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Jimbozig posted:
If this were the case then Georgia would have gone for Trump.
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Mar 10, 2024 23:25
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I think we're stuck in a round-and-round argument that begins with 'Biden - is he old?' and ends with 'Biden must be the best option, because the alternative is worse, therefore we cannot accept the right wing framing' and I think it's an argument divorced from nuance. We can start by hopefully agreeing that Biden is an older candidate than most people would prefer. I'm hoping even people who nominally support Biden can agree that all things being equal, a younger person with the same tent poles would probably be a stronger candidate. So the important question then is, "To what degree does Biden's age impact his ability to govern?" and the related question, "To what extent does Biden's age impact his appeal as a candidate?" The first question is one nobody seems able to agree on. Is Biden suffering no ill effects from age, trivial ill effects from age, moderate to severe verbal but not cognitive impacts, etc. And this leads to the final question which is, "To what extent do we have luxury to be concerned about Biden's age in light of the electoral reality of United States?" It is not 'giving into the right wing framing' to have this conversation. The right wants Biden's age to become such a wedge issue that undecided voters - who I am assured, apparently, exist - will lean away from him, even though Trump's age and cognitive abilities are clearly the same or worse than Biden's in every regard. It is a valid conversation to have because it is important when we think about other politicians and their age and how we vote in the future; it is valid because the people around Biden need to understand that propping up a candidate far past retirement is not acceptable; and it is important because we cannot simply choose to deny reality because the right has staked a claim on a particularly unpleasant point. The reality is the right will capitalize on any perceived weakness and exaggerate it and if they can't find one, they will invent one; but that doesn't mean everything they pick apart is imagined, it just means that their story around it sometimes might be. I'm reminded of Bill Clinton. During his long scandal one of the things a lot of people on the Dem side did was claim this was a political hit job, that Clinton did nothing wrong and if he did it was nobody's business. Nowadays it's pretty much accepted that Bill was a sexpest and while the right absolutely did not care about the woman they affected with his hearing and impeachment he also was a sexpest and denying that he was didn't actually help anybody. I realize that in a world of clickbait and top ten reasons not to vote for Biden lists, it's hard to afford to have a nuanced conversation about the effects of age. Because the perceived result is a growing public discontent around a silly wedge issue. Because if the right says, "Biden - OLD!" it's tempting to shout back, "No - Biden NOT OLD." The reality is an educated society should be capable of agreeing Biden is probably too old for office but also vote for him anyway. That's what I'm doing, that is essentially where I live. Biden's stance on Palestine and people protesting him on that grounds is a whole other kettle of fish I'm not going to get into because I think there's something more legitimate and even more nuanced there to discuss, but "don't talk about Biden being old because that's a right wing invention" is silly. The man is old. His speech patterns have changed. If that matters or not is up to you. You can't break down the right wing hit pieces by simply denying reality. It won't stop me from voting for him. I'd vote for Biden if his opposition was a young and vibrant fascist. I'd vote for a dead man instead of Trump. I would vote for a pot of luke-warm stew. But it makes you look ridiculous if you try to claim he's just as young and punchy as he's ever been because that's just in complete opposition to our eyes and ears. Mendrian fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Mar 10, 2024 |
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Mar 10, 2024 23:40
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Mendrian posted:But it makes you look ridiculous if you try to claim he's just as young and punchy as he's ever been because that's just in complete opposition to our eyes and ears. I don’t believe anyone on this thread is making this point as you have stated it. The rebuttal to “Biden old” here has generally been “Trump is in the same neighborhood of old, and is in as much or more decline as Biden, therefore ‘Biden old’ is, in THIS presidential election, not a particularly good reason to sit it out or vote for Trump given that Trump is in fact the alternative.”
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Mar 10, 2024 23:52
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:If this were the case then Georgia would have gone for Trump. Florida in 2000 is a great example both of of how votes matter even where meddling is involved and that it's not about being the sole decisive vote. None of the Republican playbook would have been applicable if the raw vote count hadn't been both within the margin of error and favoring their guy. But the bit about how focusing on state/local elections is important in part for deciding who is going to oversee the federal ones? That's spot on. And if you really really need the Kevin Costner fantasy to get you to vote, it's not long ago that control of the VA legislature was decided by a literal coin flip because of a tied seat in a tied house. If you follow VA laws as party control of the state switches, the difference is pretty stark too.
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Mar 10, 2024 23:53
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Voting is one of those things where people think "my individual vote doesn't matter because everyone else will vote for the people I support" when there becomes a cutoff point where enough people think that you get swarmed by right wingers who are more motivated to vote. To get good or even okish policies in place in government and requires millions of voters each one being a single individual who has to make the choice to actually vote. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 11, 2024 00:24
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socialsecurity posted:Voting is one of those things where people think "my individual vote doesn't matter because everyone else will vote for the people I support" when there becomes a cutoff point where enough people think that you get swarmed by right wingers who are more motivated to vote. To get good or even okish policies in place in government and requires millions of voters each one being a single individual who has to make the choice to actually vote. Here’s how it is: you can do your best to make the country work (by voting), or you can strike a pose of superior rightousness on the internet. The choice is yours. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 11, 2024 00:56
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So, this seems like maybe a silly question, but is there any general thread consensus on who Trump's VP pick will be? Its hard to remember since it was at least 15 years ago, but Trump played up his VP selection and made an announcement like it was a big reveal in 2016. In reading through the wiki it seems like a lot of 'good' VP picks refused to be a part of the Trump campaign at all, like John Kasich and Bob Porter. As much as I believe that Nikki Haley's entire weird vanity run was an attempt to get in Trump's good graces I dont think she has a chance and will vanish the second Trump comes up with a mean nickname for her. Given that Trump can't help but poo poo on anyone who enters his field of vision combined with his full blown cult of personality approach, I feel like it could be some other random celebrity or relative of his as much as $Politician. I'm sure there are lots of toadies who WANT to be his VP. Is there even a requirement of when they be announced? I would expect historic precedent is you announced your VP pick based on the strategic need of your specific campaign. Trump being Trump I could see him just ignoring the idea of a VP entirely until forced to at the last minute - if there is such a thing
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Mar 11, 2024 02:13
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Jimbozig posted:If two events have probabilities within 0.00001% of each other, it's more than fair to say that they are equally likely. You can try to move the goalposts to "proportionately likely" but that wasn't my claim. Please keep more in-depth discussions of political strategy in an electoral context in this thread that specializes in it.
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Mar 11, 2024 02:25
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US Foreign Policy posted:So, this seems like maybe a silly question, but is there any general thread consensus on who Trump's VP pick will be? Its hard to remember since it was at least 15 years ago, but Trump played up his VP selection and made an announcement like it was a big reveal in 2016. In reading through the wiki it seems like a lot of 'good' VP picks refused to be a part of the Trump campaign at all, like John Kasich and Bob Porter. As much as I believe that Nikki Haley's entire weird vanity run was an attempt to get in Trump's good graces I dont think she has a chance and will vanish the second Trump comes up with a mean nickname for her. There was an article floating around the conservative sphere today that the field consists of three candidates: Britt, Vance, and DeSantis. However, it seemed to be poorly sourced wishcasting from a rando right wing journalist, so I'm not sure it's very credible. Of the three Vance hasn't so directly immolated or humiliated himself and seems to cut most directly into successful wedge issue lines; that's not exactly high praise though.
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Mar 11, 2024 02:31
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US Foreign Policy posted:So, this seems like maybe a silly question, but is there any general thread consensus on who Trump's VP pick will be? Its hard to remember since it was at least 15 years ago, but Trump played up his VP selection and made an announcement like it was a big reveal in 2016. In reading through the wiki it seems like a lot of 'good' VP picks refused to be a part of the Trump campaign at all, like John Kasich and Bob Porter. As much as I believe that Nikki Haley's entire weird vanity run was an attempt to get in Trump's good graces I dont think she has a chance and will vanish the second Trump comes up with a mean nickname for her. yeah i suspect he'll choose either Ivanka or someone else with unquestioned personal loyalty to him.
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Mar 11, 2024 02:35
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US Foreign Policy posted:So, this seems like maybe a silly question, but is there any general thread consensus on who Trump's VP pick will be? Its hard to remember since it was at least 15 years ago, but Trump played up his VP selection and made an announcement like it was a big reveal in 2016. In reading through the wiki it seems like a lot of 'good' VP picks refused to be a part of the Trump campaign at all, like John Kasich and Bob Porter. As much as I believe that Nikki Haley's entire weird vanity run was an attempt to get in Trump's good graces I dont think she has a chance and will vanish the second Trump comes up with a mean nickname for her. After Mike Pence refused to help him do a coup, I think he'll want someone who he thinks will do whatever he wants, so probably a woman (since he would feel more threatened by a man). Kari Lake or Kristi Noem are my most likely guesses. He's not going to pick anyone who isn't 100% MAGA, and I really don't expect him to pick anyone who has national pull at all who he thinks might stand up to him, so zero chance it's anyone who also ran for president this cycle
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Mar 11, 2024 02:41
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He's going to choose himself as his VP so if he gets impeached he'll just take right back over as president again. It's foolproof.
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Mar 11, 2024 02:46
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bagrada posted:He's going to choose himself as his VP so if he gets impeached he'll just take right back over as president again. It's foolproof. His VP will be him talking with his butt like Ace Ventura. Is there anything stopping him from delaying the announcement until, like, September?
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Mar 11, 2024 02:56
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He’s going to fail to choose a VP and the electoral college gives it to Kamala Harris
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Mar 11, 2024 03:01
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Blue Footed Booby posted:His VP will be him talking with his butt like Ace Ventura. Not particularly, but around the convention is typical. Trump announced Pence in July 2016. Biden announced Harris in August 2020. It's possible he picks someone before that but not likely to be by much.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:11
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Killer robot posted:Not particularly, but around the convention is typical. Trump announced Pence in July 2016. Biden announced Harris in August 2020. It's possible he picks someone before that but not likely to be by much. Not just typical. Almost all modern VP picks are either before the convention or shortly after. Which, you know, makes sense, you want your ticket defined around the time you have a presidential nominee. haveblue posted:He’s going to fail to choose a VP and the electoral college gives it to Kamala Harris technically it could be donald trump at that point
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Mar 11, 2024 03:30
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Piell posted:After Mike Pence refused to help him do a coup, I think he'll want someone who he thinks will do whatever he wants, so probably a woman (since he would feel more threatened by a man). Kari Lake or Kristi Noem are my most likely guesses. He's not going to pick anyone who isn't 100% MAGA, and I really don't expect him to pick anyone who has national pull at all who he thinks might stand up to him, so zero chance it's anyone who also ran for president this cycle I feel like this is where my brain hits an endless logic loop. I feel it's entirely safe to say that Trump doesn't like women. He sees himself as inherently superior, and as such never misses a chance to dunk on a woman for any and all petty reasons (She's not even my type anyway!) and would therefore never, ever actually cooperate with a woman. Much less pretend she is somehow his equal or able to succeed him other than maybe indeed Ivanka. I refuse to entertain the idea that Ivanka could be a real pick but loving why not At the same time, everything else you said is 100% correct about why it really can't be a man. Tim Scott is as much of a toadie as he can be only to be publicly mocked by Trump. Anyone who wields actual power will be perceived as a threat while I dont think Trump has the political savvy to neuter someone by making them VP. It will have to be someone he can treat as a kicked dog, and abuse in public. In that regard, it could be a DeSantis, so long as they accepted the abuse with a smile? Or its loving Ivanka I hate this timeline
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Mar 11, 2024 03:42
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Trump is willing to have female subordinates in his admin as long as they follow the most important two tenets: - Be pretty - Follow his every fog-addled command US Foreign Policy posted:Or its loving Ivanka I hate this timeline Allow me to make this worse. Trump / Ivanka ticket wins, he dies the first week in office.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:52
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Scags McDouglas posted:Trump is willing to have female subordinates in his admin as long as they follow the most important two tenets: That would be a dramatic improvement. We'd get a bunch of weird fashion statements out of the white house like melanias weird Christmas metal trees but she'd probably just check out and not do much.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That would be a dramatic improvement. We'd get a bunch of weird fashion statements out of the white house like melanias weird Christmas metal trees but she'd probably just check out and not do much. Yeah you're right I had a second to think about it and there's a serious possibility of that not being worse. 4 straight years of the most confused, overwhelmed and actionless president in our proud nation's history.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:59
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US Foreign Policy posted:So, this seems like maybe a silly question, but is there any general thread consensus on who Trump's VP pick will be? Its hard to remember since it was at least 15 years ago, but Trump played up his VP selection and made an announcement like it was a big reveal in 2016. In reading through the wiki it seems like a lot of 'good' VP picks refused to be a part of the Trump campaign at all, like John Kasich and Bob Porter. As much as I believe that Nikki Haley's entire weird vanity run was an attempt to get in Trump's good graces I dont think she has a chance and will vanish the second Trump comes up with a mean nickname for her. My money is on Tim Scott. No personality, complete sponge, will never outshine the big wet president, person of color he can prop up for his racism.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:59
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Scags McDouglas posted:Trump is willing to have female subordinates in his admin as long as they follow the most important two tenets: A shadow Kushner presidency is, in this hellscape, optimistic.
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Mar 11, 2024 04:02
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I think we'd be all holding our breaths to find out who manages to scramble first in line to convince her to cede total decisionmaking, and that could go a few ways
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Mar 11, 2024 04:05
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US Foreign Policy posted:So, this seems like maybe a silly question, but is there any general thread consensus on who Trump's VP pick will be? Its hard to remember since it was at least 15 years ago, but Trump played up his VP selection and made an announcement like it was a big reveal in 2016. In reading through the wiki it seems like a lot of 'good' VP picks refused to be a part of the Trump campaign at all, like John Kasich and Bob Porter. As much as I believe that Nikki Haley's entire weird vanity run was an attempt to get in Trump's good graces I dont think she has a chance and will vanish the second Trump comes up with a mean nickname for her. Haley wouldn't do it. She's extremely well-positioned for 2028, and part of maintaining that position is keeping a certain distance from Trump. I assume she'll angle for a position in his new administration, ideally something like her position in his previous administration which gave her a degree of independence and kept her out out of Washington. But putting her name on the bumper sticker now ties her to every part of Trump's administration in a way that can only hurt her. US Foreign Policy posted:I feel like this is where my brain hits an endless logic loop. I feel it's entirely safe to say that Trump doesn't like women. He sees himself as inherently superior, and as such never misses a chance to dunk on a woman for any and all petty reasons (She's not even my type anyway!) and would therefore never, ever actually cooperate with a woman. Much less pretend she is somehow his equal or able to succeed him other than maybe indeed Ivanka. I refuse to entertain the idea that Ivanka could be a real pick but loving why not Trump was known for hiring women for high positions in the Trump corporation. Trump is a misogynist, but he's not that kind of misogynist. And his previous VP pick was a man. A man who was not in the "Trump wing" of the party, even. I strongly doubt it'll be Ivanka. I'd bet it's going to a mainstream Republican. Y'all are right that he's going to want someone more loyal than Pence was, but, good news! Most mainstream Republicans are loyal to Trump now! He's got a lot of options.
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Mar 11, 2024 05:19
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That would be a dramatic improvement. We'd get a bunch of weird fashion statements out of the white house like melanias weird Christmas metal trees but she'd probably just check out and not do much. Scags McDouglas posted:I think we'd be all holding our breaths to find out who manages to scramble first in line to convince her to cede total decisionmaking, and that could go a few ways Why are we assuming this about Ivanka?
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Mar 11, 2024 05:20
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Scags McDouglas posted:Yeah you're right I had a second to think about it and there's a serious possibility of that not being worse. 4 straight years of the most confused, overwhelmed and actionless president in our proud nation's history. We already had that president in Donald.
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Mar 11, 2024 05:26
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US Foreign Policy posted:It will have to be someone he can treat as a kicked dog, and abuse in public. In that regard, it could be a DeSantis, so long as they accepted the abuse with a smile?
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Mar 11, 2024 05:45
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Ivanka changing residency is the easiest thing in the world Unless there's a time limit
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Mar 11, 2024 05:49
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Zwabu posted:I don’t believe anyone on this thread is making this point as you have stated it. The rebuttal to “Biden old” here has generally been “Trump is in the same neighborhood of old, and is in as much or more decline as Biden, therefore ‘Biden old’ is, in THIS presidential election, not a particularly good reason to sit it out or vote for Trump given that Trump is in fact the alternative.” Well, that's encouraging, and you're correct, but I think the problem is that when someone posts 'Biden old' it's important to sus out whether they mean 'in the context of an election against Trump does this matter' versus 'does this matter more generally' because it's a different answer depending on which one you're discussing. And I have seen here and elsewhere people blurring the line because they're nervous any discussion of Biden's age automatically makes it the former.
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Mar 11, 2024 06:44
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Ivanka/Kushner have openly stated that they're done with politics and want to return to their private lives. My bet is on Kristi Noem, personally.
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Mar 11, 2024 06:44
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Mendrian posted:Well, that's encouraging, and you're correct, but I think the problem is that when someone posts 'Biden old' it's important to sus out whether they mean 'in the context of an election against Trump does this matter' versus 'does this matter more generally' because it's a different answer depending on which one you're discussing. And I have seen here and elsewhere people blurring the line because they're nervous any discussion of Biden's age automatically makes it the former. I don't think saying Biden is old is controversial, people are getting pushback for "Biden has dementia based on this 15 second video clip and being old" (obviously false) or "Biden will lose because he's old" (debatable since we won't even know who won until November)
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Mar 11, 2024 06:58
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mobby_6kl posted:You know China already bans Facebook and Twitter and even Google, right. You don't get to define leftism
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Mar 11, 2024 13:34
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Regarde Aduck posted:You don't get to define leftism Then who does and how does China fit that definition?
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Mar 11, 2024 13:35
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Shooting Blanks posted:Ivanka/Kushner have openly stated that they're done with politics and want to return to their private lives. My bet is on Kristi Noem, personally. Yeah like I'm really going to trust the word of a shady landlord (redundant) that repeatedly lied on his SF86.
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Mar 11, 2024 14:28
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socialsecurity posted:Then who does and how does China fit that definition? As the largest socialist nation in the world, China has a fair claim to that authority.
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Mar 11, 2024 14:30
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In an election where both candidates have been incredibly light on policy, we are finally starting to get a little bit of each candidate's official platform. Biden released his 2025 budget blueprint. This is essentially the domestic taxing/spending policy document for his re-election campaign. Some of these policies were already announced during the State of the Union last week. Biden's Major Proposals: - 25% minimum tax rate for individuals with over $1 billion in assets/unrealized capital gains. - Increase the number of drugs Medicare can negotiate prices for up to 500. - Cap insulin at $35 per month for private insurance plans and cap out of pocket prescription costs to $2,000 a year for all private health plans. - Permanently expand the child tax credit back to what it was under the stimulus bill. (~$3,600 per child under 7 and fully refundable) - Make the ACA/Obamacare boosted subsidies that started during Covid and are set to expire in 2026 permanent. - Oppose any cuts to Medicare or Social Security Trump released a few economic and tax policy details in response, but hasn't released a full economic platform yet. This is just a list of what he announced recently in response and is not a comprehensive list of economic platform so far. Trump's Major proposals: - Make the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts permanent (the corporate tax cuts are already permanent, this would be for the personal income tax cuts). - A 10% tariff on all goods entering America to help pay for the tax cuts. - Reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% - Pay down the national debt by the end of term (this isn't really a policy, but I'm including it because it is what he said. Doing so would require huge spending cuts and he has declined to specify any of what he would cut to achieve this). - Support the Republican House budget that would lower the deficit by $14 trillion over 10 years. $8.7 trillion would come from Medicaid and Medicare cuts. https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1767155785233059963 quote:Biden is issuing a budget plan that details his vision for a second term
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Mar 11, 2024 15:01
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Gripweed posted:As the largest socialist nation in the world, China has a fair claim to that authority. India is bigger.
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Mar 11, 2024 15:05
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Gripweed posted:As the largest socialist nation in the world, China has a fair claim to that authority. So leftism is purely an economical thing? Social rights don't matter? Instead an authoritarian government that engages in quite a bit of capitalism is considered leftist? Is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have a fair claim on being the most Democratic nation?
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Mar 11, 2024 15:09
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:- Pay down the national debt by the end of term (this isn't really a policy, but I'm including it because it is what he said. Doing so would require huge spending cuts and he has declined to specify any of what he would cut to achieve this). This is a bit of an understatement- the national debt is significantly more than 4 years of total spending. If he completely shut down the government and military, including essential services, and violating the Constitution by eliminating congressional and executive salaries, so he could devote 100% of the budget to debt payments, there would still be several trillion left over by the end
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Mar 11, 2024 15:15
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socialsecurity posted:So leftism is purely an economical thing? Social rights don't matter? Instead an authoritarian government that engages in quite a bit of capitalism is considered leftist? Is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have a fair claim on being the most Democratic nation? It’s definitely mainly an economic thing. I don’t know enough about North Korea’s internal political setup to comment on that.
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Mar 11, 2024 15:20
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