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fatherboxx)
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steinrokkan posted:Yes, Luka only takes the manliest animal pics Kitty!  DTurtle posted:The current policy is to wait until a missile crosses into Polish air space and only potentially shoot it down if it strays too far. If it quickly leaves again (into Ukraine) then a protest is filed to and ignored by Russia. Perhaps if Russia did not want their missiles to be shot down by Poland, they should not be flying through airspace at the complete other end of the country from where they are. I don't even know what the actual flight path is that would cause this to happen, are they trying to skirt the edge of air defenses and hoping they can just slink through on the borders? It seems like Poland could very easily declare "any missile within 5km of our shared border with Ukraine may be shot down to prevent any accidental issues of violating our sovereignty," what is Russia going to say, "no actually that's Russia you can't do that?"
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Mar 27, 2024 23:11
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APologies if this was posted already but I didn't see it. Zelensky replaced Oleksiy Danilov, head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, with Oleksandr Lytvynenko, who is head of the foreign intelligence service. Some analysts are suggesting it was because Danilov publicly criticized Li Hui, the Chinese Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs for saying that "in the end, everyone agrees that war must always be resolved through negotiations" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-security-council-secretary-dismissed-says-presidential-decree-2024-03-26/ quote:Ukraine's Zelenskiy replaces top security official in new reshuffle
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Mar 28, 2024 00:03
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Danilov in general was always very outspoken and not always in a good way. I'm surprised Budanov hasn't been replaced yet, really.
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Mar 28, 2024 00:09
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Mr. Apollo posted:APologies if this was posted already but I didn't see it. Zelensky replaced Oleksiy Danilov, head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, with Oleksandr Lytvynenko, who is head of the foreign intelligence service. "I don't understand who can take our territories, our lands and throw them away like that. Because some Hui, I apologize, surname as it is, or someone else (it seemed) that they should decide this." Danilov took the bait on this unfortunately Qtotonibudinibudet posted:they seriously sent someone named "Li Hui" to conduct peace talks between russia and china?
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Mar 28, 2024 00:21
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Is this one trolling from the title or is there actually something going on? title: NATO DEPLOYS TROOPS, EXPLOSIONS IN BELGOROD! Breaking Ukraine War News With The Enforcer (Day 763) Is this person reliable, as well?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oACis4Bic6M
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Mar 28, 2024 03:36
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Is this one trolling from the title or is there actually something going on? title: NATO DEPLOYS TROOPS, EXPLOSIONS IN BELGOROD! Breaking Ukraine War News With The Enforcer (Day 763) No.
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Mar 28, 2024 03:42
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Volmarias posted:Perhaps if Russia did not want their missiles to be shot down by Poland, they should not be flying through airspace at the complete other end of the country from where they are. I don't even know what the actual flight path is that would cause this to happen, are they trying to skirt the edge of air defenses and hoping they can just slink through on the borders? You are effectively firing missiles into Ukrainian airspace, and not every missile is going to hit their intended target. At the very least you should have some kind of system of warning Ukrainian AD of the new dot on radar, otherwise they might try to shoot down your missile.
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Mar 28, 2024 04:38
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I think this got some discussion when it came out 3 weeks ago, but the WSJ report on Ukr special forces fighting for the Sudanese army is really wild. https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-is-now-fighting-russia-in-sudan-87caf1d8 A 30-year-old HUR officer known by the call sign King, who led the first group of Ukrainians to arrive in Sudan, said his team found a vastly different kind of conflict than the one they had left behind in Eastern Europe. Soldiers on both sides fought in sandals and sometimes fired entire magazines’ worth of ammunition while holding their rifles over their heads, unable to see what they were shooting at. Much of the Sudanese army hadn’t been paid since the fighting began months earlier, sapping their motivation. Fighters didn’t wear markings to show which side they were on, and friendly fire was a regular threat. Neither side attacked at night. The Ukrainians, equipped with night-vision goggles and drones, saw an opening. “That was our big advantage—we knew how to operate at night,” King said. They would leave their base around 8 p.m., heading into the city in groups of about half a dozen, traveling in the backs of vans. In a video viewed by the Journal, the Ukrainians fired at an apartment building, which King said was an RSF base. Once RSF reinforcements arrived, the Ukrainians dropped munitions on them from drones. (He said there were no civilians in the area.) At first, the RSF fighters—who were used to sleeping in the open along the front line—were caught off guard by the night raids. Then, they began to hide their positions. The Ukrainian teams always pulled back to their base by morning, wary of drawing attention. “Even if we wanted to do something during the day, we’re a group of white people,” King said. “Everyone would realize what was going on.”
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Mar 28, 2024 04:55
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Is this one trolling from the title or is there actually something going on? title: NATO DEPLOYS TROOPS, EXPLOSIONS IN BELGOROD! Breaking Ukraine War News With The Enforcer (Day 763) You really actually think some random YouTube that goes by the name "The Enforcer" would be reliable at all? Did you just start using the Internet yesterday?
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Mar 28, 2024 04:57
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Volmarias posted:Kitty! Basically. They skirt the air defense and enter the country from the northwest so they can bomb Lviv and Kyiv from that direction, where there will be less air defense.
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Mar 28, 2024 06:49
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https://www.twz.com/news-features/ultra-rare-russian-armored-vip-escape-vehicle-spotted-in-ukraine Imagine telling the original Soviets involved in producing this that one day it would be destroyed by an unmanned drone in a war with Ukraine.
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Mar 28, 2024 06:52
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D-Pad posted:https://www.twz.com/news-features/ultra-rare-russian-armored-vip-escape-vehicle-spotted-in-ukraine Blyatnikov, you are too deep in your vodka again!
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Mar 28, 2024 07:40
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Volmarias posted:Perhaps if Russia did not want their missiles to be shot down by Poland, they should not be flying through airspace at the complete other end of the country from where they are. I don't even know what the actual flight path is that would cause this to happen, are they trying to skirt the edge of air defenses and hoping they can just slink through on the borders? quote:It seems like Poland could very easily declare "any missile within 5km of our shared border with Ukraine may be shot down to prevent any accidental issues of violating our sovereignty," what is Russia going to say, "no actually that's Russia you can't do that?"
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Mar 28, 2024 08:17
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I do not believe anyone in NATO cares about Russian complaints that there missiles are being shot down close to NATO borders. I think the discussion revolves around mission creep. A lot of expensive assets will be needed close up to the Ukrainian and Belorussian border, (and also likely in the Baltic states), then then coordination between NATO forces and Ukraine required, as the decision space is measured in seconds. It will likely require a de facto no fly zone for several hundred kilometers from NATO borders. And at that point Putin may feel the need to escalate, which the Germans seem to want to avoid.
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Mar 28, 2024 10:28
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There currently aren’t any Russian missiles being shot down by NATO. And there is exactly zero talk about a no fly zone.
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Mar 28, 2024 10:49
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DTurtle posted:And there is exactly zero talk about a no fly zone. So what phrasing should we use when talking about a zone that no Russian missiles may fly?
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Mar 28, 2024 11:05
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Dick Ripple posted:So what phrasing should we use when talking about a zone that no Russian missiles may fly? Airspace sovereignty. It's not exactly a novel idea that other countries are not allowed to have their missiles fly through your airspace.
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Mar 28, 2024 11:11
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A no fly zone also involves destroying Russian assets on the ground. Shooting down missles that threaten your own airspace is not "creeping towards a no fly zone"
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Mar 28, 2024 12:51
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BabyFur Denny posted:Airspace sovereignty. It's not exactly a novel idea that other countries are not allowed to have their missiles fly through your airspace. The original guardian article was talking about shooting down missiles "close to NATO borders", so not in Poland. I don't think there's any controversy about shooting down missiles within Poland's border.
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Mar 28, 2024 14:14
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genericnick posted:The original guardian article was talking about shooting down missiles "close to NATO borders", so not in Poland. I don't think there's any controversy about shooting down missiles within Poland's border. *shrug* Give Russia a taste of it's own medicine. "That missile was close to our airspace and headed towards it, we had to react. Sorry not sorry about your missile that was headed towards Ukrainian power infrastructure but these things are chaotic and we had to be sure. Going forward we are proposing a bilateral effort to clearly announce ahead of time what missiles will be fired, where, and when so all parties can avoid such chaotic situations. We look forward to our Russian counterparts participating in this endeavor."
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Mar 28, 2024 14:23
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Assuming Russia keeps sending missiles through Polish airspace, if they decide to start intercepting then one of those interceptors is bound to malfunction, and fly into Belarus. It might even would or kill some civilians. That's probably more than NATO and Poland want to risk. Even EW might be dangerous, as spoofed missile might end up hitting Poland. No idea if it was mentioned but Russian Ambassador was summoned to one of ministries, and dude has straight up refused. Then he left it the Poland before he could be thrown out. loving disgrace that one.
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Mar 28, 2024 15:05
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genericnick posted:The original guardian article was talking about shooting down missiles "close to NATO borders", so not in Poland. I don't think there's any controversy about shooting down missiles within Poland's border. Shooting missiles close to border is impossible to do without at least some debris going to the other side, so there is no 'shooting down missiles only on the NATO side of border'. Physical things have momentum and sometimes they will miss completely.
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Mar 28, 2024 16:00
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I'm perfectly fine with Poland shooting down Russian missiles before they even left the production facility, in Russia. What is Russia going to do? Shake their fist more vigorously?
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Mar 28, 2024 16:17
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Unless it will be lasers  (yeah I know it doesn't work like that)
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Mar 28, 2024 16:19
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Nitrox posted:I'm perfectly fine with Poland shooting down Russian missiles before they even left the production facility, in Russia. What is Russia going to do? Shake their fist more vigorously? Russia does in fact have a pretty coherent escalation response to NATO airstrikes on military facilities. I am no fan of Russia or its threats, but that seems like something they could, in fact, meaningfully respond to.
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Mar 28, 2024 19:48
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Speaking of Poland, there is a news story about Poland finding what it claims to be a Russian spy ring. Hi, I spotted this article on The Journal: Poland raids Russian spy network targeting EU with propaganda and disinformation
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Mar 28, 2024 20:19
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Cocaine Bear posted:A no fly zone also involves destroying Russian assets on the ground. Does it? I hadn't heard this definition.
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Mar 28, 2024 20:39
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Gort posted:Does it? I hadn't heard this definition. An NFZ involves sending up aircraft to patrol an area and part of ensuring the safety to patrol the NFZ is engaging and destroying air defenses in range of the patrol areas.
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Mar 28, 2024 20:46
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An interesting and completely unsurprising turn at Finnish border after the Moscow terror attack: FSB says it has captured four migrants on the way to Finland quote:Four men from the Middle East who were travelling to Finland were arrested in Russia, according to Fontanka and Online47, among others. Russian authorities have not tried to stop migrants headed to Finnish border between last November when this phenomenon started and the terror attack. Right now the Finnish right wing government is frantically trying to prepare a "push back" law that breaks the constitution and human rights, before the snow situation at the border becomes such that people could just walk through forests. Btw. the border guards union has been extremely salty about the proposed law, as it is seen to be throwing them under the bus if and when they have to make decisions that they aren't capable of making and that would make them liable on those decisions. Panzeh posted:An NFZ involves sending up aircraft to patrol an area and part of ensuring the safety to patrol the NFZ is engaging and destroying air defenses in range of the patrol areas. Well, AD assets with active radars, at least, because locking a radar beam to a plane is an escalation even if no missile is fired. It's not like milint is actively looking for infantry with IR homing MANPADS to bomb because the aircraft stay out of their reach.
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Mar 28, 2024 21:17
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Cocaine Bear posted:A no fly zone also involves destroying Russian assets on the ground. Shooting down missles that threaten your own airspace is not "creeping towards a no fly zone" There is a reason I used the word de facto before no fly zone. And although SEAD can be part of a NFZ, that is not always the case. Especially since most of this protection of ''airspace sovereignty'' will take place over Ukraine, in which I am fairly certain there is no Russian AD outside of the occupied areas. The diffilcult part comes with that to do about Belarus, as Russia has and continues to use it as a springboard for strikes deep in Ukraine. At this point I would believe Poland or its NATO partners to be very reluctant to strike anything in Belarussian airspace. I do agree that NATO has no intention of creeping towards a NFZ. But the practicalities of preventing unintentional/intentional Russian missile from entering NATO airspace requires a coordination with Ukrainian AD at a very close level to prevent NATO from shooting down Ukrainians or their ordnance. It also involves a line at a certain distance from NATO (probably only Poland and Romania in this case) borders in which anything they are certain to be Russian will be shot down in order to prevent penetration of sovereign airspace. And depending on what threat is identified, the operators have most likely seconds to make that decision. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 08:55 on Mar 29, 2024 |
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Mar 29, 2024 08:42
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If SEAD isn't a part of your no-fly-zone then the people you're no-fly-zoning will shoot SAMs at you
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Mar 29, 2024 19:31
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FuturePastNow posted:If SEAD isn't a part of your no-fly-zone then the people you're no-fly-zoning will shoot SAMs at you Well, there is a range factor.
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Mar 29, 2024 19:41
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FuturePastNow posted:If SEAD isn't a part of your no-fly-zone then the people you're no-fly-zoning will shoot SAMs at you Oh, *then* you SEAD them
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Mar 29, 2024 20:34
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The Question IRL posted:Speaking of Poland, there is a news story about Poland finding what it claims to be a Russian spy ring. Oh yeah, that was all other the news. The shitheads even paid European politicians to help spread Russian propaganda. German news magazine Süddeutsche published an article about this scandal today.
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Mar 29, 2024 20:58
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Libluini posted:Oh yeah, that was all other the news. The shitheads even paid European politicians to help spread Russian propaganda. I wonder if those two political idiots from Ireland are on it (they're damned embarrassing). 
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Mar 29, 2024 21:09
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The purpose of the no-fly zones imposed on Iraq following Desert Storm was, practically speaking, to destroy Iraqi air defenses when they targeted US and allied fighter jets flying over the north or south. It was also closely associated with Clinton ordering several strikes on Iraqi targets outside the NFZs. It seems likely that if NATO tried something like that they'd be pulled directly into the Ukraine war in a very dangerous way.
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Mar 30, 2024 02:15
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:The purpose of the no-fly zones imposed on Iraq following Desert Storm was, practically speaking, to destroy Iraqi air defenses when they targeted US and allied fighter jets flying over the north or south. It was also closely associated with Clinton ordering several strikes on Iraqi targets outside the NFZs. It seems likely that if NATO tried something like that they'd be pulled directly into the Ukraine war in a very dangerous way. Not exactly being 'pulled' into the war so much as jumping in head-first. A no-fly zone is an act of war, and not a small one.
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Mar 30, 2024 18:53
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Ratoslov posted:Not exactly being 'pulled' into the war so much as jumping in head-first. A no-fly zone is an act of war, and not a small one. Kinda. The blockade on Cuba is technically an act of war in the same fashion, there's degrees of gently caress around and find out to it where it potentially allows deescalation and for the other part to respond in a proportionate way that isn't just "declare war".
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Mar 30, 2024 20:13
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Raenir Salazar posted:Kinda. The blockade on Cuba is technically an act of war in the same fashion, there's degrees of gently caress around and find out to it where it potentially allows deescalation and for the other part to respond in a proportionate way that isn't just "declare war". Very true, in fact the JFK administration would like to remind you that it was a "quarantine" and therefore not an act of war according to this concept we totally just made up.
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Mar 30, 2024 21:47
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EasilyConfused posted:Very true, in fact the JFK administration would like to remind you that it was a "quarantine" and therefore not an act of war according to this concept we totally just made up. Yeah I forgot the exactly word but that's basically exactly what I'm getting at. No Fly Zones aren't exactly a thing either, the No Fly Zones in Iraq after GW1 was basically the first use of it, weren't authorized by the UN, and the UNSECGEN felt that they were illegal and France agreed and withdrew from it. Basically where there is a will, there's a way if the other side blinks or only partially gets up from their chair.
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Mar 30, 2024 22:29
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