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Interesting analysis. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198788689465639?t=5EJkcqOtTKBS_Zu6v4bvYQ&s=19 Maybe several generations of treating minorities as a homogenous dependable voting bloc that you don't have to appeal to in any way is not a great long-term electoral strategy
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Mar 11, 2024 15:59
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Failed Imagineer posted:Maybe several generations of treating minorities as a homogenous dependable voting bloc that you don't have to appeal to in any way is not a great long-term electoral strategy Maybe, but then how is not attempting to appeal to them a successful strategy? Edit, I guess the argument is just that non-Whites are conservative after all and the bonds of the civil rights and other era are dissipating. OK, so new question, how do you appeal to conservatives who happen to be non-White? It seems that those people being lost in Democratic voting want policies leftists/liberals here would not be happy with. Shammypants fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Mar 11, 2024 |
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Mar 11, 2024 16:02
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Failed Imagineer posted:Interesting analysis. It looks like he took some movement in 2020 and then drew arbitrary arrows to make it look like 2024 will be close to 50:50. I have no idea why he thinks it’ll close that much and suspect he doesn’t and is just throwing poo poo on a graph.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:05
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Yeah, are those trends borne out in actual elections or just the NYT/Siena poll
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Mar 11, 2024 16:05
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Failed Imagineer posted:Interesting analysis. That is the opposite conclusion that the author draws. According to him, the primary cause is more conservative black voters (particularly younger conservative black voters who have no memory of the civil rights movement) realigning to a party that more naturally fits their views. For Hispanics, it is partially the same thing as black voters and partially that a growing share of Hispanic voters identify as white and are voting similarly to how white people overall vote. He also says that his 2024 figures are based on polls, whereas the previous figures are based on election results, so that may be making the jump much larger if the polls aren't exactly correct. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198834973626460 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198841504211035
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Mar 11, 2024 16:05
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Lol those arrows from 2020 to 2024 are completely made up
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Mar 11, 2024 16:10
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Bwee posted:Lol those arrows from 2020 to 2024 are completely made up They are based on polling crosstabs. Not completely made up, but not the same as the previous data. The author also admits that his theory could be way off if the racial polling crosstabs don't bear out in 2024 election results. The author notes that the crosstabs are highly unstable and not necessarily hugely reliable for getting specific numbers, but the trend of more conservative Hispanic and black young voters supporting the GOP seems to be appearing in most polls, so he says that is more solid proof that something is happening. Just clarifying for context.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:14
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Bwee posted:Lol those arrows from 2020 to 2024 are completely made up Also fake, according to Pew's 2020 electoral analysis 
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Mar 11, 2024 16:14
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We need to appeal to a fictionally massive demographic of non-White conservative voters by broadly adopting Trumpian policies you see.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:16
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It has been a massive, massive self own that the GOP has never made any effort to get Hispanic voters, considering they do align in values (or the values the GOP continues to pretend to have) a lot of the time more with the GOP than Democrats. There are a lot of socially conservative, small business owning, anti-abortion, etc Hispanic people. But then the GOP made its deal with the White nationalist devil a long time ago. Edit: I admit this is anecdotal experience, but I live in a heavily Hispanic area and work in a heavily (98%) Hispanic workplace, and as a white guy the poo poo that people assume it’s ok to tell me is pretty insane. They just assume I’m conservative like them and go off. Fork of Unknown Origins fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Mar 11, 2024 |
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Mar 11, 2024 16:18
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Failed Imagineer posted:Interesting analysis. It says "intention in pre-election polls". Forget intention, show me the exit poll results of actual votes cast. Fork of Unknown Origins posted:It looks like he took some movement in 2020 and then drew arbitrary arrows to make it look like 2024 will be close to 50:50. I have no idea why he thinks it’ll close that much and suspect he doesn’t and is just throwing poo poo on a graph. That too. The only data points he has are the changes between 2016 and 2020, which is effectively one data point. You don't get to take one data point and then extrapolate a 15 point swing. That's especially true if what the graph is measuring not actual exit-polling after a vote but "intention in pre-election polls."
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Mar 11, 2024 16:21
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:It has been a massive, massive self own that the GOP has never made any effort to get Hispanic voters, considering they do align in values (or the values the GOP continues to pretend to have) a lot of the time more with the GOP than Democrats. There are a lot of socially conservative, small business owning, anti-abortion, etc Hispanic people. But then the GOP made its deal with the White nationalist devil a long time ago. Haven't they? I remember some noises around the last election or two about how Facebook is full of Spanish-language misinformation and no one is investigating because all the investigators only speak English
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Mar 11, 2024 16:21
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:It has been a massive, massive self own that the GOP has never made any effort to get Hispanic voters, considering they do align in values (or the values the GOP continues to pretend to have) a lot of the time more with the GOP than Democrats. There are a lot of socially conservative, small business owning, anti-abortion, etc Hispanic people. But then the GOP made its deal with the White nationalist devil a long time ago. The 2012 Romney post-mortem concluded that if the GOP didn't start to reach out to Hispanic voters, they were on the path to becoming a regional rump party. But then they nominated the most openly racist and anti-immigrant candidate in history and he won so here we are.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:23
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It's almost as if a nobody reporter for a second rate newspaper whose beat covers a million topics including "the economy to climate change, social issues and healthcare" even though he is an expert in exactly none of those topics isn't going to provide a good analysis of anything.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:24
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zoux posted:The 2012 Romney post-mortem concluded that if the GOP didn't start to reach out to Hispanic voters, they were on the path to becoming a regional rump party. But then they nominated the most openly racist and anti-immigrant candidate in history and he won so here we are. An issue is that to a lot of Hispanic people, anti-immigration doesn’t necessarily equal anti-Hispanic.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:27
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haveblue posted:Haven't they? I remember some noises around the last election or two about how Facebook is full of Spanish-language misinformation and no one is investigating because all the investigators only speak English It was highly regional, but Democrats lost significant ground among Cuban Americans that resulted in them losing congressional seats in Florida and New York. Hispanics in southern Texas near border towns also became noticeably more Republican, but the Democratic share of the Latino vote nationally was basically unchanged from 2016 to 2020 (up to 66% from 65%). https://www.as-coa.org/articles/chart-how-us-latinos-voted-2020-presidential-election 
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Mar 11, 2024 16:27
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WTF happened to the ACLU https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1767173635419394106 quote:In addition to trying to expand the scope of mandatory arbitration, the ACLU is also arguing that the current General Counsel (GC) of the NLRB, Jennifer Abruzzo, was appointed unconstitutionally because President Biden did not have the right to remove her predecessor, Peter Robb, before his four-year term as GC had ended. Biden fired Robb on the first day of his presidency and is the first president to ever fire an NLRB GC. quote:Given that the ACLU is a progressive organization that sits in a broader ecosystem that includes the labor movement, it is hard to understand why it is pursuing such aggressive and reckless legal theories at the NLRB. Their posture becomes even more puzzling after you read the details of the underlying dispute, which seems to have no real stakes for the practical operation of the organization and appears to just be the result of a DEI-crazed HR department. Labor policy has been one of the true bright spots of the Biden admin, it's hard to square this action by the ACLU with their stated values.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:28
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Gripweed posted:An issue is that to a lot of Hispanic people, anti-immigration doesn’t necessarily equal anti-Hispanic. 100% this. There’s a boomer energy of “I came through legally why can’t they!?” When the situations are as comparable as boomers who could put themselves through college flipping burgers not wanting loan forgiveness now. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It was highly regional, but Democrats lost significant ground among Cuban Americans that resulted in them losing congressional seats in Florida and New York. Yeah I can not stress this enough: Cuban-Americans, Tejanos, California Hispanics, etc, have very little in common in terms of voting patterns, values, etc. Lumping them all together really muddies the water on what factors are driving voting patterns in each group.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:37
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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1767209453428887872 I think the media are actually being too hard on Trump for this. He does say he is open to cutting entitlements, but I don't know if you can really get a coherent policy plan from this statement:  quote:Trump floats 'cutting' retirement spending, drawing quick pushback from Biden Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:40 on Mar 11, 2024 |
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Mar 11, 2024 16:37
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He said entitlements and cut, you attack and you attack relentlessly and you never take your foot off his neck. Are we really mincing words with a guy who is on the campaign trail saying Russia would have never invaded Ukraine if he was President?
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Mar 11, 2024 16:44
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Failed Imagineer posted:Interesting analysis. If that's your takeaway, then I'm not entirely sure you read the whole analysis. The conclusion the tweeter came to was very different from what you seem to be suggesting here. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198828216696975 The analysis seems to come to the conclusion that non-white voters are fundamentally conservative and were always "natural Republicans", but have gone against their own ideological leanings for historical reasons. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198864698716387?s=20 The analysis concludes that as racial discrimination fades away and the populace loses their religious community ties, non-whites will naturally drift toward the GOP. I don't think that's a complete analysis or a correct one, but you can't point to the analysis without acknowledging the argument it actually makes.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:45
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lol, ok.Gripweed posted:It’s definitely mainly an economic thing. I don’t know enough about North Korea’s internal political setup to comment on that. Fork of Unknown Origins posted:100% this. There’s a boomer energy of “I came through legally why can’t they!?” When the situations are as comparable as boomers who could put themselves through college flipping burgers not wanting loan forgiveness now.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:47
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On the demo shifts, what exactly do they mean by "natural" Dems or Reps? I think that deserves some serious unpacking, especially tied to race constructs.
Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Mar 11, 2024 |
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Mar 11, 2024 16:50
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Discendo Vox posted:On the demo shifts, what exactly do they mean by "natural" Dems or Reps? He's saying that white people who favored the Republican positions on guns, LGBT rights, abortion, immigration, and crime almost exclusively voted Republican. Whereas Hispanic voters who favored those policies were split about 50/50 and are getting closer to the way white people vote. People who favored the Republican positions on guns, LGBT rights, abortion, immigration, and crime, but voted for Democrats, are the "natural" Republicans that are coming back according to the author.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:52
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mobby_6kl posted:lol, ok. There's also the complicating factor that in general, easier immigration general favors the capital class and not the average worker. A construction worker who gets priced out of work by an undocumented worker isn't going to be in favor of more open borders, but the owner of the construction company will be. This gets muddled up with the generally godawful race relations in the United States, but it is true.
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Mar 11, 2024 16:54
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OPAONI posted:There's also the complicating factor that in general, easier immigration general favors the capital class and not the average worker. A construction worker who gets priced out of work by an undocumented worker isn't going to be in favor of more open borders, but the owner of the construction company will be. The issue there is that they are undocumented and not getting access to all the rights they should be. If it were easy to get documented and everybody was playing by the same rules wrt employment laws a lot of that problem goes away. Along with some of the age-demographic economic problem which I am getting more and more convinced has made the turn from “looming” to “active,” stalled if anything only by immigration.
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Mar 11, 2024 17:07
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Discendo Vox posted:On the demo shifts, what exactly do they mean by "natural" Dems or Reps? I think that deserves some serious unpacking, especially tied to race constructs. They mean that on a number of major policies, these groups actually tend to favor the Republican Party's positions over the Democratic Party's positions, but that they've put aside those ideological priorities and voted for the Dems anyway due to cultural memories of the civil rights era. That much is, at least, fairly well-documented - the conservative policy leanings of minorities has been something that's been a concern for years, though it rarely makes its way to the mainstream political conversation. Unfortunately, polling has fairly consistently suggested that this much is true: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198848743514534 The problem is where he goes from there, his ultimate conclusions. He goes on to suggest that discrimination has lessened, and that various factors (such as a decrease in segregation and a decrease in church attendance) have both contributed to eroding those cultural memories and community norms. I think this portion of the analysis is rather dubious. Whether discrimination and segregation have actually lessened is, of course, very much debatable. And even if they have, that wouldn't explain the abrupt and drastic shift the writer is seeing only in 2020 and later. These are long-term systemic factors that wouldn't result in a graph like this: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198788689465639 So the analysis is clearly missing something, and it's missing something rather large and important.
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Mar 11, 2024 17:15
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Failed Imagineer posted:Interesting analysis. Why would someone seriously interrogating this question use "pre-election polling" when they can use actual turnout numbers? I would need to go find the data, but I don't think it is borne out by 2020 actuals to be this kind of steep increase.
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Mar 11, 2024 17:20
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BougieBitch posted:Why would someone seriously interrogating this question use "pre-election polling" when they can use actual turnout numbers? Best way to get someone to click on an article is to scare a liberal. And it's not, Pew found that black voters broke for Biden 92-8 in 2020.
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Mar 11, 2024 17:21
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zoux posted:WTF happened to the ACLU This seems... weirdly hosed up and way outside the ACLU's stated goals? What is the management structure like there that this kind of legal expense could get approved and pushed forward?
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Mar 11, 2024 17:32
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ElegantFugue posted:This seems... weirdly hosed up and way outside the ACLU's stated goals? What is the management structure like there that this kind of legal expense could get approved and pushed forward? They are being sued for discrimination and the NLRB sided with the person suing them. They are essentially defending themselves in a lawsuit and appealing. It isn't an advocacy lawsuit, it's a legal case against them that they are trying to get dropped.
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Mar 11, 2024 17:39
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Socialism is when you have a flag where red touches yellow. Read your Marx, people.Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It was highly regional, but Democrats lost significant ground among Cuban Americans that resulted in them losing congressional seats in Florida and New York. For a little more detail, I seem to recall the research into it suggested Cuban Americans were really receptive to anti-communist Republican rhetoric and also were a big Qanon demographic, while the Texan counties that saw the biggest shifts had also gotten a lot of economic influx from the wall projects so at least somewhat were voting with their wallets. Both of which make sense.
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Mar 11, 2024 17:50
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ElegantFugue posted:This seems... weirdly hosed up and way outside the ACLU's stated goals? What is the management structure like there that this kind of legal expense could get approved and pushed forward? Planned Parenthood also engages in union busting. It turns out if your politics aren’t class-intersectional they can easily suck the moment you get outside your lane.
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Mar 11, 2024 17:58
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:In an election where both candidates have been incredibly light on policy, we are finally starting to get a little bit of each candidate's official platform. Man, that seems like an easy comparison between "run a country" or "throw the nation into chaos".
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Mar 11, 2024 18:07
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Trump: Inflation is a problem, so here are exclusively inflationary policies such as tax cuts and tariffs.
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Mar 11, 2024 18:10
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Killer robot posted:Socialism is when you have a flag where red touches yellow. Read your Marx, people. Cuban-Americans don't seem to get the same racism from Republicans that a lot of other minorities do, so that probably does something for allowing the Republicans to remain an option for them.
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Mar 11, 2024 18:18
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selec posted:Planned Parenthood also engages in union busting. It turns out if your politics aren’t class-intersectional they can easily suck the moment you get outside your lane. Gaaaaah  Do you have an article or something handy? I'd settle for a partially remembered anecdote; I'm just curious.
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Mar 11, 2024 18:21
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Main Paineframe posted:T] I know there have been stories of Republican messaging going heavy in Spanish language and targeted media, pushing conspiracy theories etc. A really heavy post 2020 adoption of conspiracy poo poo in minority circles could explain results like this. I saw a surprisingly large number of African-American sovcits past few years.
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Mar 11, 2024 18:29
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I know there have been stories of Republican messaging going heavy in Spanish language and targeted media, pushing conspiracy theories etc. A really heavy post 2020 adoption of conspiracy poo poo in minority circles could explain results like this. There's always been a relatively large amount African-American sovcits, probably because something that purports allows them to get the racist cops off their backs has to be really appealing.
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Mar 11, 2024 18:33
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Gaaaaah https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/03/31/planned-parenthood-affiliate-fires-two-union-leaders-disciplines-entire-bargaining-team/ https://advocate.stpaulunions.org/2023/07/07/seiu-pulls-mn-lawmakers-endorsement-over-union-busting-at-planned-parenthood/
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Mar 11, 2024 18:37
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