- Diva Cupcake
- Aug 15, 2005
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I read the occasional mock draft from Kiper/Jeremiah, use Dane Brugler's Beast as a reference, and watch JustBombsProductions highlight clips. That's about the extent I'll ever care or have time for as far as draft study.
Here's Kiper's latest.
quote:1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The mystery is gone now, right? Justin Fields was sent to the Steelers over the weekend for a conditional Day 3 pick in 2025, which means Chicago's quarterback depth chart looks like this: Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien. The franchise stayed out of the veteran market in free agency. The Bears are going to take a passer with this pick, and all signs point to it being Williams, my top-ranked prospect.
The good thing for the rookie who takes over? He will have solid playmakers around him on offense. The trade for wideout Keenan Allen was a savvy move by general manager Ryan Poles, and running back signing D'Andre Swift will alleviate pressure on the new signal-caller. Allen and DJ Moore are a really good and versatile receiver duo. Poles & Co. also have some flexibility with the No. 9 overall pick: Will they try to help their defense now?
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Here's where the intrigue begins. Daniels or Drake Maye ... or is it possible J.J. McCarthy is in play? I don't think anyone has a great handle on which quarterback the Commanders prefer just yet. I have Daniels over Maye in my position rankings -- both are in my top six overall -- and McCarthy is a distant fourth. There's no consensus around the league, though, which makes this pick the pivot point in the draft.
One quarterback we know who won't be involved in Washington is 2023 starter Sam Howell, who was dealt to the Seahawks last week. The Commanders brought in Marcus Mariota to serve as the backup to whichever rookie they select. And like the Bears, they have a good pair of wideouts in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, though there are questions along the offensive line.
3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Just like the two teams picking before them, the Patriots traded away their top quarterback from last season, as Mac Jones was sent to Jacksonville last week. New England wouldn't pass up a quarterback here, right? I'm not as confident as I was before free agency began. The Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal, and he could be the bridge option to a rookie. But then when you look at their other signings, are we sure they're not thinking beyond 2024 already?
What I'm saying is: If a team that fell in love with the third quarterback in this class offered a bevy of draft capital, wouldn't New England have to consider moving down? That would give the organization multiple first-round picks to improve the entire roster, both this year and in 2025. This is not a team likely to compete this season. Las Vegas, Denver, Minnesota could be options. Sliding down a few spots would still allow the Patriots to add a rookie starter at receiver or offensive tackle, both positions which are deep in Round 1.
Right now, I'm sticking with my gut and Maye, who has a really high ceiling if he can clean up a couple of small issues with his mechanics.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
No team needs a wide receiver as much as the Cardinals. Marquise Brown just signed a one-year deal with the Super Bowl champs, making second-year receiver Michael Wilson nominally the No. 1 guy for quarterback Kyler Murray. Luckily, Arizona is in a great spot to add one of my highest-graded wideout prospects of the past decade. The 6-foot-3 Harrison, my No. 2 overall prospect, has elite size, speed, hands and route-running ability -- he has the tools to be a star. This fit makes perfect sense.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Chargers' salary-cap crunch led to the release of Mike Williams and trade of Keenan Allen, leaving the wide receiver corps depleted. They can't go into the season with Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, who disappointed as a rookie last season, as their top two wideouts. So as much as right tackle could still be in play, this is the spot to nab a receiver to be Justin Herbert's No. 1 target.
In any other draft class, Nabers and Rome Odunze would be the far-and-away top-ranked wideouts -- but this isn't any other draft class. There likely will be three taken in the top 10, and a handful of others throughout Round 1. This is an extremely talented group. What I like about Nabers is his ability to create separation and then break tackles after the catch. He's a fantastic player.
6. New York Giants
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
This would make back-to-back-to-back quarterbacks at the top of the board, and then back-to-back-to-back wideouts right after that. That's how loaded these groups are. The Giants have improved their receiving corps over the past two years -- Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson are their top three guys right now -- but they don't have a true No. 1 guy who can dominate on the outside. They could add that in Odunze, a touchdown machine in a 6-foot-3 frame.
There have been rumblings about New York being a team to watch for the quarterbacks, but I just don't see it. The team is committed to Daniel Jones for at least one more season because of the extension he signed last year, and I think this is too high to take J.J. McCarthy. Are the Giants willing to mortgage their future to try to move into the Patriots' spot at No. 3? The most likely option might be adding a playmaker for Jones and seeing if he can return to his 2022 form. Then again, if Jones struggles, coach Brian Daboll & Co. might again be drafting around this spot in 2025.
7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Nothing over the past month has changed my mind about the Titans taking the draft's top offensive tackle and starting him on the left side as a rookie. In fact, after they released Andre Dillard last week, the need is even more severe. Alt started 33 games at left tackle in college and surrendered just six sacks, four of which came when he was a true freshman in 2021. He would upgrade an O-line that ranked 31st in sack rate per dropback (11.1%) last season.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama
This is another pairing that makes too much sense. It's a combo of biggest positional need and best available prospect, as Turner is No. 9 on my Big Board. The Falcons, of course, made the biggest splash in free agency by signing quarterback Kirk Cousins, but their defense is mostly the same. They have to get better along the defensive line; as I mentioned in my Mock Draft 2.0, they ranked last in the league in pass rush win rate (30.9%) last season.
Turner had 22.5 sacks over three college seasons, and he improved his pressure rates every season. He's the clear No. 1 edge rusher in this class. New coach Raheem Morris would get the best out of him.
9. Chicago Bears
Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
Before the trade for Keenan Allen, I would have said the Bears should do everything they could to try to get one of the top three wideouts in this class. That's no longer necessary, though Allen will be a free agent in 2025 unless the team gives him extension. Instead, Chicago has options with its second first-round pick. I'm not totally sold on Braxton Jones being the long-term answer at left tackle, which means offensive line could be in play. And a defense that had just 30 sacks last season (31st in the league) could use help too. So let's add an edge-rusher on the other side of Montez Sweat.
Verse's testing numbers at the combine were impressive, even if I didn't love his 2023 tape. He was too inconsistent at times. But at 6-foot-4, 254 pounds, he has a complete set of tools to be a devastating pass-rusher at the next level, if he can put everything together. The Bears have made a few shrewd moves this offseason, and if their rookie quarterback comes in and plays well, they could be challengers in the NFC North.
10. New York Jets
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Jets have to maximize their window with 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That's what I keep coming back to. So after they were able to sign left tackle Tyron Smith to a one-year deal, who's the player they could take here to make the most immediate impact? For me, it's Bowers, a tremendous pass-catching tight end who could elevate the offense and provide a safety blanket for Rodgers.
Either way, this draft will be a delicate balance for general manager Joe Douglas, who has to think about the future while also trying to win now with Rodgers. That's also why I wouldn't rule out a tackle here; Smith and right tackle Morgan Moses, who the Jets acquired in a trade last week, will be free agents in 2025. It's a tough challenge for Douglas.
11. Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
The Vikings are now the most interesting team in this draft. They just acquired another first-round pick in a deal with the Texans (No. 23), giving them the capital to move up and take a quarterback if they got the opportunity. But how far could they move up? Remember, it takes two sides to make a trade. Would the Giants want to risk missing out on one of the top receivers? Would the Titans want to risk missing out on their preferred tackle? Would the Falcons or Bears want to risk not getting the edge rusher they like? There's not an easy match, unless Minnesota is willing to give up a lot of future picks, which is certainly possible.
In this scenario, the Vikings could land their quarterback of the future anyway. With Kirk Cousins gone and Sam Darnold added on a one-year deal, it's clear they have to add competition. All sides point to that competition coming from a rookie. McCarthy is the No. 21 prospect on my Big Board, but I can see why some teams would covet him much higher. He has intriguing physical traits and can make every throw. Either way, if Minnesota really wants to try to move up in Round 1 for a quarterback, I could see it waiting until draft day to see how the board shakes out.
12. Denver Broncos
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
The Broncos have been quiet in free agency. Are they really comfortable going into the season with Jarrett Stidham as their starting quarterback? They're running out of options, unless they can find a way to move up in the draft ... or if they liked someone from the second tier of passers. Nix, Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) and Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) are likely to be off the board by the time Denver picks again, which is No. 76 overall, as it doesn't own a second-round pick. So could Sean Payton & Co. instead take one here or trade down a few picks in Round 1?
That's the way I'm leaning right now. Nix isn't going to be for every team, but Payton might see a little Drew Brees in him. He's a super-fast processor who can make every throw and was one of the most productive passers in college football the past two seasons. He had 74 touchdown passes and just 10 interceptions after transferring from Oregon. The Ducks' offense relied on quick strikes, though, and he wasn't often asked to push the ball downfield. He averaged just 6.3 air yards per attempt last season, which ranked 120th out of 125 FBS qualifiers. Taking Nix in Round 1 would be a way for the Broncos to try to snag a franchise quarterback, and if they moved down a few spots, they could regain some valuable capital. But again, they have to really believe in his potential to do it.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
In my last mock draft, I had the Raiders taking the best interior penetrator in the class in Byron Murphy II (Texas). Well, that no longer makes sense after they gave free agent Christian Wilkins a massive deal, plugging a hole in the middle of their defense. I'm not ruling out edge rusher or quarterback as a possibility with this pick -- they did add Gardner Minshew in free agency to at the very least be a bridge passer -- but I keep staring at their depth chart and wondering who's going to play right tackle. Let's fill that void with Latham, the best right tackle in this class.
Latham started 27 games at the position in college, surrendering just two sacks and 16 total pressures. He can also dominate in the run game with his 6-foot-6, 342-pound frame. Las Vegas is remaking its run game without back Josh Jacobs, who signed with Green Bay, and Latham could be an integral part of its rebuild. The Raiders ranked 28th in yards per rush attempt (3.7) last season.
14. New Orleans Saints
Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
As I mentioned last month, the Saints have seen 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning struggle for two seasons; how much longer will they trot him out there at left tackle? In a deep and talented tackle class, they could upgrade in Round 1. Fashanu, who only turned 21 in December, has fantastic movement traits as both a pass- and run-blocker. At 6-foot-6, 312 pounds, he looks like he could play tight end. He started 21 games on the left side in college.
New Orleans might also be in the market for a wideout to pair with Chris Olave, who has put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to start his career. Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) and Xavier Worthy (Texas) are the next receivers up in my rankings.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Finally, the first cornerback off the board. It's not because this isn't a good group of corners -- it's more about the elite prospects at other positions. I have four CBs in my top 25 overall but don't have top-10 grades on any of them. The best of the bunch is Mitchell, who has been moving up since a spectacular performance in Mobile, Alabama, in early February at Senior Bowl practices. Then he ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine, making my list of risers. He had six interceptions over his final two college seasons.
As for the pairing in Indianapolis, the Colts don't have a No. 1 corner and desperately have to add talent at the position. Luckily they're in a good spot to do that in this draft.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Troy Fautanu, G, Washington
This is another team whose free agent moves haven't filled the need I identified in my previous mock draft. Former starting guard Damien Lewis got a big deal from Carolina, while the other guard spot is going to be an open competition. Seattle has to add O-line reinforcements with this pick.
Fautanu, my top-ranked guard, played mostly as the left tackle in college, starting 28 games. But he played 114 snaps at guard too. And while he has the frame to be a tackle in the NFL (6-foot-4, 317 pounds), I see the potential for him to be an All-Pro guard. He is hard-nosed and nasty when he latches on to defenders. The Seahawks offense will look a lot different with new coordinator Ryan Grubb, but they would do well to add Fautanu to build up the interior of their line.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Jaguars have been busy in free agency, adding defensive tackle Arik Armstead, center Mitch Morse, safety Darnell Savage and wideout Gabe Davis, among others. The position they haven't addressed enough? Cornerback, where they added veteran Ronald Darby but could still require reinforcements to play on the other side of Tyson Campbell. I like the fit of Arnold in Jacksonville, as he took a major step forward in 2023, developing into a shutdown corner. He picked off five passes and allowed only four receptions of 20-plus yards as the nearest defender in coverage.
Wide receiver is another position the Jags could consider. I'm not sold on Davis as a replacement for Calvin Ridley, who signed a big deal with the Titans in free agency. Davis might be better as a No. 3 wideout with a rookie sharing snaps alongside Christian Kirk.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The Bengals let right tackle Jonah Williams leave in free agency, opening up a void at the position. I don't see a replacement on the roster. They could fill it with Fuaga, one of my favorite prospects in this class. He is phenomenal in both the run and pass game, and he started 25 games at RT for the Beavers.
Cincinnati likely will also have its eyes on the second group of receivers, as it brought back Tee Higgins on the franchise tag but No. 3 wideout Tyler Boyd is still a free agent. Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) is a potential fit. I also thought about defensive tackle with Byron Murphy II (Texas) still available in this scenario.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
I didn't have defensive tackle on my list of needs for the Rams ahead of free agency, but that all changed Friday. Aaron Donald announced his retirement, and the future Hall of Famer leaves a giant hole to fill. L.A. got great play from rookie front-seven defenders Byron Young and Kobie Turner last season, but it has to upgrade its talent level on that side of the ball. I see this pick as either a defensive lineman or a cornerback.
Murphy is the best interior pass-rusher in this class, and at 6-foot-1, 297 pounds, he has a similar build to Donald. I'm not saying he will became a perennially All-Pro, but he has intriguing tools at the position. He had five sacks and created 33 pressures last season. This match makes a lot of sense. The Rams haven't picked in Round 1 since 2016, so we can never rule out a trade down, either.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Just a few weeks ago, at the NFL combine, here's what Steelers general manager Omar Khan said to reporters about quarterback Kenny Pickett: "I have full faith in Kenny." A lot has changed since then, huh? Pickett was traded to the Eagles after Pittsburgh signed Russell Wilson, and then the team traded a conditional Day 3 pick in 2025 for Justin Fields, completing a total overhaul of the QB depth chart. For new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to really thrive, though, the Steelers should add a replacement for wideout Diontae Johnson, who was traded to Carolina.
Thomas, who ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine, has a tremendous blend of speed and size (6-foot-3). He caught 17 touchdown passes last season, leading the FBS. Pittsburgh had just 13 total touchdown passes in 2023. Thomas and George Pickens could form an exciting pass-catching duo.
21. Miami Dolphins
Graham Barton, C/G, Duke
Miami has lost a few starters over the past few weeks as a result of their salary-cap situation, including guard Robert Hunt, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker and cornerback Xavien Howard. The organization could go a few different directions with this pick. I still like the pairing of Barton and the Dolphins, though, because of the way he could improve the middle of this O-line. Barton played mostly left tackle in college, but he has the traits to move inside and command the game. Miami ranked 31st in pass block win rate (49.2%) last season, so it has to improve.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
This has been an offseason of change for the Eagles, who have new coordinators on both sides of the ball and have seen two stalwarts retire in center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. And after a rough end to their season, coach Nick Sirianni finds himself with a few holes on his roster. I almost slotted in a receiver to add to Jalen Hurts' fantastic set of skill-position talent -- how about Xavier Worthy (Texas)? -- but I see defense as the bigger problem.
Philadelphia ranked 30th in both points allowed per game (25.2) and QBR allowed (55.7), and it was 31st in passing yards allowed to receivers (3,125). Veteran starting corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry are each on the wrong side of 30. Wiggins could step in and play a huge role for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. At 6-foot-1, 173 pounds, he's slender, but he has elite speed. He ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
23. Minnesota Vikings (via HOU through CLE)
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
We're back around to the Vikings, who acquired this pick in a deal with the Texans last week. I gave them a Kirk Cousins replacement at No. 11, and if they're keeping this selection, they have to address a secondary which ranked 28th in passing yards allowed to receivers (3,019) last season. I like the front-seven additions of Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, but Minnesota hasn't made moves at cornerback.
I'm a huge fan of DeJean, who's still recovering from a broken leg suffered in November. He's a ball hawk -- he had seven interceptions over his final 23 college games -- with excellent technique. He also isn't afraid of sticking his head in and making a tackle.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
How will the Cowboys replace long-time left tackle Tyron Smith, who just signed with the Jets? Based on their lack of moves over the past 10 days, they might be thinking this pick is their best bet. And looking at my rankings, they're probably right. Guyton, Amarius Mims (Georgia), Jordan Morgan (Arizona) and Roger Rosengarten (Washington) could all be in play in the final 10 picks of Round 1. Of those four, only Morgan played the majority of his snaps at left tackle, but I think Guyton has the highest ceiling. He started just 14 games in college; he has outstanding physical tools to mold.
Dallas also has a hole to fill at center, as Tyler Biadasz left in free agency. Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) could be in play.
25. Green Bay Packers
Laiatu Latu, OLB, UCLA
Green Bay is another team that might seek one of these offensive tackles -- David Bakhtiari was released last week -- but I wonder if this is a landing spot for the best pure edge rusher in this class. Sure, it drafted Lukas Van Ness a year ago in Round 1, but he's more of a power rusher and run-stopper than a true double-digit sack machine.
Latu put up 111 quarterback pressures over the past two seasons, racking up 23.5 sacks. He has elite pass-rushing skills and is already advanced in his technique. The reason he's not a surefire top-15 pick is because he has some medical questions; he medically retired from football due to a neck injury when he was at Washington in 2021. I love his fit with the Packers, though.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
The Bucs are running it back from 2023, with quarterback Baker Mayfield, wideout Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David among the players re-signing. General manager Jason Licht has done well with a tough salary-cap situation -- Tampa Bay held a $35.1 million dead-cap charge for Tom Brady last year -- and his team should challenge again to win the NFC South (though Atlanta is improved too).
So how can the Bucs improve with this pick? I see room for a third wideout to take the top off the defense. And what better way to do that than with the fastest prospect in NFL combine history? At 5-foot-11, 165 pounds, Worthy is small, but he is electric with the ball in his hands. He'll help Mayfield's yards-per-attempt average just by running past corners on crossers. He had 26 touchdowns over three college seasons.
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Chop Robinson, OLB, Penn State
I thought hard about interior offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon), who could be a plug-and-play guard starter in Arizona. But this Cardinals defense needs addressing. They had just 33 sacks last season, which ranked 30th in the league, and they ranked 32nd in both QBR allowed (57.3) and rushing yards allowed (143.2).
The 6-foot-3, 254-pound Robinson had an inconsistent 2023 season -- four sacks, down from 5.5 in 2022 -- but I love his explosion off the ball and his closing speed after he makes a move. He pops on tape every time I watch Penn State from the past two seasons. He also ran an eye-popping 4.48-second 40-yard dash at the combine, an elite number for his size. This is right around the range in which teams will take a chance on high-upside prospects, and that's Robinson.
28. Buffalo Bills
T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State
Buffalo has turned over its safety position, with Jordan Poyer signing in Miami and Micah Hyde still unsigned, but it also must find a way to add talent at cornerback. The organization is up against the salary cap, so the draft likely will be the best way to do that. Kaiir Elam, a first-round pick in 2022, was a healthy scratch at times last season, and he ended up playing in just three games. Could they find a starter this late in Round 1? I think so.
Tampa leveled up in 2023, allowing only one touchdown as the nearest defender in coverage. Recovery from a hamstring injury prevented him from working out at the combine, but I see really solid speed and traits on tape. If the Bills decide to go offense with this selection, a wide receiver to replace Gabe Davis could be the play.
29. Detroit Lions
Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
How good is this Detroit roster? General manager Brad Holmes has done a stellar job since he was hired in 2021. He filled the Lions' biggest offseason hole with the trade for underrated cornerback Carlton Davis, which gives him some flexibility here. I'd like to see the Lions add another playmaker for quarterback Jared Goff.
Legette is rising in my rankings after he ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash and tested well in the other drills at the combine. While I will quibble with South Carolina for listing him at 6-foot-3 when he's actually 6-foot-1, I won't hold that against him. He had a fantastic 2023 season, with 1,255 receiving yards while averaging 17.7 yards per catch. He dominated cornerbacks on crossing routes, lining up in the slot and outside. This is a way to keep improving the Detroit offense.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Ravens' trade of Morgan Moses piqued my interest. Do they believe 2022 fourth-rounder Daniel Faalele is ready to step into the starting job at right tackle, or are they planning to draft a tackle? And could the answer be yes to both? I'm leaning toward the latter outcome. Faalele hasn't shown enough to be the entrenched starter, and maybe general manager Eric DeCosta is thinking about the future along the offensive line. This is the draft to do that.
Mims is the perfect case of a high-ceiling, high-risk prospect. The risk comes in that he has started only eight college games because of injuries and draft picks in front of him. The ceiling comes in when you watch him beat up on defenders, and the way he can move his feet at 340 pounds. He didn't allow a single sack at Georgia. Offensive line coaches will want to try to mold him because of his elite tools.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington
The 49ers have been able to make several moves in free agency to make tweaks to their roster, acquiring veterans on short-term deals to build out their depth. One position they haven't added? Offensive tackle, where soon-to-be-36-year-old Trent Williams is holding down the blindside and 2020 fifth-rounder Colton McKivitz just started every game on the right side. Williams ranked first in the league in pass block win rate among tackles (95.8%). McKivitz? He was 50th out of the 69 who played in at least 10 games. That's not good enough. I'd like to see San Francisco bring in some competition.
I thought Rosengarten might return to college for another year; he could have been a top-10 pick with some more seasoning. He might be a steal here, though, as the right tackle is aggressive as a run-blocker and solid in pass protection (though he had his worst game of the season in the national championship loss). I really liked his tape when I went back through after the season ended.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Kansas City signed speedster Marquise Brown to a one-year deal in free agency, but that shouldn't prevent the franchise from adding another receiver early in this draft. Mitchell is a rising prospect who could complement Brown and Rashee Rice. He ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash at the combine and had an 11-foot-4 broad jump, which tied for second among all prospects. He has excellent hands, catching 11 touchdown passes last season. He can make defenders miss after the catch, too.
I also thought about offensive tackle for the Chiefs, but I just slotted in seven above this pick. The last time there were eight OTs taken in Round 1? The 2008 draft. Kansas City has a hole at left tackle if it doesn't bring back free agent Donovan Smith.
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Mar 18, 2024 16:58
