euphronius posted:

you know somewhere a manager is thinking “$9 an hour for a fake nurse ? that is too much.”

Goreld posted:

Are all these surveys just cherry picking rich retirees? (Or just making poo poo up since, well, who’s going to fact check them?) Anecdotal but I haven’t met a single person lately who considers their current financial situations as ‘just peachy’

Mr Hootington posted:

https://www.marketwatch.com/livecov...w_rss_bulletins

webcams for christ posted:

thank you, that's really good to know. looks like NY offers medigap enrollment at any time

Willa Rogers posted:

oh, that's great!

open enrollment from MA plans should be a factor in those stories about which states are the best for retirees.

it should also be a standard plank for democrat candidates & blue states but won't, just as medicaid asset seizures are a big deal in california & other blue states.

bedpan posted:

oh no, a publication isn't going to reprint AP wire stories. whatever shall I do. where shall I go for AP wire service stories

MickeyFinn posted:

I think the disconnect comes from people who are doing ok now (they have shelter and food) but don’t have any kind of real improvement in their future. They can pay rent and eat more than beans and rice, but inflation has destroyed any disposable income and they’ll never buy a place. Also, a pink slip could arrive tomorrow and fine becomes a life-imperiling disaster.

Ardennes posted:

Russia has got 33 refineries, and refineries are large installations. It doesn't seem the Russians or OPEC+ are budging on cuts.

skooma512 posted:

If you like your doctor, you can keep them.

Thoguh posted:

Yeah it’s this and all the reporters and political people have spent thier whole life being handed patronage jobs so they can’t comprehend an existence where you couldn’t just pop over to any of a dozen non profits for a generous salary and benefits at any time if your current job let you go so the idea of dread about the future even if you have a roof over your head today is completely foreign to them.

Mr Hootington posted:

I really don't feel like connecting all the dots for you so hav3 a pleasant day.

skooma512 posted:

And they'll still bill for the time as if it was a real nurse.

Ardennes posted:

The West needs a new plan.

Mr Hootington posted:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1770153409271751079?t=eabCswmwrZe6W9mQbkCz2g&s=19

euphronius posted:

lol that’s it then

(referring to the death of federal supremacy )

Mr Hootington posted:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1770153409271751079?t=eabCswmwrZe6W9mQbkCz2g&s=19

euphronius posted:

lol that’s it then

(referring to the death of federal supremacy )

The Oldest Man posted:

we did it joe

gradenko_2000 posted:

why does baseball have "Sabermetrics" but no other sport does? [or do they?]

is it because the regimented structure of baseball allows one to reduce players to specific measurable actions, as opposed to, say, basketball, where the players are always in-motion across a variety of roles that they're playing?

euphronius posted:

I have seen no benefits to any sport due to “analytics”

shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/Gizmodo/status/1770081862377218087?s=20

Nonsense posted:

lol the supreme court has destroyed the supremacy clause, but a national abortion ban is still going to happen

Mr Hootington posted:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1770153409271751079?t=eabCswmwrZe6W9mQbkCz2g&s=19

Nonsense posted:

lol the supreme court has destroyed the supremacy clause, but a national abortion ban is still going to happen

quote:

https://twitter.com/TreppWire/status/1770133885587722737

the popes toes posted:

Vox Nihili posted:

at some point in the last five years we stopped bothering with the window dressing around capitalism butchering people, it kinda owns in a depraved spectacle sort of way

Vox Nihili posted:

at some point in the last five years we stopped bothering with the window dressing around capitalism butchering people, it kinda owns in a depraved spectacle sort of way

SKULL.GIF posted:

Another CRE domino falls. "Transferred to a special servicer" means they defaulted.

TREPP!

quote:

Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Product

Delinquencies soar as rising rates dent property resale values CRE CLO market is ‘first shoe to drop,’ says GenTrust’s Neely

By Scott Carpenter
March 19, 2024 at 4:00 AM PDT
Updated on March 19, 2024 at 10:47 AM PDT

An obscure investment product used to finance risky real estate projects is facing unprecedented stress as borrowers struggle to repay loans tied to commercial property ventures.

Known as commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations, or CRE CLOs, they bundle debt that would usually be seen as too speculative for conventional mortgage-backed securities into bonds of varying risk and return.

In just the last seven months the share of troubled assets held by these niche products has surged four-fold, by one measure, to more than 7.4%. For the hardest hit, delinquency rates are in the double digits. That’s left major players in the $80 billion market rushing to rework loans, while short sellers are ramping up attacks on publicly-traded issuers they say may be so beset by missed payments that they have little to no equity value.

The pain is part of a broader shakeout in the $20 trillion US commercial real estate market, which nearly brought down New York Community Bancorp and has elicited warnings from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Yet industry observers say few products are more exposed than CRE CLOs.

That’s because they’re primarily stuffed full of short-term, floating-rate loans for properties undergoing renovations or expansions, the type of risky debt that banks or CMBS often don’t want to hold. With rising interest rates eroding resale prices for refurbished multifamily dwellings and demand for office space still tepid, many borrowers are starting to struggle to meet their obligations. That’s left a number of CRE CLO issuers — which finance the riskiest part of the structures themselves and sell off the safer pieces — already absorbing losses.

Some say the pain could eventually spread to those invested in less risky portions, too.

“The CRE CLO market is the first shoe to drop in terms of defaults in the CRE debt markets,” said Mark Neely, director of alternative investments at GenTrust, a money manager. “The loans inside CRE CLOs tend to be for transitional properties, so the borrowers are counting on reselling them before the loan matures. But today many borrowers can’t sell properties for anywhere near where they bought them.”

To be sure, the highest rated debt issued by CRE CLOs benefit from ample protection built into the structure of the securities, and analysts across the board expect those bonds to be just fine. At the bottom of the capital stack, however, it’s a different story.

Issuers have been buying time by extending maturities, letting developers pay interest with additional debt, and making other changes to loans to encourage borrowers to keep current.

Modifications often take the form of two- to three-year extensions, in exchange for which borrowers typically are required to inject more capital.

Increasingly, CRE CLO issuers are also buying out

delinquent loans via cash reserves, allowing them to avoid tripping asset-coverage tests which causes cash-flow streams to certain investors to get turned off — a mechanism designed to protect those who purchase less risky portions of the structures.

Firms bought back a record $1.3 billion of delinquent loans last year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates.

“Increased stress in this market has forced managers to take unprecedented steps to protect the integrity of their CRE CLO structures,” strategists led by Chong Sin wrote in a report last month.

[...]
The share of delinquent loans in CRE CLOs from Arbor Realty Trust Inc., one of the industry’s largest issuers, touched 9.2% in January before sliding back down to 8.1% in February, according to CRED iQ data.

Its share price is down 16% year-to-date after rising 15% in 2023, while about 40% of its floating stock is currently sold short, according to data from analytics firm S3 Partners.

Arbor didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.

Arbor Chief Executive Officer Ivan Kaufman said on the company’s most recent earnings call in mid-February that it is working closely with borrowers to recapitalize deals and is looking to make new loans to keep growing the company’s balance sheet.

At least two CRE CLOs from Ready Capital, another major issuer, have already breached safety triggers, while 15% of its loans have been transferred to workout specialists known special servicers, according to data from Barclays Plc.

A spokesperson for Ready Capital declined to comment.


[...]

Just last week four CRE CLO bonds issued by Blackstone Mortgage Trust were downgraded by Morningstar DBRS because of higher expected losses on underlying loans, with the lowest-rated bond tranche cut to CCC. The downgraded bonds belong to a CLO that’s primarily backed by office properties rather than multifamily dwellings.

Short seller Carson Block in December said he was betting against the publicly traded real estate investment trust, predicting that even if the Fed lowers interest rates, losses on its loans could reach well into the billions, wiping out the trust’s equity.

In a Bloomberg TV interview Tuesday, Block said his firm has grown “more bearish” on Blackstone Mortgage Trust since late last year, citing troubles with multifamily properties.

“This kind of reminds me of 2007,” Block said.

A representative for Blackstone said via email that “the credit-rating downgrades reflect challenges in the office sector that are well understood by the market,” adding that all of Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s CLO bonds are performing and making payments to investors.