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Dapper_Swindler posted:i think they turn out hard. they have for the last couple elections since. i am pretty sure they will now. We have a million data points showing Trump is toxic with independents and he needs them but he gets a pass in the doomerism. Meanwhile we're still stuck on single outlier polls claiming Biden is going to lose 500% of the Black vote and 600% of Hispanic voters. It is what it is.
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Mar 18, 2024 15:52
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I am watching the Rifftrax of Rollergator and that brief is still the stupidest thing I've ever seen.
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Mar 18, 2024 15:54
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Shammypants posted:St. Pete's has 12% undecided, Emerson has 10% undecided, Big Village has 10.5% undecided and so on. Among independents they are sometimes tied (red states) and in every competitive state Biden leads. The effects are felt and the polls are whatever. Yeah, but if someone is still "undecided" after four years of President Trump, Jan 6th, four years of MAGA mania, and Trump's new campaign persona as the Great Christian Hope, are convictions really going to move the needle for those people? The polls suggest that they will, but while I'm usually a fan of relying on hard data like polls, I do think this runs into a weak point of polls: an inability to fully account for cognitive dissonance. When the COVID vaccines were first going around, polls and studies suggested that a substantial factor driving antivaxxers was the nature of the FDA's emergency use authorization, and that many of them would give in and take the vaccine if it had gone through the full approval process rather than an expedited emergency process. As a result, some believed the EUAs to be a significant contributor to vaccination reluctance, and expected that full approval would spike vaccination rates. But when the COVID vaccines did get through the full approval process and the EUA was withdrawn, it barely made an impact on vaccination rates. All those people who had told pollsters that they would get vaxxed if the vaccine went through the full process? In practice, they just found reasons to declare that this particular instance of going through the process didn't count for some reason. I think the parallels to Trump are pretty clear here. If someone's sitting here in 2024 saying they're just not sure if Trump did any crimes or not, then I suspect they're not actually going to let the courts be the final arbiter either. They'll just shift from "I'm not sure if the press or the prosecutors are telling the truth about these alleged crimes" to "I'm not sure if the press or the prosecutors or the judge or the jury are telling the truth about these alleged crimes". They'll find excuses to distrust the judicial process, just as they've found excuses to distrust all the evidence that's come out up to this point, and they'll rationalize that the convictions that happen actually don't really count for some reason.
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Mar 18, 2024 15:54
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Tesseraction posted:Sword of Dumbocles Is this the sword the thread title is about?
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Mar 18, 2024 16:04
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Main Paineframe posted:Yeah, but if someone is still "undecided" after four years of President Trump, Jan 6th, four years of MAGA mania, and Trump's new campaign persona as the Great Christian Hope, are convictions really going to move the needle for those people? On the flip side, what did affect vaccination rates was lots of people getting it and having no ill effects. There's a hard 10-15% that will never be convinced for vaccines, but there was a squishy middle that could be swayed even if it wasn't by logic, reason, evidence, or science. How this compares to trump voters I'm not sure
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Mar 18, 2024 16:08
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Nervous posted:Is this the sword the thread title is about? Nah, it’s this one : https://youtu.be/LGzc0pIjHqw?si=gNVtDd_94JlcCz0x
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Mar 18, 2024 16:09
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Main Paineframe posted:Yeah, but if someone is still "undecided" after four years of President Trump, Jan 6th, four years of MAGA mania, and Trump's new campaign persona as the Great Christian Hope, are convictions really going to move the needle for those people? A lot of undecided voters are so checked out of politics they don't even know this is going to be a rematch of 2020 with Trump back on the ballot. Remember as of a month ago one third of voters, including nearly half of Democratic voters, still don't think Trump will be the nominee (or think he'll be replaced by November). As election day approaches the waveform will collapse and people will have to admit that is actually the case and/or realize that he's actually running again.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:12
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Hell, you can follow politics and not be convinced Trump will be the nominee. I'm open to an unlikely-but-possible chance (call it 10%, based on nothing more than gut feeling) that the dam in one of these trials breaks in such a way that Trump unable to campaign and he gets replaced on an emergency basis. Granted, the other 90% is no questions Trump is the nominee.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:19
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It's also plausible, but not entirely likely he just keels over. Same with Biden, mind.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:23
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does anyone have a link to this filing that isn't a direct link to the new york state docket the new york state docket does not appear to have been designed with the amount of people hitting it at once and has keeled over and died for me, and i would very much like to read this edit: nevermind, finally loaded. lol it's 4,919 pages, no wonder the docket choked and died evilweasel fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Mar 18, 2024 |
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Mar 18, 2024 16:28
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Veryslightlymad posted:It's also plausible, but not entirely likely he just keels over. Same with Biden, mind. Them dying of simultaneous heart attacks at the first debate would break so many brains. It must happen. Fetch the Havana Syndrome gun we've got a timeline to destroy.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:29
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Main Paineframe posted:. I think you're probably correct here BUT there's a caveat. The consistent pattern we've seen over the past eight years is that every time Trump hits a new new low, his polling drops by about five percent for a week or two then rebounds to baseline. There's pretty good odds that "actual convictions" will cause dips like that. I don't think they'll change anyone's mind but if he can't do rallies because he has to be in court that might help depress his turnout. If he's convicted in October it might sway the race.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:35
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The consistent pattern we've seen over the past eight years is that every time Trump hits a new new low, his polling drops by about five percent for a week or two then rebounds to baseline. We call this phenomenon Anglosphere Apathetic Amnesia. The voters lack object permanence.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:39
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Seems like Trump might've had an offer for the bond but rejected it? Don't have time to dig into it now, linked below: https://bsky.app/profile/joshuajfriedman.com/post/3kny3bbedqz2l That would kind of ruin their "it's literally impossible  " line of defense in that case
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Mar 18, 2024 16:43
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Times is reporting that Trump hit up 30 companies to get the half billion he needs, and had no takers. A bit too busy to read it, but lol if true
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Mar 18, 2024 16:44
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evilweasel posted:does anyone have a link to this filing that isn't a direct link to the new york state docket I started downloading on my phone and became very confused at the slow download speed until I saw it was 330 megs of text.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:44
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mobby_6kl posted:Seems like Trump might've had an offer for the bond but rejected it? Don't have time to dig into it now, linked below: it says their negotiations with chubb collapsed when chubb would not take real estate as collateral. i suspect what it was is they wouldn't take only real estate as collateral. quote:While Defendants had been actively negotiating a bond collateralized by both liquid i also suspect everyone insisted on Trump posting a personal guarantee and he refused. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Mar 18, 2024 |
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Mar 18, 2024 16:47
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evilweasel posted:does anyone have a link to this filing that isn't a direct link to the new york state docket 5000 pages to say Trump doesn't have $500,000,000? That's funny. Tesseraction posted:Them dying of simultaneous heart attacks at the first debate would break so many brains. It must happen. I'm becoming very, very doubtful that Trump agrees to debate Biden. Trump himself may want to, but I think those around him will be canny enough to convince him the debate is bad or--worse--disrespectful to him.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:52
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How do you write 5000 pages on anything 
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Mar 18, 2024 17:00
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:How do you write 5000 pages on anything about 4,800 pages are exhibits. it's something like 30 pages of legal argument, 20 pages of declarations (i.e. written testimony under oath), and the remainder every single document they thought might possibly be relevant. last time this included like 30 different articles from ludicrously right-wing nonsense websites.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:02
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How many of them are worthwhile exhibits?
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Mar 18, 2024 17:03
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Tesseraction posted:How many of them are worthwhile exhibits? none are obviously irrelevant looking at the names (pages 54-58 of the pdf). mostly transcripts of the trial, financial documents, etc. nothing obviously insulting to the intelligence of the court, like last time.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:06
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The filing won’t pull up for me, what is trump requesting here? More time or a waiver for the bond?
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Mar 18, 2024 17:13
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If real estate isn't appreciable collateral for the bond, then what is, at least where Trump is concerned? I don't think Trump would have half a billion in baubles and gold plated toilets. Does he have investments or bonds? Ips he gets royalties on? I can't think of anything Trump has (or has lied about having) that could be used for the bond beyond his properties.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:16
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Tesseraction posted:No-one is concerned with people positively voting for Trump, it's about finding people who are morons like that Ken Bone freak from 2016 who is a floating voter. Despite it being dumb as poo poo to ever contemplate voting GOP, these loving farm animals still hum and moo until election day, and those hoofed doofuses are affected by things like Trump having to slink in and out of court, so this Sword of Dumbocles is useful in that regard. I hope you're right but Ken Bone as an example is especially noteworthy because despite all of his whining about not having quality candidates or whatever, he famously stayed on Twitter for a while, quickly revealed that he's just a Republican and always votes Republican, and has had several meltdowns quitting Twitter when people call him out for pretending to be a moderate. There are gettable people out there of course, but I think that number is a lot smaller than people believe.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:21
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Go go Leticia James repo machine!
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Mar 18, 2024 17:22
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Donkringel posted:If real estate isn't appreciable collateral for the bond, then what is, at least where Trump is concerned? Pretty sure that's the nut Trump is trying to crack and not getting anywhere with. Why would anyone take his real estate as bond collateral for a fraud trial where he was very publicly and thoroughly shown to be wildly misrepresenting the value of his real estate? Like smart lawyers, other people are demanding Donnie put cash up front and somewhere he can't control it before they believe him on anything. At least that sounds sane. So there is a small part of me that is awaiting for the post-escalator hellworld insanity to re-establish itself and we find out there was a billionaire oligarch somewhere willing to hand Chubb a bag of cash to cover it because gently caress it why not go full Tom Clancy, but Donnie got served the wrong brand of water bottle at a meeting and threw a hissy fit.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:29
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fool of sound posted:The filing won’t pull up for me, what is trump requesting here? More time or a waiver for the bond? he is requesting an "unsecured" stay of judgment, i.e. allow him to block enforcement of the judgment without putting up the required surety bond. he is not requesting more time, as his argument is the bond is impossible to get.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:30
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Maybe Chubb wanted the Trump brand too and that's why Donnie objected. Didn't want to go back to being a Drumpf.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:30
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Tesseraction posted:that Ken Bone freak from 2016 who is a floating voter. Best way to attract the beautiful human submarines.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:31
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bird food bathtub posted:I'm also genuinely befuddled by the idea that trials are going to hurt his support. People who still support Trump right now will not fall away because of trials. Everybody knows who and what he is by now he's been screaming it six inches from everyone's face for almost decade now. He will not ever shut the gently caress up about who and what he is, he cannot as a narcissist. Anybody still wearing a red hat and putting hog-tied Biden decals on their lifted F-150 knows exactly what they're getting out of the parasocial relationship they've developed and they'll keep right on doing it through every indictment until the heat death of the universe. The trials just do not apply to his base in the way people are attempting to apply them. You may as well put forth the idea that orange sherbert makes a wonderful nuclear fuel. Everything in your post is true, but he can't win with just his base; they're maybe 50% of Republican voters. What remains unknown is how many of the other 50% that he'll require to win will come home to a GOP with no funding, no ideas, no platform besides a wanna-be dictator with 88-indictments hanging over his head. And that's if he isn't convicted in the Stormy Daniels case. Clear_Blue posted:Yeah, Republican-leaning voters will think on November 5th: I really don't like Trump, he's a criminal, rapist, convicted felon and outright destable human being. But if the alternative is a Democrat in the White House, well here's my vote Donald! Some will; but enough? No.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:31
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evilweasel posted:it says their negotiations with chubb collapsed when chubb would not take real estate as collateral. i suspect what it was is they wouldn't take only real estate as collateral. What’s the difference between real estate and real property in this quote?
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Mar 18, 2024 17:33
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Main Paineframe posted:Yeah, but if someone is still "undecided" after four years of President Trump, Jan 6th, four years of MAGA mania, and Trump's new campaign persona as the Great Christian Hope, are convictions really going to move the needle for those people? A lot of the time we make a decision based on gut feeling then justify it with the facts that would justify it. Someone doesn’t want the vaccine, so they find reasons that makes sense (emergency auth or whatever.) Once that reason goes away they just find a new one because the original one was never the real reason. They must mentally push the goalposts back further and further. Edit: there’s an argument that is pretty niche and maybe even fringe that all decision making is done this way, and that the part of the brain that justifies a decision always acts after the part of the brain that actually makes it.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:34
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evilweasel posted:he is requesting an "unsecured" stay of judgment, i.e. allow him to block enforcement of the judgment without putting up the required surety bond. he is not requesting more time, as his argument is the bond is impossible to get. As I am not a lawyer, is this as ridiculous as it sounds? Do they have any legal basis to the argument? Not sure there are any cases out there where the response to "I can't post bond" is "oh OK well then we'll just ignore the legal consequences of you not being able to do that."
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Mar 18, 2024 17:34
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Murgos posted:What’s the difference between real estate and real property in this quote? basically none. Gyrotica posted:As I am not a lawyer, is this as ridiculous as it sounds? Do they have any legal basis to the argument? Not sure there are any cases out there where the response to "I can't post bond" is "oh OK well then we'll just ignore the legal consequences of you not being able to do that." it's not insane. posting a bond gets you an automatic stay. the question is can a court grant a stay anyway (in other jurisdictions, often yes) and if it can, should it under these circumstances. i am not familiar enough with New York state law on judgments to know how strong their arguments the appeals court has the authority to grant a stay anyway. their arguments on why it should seem mostly bad (the decision is so terrible!) and only a couple that at least address points that could be relevant (such as it's not like he can flee with real estate, and if he tries to sell it people will notice, so it's effectively collateral anyway)
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Mar 18, 2024 17:42
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Gyrotica posted:and only a couple that at least address points that could be relevant (such as it's not like he can flee with real estate, and if he tries to sell it people will notice, so it's effectively collateral anyway) But given that his crimes include misrepresenting the value of his real estate, I don't think it's worth much. If the insurers won't use it as collateral, then there's a reason for that.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:44
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Fart Amplifier posted:But given that his crimes include misrepresenting the value of his real estate, I don't think it's worth much. If the insurers won't use it as collateral, then there's a reason for that. It's in the bsky post. Underwriters aren't set up to operate or manage large commercial properties, and selling the property immediately carries the risk of not getting the full amount they're owed. So real estate is worthless to them.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:47
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Fart Amplifier posted:But given that his crimes include misrepresenting the value of his real estate, I don't think it's worth much. If the insurers won't use it as collateral, then there's a reason for that. Seems from the filing that at least one underwriter offered a package that involved real estate as collateral, but Trump rejected that deal.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:50
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Rust Martialis posted:Best way to attract the beautiful human submarines.  I just can't dislike Ken Bone. Let your freak flag fly, man. Or float? Sink?
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Mar 18, 2024 17:57
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mdemone posted:Seems from the filing that at least one underwriter offered a package that involved real estate as collateral, but Trump rejected that deal. Calling it now, he rejected it because he was butthurt by their insultingly low valuations.
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Mar 18, 2024 17:59
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