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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k
In any case, this worries me a great deal.

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BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!
If anything I think the far more likely scenario is that some group not affiliated with Ukraine is behind this, Putin’s secret police will quickly figure this out, and then go hog on blaming Ukraine anyway because it is convenient for them.

I seem to recall the Spanish government did something to that effect after the Madrid bombing: absolutely everything pointed towards Al Qaeda, which was problems for a government going into an election defending their participation in the forever wars in the Middle East, so instead they went all in with blaming the ETA for the attacks, despite everyone everywhere saw the writing on the wall.

People keep suggesting false flag but historically I feel there’s very little precedent for that. Far more likely is that authoritarian regimes make the best of a bad situation, rather than them orchestrating wanton murder on their own populace for some attempt to cement control. Control of what? A country that is well and truly under the thumb of the ruling class?

Three Olives
Apr 10, 2005

Don't forget Hitler's contributions to medicine.
ISIS has claimed credit:

https://twitter.com/SimNasr/status/1771284424367169640

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

They claim everyone's attacks.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

BigglesSWE posted:

If anything I think the far more likely scenario is that some group not affiliated with Ukraine is behind this, Putin’s secret police will quickly figure this out, and then go hog on blaming Ukraine anyway because it is convenient for them.

I seem to recall the Spanish government did something to that effect after the Madrid bombing: absolutely everything pointed towards Al Qaeda, which was problems for a government going into an election defending their participation in the forever wars in the Middle East, so instead they went all in with blaming the ETA for the attacks, despite everyone everywhere saw the writing on the wall.

People keep suggesting false flag but historically I feel there’s very little precedent for that. Far more likely is that authoritarian regimes make the best of a bad situation, rather than them orchestrating wanton murder on their own populace for some attempt to cement control. Control of what? A country that is well and truly under the thumb of the ruling class?

Except in 1999 when FSB under the then prime minister Vladimir Putin was caught red-handed doing the apartment bombings for which Chechnya was blamed for. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010
Apparently Islamic State has claimed responsibility, according to Reuters.

e:f;b.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.
I will say, despite my earlier suspicions, it does seem increasingly unlikely that its any kind of false flag because the Russian state response is so confused and the most likely suspect at the moment, that has already claimed responsibility, doesn't seem to be one that will actually help their geopolitical goals at all.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

khwarezm posted:

I will say, despite my earlier suspicions, it does seem increasingly unlikely that its any kind of false flag because the Russian state response is so confused and the most likely suspect at the moment, that has already claimed responsibility, doesn't seem to be one that will actually help their geopolitical goals at all.

Yeah, and I kind of doubt Putin would have called the U.S. warnings “obvious blackmail” made with “the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society" just a few days ago, if he had known that they were actually coming.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/world/europe/moscow-concert-attack-us-embassy.html

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

man putin isn't just a piece of poo poo he's a massive idiot too

lomzus
Mar 18, 2009
In a speech Tuesday to Russia's federal security agency, Putin called the embassy's warnings about potential terror attacks in Moscow "provocative," saying "these actions resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society."

Putin is a loving idiot

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.
I hate to say this, but between accurately anticipating the actual invasion itself and now anticipating a major terrorist attack in Russia, American intelligence has shown itself to be more effective than I used to believe during the nadir of the war on terror.

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

Baronjutter posted:

man putin isn't just a piece of poo poo he's a massive idiot too

Almost like blaming all your personal and national shortcomings on others and then earnestly believing you're the only correct and sane one in the 21st century with too much fixation on how everybody else is inferior leads to very, very bad decision making

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

lomzus posted:

Putin is a loving idiot

I've been told he's also a piece of poo poo.

As for ISIS claiming this, I was going to ask what they would possibly gain, but it could make sense in that they:
1. Get on the news
2. Hit a target that really would have trouble hitting back

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

pro starcraft loser posted:

I've been told he's also a piece of poo poo.

As for ISIS claiming this, I was going to ask what they would possibly gain, but it could make sense in that they:
1. Get on the news
2. Hit a target that really would have trouble hitting back

3. would not cause US or its allies to put a even larger giant target on their head, while getting the media attention they want.

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

khwarezm posted:

I hate to say this, but between accurately anticipating the actual invasion itself and now anticipating a major terrorist attack in Russia, American intelligence has shown itself to be more effective than I used to believe during the nadir of the war on terror.

Didnt matter what US IC said about WMDs when Colin Powell had his thumb on the scale

Regardless if this is a real false flag, or a terrorist attack that was specifically allowed to happen, or if this is a terrorist attack that slipped past the FSB - Putin will spin it into a Russian 9/11 committed by Ukrainians and muscovites will enlist in droves

SoggyBobcat
Oct 2, 2013

pro starcraft loser posted:

I've been told he's also a piece of poo poo.

As for ISIS claiming this, I was going to ask what they would possibly gain, but it could make sense in that they:
1. Get on the news
2. Hit a target that really would have trouble hitting back
Yeah, I think if it does turn out to be ISIS it was probably because Moscow was an easy target of convenience more than anything else, with Russian security services focused on Ukraine.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

i don't think putin is going to tie anything to do with this with Ukraine, but he will make general authoritarian hay. Not that there's many civil liberties left to take away, but it's a great excuse to ramp up the overt authoritarianism in the country another few notches. Justify more cuts to the things that help people and put it towards "security" poo poo. And knowing the average russian, they'll be all for it.

Tarquinn
Jul 3, 2007

I know I’ve made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you
my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal.
Hell Gem
Oof, that's not good.

god please help me
Jul 9, 2018
I LOVE GIVING MY TAX MONEY AND MY PERSONAL INCOME TO UKRAINE, SLAVA

Baronjutter posted:

man putin isn't just a piece of poo poo he's a massive idiot too

OMON, arrest this person! They're giving away state secrets.

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
Ok I know it's utter conspiracy theory bull poo poo but how are people tying CIA and ISIS together? Look very very very very very hard and tilt your head 30 degrees during a full moon? I'm geniunely curious as to how those conspiracy theory whack jobs have tied the two together.

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

Imagine being one of these shithead terrorists on your suicide attack to make headlines and then find out the same day the UK announces Kate's cancer diagnosis.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
One of the trending conspiracy theories on Twitter is that it's Israel and Zionists behind the attacks, people will find a way to connect their favorite enemies to anything, no matter how convoluted.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
you hate first, then you make the conspiracy theories

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

khwarezm posted:

I hate to say this, but between accurately anticipating the actual invasion itself and now anticipating a major terrorist attack in Russia, American intelligence has shown itself to be more effective than I used to believe during the nadir of the war on terror.

The thing is, both of your views were correct. The intelligence apparatus is not a monolith, and resources and people useful for spying on Russia are not useful for spying on Afghanistan. During the cold war, the cream of the crop worked on the Soviets and the Chinese, and the rejects ended up making messes in the third world.

AKA Pseudonym
May 16, 2004

A dashing and sophisticated young man
Doctor Rope
https://x.com/Olivia_Gazis/status/1771298625114497388?s=20

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

Tai posted:

Ok I know it's utter conspiracy theory bull poo poo but how are people tying CIA and ISIS together? Look very very very very very hard and tilt your head 30 degrees during a full moon? I'm geniunely curious as to how those conspiracy theory whack jobs have tied the two together.

Its become extremely popular among people who considered the Syrian civil war in particular to be nothing but a CIA colour revolution. The general theory is something along the lines of 'America creates and supports militant Islamic groups to fight its secular enemies in the Middle East, in league with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States (points to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) --> America topples Saddam, a new dawn for Islamic militant groups is spawned in occupied Iraq --> America wants to topple Assad --> America funds and supports fake pro-democracy and Liberal opposition who are actually a front for Islamic radicals in Syria --> ISIS floats to the top of these groups, formed from a complex combination of old and new radicals and former Saddam era army veterans they are part of the byzantine false flag to topple the Syrian and Iraqi governments at the secret behest of the CIA and Israel --> America and its allies fake fight ISIS to throw people off the scent when its actually Assad, the Russians and Iran doing the real work to disassemble them --> After the latter countries mostly destroy ISIS, the Americans and in particular the CIA are boiling mad behind closed doors that they were thwarted, but still keep ISIS alive to throw them against their foes, like Russia at the moment, or as a way to organize domestic false flags in Europe and America to keep the population in a fearful state of support for endless war'

Etc etc, a lot of this comes from ISIS mostly being preoccupied with local wars in the Middle East, against Middle Eastern regimes and their tendency to pop up in random seeming places from Nigeria, to Egypt, to the Philippines, and now Russia, while also conspicuously avoiding any major action against Israel in particular (notably in contrast to other Militant groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah). I think this has a lot to do with the fact that ISIS is almost unbelievably sectarian which a lot of non-Muslims can't really grasp moreso than western puppet masters.

sexy tiger boobs
Aug 23, 2002

Up shit creek with a turd for a paddle.

pro starcraft loser posted:

Imagine being one of these shithead terrorists on your suicide attack to make headlines and then find out the same day the UK announces Kate's cancer diagnosis.

Lol who cares about Kate

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



bob dobbs is dead posted:

you hate first, then you make the conspiracy theories

Why the gently caress would Israel attack Russia?

They are bedfellows in genocide

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




I find this very odd

Like I understand Isis did attack Russia, my question is why?

Chechnya? Other disaffected Muslim minorities in Russia?

Funky See Funky Do
Aug 20, 2013
STILL TRYING HARD
Isis is at war with Russia in Syria.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

TulliusCicero posted:

I find this very odd

Like I understand Isis did attack Russia, my question is why?

Chechnya? Other disaffected Muslim minorities in Russia?

Mostly Syria.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Maybe it was the Houthis

Lucky Guy
Jan 24, 2013

TY for no bm

sexy tiger boobs posted:

Lol who cares about Kate

hundreds of millions of dumbasses

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Tai posted:

Ok I know it's utter conspiracy theory bull poo poo but how are people tying CIA and ISIS together? Look very very very very very hard and tilt your head 30 degrees during a full moon? I'm geniunely curious as to how those conspiracy theory whack jobs have tied the two together.

Lol. Lmao. Someone really needs to tell these conspiracy theorist Americans this: Not everything is about you. You are not behind everything that is good in this world. Similarly, not everything that is bad or wrong about the state of the world is America's fault either.

Von Pluring
Sep 19, 2003


Zelensky's Zealots
Pork Pro
No worries. Good thing they'll have that second army now to deal with these sort of things.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Keisari posted:

Lol. Lmao. Someone really needs to tell these conspiracy theorist Americans this: Not everything is about you. You are not behind everything that is good in this world. Similarly, not everything that is bad or wrong about the state of the world is America's fault either.

I think a lot of these americans grew up being taught the whole american exceptionalism propaganda that the USA is the #1 force of good and main character on earth. Then they learn some 101 level "stuff they didn't teach you in high school" but their simple little brains can't handle any nuance so they shift to the USA being the one and only force of evil in the world and all evil flows back to the USA since it's the main character. The idea that the USA is not the one and only main character in the story of world history simply isn't an option for their brains.

TrashMammal
Nov 10, 2022

TulliusCicero posted:

I find this very odd

Like I understand Isis did attack Russia, my question is why?

Chechnya? Other disaffected Muslim minorities in Russia?

americans aren’t the only dumbasses out having adventures in the middle east

Keisari
May 24, 2011

TulliusCicero posted:

I find this very odd

Like I understand Isis did attack Russia, my question is why?

Chechnya? Other disaffected Muslim minorities in Russia?

I wonder, is it possible that ISIS is probing/testing Russia? Perhaps they are interested in formenting poo poo in Dagestan? Or perhaps the simpler explanation is the one posted earlier: to get on the news without retaliation from the West.

Mistle
Oct 11, 2005

Eckot's comic relief cousin from out of town
Grimey Drawer

pro starcraft loser posted:

I've been told he's also a piece of poo poo.

As for ISIS claiming this, I was going to ask what they would possibly gain, but it could make sense in that they:
1. Get on the news
2. Hit a target that really would have trouble hitting back

Even if they're stealing credit it does two things:

1. Claims capability against an established government, Russia(for what that's worth)
2. Requires the actual perpetrators to post receipts, potentially outing them with incidental infodumping

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Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Just speculating, but I seem to recall that a fair number of really scary Chechnyans ended up in ISIS. Maybe some of them held a grudge?

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