Economics and current events, no-tweet, no-tiktok: you posted a damn advertisement

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Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

CPI February due here shortly

Here is a prediction

forexlive.com posted:

Core CPI jumped in January and it's expected to give some of that back in February, though the bias is towards uncertainty. For the numbers excluding food and autos, CPI is expected at:

+0.3% m/m vs +0.4% prior
+3.7% y/y vs +3.9% prior
Estimates range from 3.6% to 3.9%
As for the headline, the consensus is:

+0.4% m/m vs +0.3% prior
3.1% y/y vs +3.1% prior
Estimates range from 2.9% to 3.2%
The final number that could be a market mover is the real weekly earnings metric.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/preview-tuesdays-us-cpi-report-will-be-full-of-pitfalls-20240311/

# ? Mar 12, 2024 10:49

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 17:17

LanceHunter: Nov 12, 2016; Beautiful People Club

Looks like the official number is 3.2%

NYTimes (free link) posted:

February Inflation Report
Consumer Price Increases Inch Higher
Inflation climbed 3.2 percent in the year through February, faster than expected, and a sign that inflation could prove difficult to fully stamp out.

Inflation ticked up last month, backing the Fed�s caution on rate cuts.

Inflation sped up slightly in February on an overall basis and a closely watched measure of underlying price increases was firmer than economists had expected.

The fresh data underscore that fully returning inflation back to a normal pace is likely to be a bumpy process � and back up the Federal Reserve�s decision to proceed carefully as officials consider when and how much to lower interest rates.

The Consumer Price Index climbed 3.2 percent last month from a year earlier, up from 3.1 percent in January. That�s down notably from a 9.1 percent high in 2022, but it is still quicker than the roughly 2 percent that was normal before the 2020 pandemic.

After stripping out volatile food and fuel costs for a better sense of the underlying trend, inflation came in at 3.8 percent, slightly faster than economists had forecast. And on a monthly basis, core inflation climbed slightly more quickly than anticipated as airline fares and car insurance prices increased, even as one closely watched housing measure climbed less rapidly.

Taken as a whole, the report was the latest sign that bringing inflation fully down is likely to take time and patience.

�It just is going to underscore the Fed�s cautiousness regarding the inflation outlook,� said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual.

To date, inflation has come down steadily and relatively painlessly: Unemployment continues to hover below 4 percent and growth in 2023 was unexpectedly strong, even though the Fed has raised interest rates to a more than two-decade high.

Fed officials have been debating how long they need to leave rates at their current level, about 5.3 percent. Elevated borrowing costs make it expensive for people to borrow to buy a house or expand a business, and that can weigh on the economy over time. While the Fed has been trying to tamp down demand enough to bring inflation under control, officials want to avoid crushing growth to the point that it leads to widespread job losses or a recession.

But some economists have been worried that it could be harder to slow inflation the rest of the way than it has been to achieve the progress so far. And Fed officials want to avoid lowering interest rates too early, only to find out that inflation is not fully quashed.

�We don�t want to have a situation where it turns out that the six months of good inflation data we had last year didn�t turn out to be an accurate signal of where underlying inflation is,� Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said while testifying before Congress last week. Given that, he said, the Fed is being careful.

But Mr. Powell also said last week that when the Fed was confident that inflation had come down enough, �and we�re not far from it,� then it would be appropriate to lower interest rates.

�Overall, the view that disinflation is in the economy � that is still intact,� Ms. Bostjancic said following the fresh inflation report. �But it keeps them in a wait-and-see mode to really have that confidence that they should start cutting rates.�

The Fed aims for 2 percent yearly inflation. It defines that goal using a separate but related inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures measure. That index incorporates some data from the Consumer Price Index figures, but comes out at more of a delay.

[...]

# ? Mar 12, 2024 16:15

mrmcd: Feb 22, 2003; Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

Market seems to be shrugging it off though. :shrug:

# ? Mar 12, 2024 16:58

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

What does it mean when "inflation minus food and fuel" stays higher than overall inflation for more than six months? I know the cause, I think, price shocks from Russian invasion of Ukraine finally shaking out, but looking at that graph, it only happens a handful of times for more than a short period of time

Excluding energy and food is 3.8% which is just a hair under the classic 4% we saw for most of the 90s

# ? Mar 12, 2024 17:16

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

It literally means food and fuel are not rising in price as fast as everything else. I think the metric is given with and without them because they're specifically known to be more volatile than other measured items?

# ? Mar 12, 2024 17:24

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

This is what they mean by "Core inflation". It assumes that food and fuel prices are to variable to be measured on a month by month basis, and calculates inflation off of everything else.

Transportation services covers everything from car maintenance to plane tickets to used car prices to taxi fares to subway fees.

# ? Mar 12, 2024 17:52

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

I forgot they still track tobacco lol

e. "food at home" and "other food at home"??

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:03

bob dobbs is dead: Oct 8, 2017; I love peeps; Nap Ghost

main food at home is grain, bakery products, meat (poultry, fish), eggs, dairy, and fruits/vegetables. so "other food at home" is processed food, mainly

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:09

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Leperflesh posted:

I forgot they still track tobacco lol

I wonder if they are throwing all the nicotine products in there now. Maybe that's in "other food at home" or something, heh. I think the components of the baskets are listed somewhere.

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:11

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Baddog posted:

I wonder if they are throwing all the nicotine products in there now. Maybe that's in "other food at home" or something, heh. I think the components of the baskets are listed somewhere.

I suspect it includes vape products for sure.

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:13

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

yeah I expect "and smoking products" includes vaping juice, maybe legal mary J too?

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:13

Lockback: Sep 3, 2006; All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Leperflesh posted:

e. "food at home" and "other food at home"??

The good cookies your mom hides.

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:24

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

bob dobbs is dead posted:

main food at home is grain, bakery products, meat (poultry, fish), eggs, dairy, and fruits/vegetables. so "other food at home" is processed food, mainly

there's also a meat, poultry, fish, eggs entry separately though

OK so I decided to actually find out, here's a complete list of the actual items sampled in each category
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/entry-level-item-descriptions.htm

It's uhhh, well. There are some choices in there. I'm sure many millions of man-hours have been spent within the BLS debating exactly what items should or shouldn't be there, but still, it's kind of a fascinating scroll.

Pigs get four categories, but lamb is grouped in with all game meats. Apples and bananas each have their own category, but then there's "other fresh fruits" for literally everything else (except tomatoes, which aren't fruit according to the BLS)
Tomatoes, potatoes, and lettuce are each their own category, but all other fresh veg is lumped together along with herbs, except prepared salads which are their own category
All canned fruits and vegetables go together in one category.
Sugar is lumped in with artificial sweeteners.
There's a single category for all frozen prepared food, but a separate category for olives, pickles, and relishes.

I can keep going but it's just kinda interesting to think about. Like if there's a change in egg prices that's carefully tracked, but if canned pumpkin skyrockets due to a pumpkin blight or something, that's completely subsumed by the stable price of canned corn, tomatoes, and beans. If Splenda gets super expensive that probably is dwarfed by the sale of sugar so it doesn't even show up. But anything that affects banana prices is going to be very specifically visible in the metrics.

Anyway, this list doesn't split out "food at home" and "other food at home" so I got no idea what the gently caress golden bubble's chart.

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:26

Lockback: Sep 3, 2006; All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

I suspect the groupings are less about what things are and more about how things are bought and what things are substituted for each other. Like in your pumpkin blight example, if canned pumpkin shoots up it probably would mean less of that purchased and more of things like canned peaches. Grouping things in this way probably gives you a better view on people's actual bottom lines.

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:29

Baddog: May 12, 2001

BLS posted:

Food at home refers to the total expenditures for food at grocery stores (or other food stores) and food prepared by the consumer unit on trips. It excludes the purchase of nonfood items.

Not really relevant, I'm just cracking up at referring to people as "consumer units"

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:30

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

It's supposed to represent a reasonable average consumption basket. Canned pumpkin shouldn't have a meaningful impact on the metric because Americans don't eat much canned pumpkin.

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:31

Inept: Jul 8, 2003

Here's more of a breakdown for each component and how it's weighted

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2023.htm

Tobacco and smoking products is still basically just cigarettes and other tobacco like cigars and chew

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:33

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Inept posted:

Here's more of a breakdown for each component and how it's weighted

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2023.htm

Tobacco and smoking products is still basically just cigarettes and other tobacco like cigars and chew

Man, this really needs to be nested to be understandable.

So "other foods at home" is:

Sugar and sugar substitutes
Candy and chewing gum
Other sweets

Butter and margarine
Salad dressing
Other fats and oils including peanut butter

Soups
Frozen and freeze dried prepared foods
Snacks
Spices, seasonings, condiments, sauces
Baby food and formula
Other miscellaneous foods

# ? Mar 12, 2024 18:42

Lockback: Sep 3, 2006; All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Baddog posted:

Not really relevant, I'm just cracking up at referring to people as "consumer units"

I gotcha consumer unit righ here!

*lewdly grabs a suburban family of 4*

# ? Mar 12, 2024 19:03

pyknosis: Nov 23, 2007; Young Orc

Lockback posted:

I suspect the groupings are less about what things are and more about how things are bought and what things are substituted for each other. Like in your pumpkin blight example, if canned pumpkin shoots up it probably would mean less of that purchased and more of things like canned peaches. Grouping things in this way probably gives you a better view on people's actual bottom lines.

what recipe are you substituting peaches for pumpkin

# ? Mar 12, 2024 21:28

TooMuchAbstraction: Oct 14, 2012; I spent four years making
Waves of Steel
Hell yes I'm going to turn my avatar into an ad for it.; Fun Shoe

pyknosis posted:

what recipe are you substituting peaches for pumpkin

Given that it's canned pumpkin, probably in pies?

# ? Mar 12, 2024 21:30

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

Leperflesh posted:

I forgot they still track tobacco lol

The price of Zyn is too drat high! :mad:

# ? Mar 12, 2024 22:51

Lockback: Sep 3, 2006; All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

pyknosis posted:

what recipe are you substituting peaches for pumpkin

TooMuchAbstraction posted:

Given that it's canned pumpkin, probably in pies?

Right a consumer will say "Wow, pumpkin is really expensive, we'll do apple/peach/cherry pie or whatever instead. These are all mostly very elastic goods and people usually operate under a concept of "I'll spend $xx on desserts" and not "I must have this specific pie regardless of cost".

# ? Mar 12, 2024 23:06

tumblr hype man: Jul 29, 2008; nice meltdown; Slippery Tilde

TooMuchAbstraction posted:

Given that it's canned pumpkin, probably in pies?

Added to my expensive dog�s expensive dog food.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 00:04

drk: Jan 16, 2005

Economics and current events: a consumer unit of other miscellaneous foods

# ? Mar 13, 2024 00:50

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

I love that there's still a place here to do things like dig into BLS commodity classification.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 03:31

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

The FT's reporting is sort of vague about this, but there are apparently reports that the admin might try to block the buyout of US Steel by Nippon Steel.

https://www.ft.com/content/7ff471b1-a3c6-4d3d-bc45-eb482f81d74d

I guess the optics of the Japanese buying one of the companies who helped supply the war effort during WW2 doesn't look great, but that was a long time ago.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 19:01

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

Agronox posted:

The FT's reporting is sort of vague about this, but there are apparently reports that the admin might try to block the buyout of US Steel by Nippon Steel.

https://www.ft.com/content/7ff471b1-a3c6-4d3d-bc45-eb482f81d74d

I guess the optics of the Japanese buying one of the companies who helped supply the war effort during WW2 doesn't look great, but that was a long time ago.

Alternative link

https://archive.is/2024.03.13-164754/https://www.ft.com/content/7ff471b1-a3c6-4d3d-bc45-eb482f81d74d

I thought this was amusing,

ft posted:

United Steelworkers said.... “We remain convinced that the company does not fully understand its obligations to Steelworkers, retirees and our communities,” it said in a letter to its members.

Japan is famous for keeping industrial workers on the payroll no matter what. Arguably steel workers are in better hands with the Japanese than anti-union American ones.

It seems to me like this is a huge national security risk, but the last time this came up in the thread I was assured it wouldn't be a problem :iiam:

# ? Mar 13, 2024 19:17

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Hadlock posted:

It seems to me like this is a huge national security risk, but the last time this came up in the thread I was assured it wouldn't be a problem

US Steel is different because they aren�t just an electric arc. They�re an old school blast furnace.

Separately and you won�t see this discussed, geographically and logistically it�s about the most convenient place on the planet. Everything one needs for the process is available from other places on the Great Lakes, and all of it can be transported by self unloading bulk carrier directly. It�s not the cheapest place to make steel in a blast furnace. But it�s the place where it�s easiest to quickly get everything to make steel in a blast furnace in the world, and it�s all available from US/Canadian locations and the transportation infrastructure is there in the self unloading fleet.

From a national security perspective� they shouldn�t allow it.

But USS management hasn�t exactly been doing a good job, and Nippon would probably do a better one and treat its employees better. So I dunno crap shoot honestly.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 19:45

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

What's the actual national security risk?

# ? Mar 13, 2024 19:47

TooMuchAbstraction: Oct 14, 2012; I spent four years making
Waves of Steel
Hell yes I'm going to turn my avatar into an ad for it.; Fun Shoe

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

What's the actual national security risk?

Mismanagement putting the company into ill health, which causes the country to become reliant on imports from unreliable trade partners.

I don't think that a Japanese firm would have any incentive to intentionally sabotage the company. Japanese and American interests on the international stage are thoroughly aligned, and will be for the foreseeable future.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 19:56

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

What's the actual national security risk?

There are only two blast furnace operators left in the US.

Arc furnaces are reliant on the scrap steel trade. It�s more accurate to think of arcs like steel recycling facilities.

Blast furnaces are the places where you turn raw materials, ore, sand and coke into pig iron and then steel. Like it�s the most basic root of any countries ability to male things to fight a war. If you don�t have blast furnaces, you can�t wage model industrial war if it involves a real disruption of international trade.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 19:59

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Right the argument for allowing it is that the Japanese are close allies, it�s still physical here, and they�ll run it more effectively.

Honestly I think we should pull the trigger on it and also let them build our new navy vessels in their shipyards.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 20:03

Cyrano4747: Sep 25, 2006; Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

It's also a capability that when it goes away the cost of re-establishing it becomes prohibitive.

Being under Japanese ownership/management isn't the risk. The risk is that in 10, 20, 40 years they decide it isn't profitable enough to keep open and shut it down, and then in that many years +20 we decide (for whatever reason) that we need or want that capability again.

Trade is wonderful, but there are real risks to being dependent on someone across an ocean for things.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 20:09

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Bar Ran Dun posted:

the Japanese are close allies, it�s still physical here, and they�ll run it more effectively.

this

and yah, it's dumb as hell if the alternatives are allowing a monopoly on domestic steel production or letting it rot through mismanagement

or pouring subsidies into it

There were apparently 3 other bidders though. But Nippon and Cleveland Cliffs were the highest obviously.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 20:10

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Don't you run the same risk of shutdown with US Steel as the owner? Aren't the recourses (subsidies, nationalization, etc) functionally the same?

# ? Mar 13, 2024 20:11

Lockback: Sep 3, 2006; All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Hadlock posted:

Japan is famous for keeping industrial workers on the payroll no matter what. Arguably steel workers are in better hands with the Japanese than anti-union American ones.

I don't know that this is true when the people are not japanese though.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 20:40

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

Don't you run the same risk of shutdown with US Steel as the owner? Aren't the recourses (subsidies, nationalization, etc) functionally the same?

Probably higher these buyers know exactly what they are getting into. There�s not any way to hide the vessel transits that deliver input materials to the facility. So separate from any investigation to financials when they bid, they can know the real material / logistical truth about what they are buying and how productive USS has actually been.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 21:10

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

It's probably inevitable that the US steel industry slowly divests from their BOFs anyway. Their emissions are vastly higher than EAFs and EAFs are more flexible.

US Steel is getting a large modern EAF online down in Arkansas. It's likely to be their crown jewel asset. The facility cost like $3b to build and with today's construction prices its cost to replace would be a lot more. I suspect that's why Nippon was really interested in the first place.

# ? Mar 13, 2024 23:32

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 17:17

bob dobbs is dead: Oct 8, 2017; I love peeps; Nap Ghost

dentists often have tiny little electric arc furnaces for fillings in their offices. just the tiniest little version of an industrial machine where the economizing version's size is the size of an office building

# ? Mar 13, 2024 23:42

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Economics and current events, no-tweet, no-tiktok: you posted a damn advertisement

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