it into account and moderate their own actions at least somewhat (as they're not dumb enough to want a direct clash with France yet).

Macron is probably also likely trying to move the Overton window in Europe, away from the current complacency and onto potential future scenarios if they fail to act. Europe isn't waking up yet, but he may be able to help wake it up to the fact it needs to wake up.

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952




jaete posted:

One of the Ukraine news Youtube guys also mentioned a day or two ago that some other serious people have also started to talk about possible Russian operations against the Baltic countries from Belarus and stuff like that. Macron is not alone in his pessimistic estimate of how the war might evolve.

The capital of Estonia is under 200 miles to the St.Petersburg suburbs, and only 120 miles from the border. The Russians might think they can hide a couple of mechanized brigades in the urban area and make a dash over the border. That'd be harder to spot than the big, slow buildup around Ukraine was.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Invading Estonia would not be a minor matter. It would separate Kaliningrad from Russia proper because there would be a hot war in the Baltic Sea. I doubt Putin would do that in a situation where he can't realistically secure a land connection to Kaliningrad. Or even if he could, because a blockade on St. Petersburg would be bad for him.

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Various kinds of hybrid harassing operations are to be expected and are already going on, though.

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