(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Strawman posted:I stand corrected, thought it ended with the Byzantine empire. It did. The Ottoman claim was always horseshit.
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Mar 21, 2024 16:56
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:It did. The Ottoman claim was always horseshit. I'd give it back if I could. I already started calling it Constantinople around my Greek friends cause they keep calling it that and it would be rude to correct them. It is stolen land!
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Mar 21, 2024 16:58
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According to Bild's research (pinch of salt, etc.), there was actually some merit to claims made by FRL about their incursion into the Belgorod region. https://t.me/BILD_Russian/15371 The video is claimed to show Russia using FAB-500 to heavily bomb the Russian village of Kozinka that was partially under FRL's control. The FRL now claim to have killed 600+ Russian soldiers in just several days, and that part I find very hard to believe. It does look like they did manage to cross the border and reach at least one village, though.
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Mar 21, 2024 17:02
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There are houses in Kozinka that are like 50m from the border.
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Mar 21, 2024 17:07
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Charliegrs posted:Dumb question. Why doesn't the US or other NATO countries build Russian artillery ammo like 152mm rounds for Ukraine? I think they probably have tons of old soviet guns still and not many sources for new ammunition. Would it basically be the same problem that they have with building NATO rounds? You'd have to not only make entirely new production lines to supply the ammo, but it'd also be a good idea to start making parts for 152mm guns. It's just not realistic.
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Mar 21, 2024 17:30
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Mr. Apollo posted:In the video, it says that the Czechs went around to various countries and guaranteed them complete anonymity if they sold the Czechs their shells. It says that they also used some of their old Soviet defence contract contacts to locate 152mm shells. DTurtle posted:
Ah, interesting, thanks. Its a bit shocking that its taken 2 years for neutral countries to be approached to sell their stockpiles. But at least its being done now I guess.
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Mar 21, 2024 17:38
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The whole point of this endeavour is that some countries only want to sell if they have plausible deniability for those sales. That's not something the EU is a particularly good vehicle for. The Czech Republic is basically offering to launder shells for countries that don't want to publicly provide arms.
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Mar 21, 2024 17:44
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They're selling them through a recently discovered aforementioned third-party national entity; Czechia
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Mar 21, 2024 17:48
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Charliegrs posted:Dumb question. Why doesn't the US or other NATO countries build Russian artillery ammo like 152mm rounds for Ukraine? I think they probably have tons of old soviet guns still and not many sources for new ammunition. Would it basically be the same problem that they have with building NATO rounds? Offhand, I believe that Bulgaria is doing just that. Just not enough to keep up with demand.
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Mar 21, 2024 18:51
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It wouldn't be very efficient to spin up 152mm production capacity in western countries, if you can just make more 155 instead.
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Mar 21, 2024 18:52
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Canuckistan posted:FFS. It's Istanbul, not Constantinople. Close. It’s called İstanbul.
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Mar 21, 2024 19:07
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I would make 156mm shells for a little extra oomph.
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Mar 21, 2024 19:09
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Nenonen posted:I would make 156mm shells for a little extra oomph. Ha! You jest, but Superior Russian gun bores are designed to be adaptive. 
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Mar 21, 2024 19:27
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I'm really curious where Czechia found this artillery ammunition. South Africa, maybe? India, perhaps?
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Mar 22, 2024 00:26
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Ynglaur posted:I'm really curious where Czechia found this artillery ammunition. South Africa, maybe? India, perhaps?
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Mar 22, 2024 01:32
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We are going to find out when the ammunition shows up in Ukraine
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Mar 22, 2024 02:49
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Charliegrs posted:Dumb question. Why doesn't the US or other NATO countries build Russian artillery ammo like 152mm rounds for Ukraine? I think they probably have tons of old soviet guns still and not many sources for new ammunition. Would it basically be the same problem that they have with building NATO rounds? Ukraine used to have 'tons of old soviet guns' and still has a bunch, but they are more and more switching to NATO guns because that's what people have left to send them and can produce ammo/parts/barrels for. At the start of the war, lots of former Warsaw Pact countries which have largely switched to NATO standards (Poland, Czechia, the Baltic states, Finland tho they were neither Warsaw Pact nor entirely switching to NATO standards) sent all their old 152 and 122mm stuff to Ukraine, but they don't have any left to send. Additionally, artillery barrels don't have a super long life before they have to be replaced, and there is a much better pipeline or NATO caliber replacement barrels than Soviet ones. So long-term sustainment really favors switching to NATO 155mm stuff-Ukraine would be much better served by anyone who wants to help setting up 155mm ammo and barrel/gun production lines, not trying to make ammo for a finite supply of increasingly shot-out barrels on worn out guns.
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Mar 22, 2024 02:53
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Is it reasonable to talk about artillery shells in pure numerical terms? When we say that the West is ramping production, isn't that mostly the newer smarter guided shells that are dramatically more combat effective?
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Mar 22, 2024 03:02
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ShadowHawk posted:LWhen we say that the West is ramping production, isn't that mostly the newer smarter guided shells that are dramatically more combat effective? No. Guided shells are super-expensive and produced in far smaller amounts.
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Mar 22, 2024 03:43
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ShadowHawk posted:When we say that the West is ramping production, isn't that mostly the newer smarter guided shells that are dramatically more combat effective? The total number of M982 Excalibur shells ever produced is in the tens of thousands. There had been ~100,000 M1156 PGK (a much smaller, cheaper guidance kit for standard 155 ammunition) produced by September 2022, so maaaaaybe there’s been 150K produced to date but that’s probably generous. Ukraine is probably firing around 150k shells per month and Russia perhaps double that, so a month’s worth of fighting would consume all the precision artillery shells the US has produced in the past 20 years. Russia also has precision guided artillery shells so it’s not like it’s an entirely one-sided advantage Ukraine has.
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Mar 22, 2024 04:02
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Until they recognize their genocides, they will always be named after a dumb bird that is way too aggressive for its own good.
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Mar 22, 2024 04:39
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To be fair... posted:Until they recognize their genocides, they will always be named after a dumb bird that is way too aggressive for its own good. But enough about Utah.
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Mar 22, 2024 06:02
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OAquinas posted:Ha! You jest, but Superior Russian gun bores are designed to be adaptive. I don't understand why Ukraine doesn't just take a Dremel and sand down a few mm from the inside of the barrel until the 155mm shell fits. Seems pretty straightforward!!!
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Mar 22, 2024 07:59
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Ynglaur posted:I'm really curious where Czechia found this artillery ammunition. South Africa, maybe? India, perhaps? India is a hypothesis I've seen, as it ticks the "has a stockpile that nobody touched during this conflict" and "wants to be kept unnamed because has trade with Russia".
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Mar 22, 2024 08:52
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1771043226352275595 This showed up in my feed. I am very disappointed with this, if it is true but somewhat not surprised. It is an election year and cost of living increases are problematic for politicians in power even if it is caused by events outside their control. Although the inflationary effects due to the war were probably locked in anyway
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Mar 22, 2024 09:30
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fatherboxx posted:India is a hypothesis I've seen, as it ticks the "has a stockpile that nobody touched during this conflict" and "wants to be kept unnamed because has trade with Russia". Are they now scrubbing all the markings off the shells and is that why it's taking so long? Markings on ammo and weapons seen on videos, parts or captured items have exposed 'secret' arms deliveries so many times already.
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Mar 22, 2024 09:46
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CeeJee posted:Are they now scrubbing all the markings off the shells and is that why it's taking so long? I guess with such deliveries it is important that they are completed in relative secrecy so that Russia doesn't interfer while it is in process like they recently did with Ecuador (who commited to transferring some Soviet weapons via US but then Russia halted banana imports and the deal died).
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Mar 22, 2024 09:59
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Shells are bulky, ships take a while, and so does the entire logistics chain. Going from a depot in, say, South Africa via train to a harbour, to Rotterdam, via train through Germany and Poland to the border, via truck or rail into Ukraine (different gauge, remember)… that's quite a ride. Regarding oil prices, the sanctions regime was deliberately tuned to depress oil prices and Russian oil profits while keeping Russian oil flowing. Some of the countries willing to sell arms under the table might not be if they are negatively impacted by the war and figure they'll be less negatively impacted if Ukraine loses faster. That's true for the entirety of Africa, for example, where one can imagine there is less enthusiasm for European stability for various reasons.
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Mar 22, 2024 10:00
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fatherboxx posted:India is a hypothesis I've seen, as it ticks the "has a stockpile that nobody touched during this conflict" and "wants to be kept unnamed because has trade with Russia". It would be a power move of sorts to sell artillery shells to Ukraine and with that money purchase oil from Russia...
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Mar 22, 2024 10:06
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Nenonen posted:It would be a power move of sorts to sell artillery shells to Ukraine and with that money purchase oil from Russia... Even better, they get dollars for the shells and force Russia to accept rupees for the oil.
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Mar 22, 2024 12:07
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FT reports, relying on anonymous sources, that the US has asked Ukraine not to launch drones at Russian refineries because it crosses a red line and... could cause price shocks on the oil market. https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c As my grandma always said, I don't know whether to laugh or cry
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Mar 22, 2024 12:30
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It's not an unreasonable request, actually. Partof Ukraine's strategy is to secure and use support from the West. That support will disappear if Trump is elected. The US will stop all aid immediately, and Europe will then be faced with the arming either Ukraine or themselves. I doubt they can do both--they barely do just one, even with the US--and my guess is they choose to arm themselves. If gas prices increase it makes a Trump victory more likely. Thus, Ukraine striking Russian gas production before Nov 6, 2024 is actively harmful to their own strategy.
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Mar 22, 2024 12:40
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The US has already basically stopped support for half a year, and it previously came with bullshit targeting restrictions. Meanwhile strikes on Ukraine continue to be made with missiles made with American parts, and only enforcement of sanctions is in cases like a Russian national directly selling to Russia.
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Mar 22, 2024 12:49
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Ynglaur posted:It's not an unreasonable request, actually. Partof Ukraine's strategy is to secure and use support from the West. That support will disappear if Trump is elected. The US will stop all aid immediately, and Europe will then be faced with the arming either Ukraine or themselves. I doubt they can do both--they barely do just one, even with the US--and my guess is they choose to arm themselves. sorta agree. I think there is also a quiet fear in the west that if poo poo gets bad enough in russia, the whole powder keg the whole powder keg that is russia will go up and end with some sorta warlord chaos period as factions try to eat each other and could possibly spread outward. is it clancy, sure but it happened before and i can see why the state department is worried about a shitshow. the thing is ukraine doesnt give a poo poo and i dont blame them. you kick enough of the russian domestic support pillars in, then maybe russia starts infighting and taking troops out of urkaine to stop it OR putin gets the gadaffi treatment or flees to the UAE and the military fucks off. I dont see russia leaving Ukraine while putin and co are running stuff and Ukraine knows that. if they can't do offensives right now and are still waiting on mike johnson to unfuck himself. might as well damage what they can.
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Mar 22, 2024 12:53
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It's not going all that much better in Finland though, where discussion has flared on the situation of the ongoing nickel and fertilizer trade with Russia. Russian Nornickel owns a nickel refinery in Finland. Nickel products mined in Russia are brought in via rail and the refined products are sold on the world market. This activity, and the logistics involved, have been quite profitable during the war. Nornickel is one of the largest private companies in Russia and the largest share is owned by oligarch Potanin. He is on US and UK sanctions lists, but not the EU one. Imports of fertilizer have also not stopped due to the war. I don't have numbers but I believe most fertilizer imported to Finland is Russian. YLE asked the minister of economic affairs, Wille Rydman (Finns), why this trade is allowed to continue and also why state-owned enterprises are involved in it. I translate: "An effective sanction hits the target more than us. For this reason this activity has not been sanctioned. Finland and Europe would lose much more than Russia. At this moment an import ban would be a catastrophe to western nations." "A fertilizer export ban would have major negative effects not only on us but on food security of the entire world." "It would be senseless for us to show that we are not accepting Russia's actions by shooting ourselves in the foot." So that is some realpolitik for you. Reportedly these comments have already been repeated in Russian media, as proof for the sanctions being inefficient and chiefly hurting European countries.
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Mar 22, 2024 12:54
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US aid stopped precisely because of the same party that would benefit in an election year from oil price spikes which is not the incumbent Biden or the Democrats. So it stands to reason providing election year fodder to a Republican party that is extremely hostile to Ukraine's continued existence may not be a sound strategy at this time.
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Mar 22, 2024 12:55
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d64 posted:FT reports, relying on anonymous sources, that the US has asked Ukraine not to launch drones at Russian refineries because it crosses a red line and... could cause price shocks on the oil market. Oil is still a global market. Higher prices are bad for everyone especially during a US election year. If Ukraine really wants to hurt their energy capacity, which is largely how the war and country is funded... it could be a serious problem in the future. I wonder how many facilities that are in range of Ukrainian drones were made with Western Equipment. If it's destroyed or damaged they can't get spare part and replacing that kind of stuff is basically impossible.
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Mar 22, 2024 13:08
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US should just buy shells from North Korea. Starve Russia of shells and get many surprisingly sized shells for Ukraine in one go.
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Mar 22, 2024 13:18
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Gucci Loafers posted:Higher prices are bad for everyone especially during a US election year. This is sound logic. Would you say same reasoning could be used if there was a risk economic effects of the war and sanctions would give AfD a victory in Germany? They definitely have succeeded in exploiting it this far. Should we urge Ukrainians to hold their fire then as well?
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Mar 22, 2024 13:23
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Meanwhile massive Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight, including hitting another hydro dam.
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Mar 22, 2024 13:24
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