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Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Branch Nvidian posted:

I think it's perfectly reasonable for Nvidia to have halo products like the 4090, I just wish that them having a halo product didn't also make them feel justified in jacking up the prices of the lower end cards too.

Regarding Intel and AMD, I think prices are what they are in that market because they actually compete with one another. Remember during the Bulldozer era AMD wasn't even a consideration for anyone, and Intel was jacking up their pricing because they could. AMD and Intel have reached a kind of equilibrium now, but one wrong move will likely result in the other company increasing prices through the roof if they can get away with it. AMD is still kind of seen as an also-ran in the GPU market due to their ray-tracing support being so far behind Nvidia's.

Yeah, that's why it'd require collusion, because they are competing. But I think AMD and Intel could sell the top gaming-focused chips, like the current 7800X3D or 14700K or such, for twice what they currently do, and most would still buy it. Which is why it's weird that they don't collude to do so, lol.

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Inept
Jul 8, 2003

whenever anyone thinks they spent a lot on a video card and half a dozen people post within an hour to validate them

do what you wanna, but buying gpus doesn't need to be a hugbox

change my name
Aug 27, 2007

Legends die but anime is forever.

RIP The Lost Otakus.

I got my 4070 ti free from work

Cygni
Nov 12, 2005

raring to post

Branch Nvidian posted:

Regarding Intel and AMD, I think prices are what they are in that market because they actually compete with one another. Remember during the Bulldozer era AMD wasn't even a consideration for anyone, and Intel was jacking up their pricing because they could.

Between Sandy Bridge and Coffee Lake when Construction cores were still coming off the line, the top Intel consumer desktop CPU always had the same price: $300-350. If you apply the same “top of the stack” mindset that lots of people seem stuck on for GPUs, the price increase in CPUs is roughly the same as GPUs. The top end consumer desktop part now is roughly 2x the price of what it was in 2018.

Of course I think that’s a dumb way to measure things for lots of reasons, but it’s a common refrain when people talk about GPU pricing. I agree that the more competitive market in CPUs is driving innovation and keeping prices in check, as a general statement.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Canned Sunshine posted:

Yeah, exactly.

Mainly I want to see nvidia keep jacking up prices to see at what point people actually would think twice about upgrading or would wait.

Personally I think that point is like $5K.

Edit:

I'm also surprised that AMD and Intel haven't colluded to jack up CPU prices a lot more, since if people are willing to pay so much for GPUs, they'd be willing to pay a lot more for CPUs too.

It's two different pools of consumers, and I think we're already there.

On the one hand you've got the people who buy $1k+ halo products. I think that group is going to be incredibly price insensitive, mostly because it's a bunch of people who either 1) need that kind of grunt for business/professional purposes and can justify the expense that way or 2) are well to do nerds who can afford to splurge and justify it as ultimately being cheap entertainment on a per hour basis.

On the other hand you've got the down-tier folks who either can't spend that kind of money, are fine playing on 1440 or even 1080, or who just don't think the expense is worthwhile. Basically the people who the 60 and 70 series are for. Those people have been in a weird spot ever since covid. Someone with a 2070 could get away with skipping the 30 series and crazy price gouging of the covid/bitcoin years, but ponying up for a 40 series became kind of necessary if they weren't going to get out of the hobby. But I really think that come the 50 series there is going to be a lot more reluctance to spend $350 on an entry-tier card or $650 on a mid-tier one.

I don't have any real predictions, just a lot of anecdata from friends who are either down-shifting their graphical needs, moving to console, or just getting out of gaming entirely.

Shipon
Nov 7, 2005

shrike82 posted:

i don't think people should feel guilty about getting a pricey GPU if they're gaming on it - gaming's still an affordable hobby in the grand scheme of things

after finally buying a new car i completely realized how true this is. god if i want to do /anything/ to it it's going to make a 4090 look cheap as hell

kliras
Mar 27, 2021
i like the concept of consoles, but having just bought a ps5 slim and hearing of an upcoming ps5 pro later this year kinda kills my excitement over consoles, especially since the performance and quality targets continue to be completely arbitrary. add to this that sony aren't the best at discounting their $70 games compared to something like steam

i'm still getting my money's worth in some way, but i don't think there's a great magical alternative to turn to, unfortunately

then there's something like steam deck where you can find communities of people who try to find games that run well on their own specific devices which will hopefully drive pc devs to optimize their games more for the not-4090 crowd

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Shipon posted:

after finally buying a new car i completely realized how true this is. god if i want to do /anything/ to it it's going to make a 4090 look cheap as hell

Car hobbyists are in an ultra luxury/wealth tier well above gaming hobbyists though.

Branch Nvidian
Nov 29, 2012



Canned Sunshine posted:

Car hobbyists are in an ultra luxury/wealth tier well above gaming hobbyists though.

I think there are two versions of car hobbyists though. There are the ones you're talking about, doing custom mods to high end cars; and then there are the shitbox car guys who just keep buying each other's 3/4 working beaters and fixing them up a bit before they all buy each other's cars again. Both are serious money sinks, but one costs considerably more money than the other.

I know someone in the Volkswagen shitbox community that has owned the same Jetta like four times.

ConanTheLibrarian
Aug 13, 2004


dis buch is late
Fallen Rib

Canned Sunshine posted:

Mainly I want to see nvidia keep jacking up prices to see at what point people actually would think twice about upgrading or would wait.
If the increasing time between new process nodes (at least for TSMC) leads to longer generation times for GPUs, the extra expense may be worth it.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

ConanTheLibrarian posted:

If the increasing time between new process nodes (at least for TSMC) leads to longer generation times for GPUs, the extra expense may be worth it.

It all depends on what your target is. This is the thing that I think gets lost in a lot of these discussions.

Consoles provide a pretty hard hardware floor that AAA releases have to be minimally functional on, and if you're pushing 1440 or 1080 you can get away with a LOT less graphical horsepower.

It's the change-over in console generations that would worry me. Buying a 4090 about a third of the way through a current console gen? Yeah, that's going to stay relevant a loving loooong time. But I could see something like a 5090 or 6090 being bought right before the next console gen drops having significantly shorter legs, comparatively, just because that minimum hardware floor rises soon after purchase.

PirateBob
Jun 14, 2003

Cyrano4747 posted:

It all depends on what your target is. This is the thing that I think gets lost in a lot of these discussions.

Consoles provide a pretty hard hardware floor that AAA releases have to be minimally functional on, and if you're pushing 1440 or 1080 you can get away with a LOT less graphical horsepower.

It's the change-over in console generations that would worry me. Buying a 4090 about a third of the way through a current console gen? Yeah, that's going to stay relevant a loving loooong time. But I could see something like a 5090 or 6090 being bought right before the next console gen drops having significantly shorter legs, comparatively, just because that minimum hardware floor rises soon after purchase.

There's no way a 5090 gets outpaced by the PS6 era's console gpus.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

I really hope 5000 series goes back to sensible power usage. Smaller and more efficient would be great. Apple is making laptops that use 50W max and can play Resident evil, I don’t want to have a freakin 400W component to play games in Ultra settings

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Branch Nvidian posted:

I think there are two versions of car hobbyists though. There are the ones you're talking about, doing custom mods to high end cars; and then there are the shitbox car guys who just keep buying each other's 3/4 working beaters and fixing them up a bit before they all buy each other's cars again. Both are serious money sinks, but one costs considerably more money than the other.

I know someone in the Volkswagen shitbox community that has owned the same Jetta like four times.
Yeah this is my rally Fit, it cost me as much as a whole RTX 4070:



My nice car is a 20 year old Miata that cost less than some PCs ITT.

But yeah of course even a single tank of gas is a decent fraction of a GPU cost, though personally the experiences just feel more worth it than having somewhat shinier reflections or whatever

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

PirateBob posted:

There's no way a 5090 gets outpaced by the PS6 era's console gpus.
You misunderstand. I'm not saying it gets outpaced, I'm saying that if you guy the flagship on the cusp of a new console release you have a higher minimum hardware target for more of your card's lifespan.

Part of what is going to make the 4090 such a long lived card is software being anchored by the PS5 for a good chunk of its life span.

change my name
Aug 27, 2007

Legends die but anime is forever.

RIP The Lost Otakus.

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

I really hope 5000 series goes back to sensible power usage. Smaller and more efficient would be great. Apple is making laptops that use 50W max and can play Resident evil, I don’t want to have a freakin 400W component to play games in Ultra settings

This is not going to happen. I suspect each tier’s power draw will remain the same since they didn’t really move much between the 30 and 40 series (ie, 220 watt 5070, 320 watt 5080, 450 watt 5090)

Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

Nfcknblvbl posted:

A bunch of us will still buy the 5090 at $3k. It'll sell out instantly, be out of stock for well over a year, and will be sold for $400 over MSRP indefinitely.

People forget that that 5090 buyers can sell their used 4090 for similiar high price then as well. Depends on the 5080 pricetag and VRAM obviously as well.

The ASUS Strix 4090 for example still is listed at 2200 Euro even 1,5 years after release in the ASUS shop.

If a 5090 is launched for insane 3000 Euro, I have no problems selling my 4090 Strix for 1500 Euro (e: in Germany) .
And this would be already a 50% funding for a 5090 at 3000 Euro.

It would be a Deja Vu: Everyond one told us the 3090 would be sunk cost and drop to 700 as soon as Ada launches.
How wrong they and we were. I sold my 3090 Strix for 1200 Euro after 2 years of user because the 4090 (and 4080) were so expensive.
The 24 GB VRAM are a selling point as well obviously.

Used markets for the 4090 will adapt and sell as high as possible depending on a - maybe - even more expensive 5090.

Mr.PayDay fucked around with this message at 22:42 on Mar 13, 2024

PirateBob
Jun 14, 2003

Cyrano4747 posted:

You misunderstand. I'm not saying it gets outpaced, I'm saying that if you guy the flagship on the cusp of a new console release you have a higher minimum hardware target for more of your card's lifespan.

Part of what is going to make the 4090 such a long lived card is software being anchored by the PS5 for a good chunk of its life span.

I understand the point. I just don't think the higher floor coming sooner after release will matter very much when the 5090 will be at least 2x more powerful than whatever they put in the next gen consoles (guesstimate of course).

Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

PirateBob posted:

I understand the point. I just don't think the higher floor coming sooner after release will matter very much when the 5090 will be at least 2x more powerful than whatever they put in the next gen consoles (guesstimate of course).

Do we have an ETA for the PlayStation 6?
It could be an RDNA 5 architecture and Zen 6 maybe in late 2026?

Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


Mr.PayDay posted:

Do we have an ETA for the PlayStation 6?
It could be an RDNA 5 architecture and Zen 6 maybe in late 2026?

Regardless of the architecture they'll still be targeting a mass market price point at something like a third (or a quarter if Nvidia keeps ramping the price) of the sticker price for an XX90, so there will be compromises made on the performance front.

Smithwick
Jun 20, 2003

kliras posted:

it's the same thing with keyboards and chairs; you spend so much time using them that it's probably your best $/usage purchase

(unless you buy a 4090 only to game in 1080p)

Seriously people, buy a quality chair. Your body will thank you for literally decades. Steelcase gang in the house!

Branch Nvidian
Nov 29, 2012



Smithwick posted:

Seriously people, buy a quality chair. Your body will thank you for literally decades. Steelcase gang in the house!

Embody Bros.

Seriously though I didn’t realize just how bad my Secretlab Titan Evo Gaming Chair was until I got this Embody.

Branch Nvidian fucked around with this message at 23:39 on Mar 13, 2024

MixMasterMalaria
Jul 26, 2007

Cyrano4747 posted:

It all depends on what your target is. This is the thing that I think gets lost in a lot of these discussions.

Consoles provide a pretty hard hardware floor that AAA releases have to be minimally functional on, and if you're pushing 1440 or 1080 you can get away with a LOT less graphical horsepower.

It's the change-over in console generations that would worry me. Buying a 4090 about a third of the way through a current console gen? Yeah, that's going to stay relevant a loving loooong time. But I could see something like a 5090 or 6090 being bought right before the next console gen drops having significantly shorter legs, comparatively, just because that minimum hardware floor rises soon after purchase.

Conversely I feel like it's a huge mistake to buy a marked up 4090 so late in the generation. 5090 (conceivably) will play ps6 tier games well enough and so be relevant for a good 6-7 years.

Branch Nvidian
Nov 29, 2012



Mr.PayDay posted:

Do we have an ETA for the PlayStation 6?
It could be an RDNA 5 architecture and Zen 6 maybe in late 2026?

Jesus are we really at that point in be console generation already? It feels like the PS5 and XBSX still barely have any games.

lordfrikk
Mar 11, 2010

Oh, say it ain't fuckin' so,
you stupid fuck!
https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/14/24072692/sony-ps5-forecast-cut-q3-2023-earnings

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011
It's been about three and a half years since the PS5 launched, and the PS4's launch was seven years before the PS5's. I guess it's technically the latter half of the console's lifecycle if another seven year span is what they're aiming for, but it sounds patently ridiculous for Sony to treat it like that.

Dr. Video Games 0031
Jul 17, 2004

2026 is way too soon. The last generation lasted for eight years, and this one might last even longer. Nobody in this climate is going to buy a new console that's just an incremental upgrade over the old one, so they need to wait until they can produce an affordable box that is leaps and bounds better than the PS5, and that's not happening until 2028 at minimum.

edit: i guess the last gen was 7 years, but i still think this will be an 8-year gen at minimum, with a mid-gen refresh.

Dr. Video Games 0031 fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Mar 14, 2024

MixMasterMalaria
Jul 26, 2007

Kazinsal posted:

It's been about three and a half years since the PS5 launched, and the PS4's launch was seven years before the PS5's. I guess it's technically the latter half of the console's lifecycle if another seven year span is what they're aiming for, but it sounds patently ridiculous for Sony to treat it like that.

Why?

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?
Games are also too expensive on the dev side. Sony’s president recently made waves by calling out PlayStation’s low profit margins. I don’t think they’re in a hurry to get the PS6 out.

MagusDraco
Nov 11, 2011

even speedwagon was trolled

Because the console launched in the pandemic and that made it hard to find for over a year and also delayed a ton of games. It definitely doesn't feel like the PS5 has been out for 3.5 years.

Branch Nvidian
Nov 29, 2012



Dr. Video Games 0031 posted:

2026 is way too soon. The last generation lasted for eight years, and this one might last even longer. Nobody in this climate is going to buy a new console that's just an incremental upgrade over the old one, so they need to wait until they can produce an affordable box that is leaps and bounds better than the PS5, and that's not happening until 2028 at minimum.

edit: i guess the last gen was 7 years, but i still think this will be an 8-year gen at minimum, with a mid-gen refresh.

The PS4 Pro really did feel like a substantial improvement over the base PS4 when I upgraded mine, but I find it hard to believe any refresh in this generation is going to result in me feeling the need to replace my existing PS5. The PS4 and Xbone were based on pretty poo poo-tier laptop chips iirc (please correct me if I'm wrong), so the boost made sense last time. This time it's custom mid-range PC silicon from 2019-2020.

repiv
Aug 13, 2009

the last gen systems were based on poo poo-tier laptop chips but the mid-cycle refresh didn't do much to change that, they kept the same architecture and just bumped up the clocks a little bit

nearly all of the gains were from making the GPU bigger

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

MagusDraco posted:

Because the console launched in the pandemic and that made it hard to find for over a year and also delayed a ton of games. It definitely doesn't feel like the PS5 has been out for 3.5 years.

I don't think this will stop them.

The real question is going to be if they hobble the new gen with requiring support for the old gen for the first 2 years, like they did this time.

Dr. Video Games 0031
Jul 17, 2004

Branch Nvidian posted:

The PS4 Pro really did feel like a substantial improvement over the base PS4 when I upgraded mine, but I find it hard to believe any refresh in this generation is going to result in me feeling the need to replace my existing PS5. The PS4 and Xbone were based on pretty poo poo-tier laptop chips iirc (please correct me if I'm wrong), so the boost made sense last time. This time it's custom mid-range PC silicon from 2019-2020.

Yeah, I mean, in 2026, if Sony were to keep the same pricing then they'd probably be looking at a console that's only twice as powerful as the PS5. That's how slow the price-to-performance improvements have gotten. They need to wait longer to have a decent gen-on-gen improvement while also probably raising the price of the base model.

Cyrano4747 posted:

I don't think this will stop them.

The real question is going to be if they hobble the new gen with requiring support for the old gen for the first 2 years, like they did this time.

They didn't require support for the PS4 this gen. That just happened naturally as a result of pandemic shortages and delays.

Branch Nvidian
Nov 29, 2012



MagusDraco posted:

Because the console launched in the pandemic and that made it hard to find for over a year and also delayed a ton of games. It definitely doesn't feel like the PS5 has been out for 3.5 years.

Yeah, at present the PS5 has the following actual released exclusive games (as in don't also have PS4 versions), some of which will be on PC but aren't yet:
Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth (timed exclusive)
Eternights
Marvel's Spider-Man 2
Final Fantasy XVI (timed exclusive)
Horizon Forbidden West: Burning Shores
Astro's Playroom
Bramble: The Mountain King
Demon's Souls Remake
Destruction AllStars
Horizon Call of the Mountain VR
Pacific Drive
Ratchet and Clank: Rift Apart
Returnal
Season: A Letter to the Future
The Dark Pictures: Switchback VR
Tchia

Upcoming exclusives that may eventually get a PC and/or Xbox release:
Rise of the Ronin
Stellar Blade
Silent Hill 2 Remake
Death Stranding 2
Marvel's Wolverine
Knights of the Old Republic Remake
Concord
Marathon
Fairgam$
Sword of the Sea
Phantom Blade 0

So in 3.5 years we've gotten 16 games that are ONLY available on the PS5, at least as of right now, though we know the Final Fantasy games will be on PC eventually and there's a good chance Spider-Man 2 and Horizon Forbidden West will be on PC also at some point. And then there are 11 announced games, of which I'd expect Silent Hill 2 Remake, Death Stranding 2, and Knights of the Old Republic to likely get eventual PC releases. Fantastic generation so far, so many console selling exclusives.

repiv
Aug 13, 2009

Branch Nvidian posted:

and there's a good chance Spider-Man 2 and Horizon Forbidden West will be on PC also at some point

:ssh: https://store.steampowered.com/app/2420110/Horizon_Forbidden_West_Complete_Edition/

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

Cyrano4747 posted:

I don't think this will stop them.

The real question is going to be if they hobble the new gen with requiring support for the old gen for the first 2 years, like they did this time.

That might just be how things work from now on, because new tech is so expensive. As in you both want to maximize your audience, and getting the most out of new hardware is prohibitively expensive out of the gate.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Branch Nvidian posted:



So in 3.5 years we've gotten 16 games that are ONLY available on the PS5, at least as of right now, though we know the Final Fantasy games will be on PC eventually and there's a good chance Spider-Man 2 and Horizon Forbidden West will be on PC also at some point. And then there are 11 announced games, of which I'd expect Silent Hill 2 Remake, Death Stranding 2, and Knights of the Old Republic to likely get eventual PC releases. Fantastic generation so far, so many console selling exclusives.

You're not wrong, but now compare it to the number of XBox-only (as in no PC release) exclusives.

I'll be the first one to get cynical as hell about the PS's library, but if you're in the market for a ~$500 gaming machine it's hard to find a compelling argument for XBox without leaning on game pass.

edit: for the record, as someone who owns both a gaming PC and a PS I'm loving thrilled that Microsoft doesn't give a gently caress about XBox exclusives and puts everything on PC.

Branch Nvidian
Nov 29, 2012




lmfao, I hadn't heard it was actually being released on PC. I had seen that some people were real mad about Ghost of Tsushima getting a PC release though.

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Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Branch Nvidian posted:

lmfao, I hadn't heard it was actually being released on PC. I had seen that some people were real mad about Ghost of Tsushima getting a PC release though.

Those people are idiots.

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