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Doctor Malaver
May 23, 2007

Ce qui s'est passé t'a rendu plus fort
In Croatia everybody is running in circles because Zoran Milanovic, the President of the Republic, announced he will run for the PM in the elections next month. First, it may be against the constitution and the Constitutional Court's decision on this is highly anticipated. Second, he could win and remove the eternal center-right HDZ from power, only for the third time in Croatian history. Before his announcement the HDZ's victory wasn't in serious question.

I have mixed feelings about this. Of course I want HDZ out, like every normal person, but I also despise Milanovic and could never understand his popularity. Formerly a dashing left winger, he turned into a hyper-arrogant, aggressive nationalist. Aggressive on a personal level -- he throws insults daily at all sorts of public or private persons, home and abroad. It's widely believed he's an avid cocaine consumer.

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steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
I guess every country has to have one (or more) of those

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Is the Croat supreme court trustworthy?

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Isn't he the crackpot who openly supports Putin even against the wishes of his own party?

Doctor Malaver
May 23, 2007

Ce qui s'est passé t'a rendu plus fort

Mokotow posted:

Is the Croat supreme court trustworthy?

The Constitutional Court (which is not the same as the Supreme Court) is influenced by the ruling party, but not to the extent that they would rule everything in their favor. I heard that they don't like the controversial, recently appointed state attorney so the comedy option is they rule in favor of Milanovic to spite their brethren in the executive branch. But the general expectation, even from people who support Milanovic, is that the CC will and should tell him to GTFO and that he already has a plan B.

Der Kyhe posted:

Isn't he the crackpot who openly supports Putin even against the wishes of his own party?

I wouldn't call him an open supporter, or anti-EU, but he does have the "we should look at our interests and mind our business" angle to his politics. That includes the involvement in the Ukraine war. It's probably a part of his appeal because other top politicians rarely question EU/NATO policies and many voters see them as spinelessly following orders from the big guys.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/1769430326751752226

Almost Assad margins, hillariously shameless
Steady +12% every elections, nothing to see here

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
You hardly even need to cheat when there are no actual opposition candidates in the game and the approved opponents have no popular support at all. But at least we could have had president Slutsky.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Aiming for 99 next time?

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
he was jealous of Tokayev

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Lukashenko is a low energy loser, only wrote himself puny 80%

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

How many votes did the cat get?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Rappaport posted:

How many votes did the cat get?

Kto?

Bright Bart
Apr 27, 2020

False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped

Nenonen posted:

You hardly even need to cheat when there are no actual opposition candidates in the game and the approved opponents have no popular support at all. But at least we could have had president Slutsky.

Reason #1094 why these results are infuriating: You can point to them as evidence that Russia is a bellicose nation and we need to expect to fight them for possibly until the end of human civilization as we know it. You can point to them to show that Putin is a tyrant. But the bootlickers can point to these same results to say there is evidence of the opposite. (They of course miss the fact that it doesn't mean matter because no interpretation paints both the Russian government and society in a good light. Either one of the world's superpowers has been highjacked against the will of over a hundred million Russians, or the same have freely given and continue to give it to Putin to commit heinous acts.)

I suspect that the truth may be the worst of both worlds. That Putin has the support of the majority (although not 87%). That he would have the plurality or even still the majority of votes even in fair elections with free opposition, no propaganda, and no intimidation. But that he brings out of crackdowns, the intimidation, and the propaganda, and cheats on top of it, for the benefits doing so brings. One would be that it is a readily cheap way of seeming like he has near universal support. A grimmer picture may be one others have painted re: him cheating in an obvious way to show his people that he has total control, that he cannot be removed by democratic means, and also to get the support of people who find the classical strong man someone to look up up. (e.g. Generals might be less inclined to commit murders and war crimes for him if there was even a chance he would be voted out and they would have to answer for crimes against humanity.)

Bright Bart fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Mar 17, 2024

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/1769430326751752226

Almost Assad margins, hillariously shameless
Steady +12% every elections, nothing to see here

Record turnout, too!

digitalist
Nov 17, 2000

journey into Kirk's unknown



Kot.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Bright Bart posted:

Reason #1094 why these results are infuriating: You can point to them as evidence that Russia is a bellicose nation and we need to expect to fight them for possibly until the end of human civilization as we know it. You can point to them to show that Putin is a tyrant. But the bootlickers can point to these same results to say there is evidence of the opposite. (They of course miss the fact that it doesn't mean matter because no interpretation paints both the Russian government and society in a good light. Either one of the world's superpowers has been highjacked against the will of over a hundred million Russians, or the same have freely given and continue to give it to Putin to commit heinous acts.)

I suspect that the truth may be the worst of both worlds. That Putin has the support of the majority (although not 87%). That he would have the plurality or even still the majority of votes even in fair elections with free opposition, no propaganda, and no intimidation. But that he brings out of crackdowns, the intimidation, and the propaganda, and cheats on top of it, for the benefits doing so brings. One would be that it is a readily cheap way of seeming like he has near universal support. A grimmer picture may be one others have painted re: him cheating in an obvious way to show his people that he has total control, that he cannot be removed by democratic means, and also to get the support of people who find the classical strong man someone to look up up. (e.g. Generals might be less inclined to commit murders and war crimes for him if there was even a chance he would be voted out and they would have to answer for crimes against humanity.)

Nah, these results are extremely good for anyone except Putin - dictator margins that are look absolutely implausible for anyone inside or outside make the fascimile of a supermajority even more comical and further moves that would have been made with the popular consensus in mind (say, another mobilization wave) are now percieved as playing not the hand that was dealt to him but one he imagines.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

fatherboxx posted:

Nah, these results are extremely good for anyone except Putin - dictator margins that are look absolutely implausible for anyone inside or outside make the fascimile of a supermajority even more comical and further moves that would have been made with the popular consensus in mind (say, another mobilization wave) are now percieved as playing not the hand that was dealt to him but one he imagines.

"hey yall, thanks for your completely normal rally round the flag. we are all one team, i accept your support and promise to continue this war that we all love"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1769472337785532763

yet more edit: i can't believe i forgot to call out SMOKE KHARITONOV ERRYDAY

i want to believe someone in the stats office did that on purpose

in other news, wtf Tashkent and Bishkek, migranty plz

https://twitter.com/alex_yus_/status/1769456232820015519

in lighter news

https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/1768997850002731160

please, nobody tell me this actually aired on rossiya one but at this point idk what they even bother putting on TV, maybe we're looping back around to lenin mushroom segment

Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Mar 17, 2024

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

fatherboxx posted:

Lukashenko is a low energy loser, only wrote himself puny 80%

I don't remember if I first read it in one of these threads but I have a favorite Belarussian joke.

A man is walking down the street when suddenly a couple police officers start beating him up. "Why are you doing this thing?" he cries out. "I voted for Lukashenko!" "Don't lie to us," sneers a cop. "Nobody voted for Lukashenko."

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

in lighter news

https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/1768997850002731160

please, nobody tell me this actually aired on rossiya one but at this point idk what they even bother putting on TV, maybe we're looping back around to lenin mushroom segment

Grigoriy Zamzinov got awake one morning and found himself at the voting booth

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Bright Bart posted:

Reason #1094 why these results are infuriating: You can point to them as evidence that Russia is a bellicose nation and we need to expect to fight them for possibly until the end of human civilization as we know it. You can point to them to show that Putin is a tyrant. But the bootlickers can point to these same results to say there is evidence of the opposite. (They of course miss the fact that it doesn't mean matter because no interpretation paints both the Russian government and society in a good light. Either one of the world's superpowers has been highjacked against the will of over a hundred million Russians, or the same have freely given and continue to give it to Putin to commit heinous acts.)

I suspect that the truth may be the worst of both worlds. That Putin has the support of the majority (although not 87%). That he would have the plurality or even still the majority of votes even in fair elections with free opposition, no propaganda, and no intimidation. But that he brings out of crackdowns, the intimidation, and the propaganda, and cheats on top of it, for the benefits doing so brings. One would be that it is a readily cheap way of seeming like he has near universal support. A grimmer picture may be one others have painted re: him cheating in an obvious way to show his people that he has total control, that he cannot be removed by democratic means, and also to get the support of people who find the classical strong man someone to look up up. (e.g. Generals might be less inclined to commit murders and war crimes for him if there was even a chance he would be voted out and they would have to answer for crimes against humanity.)

The support of the majority is a wrong perspective here, he has the apathy of the majority. Years upon years of corruption, strongarming and oligarchy, on top of massive economical disparities have made most of the public indifferent to the results of the election and content to look down in front of their feet, so they don't trip. They vote for Putin but don't actually care about that, it's just "well we're not dead yet, the guy can stay in the office" most of the time, as a change on top wouldn't really be a "change" at the bottom. So why stick out your neck? The outcome is already decided.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

i want to believe someone in the stats office did that on purpose

in other news, wtf Tashkent and Bishkek, migranty plz

https://twitter.com/alex_yus_/status/1769456232820015519
The link has the exit poll in Belgrade running at 3% for Putin with 3k+ respondents? Is he really that unpopular there?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Budzilla posted:

The link has the exit poll in Belgrade running at 3% for Putin with 3k+ respondents? Is he really that unpopular there?

Presumably many Russians who are avoiding mobilisation or other persecution there and very few 'ordinary' Russians because it's not exactly a beach resort for pensioners and oligarchs.

Doctor Malaver
May 23, 2007

Ce qui s'est passé t'a rendu plus fort

Nenonen posted:

Presumably many Russians who are avoiding mobilisation or other persecution there and very few 'ordinary' Russians because it's not exactly a beach resort for pensioners and oligarchs.

Serbian authorities work nicely with Russian, they deny visas to Putin's critics and suppress their attempts at organizing.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
They're probably disappointed how bad putin is at genocide

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Kikas posted:

The support of the majority is a wrong perspective here, he has the apathy of the majority. Years upon years of corruption, strongarming and oligarchy, on top of massive economical disparities have made most of the public indifferent to the results of the election and content to look down in front of their feet, so they don't trip. They vote for Putin but don't actually care about that, it's just "well we're not dead yet, the guy can stay in the office" most of the time, as a change on top wouldn't really be a "change" at the bottom. So why stick out your neck? The outcome is already decided.

Why is turnout increased if this is the case?

Bright Bart
Apr 27, 2020

False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped

Nenonen posted:

Presumably many Russians who are avoiding mobilisation or other persecution there and very few 'ordinary' Russians because it's not exactly a beach resort for pensioners and oligarchs.

Even if they polled 100% Russians dodging the draft, I would expect the number to be higher. Humans are stupid. I would guesstimate that 10-20% of draft dodgers support Putin and his war but just feel they should be excused from fighting it.

I can't vouch for that beyond being pretty sure of it but I can say with certainty (and base my sure-ness here on this) that there are refugee groups supporting the junta they are legally registered as fleeing from causing physical violence to refugee groups who support the opposition. You will for a certainty find militant al-Assad supporters in Syrian refugee camps.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

mawarannahr posted:

Why is turnout increased if this is the case?

Not voting would also be sticking your neck out, I assume. Be a good citizen.
And you know, I don't trust that one either.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
I can believe they would rig one number, but TWO NUMBERS? That's too crazy!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Online voting is pretty clever for rigging an election. You don't need to refute exit polls or pretend to have stacks of genuine ballots for the leader just out of frame. You just point at Online_Votes.xls and remind that you can't bribe a computer :smugbert:

goblin week
Jan 26, 2019

Absolute clown.

Nenonen posted:

Online voting is pretty clever for rigging an election. You don't need to refute exit polls or pretend to have stacks of genuine ballots for the leader just out of frame. You just point at Online_Votes.xls and remind that you can't bribe a computer :smugbert:

Republican type post

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Putin didn't even have to yell STOP THE COUNT on Twitter and that's how you know it isn't a real democracy

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Nenonen posted:

Online voting is pretty clever for rigging an election. You don't need to refute exit polls or pretend to have stacks of genuine ballots for the leader just out of frame. You just point at Online_Votes.xls and remind that you can't bribe a computer :smugbert:

Also no inconvenient videos of poll workers stuffing the dropbox!

haddedam
Feb 19, 2024

by Fluffdaddy
Failing a coup and still being able to run for the office is peak democracy ala yank.

Bright Bart
Apr 27, 2020

False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped
In a very weird way it kind of is. The people have the choice of electing whoever they want, even a dude who tried to take that choice away from them and may do so again.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

haddedam posted:

Failing a coup and still being able to run for the office is peak democracy ala yank.

Yep, can't think of anyone else who would have attempted a coup and then gotten elected to the top of power

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Nenonen posted:

Yep, can't think of anyone else who would have attempted a coup and then gotten elected to the top of power

If you mean a certain German head of government, he was never elected to the top of power, and his party was never elected a majority of, or even able to secure a governing coalition in, the parliament; he was just appointed chancellor by the president because they thought he'd be easy to control.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Fuschia tude posted:

If you mean a certain German head of government, he was never elected to the top of power, and his party was never elected a majority of, or even able to secure a governing coalition in, the parliament; he was just appointed chancellor by the president because they thought he'd be easy to control.

He was also punished for the coup attempt, so it's not a perfect analogy

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Fuschia tude posted:

If you mean a certain German head of government, he was never elected to the top of power, and his party was never elected a majority of, or even able to secure a governing coalition in, the parliament; he was just appointed chancellor by the president because they thought he'd be easy to control.

Details, schmetails. It's not like there is a direct vote for the US Prez either, it's all just a collection of made up black magic rules that doesn't require the largest share of votes to win and even a dark horse candidate could win if the electors felt emancipated enough.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

mobby_6kl posted:

He was also punished for the coup attempt, so it's not a perfect analogy

This is the point where he writes his bestseller, another point of convergence. See, they go through all the same phases, just in different order.

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Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

Nenonen posted:

This is the point where he writes his bestseller, another point of convergence. See, they go through all the same phases, just in different order.

Dictating his stream of consciousness to poor Hess was the twitter / truth social poo poo-posting of the day. Ecclesiastes was right, there truly is nothing new under the Sun, ever.

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