Dance Officer posted:

Oh, sorry. I guess I forgot that the US is a hellscape.

Lockback posted:

I remember when small mom and pops could give you two slices of pizza and a fountain drink for under $5. That disappeared well before COVID and I feel like there was just a timer on when fast food would finally abandon that layer.

Agronox posted:

I guess this is but the trick to cheap fast food these days is to always use the apps and, I cannot stress this enough, always pick it up yourself.

The McD app is great for getting free McMuffins, fries, and coffee. Right now over at Wendy's there's an NCAA promotion where you can get a $2 Dave's Double while the tournament is going on, and that's a fantastic burger for the price. Taco Bell has $5 or $6 value boxes that you can only order through the app. And so on...

Even as late as early 2022 there were still $1 slice joints in the heart of Manhattan. (Maybe they're still around, I haven't been to the city much since.)

Cyrano4747 posted:

The fucker of this, with McDonald's specifically, is that the app only has a limited subset of all their food. I notice this specifically with breakfast, as there is no way to order a sausage egg mcmuffin, which is what I like to eat. Go into the drive through? Right there on the menu. But no where to be found in the app.

Boris Galerkin posted:

Cyrano4747 posted:

*shrug* just wasn't an option for me the last time I got it, about a week ago. My wife and I spent so long looking through the loving menus I had to rush out of the house if I wasn't going to miss breakfast entirely.

Maybe we're both idiots, but two adults scrolling the app methodically looking for one specific thing couldn't find it.

edit: this isn't the first time this has happened with the app, just the most recent. It feels like they adjust the menu on the fly with it a lot, which makes a bunch of sense. The last time it was those little apple pies. Not in the app, but when I got there to pick up the order it sure as poo poo was on the menu so I just bought some in store.

Agronox posted:

I guess this is but the trick to cheap fast food these days is to always use the apps and, I cannot stress this enough, always pick it up yourself.

The McD app is great for getting free McMuffins, fries, and coffee. Right now over at Wendy's there's an NCAA promotion where you can get a $2 Dave's Double while the tournament is going on, and that's a fantastic burger for the price. Taco Bell has $5 or $6 value boxes that you can only order through the app. And so on...

Even as late as early 2022 there were still $1 slice joints in the heart of Manhattan. (Maybe they're still around, I haven't been to the city much since.)

pmchem posted:

I hate making GBS threads up my phone with corp apps that just want my data but I was telling my wife this same thing the other week, that I was about to capitulate and install some apps for drive thru places because when i do have to eat at them there’s always deals on the app

Cyrano4747 posted:

I'm actually OK with this kind of thing in principle, just because they're giving me something for the data. It's just a free burger or whatever but hey, it's something. And it's pretty easy to deny the app so many permissions that it can't really break out and give them all the poo poo it wants. That said, iirc from when we installed the McDonalds app it asks for some loving crazy permissions. Like it wanted 24h access to the GPS.

Also I make sure to close that poo poo immediately upon ordering.

That said, the ultimate goal is to make the apps the preferred way of ordering and at that point they'll cut the specials.

Agronox posted:

Right now over at Wendy's there's an NCAA promotion where you can get a $2 Dave's Double while the tournament is going on,

Hadlock posted:

That's just... An enormous loss of wealth? Are these funds just writing down the loss and moving on?

Sundae posted:

Not like I know poo poo about gently caress, but I'd venture a guess that there's a bit of the old thing with people's house values going on as well: your house isn't actually "worth more" until you sell it and realize the gains. Maybe the reverse holds true on a long-enough timeline. Hold onto that underwater commercial property as long as you can and ignore the value decline, don't price it in until it's more convenient / comes up enough? If you're hosed either way, might as well hold on until you're a little less hosed?

New York Times (free link) posted:

Employers added 303,000 jobs in the 39th straight month of growth.

Another month — another burst of strong job gains. Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday.

It was the 39th straight month of job growth. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February.

The continuing strength, labor market analysts say, may increase confidence among investors and the Federal Reserve that the U.S. economy has reached a healthy equilibrium in which a steady roll of commercial activity, growing employment and rising wages coexist.

It’s a remarkable change from a year ago, when top financial analysts were largely convinced that a recession was only months away.

From late 2021 to early 2023, inflation was outstripping wage gains, but that now appears to have firmly shifted, even as wage increases cool from their peak average rates in 2022. Average hourly earnings for workers rose 0.3 percent in March from the previous month and were up 4.1 percent from March 2023.

The “continued vigor,” said Joe Davis, the global chief economist at Vanguard, has come from “household balance sheets bolstered by pandemic-related fiscal policy and a virtuous cycle where job growth, wages and consumption fuel one another.”

Data analysts note that better-than-expected gains in business productivity and work force participation have added fuel, too. Businesses large and small have had to navigate an obstacle course this decade: a pandemic, inflationary pressures and a steep rise in the cost of credit. But recently released data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows corporate profits have reached a record high.

Officials at the Federal Reserve, which rapidly raised interest rates in 2022 and early 2023 to combat inflation, have expressed cautious optimism that they are approaching their goals of low unemployment and more stable prices.

Inflation has fallen drastically from its peak of 7.1 percent, according to the Fed’s preferred measure. But it ticked up in February to 2.5 percent, still a half-percentage point away from the Fed’s target. And some worry that rising oil prices or geopolitical chaos could upend the delicate state of affairs.

Sal Gilbertie, the chief executive at Teucrium Trading, which covers commodities markets, said he thinks that energy prices could do a “touch higher on oil if Ukraine keeps the pressure on Russia and economic numbers remain healthy.”

Lydia DePillis posted:

After some wild revisions in the last few months, they were relatively tame this month, adding a collective 22,000 jobs over January and February.

Ben Casselman posted:

The household survey, which had been showing much weaker job gains (and even outright losses) in recent months, was much stronger in March. Nearly half a million more people were employed last month, according to that survey.

Lydia DePillis posted:

This is starting to look like not a slowdown. Last month’s gain is now substantially above the previous 12-month average of 231,000 jobs.

Lydia DePillis posted:

In a landmark, the leisure and hospitality industry returned to its employment level in February 2020, and now sits at about 16.9 million jobs.

Ben Casselman posted:

The Black unemployment rate rose 0.8 percentage points to 6.4 percent, the highest since August 2022. The monthly numbers can bounce around, but the big jump is certainly concerning.

Hadlock posted:

I kind of feel like the 35% vacancy is not including square footage that's permanently off market, or it's being "warehoused" or they're just straight up lying. I dunno what you want to call it but I'd guess the "real vacancy rate" in SF is north of 60%. Our floor plate is designed for about 200 people but I think we've got like 70 people at this office, with maybe 25-30 that actually show up tues-thurs.

bob dobbs is dead posted:

its a 50%, 90%, 95% mispricing. only the investors are leveraged to hell and back so they'll lose their shirts at 25% down. wile e coyote energy, frankly

real estate is basically deadweight loss for an economy so i unironically think thats one of the actual sources of the broad-based good economic news

bob dobbs is dead posted:

its a 50%, 90%, 95% mispricing. only the investors are leveraged to hell and back so they'll lose their shirts at 25% down. wile e coyote energy, frankly

real estate is basically deadweight loss for an economy so i unironically think thats one of the actual sources of the broad-based good economic news

Hadlock posted:

Westfield Mall, those hotels in downtown SF that represent 10% of all hotel occupancy in the city, etc, all those are bought with what's called a no-recourse loan with an enormous balloon payment due after ~5 years. And so now all those balloon payments are coming due, one by one. As long as the value keeps going up, your equity grows, the bank gets enormous refinance fees, everyone wins. I'm not sure how it works for B and C class office space, and I don't know poo poo about gently caress either, but I'm of the assumption that ~95% of commercial real estate is on this debt-equity treadmill.

Jp Morgan Chase and others have been releasing statements since like 2022 basically saying that it's largely regional banks that are holding this debt, and they're going to write down (I forget) $180 billion in losses between now and (I forget) 2027

Probably there's a bunch of people underwater on properties hoping the economy tanks and they can refinance their blue chip properties before they run out of money. The guys who walked away from the SF hotels said they'd been running at a loss for like 18 months.

No recourse means, apparently, you can just hand over the deed and keys with no penalty or fees. They only offer these kinds of loans on class a properties that are virtually guaranteed to generate revenue forever, like hotels within 10 blocks of downtown sf, or shopping centers with supermarkets in them

Both of those links are great reads with way more detail than I can convey

Discendo Vox posted:

Building-sized escape rooms. Indoor driving ranges. Elaborate embedded theater production experiences. Casinos.

D-Pad posted:

I personally am not sure the push by employees to continue to work from home is going to last in the long run. I worked from home for almost 6 years during the 2010s and interacted with a lot of people who did the same. In my anecdotal experience everybody loves it for 2-3 years at the most and then things start changing. Personally, I started feeling massively isolated and depressed as I approached year 3 and absolutely started to hate it after that. Some people thrive in the environment, but there is a significant chunk of people who will be like me and after a couple of years realize the total lack of social interaction is a real problem for them. Particularly when you have a family so you aren't able to go out and be social frequently in your off hours and going to work everyday, as much as it sucked in so many ways, was actually providing a lot of social benefits that you just don't realize until they've been gone for a while. But like I said there are also a lot of personality types that thrive in a wfh setup and even do better more productive work on an indefinite basis compared to the office environment. I predict we will see a split in wfh sentiments between the two groups in the next year or two and it will be interesting to see what happens. Hybrid programs will prolong the status quo for longer than pure wfh but 1-2 days in the office is not enough for some people I believe.

D-Pad posted:

I personally am not sure the push by employees to continue to work from home is going to last in the long run. I worked from home for almost 6 years during the 2010s and interacted with a lot of people who did the same. In my anecdotal experience everybody loves it for 2-3 years at the most and then things start changing. Personally, I started feeling massively isolated and depressed as I approached year 3 and absolutely started to hate it after that. Some people thrive in the environment, but there is a significant chunk of people who will be like me and after a couple of years realize the total lack of social interaction is a real problem for them. Particularly when you have a family so you aren't able to go out and be social frequently in your off hours and going to work everyday, as much as it sucked in so many ways, was actually providing a lot of social benefits that you just don't realize until they've been gone for a while. But like I said there are also a lot of personality types that thrive in a wfh setup and even do better more productive work on an indefinite basis compared to the office environment. I predict we will see a split in wfh sentiments between the two groups in the next year or two and it will be interesting to see what happens. Hybrid programs will prolong the status quo for longer than pure wfh but 1-2 days in the office is not enough for some people I believe.

Baddog posted:

I dunno, it's kinda weird that we've built in so much 'social' expectations to the office environment. And there does seem to be a sea change for the younger generations.

Work is where you should be working, not loving around. If I could wave a magic wand and have everyone just accept that actual *work* should be about 20 hours a week, (most of us have probably put in way less and been extremely productive in comparison to peers), and your social needs should come from outside interests, I think everything would be fine. Meet people at the gym, your kid's school, outdoors - anywhere but the goddamn office. For me it was extremely unhealthy to spend 70+ hours a week in the office, and most of that was just waiting for someone else to get their poo poo done and loving around with everyone else who was also bought into the "we have to be here because this is what we all do".

But now we definitely have the technology to coordinate all of that poo poo and be connected to the work "pipelines" without having to be sitting physically asses to elbows with each other.

Hadlock posted:

To the 10 posts in a row with no links, If you're gonna quote facts feel free to drop a link in the post to back it up

Blackstone earnings report posted:

Marking a 58 percent drop compared to the same period in 2022, according to the firm’s recently announced earnings filing and a report by Mingtiandi. The decrease in income from asset sales and disposals was a result of a market slowdown, with net realizations down by 98 percent,

"Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Gray posted:

Blackstone’s leadership remains confident in the company’s ability to outpace the market and shift into the highest-yielding segments of the real estate industry. Logistics now constitute 40 percent of Blackstone’s real estate portfolio, up from zero in 2007, with market rents for warehouse space generally growing at double-digit rates. Despite the downturn, the company is ready to take advantage of potential opportunities, with a sizable amount of investment dollars available to capitalize on dislocations. “Our latest fundraising cycle has positioned us very well for the current environment.  We have nearly $200 billion in dry powder to take advantage of dislocations.”

Cyrano4747 posted:

The people who use the office as a social club are a big part of the reason the rest of us want to stay WFH.

D-Pad posted:

I personally am not sure the push by employees to continue to work from home is going to last in the long run.

Jenkl posted:

People who wont get hobbies want the rest of us to suffer.