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Dat 5th year option tho
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Mar 15, 2024 17:57
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I was wondering how often the first QB taken turns out to be the best QB in a given draft (so not counting UDFAs). going back to realignment, it looks like about half the time (11/22) you're getting the best* QB in a class, with a handful of years (2010, 2015, 2019, possibly 2021 pending the next two seasons) where even getting the best QB doesn't mean all that much for your franchise. *I categorized 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2020 as pushes where QB1 is arguably the best but other guys have good cases quote:2002: QB1 - David Carr so out of 22 drafts, 8 QB1s went on to be the best in their class who were franchise-changing players - a bit better than 36% - but if they aren't at least in the discussion for best in class, the absolute ceiling is Alex Smith
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Mar 15, 2024 18:54
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Did you forget Mahomes on purpose or
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Mar 15, 2024 19:00
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No, I think k Taysom Hill was the best QB drafted in 2017
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Mar 15, 2024 19:01
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I forgot EJ Manuel was a first rounder lol
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Mar 15, 2024 19:06
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I prefer looking at QB's taken 1:1. Because there are so few times where a QB was a 1:1 player in the draft, that they didn't look at least decent, even if they aren't https://twitter.com/DaveKluge/status/1747397129138479457 https://twitter.com/DaveKluge/status/1747397134242939276 I don't think it's implausible that Caleb isn't the best QB in the draft, but like it is very rare that a QB is 1:1 and outright bad. The breakpoints are obviously arbitrary, but I'm not particularly worried about Caleb. Even like an average pretty decent QB would be the best QB I've ever seen in a bears uniform. https://twitter.com/DaveKluge/status/1747397144204472367
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Mar 15, 2024 19:15
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I like how that treats drafting a QB as if explaining it to a gambling addict
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Mar 15, 2024 19:17
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CharlestheHammer posted:I like how that treats drafting a QB as if explaining it to a gambling addict Not an inaccurate way of describing it.
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Mar 15, 2024 19:20
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herbert's better than burrow even if you don't count injury stuff against joe but there is room for burrow and some of his magical moments to incorrectly have the public opinion by the time their careers are over. or sit out the next 2 years and retire
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Mar 15, 2024 19:24
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Dexo posted:I prefer looking at QB's taken 1:1. well I wasn't trying to look at how well QB1s play in particular, just if they're the best vs the field overall. even if they aren't taken 1:1 the odds of them being very good franchise players are still so much better than any particular subsequently drafted QB#. a bunch of non-QB1 first round QBs in the drafts I looked at turn out very well for their franchises, but if you do the same exercise for QB2 just looking for sustained league-average play you don't even get to a 50% hit rate Cavauro posted:herbert's better than burrow even if you don't count injury stuff against joe but there is room for burrow and some of his magical moments to incorrectly have the public opinion by the time their careers are over. or sit out the next 2 years and retire I dunno man I think that magic stuff is enough to put you over the top, it's why I can't argue against Eli being the best QB in 2004
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Mar 15, 2024 19:36
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Chiefs gonna take Worthy and speed is back on the menu boys
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Mar 15, 2024 19:37
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indigi posted:well I wasn't trying to look at how well QB1s play in particular, just if they're the best vs the field overall. even if they aren't taken 1:1 the odds of them being very good franchise players are still so much better than any particular subsequently drafted QB#. a bunch of non-QB1 first round QBs in the drafts I looked at turn out very well for their franchises, but if you do the same exercise for QB2 just looking for sustained league-average play you don't even get to a 50% hit rate fair brother.
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Mar 15, 2024 19:41
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Intruder posted:banking on next year's pick being top 40 maybe? but yeah agreed Yeah. If the straight numbers make the trade close enough to even, but then you factor in that the pick is of a team starting Sam Darnold at QB, I’d consider putting a finger on the scale for that
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Mar 15, 2024 19:44
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Jean-Paul Shartre posted:Yeah. If the straight numbers make the trade close enough to even, but then you factor in that the pick is of a team starting Sam Darnold at QB, I’d consider putting a finger on the scale for that They’re presumably making the pick to be in a position to trade up to take a QB so that they aren’t starting Sam Darnold next year.
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Mar 15, 2024 19:51
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All for the Vikings trading up and 4 QBs going in the top 10. That would own.
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Mar 15, 2024 19:52
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QBs should definitely go 1, 2, 3, and 4
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Mar 15, 2024 19:54
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a neat cape posted:QBs should definitely go 1, 2, 3, and 4 This feels almost 50/50 happening now. Depends on the cards. Hard to pass up any of the top 3 WR and WR is a total.need for them All I know that whoever is going to get odunze is getting the best WR. Dude can do it all. I'm so hyped to see him in the NFL and herbs throwing to him would be choice
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Mar 16, 2024 00:07
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QBs are far, far more important than anything else, and I like JJ and he helped get us a natty, but if he is taken at the No. 4 pick, then lol lmao
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Mar 16, 2024 00:23
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JJ to the Vikings sounds plausible. I doubt the Cardinals will pass up Marvin Harrison Jr
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Mar 16, 2024 00:28
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EmbryoSteve posted:This feels almost 50/50 happening now. Depends on the cards. Hard to pass up any of the top 3 WR and WR is a total.need for them Without Keenan, I think I actually prefer Odunze over Nabers. Provided Harrison is gone
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Mar 16, 2024 00:44
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I'd replace Kyler Murray with any QB in this draft
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Mar 16, 2024 00:54
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Id take Caleb and Maye but not Jayden or JJ For anything except contract related things if I had to.
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Mar 16, 2024 00:58
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I'd take Michael Pratt and Bo Nix over Kyler
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Mar 16, 2024 01:42
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I think that is insane but God speed.
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Mar 16, 2024 01:47
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Doltos posted:I'd take Michael Pratt and Bo Nix over Kyler Your assessment of goons making awful GMs has never been more true.
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Mar 16, 2024 01:54
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Spent the last 2 years injured and can't make a throw beyond 5 yards ya I'd trade with all of you as a GM
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Mar 16, 2024 01:59
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I'd just draft the largest men. All offensive line and nose tackles
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Mar 16, 2024 02:09
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Sweat #1 overall
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Mar 16, 2024 02:15
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So Vikings might trade up again for a QB, Chargers now need a receiver, Giants are rumored to have QB interest. How far is Brock falling?
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Mar 16, 2024 02:18
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Calidus posted:So Vikings might trade up again for a QB, Chargers now need a receiver, Giants are rumored to have QB interest. How far is Brock falling? I'm not sure might is even a question at this point.
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Mar 16, 2024 02:21
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Bowers is gonna go to the Jets now that they don't need a T or he's gonna fall in Cincy's lap
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Mar 16, 2024 03:13
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Is Jerry Rice’s kid any good? Worth a 3rd rounder?xbilkis posted:Bowers is gonna go to the Jets now that they don't need a T They still need an OT tbh.
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Mar 16, 2024 03:14
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Yeah, counting on two 33 year old Tackles to stay healthy all year probably isn't the best bet. https://twitter.com/TampaBayTre/status/1768808641207935101?t=epp9OknuZ_8978SrhhhQuw&s=19
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Mar 16, 2024 03:18
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Diva Cupcake posted:Is Jerry Rice’s kid any good? Worth a 3rd rounder? He's a great route runner and twitchy during it so DBs have trouble bump and running with him. He's also pretty big and has a good catch radius. His big problem is he's slow as gently caress and can't beat coverage that plays off of him.
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Mar 16, 2024 03:22
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Ches Neckbeard posted:I'd just draft the largest men. All offensive line and nose tackles You have my axe
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Mar 16, 2024 03:45
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Doltos posted:I'd replace Kyler Murray with any QB in this draft Let me have new Larry god dammit I want the generational WR for Murray to chronically overthrow on the sidelines
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Mar 16, 2024 03:54
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YOLOsubmarine posted:They’re presumably making the pick to be in a position to trade up to take a QB so that they aren’t starting Sam Darnold next year. Even considering that, whatever QB4 ends up being is likely to take some time getting his feet under him and the Texans have a good chance of getting a high 2nd rounder. Especially since the NFC North is looking pretty good outside of the Vikings.
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Mar 16, 2024 03:58
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wandler20 posted:Yeah, counting on two 33 year old Tackles to stay healthy all year probably isn't the best bet. I've listened to this dude's podcast for a bit but never bothered to learn what he looks like. "Frozen deer in the headlights robot" is an interesting twitter pic choice  And yeah putting as much OL talent as you can find in front of Rodgers seems prudent
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Mar 16, 2024 05:34
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He's pretty cool. He was part of the Bucs beat Pewter Report before moving on to the draft network and now PFF. I don't think he ever anticipated getting to that level but he earned it.
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Mar 16, 2024 05:45
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Gully Foyle posted:Even considering that, whatever QB4 ends up being is likely to take some time getting his feet under him and the Texans have a good chance of getting a high 2nd rounder. Especially since the NFC North is looking pretty good outside of the Vikings. Minnesota put together a pretty good game plan for the very limited guys they had under center after Kirk went down and they just picked up a pretty great runner to lean on. I really wouldn't be surprised to see Minn have a day one starter tbh.
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Mar 16, 2024 05:46
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