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Baddog
May 12, 2001

DeadFatDuckFat posted:

These other funds apparently have some "interesting" ideas like using AI to create characters and poo poo lol


I just saw a pitch deck from a company doing exactly this, all the way from character creation and storyboards up to generating the whole loving show. Was loll'ing the whole time thinking about goons having a meltdown, but I'm expecting childrens cartoons, anime poo poo, daytime television (is that even a thing anymore?) to be all AI generated pretty soon now. Does feel kinda grim.

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saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Baddog posted:

I just saw a pitch deck from a company doing exactly this, all the way from character creation and storyboards up to generating the whole loving show. Was loll'ing the whole time thinking about goons having a meltdown, but I'm expecting childrens cartoons, anime poo poo, daytime television (is that even a thing anymore?) to be all AI generated pretty soon now. Does feel kinda grim.

None of this is conjured out of thin air. Somewhere along the line someone's work is being stolen.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

saintonan posted:

None of this is conjured out of thin air. Somewhere along the line someone's work is being stolen.


Yah for sure, it sucks. But most of our media is stolen ideas anyway, it's so hard to find something new and creative that doesn't feel like the 100th iteration of the same story.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Baddog posted:

Yah for sure, it sucks. But most of our media is stolen ideas anyway, it's so hard to find something new and creative that doesn't feel like the 100th iteration of the same story.

there's a trope for that:
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HistoryRepeats
or
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TwiceToldTale

dopesilly
Aug 4, 2023

Baddog posted:

I just saw a pitch deck from a company doing exactly this, all the way from character creation and storyboards up to generating the whole loving show. Was loll'ing the whole time thinking about goons having a meltdown, but I'm expecting childrens cartoons, anime poo poo, daytime television (is that even a thing anymore?) to be all AI generated pretty soon now. Does feel kinda grim.

They can't copyright any of that poo poo from what I'm aware of. Mainly because a lot of the models these big companies are using were trained off Stable Diff which a lot was trained off of copyrighted works already. I'm guessing they'll use AI to generate a lot but it'll still have to run through human artist hands to make it copyrightable. We're going to see a ton of duplicate bullshit designs that are uninspired and look vaguely familiar, honestly not that much different than what we're seeing now with everybody just reviving old IPs.

The junk collector
Aug 10, 2005
Hey do you want that motherboard?
The pitch I've heard is to create an AI streaming service which continually generators an unlimited number of episodes for a personalize show that is tuned to someone's existing watch and like history.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

The junk collector posted:

The pitch I've heard is to create an AI streaming service which continually generators an unlimited number of episodes for a personalize show that is tuned to someone's existing watch and like history.

This is some real matrix-ish, living in a vat being fed by the computers, kind of crazyness.

Sort of similar, another company was pitching a "persona" ai for influencers, so they don't even have to generate their own bs anymore. It gets built from their existing content, so it's supposed to better reflect their "personalities". Does extra stuff like "personal interaction messaging" with the fan base to suck more money out of them.


There is undoubtedly going to be a ton of money made here. It just feels nasty as hell, and man it is coming fast.

Baddog fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Mar 10, 2024

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

The junk collector posted:

The pitch I've heard is to create an AI streaming service which continually generators an unlimited number of episodes for a personalize show that is tuned to someone's existing watch and like history.

Jokes on them my watch history is like 5 different people because nobody uses the profiles feature properly and just chooses the first one.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Your social media feed already does this, it's just not as optimized as it could be (yet)

Kids shows, anime in particular, are already optimized for needing as little actual animation as possible. As soon as Sora can generate scenes with repeatable characters that could be the first commercial use of the technology.

YouTube is already full of low quality reproductions of paw patrol, spider man, Mickey mouse and friends

Most kids TV is just soulless factory made regurgitation of IP that has been beat to death for decades, using AI to make it is just the final destination for that stuff

Man Musk
Jan 13, 2010

Going long KMTUY, IMKTA, KBH, ITRN, NVDA, META, SMCI, TSM. Investing like we're already in WW3 and it's just the phony war phase.

Already have positions in AMAT and QCOM, and shedding QCOM.

For the more enterprising plays, SOXL and TSM calls. (always calls as long as people are having babies)


UnfurledSails posted:

SMCI is joining the SP500 on March 18

yea son adding some to my srs portfolio :whatup:

Man Musk fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Mar 11, 2024

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012

Muttley is SKYNET!!!
reddit IPO with initial offering price range at $31-$34. No final price set yet but expected on the 21st. Good idea? Bad idea? no idea

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Filed to buy some Reddit. On a scale of 1 to Trump Supporter, how dumb is this idea

Baddog
May 12, 2001
feels kinda dumb.

at least sell it day 1 before it starts dropping.

drk
Jan 16, 2005
the share price is kinda irrelevant?

the more relevant info is the $750M raise at a $6.4B valuation. which, lol. even their adjusted ebitda is negative



i mean, i am sure there is no price too low to sell out their user base, which has historically been a plausibly profitable internet business model.

but the place is a money furnace. wtf are they doing spending $800M/year on staff?

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012

Muttley is SKYNET!!!

drk posted:

the share price is kinda irrelevant?

the more relevant info is the $750M raise at a $6.4B valuation. which, lol. even their adjusted ebitda is negative



i mean, i am sure there is no price too low to sell out their user base, which has historically been a plausibly profitable internet business model.

but the place is a money furnace. wtf are they doing spending $800M/year on staff?

So.... bad idea, got it :tipshat:

Baddog
May 12, 2001

drk posted:


but the place is a money furnace. wtf are they doing spending $800M/year on staff?

200mm just to the CEO

But yah, they haven't made any code changes in forever. The moderation is volunteer. Where is all this money going???

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

Baddog posted:

200mm just to the CEO

But yah, they haven't made any code changes in forever. The moderation is volunteer. Where is all this money going???

Well they have updated the mobile app, and introduced nft avatars.

Canine Blues Arooo
Jan 7, 2008

when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with

Grimey Drawer

Syrinxx posted:

Filed to buy some Reddit. On a scale of 1 to Trump Supporter, how dumb is this idea

This puts it's value at $750m which I think is at least reasonable. I was kinda expecting them to say try and justify something like a $10b valuation, which I would have purchased as many puts against as I possibly could. The actual reality of the situation though is that while reddit isn't going anywhere immediately, there is no where for it to go financially. At a headcount of 2,000, the cost to operate it is way, way too high and I don't really foresee a way for them to monetize without basically becoming another Digg within 1 - 3 years.

I don't think the stock price is going to plummet on week 2, but I think it's peak will be at IPO, or shortly after.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

Baddog posted:

200mm just to the CEO

But yah, they haven't made any code changes in forever. The moderation is volunteer. Where is all this money going???

Staff Onlyfans subscriptions

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

One or more of the AI companies is paying them for their human generated data, I think for around $30mm/yr arr

Twitter failed to grow their audience or generate any mods kind of significant profit

Reddit may be hanging on to their 2000 headcount right now, as a way to improve revenue/stock price. Every time they lay off employees their fixed costs go down, stock price should go up, at least long enough for next year's RSUs to pay out

Twitter employees like to defend their old head count but the reality is other than a couple of hiccups and periodic less than ideal latency the service is functional and largely the same despite the absolute bloodbath of headcount. Twitter employs their own moderators so headcount ought to impact Reddit less

I'm extremely skeptical about top tier investment banks taking this public, seems like being attached to the reddit IPO tarnishes their brand

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
Does any of that stuff really matter? Investing seems extremely vibes based these days

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

gay picnic defence posted:

Does any of that stuff really matter? Investing seems extremely vibes based these days

Retail yes, institutional not really

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Have they tried saying "AI" repeatedly in press conferences? That's usually good enough to double the valuation.

ARTPUP
Jun 7, 2013


For a minute there I thought the Chief of Police John Pelletier in Maui had resigned. Apparently not well liked on the force. Picked up another 130 shares of Hawaiian Electric (HE) @$11.65/share.

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


Canine Blues Arooo posted:

This puts it's value at $750m which I think is at least reasonable. I was kinda expecting them to say try and justify something like a $10b valuation, which I would have purchased as many puts against as I possibly could.

Just to clarify they're looking to sell $750m of stock at a near $7b valuation, and also there is no insider lockup period. This should tank hard when it IPOs but then again, the reddit user base is supremely stupid and managed to pump Gamestop stock to this day.

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


ranbo das posted:

Just to clarify they're looking to sell $750m of stock at a near $7b valuation, and also there is no insider lockup period. This should tank hard when it IPOs but then again, the reddit user base is supremely stupid and managed to pump Gamestop stock to this day.

I kind of expect it to be similar to Robin $HOOD IPO, RH wasn't well liked, and much of reddit doesn't exactly like the current direction Reddit is being taken to prepare for IPO.

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

ARTPUP posted:

Picked up another 130 shares of Hawaiian Electric (HE) @$11.65/share.
I shifted my dumb play for March; canceled my RDDT ipo order and instead bought some $HE so I could get on the goon trend. 200 @ $11.27

cirus
Apr 5, 2011
This is hilarious

https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1bf90fr/eva_stock_chapter_11/


Reddit posted:

I would say buy. Chapter 11 bankruptcy simply is restructuring its usually for a couple years to maintain operations afloat.

cirus fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Mar 15, 2024

Canine Blues Arooo
Jan 7, 2008

when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with

Grimey Drawer

ranbo das posted:

Just to clarify they're looking to sell $750m of stock at a near $7b valuation, and also there is no insider lockup period. This should tank hard when it IPOs but then again, the reddit user base is supremely stupid and managed to pump Gamestop stock to this day.

Yeah, I kinda expect the Robinhood curve. Unless they are just hilarious, I'm going to probably buy a pile of puts against reddit a day or two after IPO.

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


Canine Blues Arooo posted:

Yeah, I kinda expect the Robinhood curve. Unless they are just hilarious, I'm going to probably buy a pile of puts against reddit a day or two after IPO.

Usually takes a few weeks for options to show up. You'll likely only have the undefined risk of a naked short.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

Sickos looking through the window saying YES HAHA

Man Musk
Jan 13, 2010

Exercised my Haliburton 36C at a profit today. Think I spotted a hair on my chest...

cirus
Apr 5, 2011
Getting back in cannabis for another run after Harris comments on legalization

UnfurledSails
Sep 1, 2011

I got CCL, NCLH and RCL after they crashed during covid. 3 years in CCL has not recovered at all, NCLH is about double its covid lows, and RCL is surprisingly right back at its pre-covid peak and is approaching ATH. I don't think any airline stocks have recovered to a similar extent yet.

Wifi Toilet
Oct 1, 2004

Toilet Rascal
Just by Boeing. Their pr team is on fire right now, they’re getting mentioned on the news every day.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1769819499316842520?s=20

:boom:

huang starting @ GTC

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


anyone have an opinion on the most hassle-free way to have a bull position on gold in a portfolio?

$gld and similar etfs are grantor trusts that are more effort to calculate taxes on than equity etfs and I’m not sure if my broker would auto calculate the relevant metrics or not (I don’t really ever trade gold etfs). $gdx, the miners, is poo poo long term compared to the metal. futures, yeah ok, but can’t hold in certain accounts. options on the grantor trust gold etfs i think also get a different tax treatment than equities etfs.

i guess maybe the taxes on $gld and similar aren’t a hassle, really? anyone dealt with that recently?

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

What's your bull case

About 15 years ago I was sniffing around here about gold when it was $950 and (wisely, at the time) told gold was a terrible investment. Since then it's bounced off nearly $2000 a number of times

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


the bull case is that it is a flight to safety like long bonds but highly outperforms bonds during periods of above trend inflation. plus it will tend to go up over time because it remains scarce, useful, expensive to produce and desirable. not saying all that matters this month.

there’s also the incessant chinese govt demand which i expect to continue for years:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-07/china-s-gold-splurge-reaches-16th-month-as-prices-hit-record

i’m not saying “go buy gold” but you have to be blind to miss its recent run:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,GLD,TLT&n=20&O=011000

so my original question wanted to get at a low hassle way of trading it

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pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


pmchem posted:

I think the memory producer stocks are getting short shrift here. even if MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN design custom silicon to avoid paying NVDA insane margins, every one of these big LLM / genai / image/movie creator things is gonna require absurd amounts of memory. I was playing around with spinning up a kind of league average RAG system with a 7b model and MTEB leaderboard embedding model and the A100 I was goofing on ran out of memory (> 40GB) before even loading up a big dataset. H100's have 80GB. next-gen nvidia datacenter cards are coming with like 141GB of memory, supposedly.

I can easily see a GPU far future (especially for inference use cases) where we're not compute limited, but memory limited, like how most computer users furiously posting on the internet today could give a poo poo if their computer had a 2500K or 12700K cpu inside but they might have opinions on whether they've got 4GB or 32GB of RAM. and all the big big enterprise use cases will require massive amounts of memory to spin up models that like, an exec ends up using once per day.

also all this LLM/RAG stuff or some future derivative thereof is gonna end up entirely replacing windows explorer search, MS onedrive search, sharepoint search ... any querying of a private set of files. eventually. not in 2024 or 2025. ("MS Copilot! For Sharepoint!"). but will require a lot of memory to cover that data.

anyway micron $MU is still below pre-pandemic peak and down over past 2 years, SK Hynix (if you trust Korean listed not-majority-publicly-traded companies...they supply nvidia) is only up like 20% in 2 years, samsung is flat for 2 years. the commodification of the DRAM and flash markets led to a race to the bottom price-wise. but the world is gonna need a lot more datacenter memory soon.

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/94220/sk-hynix-and-samsung-are-both-sold-out-of-their-hbm3-memory-until-2025/index.html
https://www.tweaktown.com/news/96165/hbm-prices-have-skyrocketed-by-500-thanks-to-ai-gpu-demand-with-no-signs-of-slowing-down/index.html

who's supplying HBM memory to MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META for their custom silicon?

$MU reports in 1 month.

god drat, $MU up 18% tonight after reporting

and it’s due to HBM

https://x.com/_fabknowledge_/status/1770630742776652045?s=46

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