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Dexo posted:To me process, and traits matter more when judging prospects than results. I personally really really don't like dudes with 4 to 5 years of starts who suddenly explode and dominate without a notable change in their process, but have better results that could be easily explained by a surrounding cast of great players. Or being able to out athlete folks in college. Definitely a legit criticism, but Penix did a lot of good things in Indiana too. He was the best quarterback they've had for a long time, went 10-2 as a starter with solid TD/INT splits, and was looked at as a top 5 college QB at many points despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in all of college football. He's always been at least a good player. Not only that, but the year before Penix arrived Washington went 4 - 8, if you skip the covid year they went 8 - 5 the year before that. He's not the only reason for that improvement of course but he's a big one. His age is definitely an issue for me, a man playing against boys in some respects these last couple season, but he was injured so often and missed so much time early. Really all of these issues could be leveled just as easily against Daniels, maybe even more easily, who is only six months younger and has essentially the exact same story of blowing up after transferring. Despite all that, I still like them both. quote:Once again if I'm wrong I'm wrong, I do this poo poo as a hobby for funsies. Well why don't you leave it to the pros like myself then?? lmao nah exact same and I also have plenty of misses in my history, I have a much better track record with defenders and WRs/RBs than QBs. I missed on Josh Allen and Justin Herbert being good. Perhaps more painfully in the other direction, I was wrong about Dwayne Haskins and Sam Darnold. But I've had some hits too, which I won't name here because I am a humble man. At the end of the day, NFL teams are full of people paid to do this, who have been doing it their whole professional lives, and who have access to inside information and the privilege of actually being able to meet and talk to these prospects. If they can't regularly get it right then what hope do we have? But I enjoy watching film and trying to extrapolate correct opinions from it. I don't even really disagree with you overall, I think as a prospect a second round grade is probably fair, given the multiple question marks. I just have this inkling that he might end up being a better pro than we think, and I like that he isn't as much of a projection as guys like Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy. I feel like you know what you're getting with him, unlike some other guys. But since Josh Allen I've learned not to totally write off prospects like that. Ornery and Hornery posted:lol at Bill’s language there “is Williams a better prospect than Goff coming out? Or other top qb prospects? It’s impossible to say!!!” Needed some justification for his silly thesis. Peak silly season atm, but this just seems desperate. Needed to put some words down so he could get paid I guess
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Apr 5, 2024 19:33
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Considering Trevor Lawrence was the most hyped prospect in a decade and is closer to Goff than Peyton I don't see the issue. The point is don't assume you're getting a HOFer at 1:1.
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Apr 5, 2024 19:37
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Man, this LB class sucks so much. It's pretty much Edgerrin Cooper then it falls off massively.
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Apr 5, 2024 19:39
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Henchman of Santa posted:The Falcons picking Penix to learn behind Kirk would make more sense if he was a junior and not a sixth year senior. Considering 2023 Jared Goff would be the best QB in Bears history, I'm gonna go with 'yes'
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Apr 5, 2024 19:46
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Why was the 2020 QB class so much better than 2021
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Apr 5, 2024 19:50
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a neat cape posted:Why was the 2020 QB class so much better than 2021 Overvaluing COVID year production (Wilson), overvaluing raw tools (Lance), overvaluing stats on a loaded team (Jones), drafted into terrible development situations (Lawrence and Fields).
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Apr 5, 2024 20:05
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I see a lot of criticism about Penix not being mobile but is there a reason he can't just be good at avoiding sacks? Looking at the NFL leaders in sack % over history and there's not exactly a lack of statues on the list.
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Apr 5, 2024 20:28
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IcePhoenix posted:I see a lot of criticism about Penix not being mobile but is there a reason he can't just be good at avoiding sacks? Looking at the NFL leaders in sack % over history and there's not exactly a lack of statues on the list. I don't personally know whether this is true but the same point came up on some podcast the other day. Their take was that his sack rate looks so good because he will throw the ball away at the first sign of trouble. Not because of great mobility.
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Apr 5, 2024 20:34
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Yeah. For example Mac Jones had a low low P2S rate of like 10% or some poo poo, it jumped to like around 20% in the league when he no longer had receivers who could instantly beat whatever scrub was across from them, and suddenly pressure and the pocket closed faster around him than ever before and he couldn't move or do anything to avoid it.
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Apr 5, 2024 20:40
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Docjowles posted:I don't personally know whether this is true but the same point came up on some podcast the other day. Their take was that his sack rate looks so good because he will throw the ball away at the first sign of trouble. Not because of great mobility. The Derek Carr special!
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Apr 5, 2024 20:58
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As a non-tape grinding fan it seems like it's just gotten harder and harder to actually protect QBs in the pocket over time, so I don't know how much looking at historical statues is helpful to evaluate modern ones. Like I'm sure actual Peyton Manning would still be able to make it work, but you have to be great at a more things then you used to to make up for it
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Apr 5, 2024 21:04
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IcePhoenix posted:I see a lot of criticism about Penix not being mobile but is there a reason he can't just be good at avoiding sacks? Looking at the NFL leaders in sack % over history and there's not exactly a lack of statues on the list. Because Penix freaking owns, OP. 1. He’s willing to throw the ball away rather than taking a sack. This is a hella good skill for a qb. 2. He also has that Brady/Manning magic of being able to feel pressure in the pocket, make a small step here or a small duck there, and gain just enough time to get a throw off. This is also a hella good skill for a qb. Look how much better Penix is than the others in this class with his elite low pressure-to-sack %: 6.5%!!! Dexo posted:
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Apr 5, 2024 21:39
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Because Penix freaking owns, OP. This is sorta what I was getting at with that question yeah.
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Apr 5, 2024 21:53
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IcePhoenix posted:I see a lot of criticism about Penix not being mobile but is there a reason he can't just be good at avoiding sacks? Looking at the NFL leaders in sack % over history and there's not exactly a lack of statues on the list. He IS good at avoiding sacks, I completely agree. He can maneuver in the pocket well and he can get set quickly after doing so. Look at his game against Texas (to be fair probably the best game in his entire career, but still Texas had one of the best D lines in the nation) where he would dodge an incoming Byron Young with a quick sidestep, step up slightly, and throw a seed down the field. Often without a full throwing motion, just a quick flick. He is also not scared to make a throw when he's about to be laid out. But what's notable is how rarely he puts the ball in harm's way in those situations and how often it turns into a completion. And if all that fails, he'll throw the ball away, which I am totally fine with and is a good skill to have given how sacks kill drives. Or he'll occasionally scramble. Or he'll take the sack, but he's also good about not fumbling, only 4 fumbles in his career. Calling him a statue is such bullshit. Yes he stands tall in the pocket, but he can move well with defenders around, he's got some quickness, he keeps his eyes up when maneuvering and is always looking to throw. A Sneaker Broker posted:Man, this LB class sucks so much. I haven't even looked at them to be honest, but yeah it seems like according to consensus it is a rough, rough year for off ball LBs. I wonder if any teams will try to convert a later round safety or something
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Apr 5, 2024 22:09
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Something to keep in mind though with Cousins and Penix. If your plan was to play Cousins for 2 years and then transition Penix to the full time starter it would only cost the falcons: 25 mill in dead money year 3 12 mil in dead money year 4 This also falls in the rookie contract bracket for a lot of their actual contributors so while any dead money is a negative, its not as if the Falcons have a lot of cap pressure on the horizon. If Penix was given the job and started for exactly 10 years before retiring he would be retiring at 36 years of age. The same age Cousins will be this year before opening day. So I don't think it's that much of a stretch to think the Falcons would consider it - if they feel he's the guy. If you can (again a lot of ifs with NFL players but still) - ensure 12 years of top flight production from the position at the cost of some cash and a draft pick, I don't think a team's going to care too much about whether that QB is tossing bombs, winning playoff games and has you in the mix for a ring at 31 as a 5 year starter rather than 27 as a 5 year starter.
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Apr 5, 2024 23:43
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It'll be funny when the Raiders grab Penix and his performance ceiling is just Derek Carr
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Apr 6, 2024 00:09
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A Sneaker Broker posted:Man, this LB class sucks so much. Payton Wilson is the consensus #1, right? He's 37 and has a some serious injury history, but he's pretty rare from a production standpoint. I personally don't find his film super compelling, but my reaction to almost LB film is "blechhh". His production numbers are actually off the charts though, and from just a production and athleticism perspective he's a first round prospect.
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Apr 6, 2024 00:54
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The337th posted:It'll be funny when the Raiders grab Penix and his performance ceiling is just Derek Carr At least with Penix they won’t be paying north of $30 mil a year for that experience I guess
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Apr 6, 2024 01:08
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:Payton Wilson is the consensus #1, right? He's 37 and has a some serious injury history, but he's pretty rare from a production standpoint. I personally don't find his film super compelling, but my reaction to almost LB film is "blechhh". His production numbers are actually off the charts though, and from just a production and athleticism perspective he's a first round prospect. 37 seems old for a rookie
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Apr 6, 2024 01:11
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IcePhoenix posted:37 seems old for a rookie The Brandon Weeden gambit
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Apr 6, 2024 01:14
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He's actually 24. But without looking it up I think that's a pretty accurate estimate.
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Apr 6, 2024 01:19
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Docjowles posted:At least with Penix they won’t be paying north of $30 mil a year for that experience I guess By the time his rookie contract is up it'll be much more than that
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Apr 6, 2024 09:27
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What's the best football name in this draft class? Frankly it's a disappointing crop in that respect. We've got the Kool aid man but pretty unappealing outside of that, at least from what I've seen so far.
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Apr 7, 2024 01:34
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Play posted:What's the best football name in this draft class? Frankly it's a disappointing crop in that respect. We've got the Kool aid man but pretty unappealing outside of that, at least from what I've seen so far. ladd mcconkey, chop robinson, ruke orhorhoro are all in the top 100, some good names right there
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Apr 7, 2024 01:56
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Soul Glo posted:ladd mcconkey, chop robinson, ruke orhorhoro are all in the top 100, some good names right there Ooo I like Ruke Orhorhoro that is fantastic
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Apr 7, 2024 02:12
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Play posted:What's the best football name in this draft class? Frankly it's a disappointing crop in that respect. We've got the Kool aid man but pretty unappealing outside of that, at least from what I've seen so far. Jackson Powers-Johnson
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Apr 7, 2024 02:13
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Joe Alt is a pretty funny name. Prince Pines is another good one
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Apr 7, 2024 02:58
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Nobody drafted Bumper Pool last year so he's technically still eligible
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Apr 7, 2024 03:12
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Play posted:Ooo I like Ruke Orhorhoro that is fantastic The first time I heard his name I immediately heard Chris Berman in my head yelling “oh row row row your boat 65 yards for the scoop and score”
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Apr 7, 2024 03:36
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Ennis Rakestraw Jr is a strong contender for top name
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Apr 7, 2024 05:24
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Malik Washington tape is so weird. He spends 90% of the game catching crappy underneath routes and then there's one big boom play that makes his stats look amazing. He's such a bad route runner but he just consistently gets open. His after the catch ability is just lower head and ram and then inexplicably no one gang tackles him and he rips off 50 yards. I've never seen a boom or bust guy be this consistent in the boom department.
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Apr 7, 2024 05:55
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Doltos posted:Malik Washington tape is so weird. He spends 90% of the game catching crappy underneath routes and then there's one big boom play that makes his stats look amazing. He's such a bad route runner but he just consistently gets open. His after the catch ability is just lower head and ram and then inexplicably no one gang tackles him and he rips off 50 yards. I've never seen a boom or bust guy be this consistent in the boom department. He’s one of “My Guys” in this years Draft Class. A lot of talk within team circles about him because of his innate ability to get open. Very similar play style to a certain Sun God in Detroit.
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Apr 7, 2024 09:07
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Bismack Billabongo posted:Joe Alt is a pretty funny name. Prince Pines is another good one Joe Alt is just Joe Old in german maybe it's because his dad John Alt was a longtime NFL player that it doesn't seem weird to me at all?
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Apr 7, 2024 17:11
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Joe Alt implies the existence of Joe Normie
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Apr 7, 2024 17:13
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Bob Mike
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Apr 7, 2024 17:33
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Any physical draft guides you guys would recommend? My daughter loves having something physical for stuff like this. I’ll probably just get whatever at the grocery store but thought I would ask here in case there’s something really cool or a niche site that is worth supporting with a physical purchase.
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Apr 7, 2024 19:17
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A Sneaker Broker posted:He’s one of “My Guys” in this years Draft Class. A lot of talk within team circles about him because of his innate ability to get open. Very similar play style to a certain Sun God in Detroit. I forgot he was in the draft, one of the coolest receivers we ever had at northwestern. The 2021 catch where hd just trucked a Rutgers guy in the open field then ran another 40 yards, owned. R.D. Mangles fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Apr 7, 2024 |
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Apr 7, 2024 20:11
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Henchman of Santa posted:Joe Alt implies the existence of Joe Normie Well there is that Panthers beat writer named Joe Person that always cracks me up Hand Row posted:Any physical draft guides you guys would recommend? My daughter loves having something physical for stuff like this. I’ll probably just get whatever at the grocery store but thought I would ask here in case there’s something really cool or a niche site that is worth supporting with a physical purchase. I wonder how much it would cost to do a nice spiral bound print of The Beast at Office Max or something Docjowles fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Apr 7, 2024 |
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Apr 7, 2024 21:49
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https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1777071577214980293 The Chiefs could do with a run stuffing DT alongside Chris Jones
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Apr 7, 2024 21:58
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Kevino07 posted:https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1777071577214980293 3rd or 4th round here we go
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Apr 7, 2024 22:01
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