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reignonyourparade posted:Perhaps that would be better for what the rules SHOULD be for getting security clearances, but that's not the same as what the rules ARE for security clearances, which is "Don't smoke weed." It’s also the lack of alcohol use and the fact that their missions are good for the application itself without really entangling you with foreign contacts in a way that could be detrimental to the security clearance.
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Apr 4, 2024 22:31
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Speaking of Mormon secession, that's the real issue with that Civil War map. The modern US security services is apparently full of Mormons (due to their lifestyles being very compatible with getting security clearances), so it'd be in their interest to remain loyal and grow their power within the rump (and perhaps later reconstituted) US rather than try to secede. No idea how accurate it is, but one podcast I listen to always jokes that the security services is made up entirely of alcoholic Mormons and teatotaling Irish Catholics
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Apr 5, 2024 00:59
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I saw an interesting article on the Standaard site today. I apologize in advance for this being extremely obscure to most of you as it relates specifically to Flemish politics, but I thought it might be interesting to share as it relates to the discussion we were having earlier about ideology and gender. Basically, they asked people which party they theoretically could see themselves voting for: https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20240405_94374821  "It is highly likely that I would vote for [...] at some point", where Alle leeftijden = All ages. The gender disparity immediately stands out, and is much more pronounced for Gen Z. Vlaams Belang is a no-poo poo far right party, one of the oldest and most consistently successful in Europe, N-VA is a more conventional 'big tent' but still broadly right-wing nationalist party. Both of them are deeply unpopular with young women relative to their overall success. The reverse is true for Groen, our Greens (as you probably could have guessed). The three 'traditional' parties of Vooruit (social democrats), CD&V (Christian democrats) and Open VLD (liberals) show only small differences. So this seems to confirm that men in the West currently trend more right-wing than women, especially among the younger generations, but there is still a hint of that old truism that women, regardless of left vs. right, are less likely to vote for parties that are considered 'extreme' by society. Women skewing left notably does not extend to PVDA, who are basically communists with the serial numbers filed off. In fact, according to this young men are actually more likely to vote communist than young women are. One final observation is that, regardless of anything else, it is kind of insane that 32% of Gen Z boys/men could easily see themselves voting for the far right and often openly racist Vlaams Belang, especially when you consider that this cohort trends much more non-white than the general population.
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Apr 5, 2024 16:24
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i dont think we see explicit breakdowns like that a lot here in dk, the most recent ones i could dig up was from before the most recent election & so excludes the rear end in a top hat Scab Party & is therefore useless for any real analysis. young people are more interested in climate than farmer subsidies, tho. but also woke. https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/farvel-til-magtpartierne-saadan-stemte-de-unge-til-valget https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/de-unge-er-til-klima-de-aeldre-er-til-sundhed also i made this stupid gif before i realized that Scab Party wasnt in there so it feels a waste not to post it. basically without the Scab Party (M), the only interesting thing to say is that young people are more spread out when voting and old people tend to stick to the old left/right centrist parties 
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Apr 5, 2024 20:17
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Are these Scabs a new far right party or something? I think the main generational trend is that young people tend to vote more 'extreme', which we traditionally limit to the far left, but it can include the far right as well. You can see that in the graphs I posted, at least with young men. Come to think of it, in your gif as well, at least I assume that S and V are the 'traditional' parties, and you can see their support rising as you get to the older cohorts.
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Apr 5, 2024 21:42
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Yeah that trend with Gen Z seems to be pretty generally true - The Economist had a pretty good article about it last week: https://www.economist.com/international/2024/03/13/why-the-growing-gulf-between-young-men-and-women Basically men and women had roughly similar politics until people born around 1997, at which point it started to increasingly diverge, most strikingly in places like South Korea. It also makes a good point though that eg the average Gen Z man in Germany is still more left wing than the average Gen Z woman in France, but in general Gen Z guys are slightly more conservative than older cohorts, while Gen Z girls are much more left. Whether it’s super accurate or not, no idea. I know two Gen Z girls and zero Gen Z guys. And I’m pretty sure that 99% of people on this forum are either millennial or late Gen X. Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Apr 5, 2024 |
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Apr 5, 2024 21:42
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Phlegmish posted:Are these Scabs a new far right party or something? no sorry thats what i call Moderaterne. former V (clasical liberal/center right) pm/chairman was ousted and formed a new party, now very moderate but still full of bullshit, yet enough to hoodwink idiots. so the current govt is S (socdem) + M (~centrist~) + V (see above). since the election, at least two M-parliamentarians have been excluded or left for being sex pests and or scam artists. tells you a bit about the type of people they attract. actually, i think maybe 3. anyway, they jumped to further right parties so the lovely govt still has majority support his (Lars Løkke Rasmussen) whole shpiel was to unite denmark and avoid extremism. blah blah, soft populism, denounce laws that he initiated, etc. hence i call them scabs, he is a spanner in the works. theyre only managing to piss everyone off, left and right and center. Carthag Tuek fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Apr 5, 2024 |
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Apr 5, 2024 21:54
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Saladman posted:Basically men and women had roughly similar politics until people born around 1997, at which point it started to increasingly diverge, most strikingly in places like South Korea. I would love to see the stats for South Korea, although maybe it wouldn't be that interesting, since I'm pretty sure they have a two-party system, and I don't know how much these parties actually diverge from each other. I barely know any Gen Z people, either. My generation born around 1990 also had its (usually male) edgelords who supported Vlaams Belang, though not to this extent. That said, I wouldn't describe them as 'conservative', I think it's more of a typical alt-right mindset fueled by the Internet and social media. I would say in this case much of the appeal comes from it being a 'subversive' act, there's an agreement in Flanders known as the cordon sanitaire, which excludes VB from power at all levels. They also regularly get fines and convictions for hate speech and the like, which allows them to portray themselves as martyrs. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Apr 5, 2024 |
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Apr 5, 2024 22:04
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In Denmark even the Social Democrats, generally the most boring moderate beige champagne socialists in most other countries, are virulent mega racists so the Danish far-right is genuinely bonkers because even the mega racism is too lefty hippy dippy for them.
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Apr 5, 2024 22:08
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Carthag Tuek posted:no sorry thats what i call Moderaterne. former V (clasical liberal/center right) pm/chairman was ousted and formed a new party, now very moderate but still full of bullshit, yet enough to hoodwink idiots. so the current govt is S (socdem) + M (~centrist~) + V (see above). since the election, at least two M-parliamentarians have been excluded or left for being sex pests and or scam artists. tells you a bit about the type of people they attract. actually, i think maybe 3. anyway, they jumped to further right parties so the lovely govt still has majority support This all seems very familiar. The federal level in Belgium currently has a monster coalition consisting of the three 'traditional' parties + the Greens, x2 for each of the main linguistic communities. What makes this extra unstable is that the Flemish parties represent a minority of the electorate in Flanders, which is a big deal in the context of Belgian politics. Vlaams Belang is set to crush it during the next federal and regional elections, and N-VA is blowing smoke about whether or not they would consider entering into a coalition with them, at least in the Flemish parliament where they'll probably have an absolute majority together. It's very unlikely that they'll do it, since it would burn them in the eyes of the other democratic parties, and their own party might implode over it, but they will 100% use it as a threat to extract concessions from the 'traditional' parties that they will probably end up in a coalition with instead. FreudianSlippers posted:In Denmark even the Social Democrats, generally the most boring moderate beige champagne socialists in most other countries, are virulent mega racists so the Danish far-right is genuinely bonkers because even the mega racism is too lefty hippy dippy for them. Our social democrats, Vooruit (Forwards), are still caught somewhere in between their traditional white working class electorate, and the new coalition of upper middle class progressives and ethnic minorities. Their previous chairman, Conner Rousseau, was fairly young and popular, but then he was caught saying a bunch of dumb poo poo about Roma and (literal) punks. Their new chairwoman has the advantage of being an attractive young woman, but she seems to lack that aggression/drive that the truly successful politicians have, and it's starting to show in the polls. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 22:29 on Apr 5, 2024 |
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Apr 5, 2024 22:22
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Phlegmish posted:This all seems very familiar. The federal level in Belgium currently has a monster coalition consisting of the three 'traditional' parties + the Greens, x2 for each of the main linguistic communities. What makes this extra unstable is that the Flemish parties represent a minority of the electorate in Flanders, which is a big deal in the context of Belgian politics. It's only a big deal to the N-VA. They were perfectly fine being part of a federal government with Walloon minority between 2014 and 2019. The noise they are making about the federal government now representing a minority among Flemings is super-hypocritical. For those not dialed in to Belgian politics: the N-VA are basically Flanders' Republicans without the religious/guns zealotry and with an added layer of Flemish seperatism. Not that a split of Belgium is ever going to be a realistic proposition. There has never been a popular majority for it in Flanders, and no Flemish nationalist has ever been able to offer a workable solution for Brussels or the loss of EU membership. Strangely (not strangely, again, think of the Republicans), no Flemish nationalist politician has ever been called out on this in the media.
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Apr 6, 2024 06:03
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Pope Hilarius II posted:no Flemish nationalist has ever been able to offer a workable solution for ... the loss of EU membership.
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Apr 6, 2024 06:29
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Pope Hilarius II posted:It's only a big deal to the N-VA. They were perfectly fine being part of a federal government with Walloon minority between 2014 and 2019. The noise they are making about the federal government now representing a minority among Flemings is super-hypocritical. Nitpick, but the francophone parties represent all of francophone Belgium, not just Wallonia. I have no particular love for the N-VA, but I honestly don't think it's that hypocritical from their perspective. Their ideology is Flemish nationalism, there's no real reason for them to feel obligated to ensure that the federal government represents the majority of francophones. The francophone Parti Socialiste did have a problem with 2014, which I understand. The reality of our divided political landscape is that you will always get more or less credible accusations of domination by the other side as soon as it skews too hard in the direction of either of the linguistic communities. I'm interested to see if we'll be getting Vivaldi II, if it will even be mathematically possible without including literally every single significant francophone party as well as potentially the PVDA (the only properly 'Belgian' party with representation in parliament), and what the knock-on effects would be. And then in October there are the municipal elections, without compulsory voting for the first time ever. It'll be an interesting year for us polsci freaks who love colored graphs and maps. e: oh and I guess there's also the more obscure US presidential election as well as the UK general election Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 12:23 on Apr 6, 2024 |
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Apr 6, 2024 12:20
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Phlegmish posted:I saw an interesting article on the Standaard site today. I apologize in advance for this being extremely obscure to most of you as it relates specifically to Flemish politics, but I thought it might be interesting to share as it relates to the discussion we were having earlier about ideology and gender. Basically, they asked people which party they theoretically could see themselves voting for: The Economist piece on this already posted is good, the FT had a big article on it recently too thats also worth finding. The TLDR I've seen between those and a few other pieces is that young working class men in particularly are being left behind in multiple ways in much of the West. Economically they've been screwed by neo-liberalism and the decline in good working class jobs like unionised labour, and by housing markets inflating completely out of reach for them. They can see their life prospects are now far worse than their fathers or grandfathers. Young women in general don't have as common similar female family examples to look back on and compare themselves to - a lot of their mothers and grandmothers would have been stay at home parents, or worked part time jobs etc. So even if the young women are in a precarious economic situation today they feel less of a failure in comparison. Then culturally young working class men have also been largely abandoned by a lot of left-wing parties more focused on social justice issues. Lecturing an unemployed, high school dropout, white male in his early 20s who grew up in a run down working class area about his white male privilege etc. Young women at least tend to have these parties focusing on feminism, women's rights, abortion rights etc, so feel more represented/thought of. The far-right is unfortunately recruiting very successfully from the resulting despair and anger in young men. The young men are part of a society thats not working for them, so they're voting for someone who's promising to radically change it.
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Apr 6, 2024 12:40
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Blut posted:The far-right is unfortunately recruiting very successfully from the resulting despair and anger in young men. The young men are part of a society thats not working for them, so they're voting for someone who's promising to radically change it. And I get the impression that the far-left (at least in Denmark) has moderated its tone, ostensibly in order to be taken more seriously, which has had little or no impact on their popularity while making them less attractive to the "angry young men" because without that intensity in the messaging it doesn't reflect how they feel.
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Apr 6, 2024 13:12
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Blut posted:The far-right is unfortunately recruiting very successfully from the resulting despair and anger in young men. The young men are part of a society thats not working for them, so they're voting for someone who's promising to radically change it.
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Apr 6, 2024 13:37
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Guavanaut posted:Can't believe that voting for the Angry Incel Totally Repellent To All Women Party hasn't improved my standing among the women. I mean its easy to meme on the young men as just being stupid angry incels but in Belgium above its 56.3% of Gen Z males voting quite/far-right. Thats not just a tiny extremist minority, its the majority. When that % of a demographic is disaffected its going to have a huge negative impact on society.
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Apr 6, 2024 14:40
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It’s like the 30s everyone’s voting extremist because nobody can really credibly claim the system isn’t broken Unlike the 30s when it was broken for everybody though it’s today just broken for those under 40
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Apr 6, 2024 14:45
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Blut posted:I mean its easy to meme on the young men as just being stupid angry incels but in Belgium above its 56.3% of Gen Z males voting quite/far-right. Thats not just a tiny extremist minority, its the majority. When that % of a demographic is disaffected its going to have a huge negative impact on society.
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Apr 6, 2024 14:51
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Also like, you can't actually compromise on the things they're supposedly angry about. You can't feed women into the grinder a little bit to tactically win incel votes.
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Apr 6, 2024 15:09
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If the far right are the ones who are telling them they are right to be angry while everybody else pretends things are going great, then they are going to be angry about the things that the far right tells them to be angry about.
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Apr 6, 2024 15:21
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Blut posted:The Economist piece on this already posted is good, the FT had a big article on it recently too thats also worth finding. The TLDR I've seen between those and a few other pieces is that young working class men in particularly are being left behind in multiple ways in much of the West. I think it's a combination of reasons, these deep-rooted feelings of alienation that you mention, but also just people being shitheads and egging each other on, a phenomenon exacerbated by social media - obviously these are not mutually exclusive. I don't think you should be absolved from responsibility for the choices you make, no matter how young you are, but I do agree that it's worth examining the structural factors behind the rise of the far right, similar to how Islamic fundamentalism was (and is) attractive to quite a few disaffected young Muslim men during the 2010s. Most people almost exclusively move in like-minded circles, sociologically speaking, so it can be difficult for goons with (presumably) our backgrounds to realize just how visceral these sentiments can be. Just a few weeks ago, after a lecture at the local cultural center down the street from where I live, I grabbed a drink with this middle-aged teacher lady and a few other acquaintances that I vaguely knew from similar events. Before we'd finished our first drink, this woman started going on a racist rant, just straight up talking about how 'the foreigners' are parasites stealing benefits. At one point, she mentioned how she wanted to shoot all black people. Again, this was in a tone of hyperbolic exasperation, but it was still something she literally said. It was so bad that even though I'm your typical mild-mannered goon, and not a particularly left-wing one, I had to tell her to stop, this is not cool. I guess she had assumed I would agree with her? It got a little awkward after that. The kicker, she told me she didn't even vote Vlaams Belang. If true, I can only imagine what the average Vlaams Belang voter might be like. Blut posted:I mean its easy to meme on the young men as just being stupid angry incels but in Belgium above its 56.3% of Gen Z males voting quite/far-right. Thats not just a tiny extremist minority, its the majority. When that % of a demographic is disaffected its going to have a huge negative impact on society. I think the caveats with that statement are - That percentage specifically applies to Flanders, not Belgium as a whole. It also only shows who they would potentially vote for, which is why for all parties it adds up to more than 100%. - Even though technically both N-VA and VB are right-wing nationalist parties, they are very different in terms of the people they appeal to, which is why it's possible for both of them to be so successful at the same time. The N-VA is interesting from I guess a political science standpoint, because of their anti-populist brand of populism. Their whole thing is presenting themselves as the Serious Party for Serious People, willing to make the tough decisions, unlike either the woke left or the extremist Vlaams Belang clowns. Unlike Vlaams Belang they have also never been excluded from coalitions, and in fact they've dominated the Flemish government for well over a decade now. That means they're essentially a regime party themselves at this point, and it is difficult to frame voting for them as revolutionary or subversive. Hence why they're not particularly popular with young people compared to the general population. Other than that, yeah, the VB percentage at least is shockingly high, especially taking cohort demographics into consideration.
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Apr 6, 2024 15:25
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:It’s like the 30s everyone’s voting extremist because nobody can really credibly claim the system isn’t broken Also Communism's dead this time, so it's nothing but fascists as far as the eye can see.
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Apr 6, 2024 15:27
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We should simply fold "Belgium" back into the Netherlands and then give all of it back to Spain.
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Apr 6, 2024 15:42
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Careful, that's how you end up with Austrian Netherlands and that's just making things worse
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Apr 6, 2024 15:45
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steinrokkan posted:If the far right are the ones who are telling them they are right to be angry while everybody else pretends things are going great, then they are going to be angry about the things that the far right tells them to be angry about.
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Apr 6, 2024 16:26
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Guavanaut posted:Young women seem to have avoided the obvious trap. The aspect to focus on is (male) anger. Alternatives like the greens don't tend to validate or harness that, radical ideologies do.
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Apr 6, 2024 16:41
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Sounds like we need the Angry Greens, because if you can't get angry about the entire planet becoming uninhabitable or none of the rivers being safe to swim in, then what can you get angry about. "My ethnic group will only be a plurality rather than a majority in this region of the country in 50 years time if demographic trends continue" sounds pretty pale in comparison.
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Apr 6, 2024 16:53
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Guavanaut posted:Sounds like we need the Angry Greens, because if you can't get angry about the entire planet becoming uninhabitable or none of the rivers being safe to swim in, then what can you get angry about. Ehhhhhhh, that might encourage people to want to lower corporate profits, we can't do that.
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Apr 6, 2024 17:01
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That's just it, young women are angry, they're just not necessarily angry about the same things, and in some cases it directly conflicts with what young men are disproportionately angry about, which is one of the main causes of this unprecedented ideological divide. Anyway, tangentially related, since the South Korean legislative elections are in a few days, here are the results of the 2020 election:  I don't know much about the country's politics, except that it's a two-party system and the Democratic Party are supposed to be liberals, while United Future are conservative. What is interesting to me that you would expect big cities to mostly lean one specific way (likely liberal in this configuration), but no, Busan votes very differently from Seoul. Maybe someone familiar with South Korea could shed some light on that. Given that SK's been mentioned several times before in the context of the ongoing discussion, I assumed there would be large differences by gender. I couldn't find anything for 2020, but I do have some stats for the 2022 local elections (the People Power Party is the rebranded version of the United Future Party): https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1045654 quote:When the results of exit polls jointly carried out on June 1 by Korea’s three terrestrial broadcasters (KBS, MBC and SBS) are broken down by age, they show that 65.1% of men aged 18-29 voted for candidates in the conservative People Power Party (PPP). In contrast, 66.8% of women aged 18-29 supported candidates in the liberal Democratic Party.
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Apr 6, 2024 17:12
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Phlegmish posted:That's just it, young women are angry, they're just not necessarily angry about the same things, and in some cases it directly conflicts with what young men are disproportionately angry about, which is one of the main causes of this unprecedented ideological divide.
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Apr 6, 2024 17:21
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Phlegmish posted:That's just it, young women are angry, they're just not necessarily angry about the same things, and in some cases it directly conflicts with what young men are disproportionately angry about, which is one of the main causes of this unprecedented ideological divide.
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Apr 6, 2024 17:37
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steinrokkan posted:If the far right are the ones who are telling them they are right to be angry while everybody else pretends things are going great, then they are going to be angry about the things that the far right tells them to be angry about. That's what I was trying to say, thank you
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Apr 6, 2024 18:15
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Guavanaut posted:I think that's the weirdest thing, we spent decades, centuries even, telling young women that they should smile, be pretty, and stay silent about politics to make young men comfortable, and 5 minutes of not doing that young men are gravitating to rancid political positions that make women run a mile and then complaining that women won't talk to them. Yep, Gen Z guys are turning hard right because they can’t sexually harass women anymore. Not because of the apocalyptic housing market, the increasingly horrific employment market for people who are not in a high level STEM field, and (for the US / Canada only) also fentanyl and meth ravaging white America, and the absurd cost of higher education. Definitely it’s the improved women’s freedoms that they are fundamentally furious about, that their dads, older brothers, and uncles were not bothered by. Must’ve been one of those things that skips a generation.
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Apr 6, 2024 18:34
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Makes sense, because if they were voting for poo poo likequote:Consider last year’s election. Then the top choice for 18- to 29-year-old men was Confederation, a party that touts free-market economics and traditional social values. (“Against feminists. In defence of real women” is one of its slogans.)
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Apr 6, 2024 18:39
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I mean machismo is a erm known the world over for a reason. Men aren't smart and driving women back into private spaces by force is a way to recapture lost social standing, or rather get a comparative advantage while society as a whole suffers.
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Apr 6, 2024 18:47
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Saladman posted:Yep, Gen Z guys are turning hard right because they can’t sexually harass women anymore. Not because of the apocalyptic housing market, the increasingly horrific employment market for people who are not in a high level STEM field, and (for the US / Canada only) also fentanyl and meth ravaging white America, and the absurd cost of higher education. As I said, I think it's both. You know, these alienating structural factors that have been mentioned, but also things like being confronted with feminist takes on Twitter and getting really outraged as a result, because they lack the context to understand why those takes are being posted, or they simply disagree with that view of social reality. Most of us would lend some weight to the impact of the former while dismissing the latter as culture war nonsense, but to these people, the social media takes are just another alienating factor, another sign that society is heading in the wrong direction and that they're being left behind. It's one big package to them, and that does make it difficult to address their concerns.
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Apr 6, 2024 18:47
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Saladman posted:Yep, Gen Z guys are turning hard right because they can’t sexually harass women anymore. Not because of the apocalyptic housing market, the increasingly horrific employment market for people who are not in a high level STEM field, and (for the US / Canada only) also fentanyl and meth ravaging white America, and the absurd cost of higher education. They'll tell you about it themselves op, go look in young men's spaces which lean right, they're not talking about those things. Those things may have created the poor material conditions through which their hatred is born but their focus certainly isn't on anything like that. They're focusing their disillusioned anger on women, the gays and people of color. Also the opiate epidemic has been just as deadly for black Americans since the pandemic: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db457.htm Kagrenak fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Apr 6, 2024 |
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Apr 6, 2024 18:50
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Men don't understand the structural causes of their problems, which is why it's so terrible that socialists are dead because structural narratives were their whole thing. Unfortunately they are fascists' thing too - ones focused on how various *isms are conspiracies holding men back. In absence of any independent understanding, the focus of resentment becomes completely divorced from its causes.
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Apr 6, 2024 18:53
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Phlegmish posted:As I said, I think it's both. You know, these alienating structural factors that have been mentioned, but also things like being confronted with feminist takes on Twitter and getting really outraged as a result, because they lack the context to understand why those takes are being posted, or they simply disagree with that view of social reality. Most of us would lend some weight to the impact of the former while dismissing the latter as culture war nonsense, but to these people, the social media takes are just another alienating factor, another sign that society is heading in the wrong direction and that they're being left behind. It's one big package to them, and that does make it difficult to address their concerns. I agree with your take, just not the people simplifying it to "lol incels lol." I don’t think normal people use Twitter - or at least I’ve never met anyone who admitted to using it, FB is completely shut down for anyone under 50, and IG is pretty strictly apolitical unless you actively seek stuff out. I’ve never used TikTok though and have no idea how much the media hype about it is "video game and rock and roll panic" and how much it is actually real brainwashing. I do know one person who went off the deep end from YouTube videos about 10 years ago, so it’s not like it’s new. That person was also notably not smart, and exceptionally lazy, so I don’t think it would have turned out well for him under any circumstance.
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Apr 6, 2024 19:06
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