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Failed by the Patriots, poverty organization
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Apr 12, 2024 02:52
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Ches Neckbeard posted:Failed by the Patriots, poverty organization
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Apr 12, 2024 02:54
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Stats I'd argue that do tend to matter IMO are sacks and INTs. If a guy isn't getting sacks or INTs in college they aren't all the sudden going to start getting them in the NFL.
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Apr 12, 2024 03:19
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Kalli posted:Mac Jones last season in college: 77.4% completion %, 4500 yards, 41 TD's, 4 Ints It's why I tend to use PFF's process metrics for stuff like that. like Mac Jones ADOT was a pathetic like 8.8 his last year.(Bo Nix's is 6.8, please lmao do not draft Bo Nix.) He never pushed the ball deep in college unless his receivers were wide rear end open, which is why his completion percentage was so loving high. He never took risks, and never tried to push the ball deep when it was somewhat in doubt. Which is something you have to be able to do in the NFL, where you aren't going to get endless layups because your roster is so much better than everyone else's, unless well you end up on a team where you have an incredibly stacked roster around you. But that's very unlikely for teams who would be picking a QB in the first round. It's why his rookie year he looked pretty decent, because everything around him was pristine and he could pitch and catch. The moment his line got a bit worse, and his receivers got worse he loving tanked and looked unplayable because he couldn't do anything once the simple stuff was taken off the table. I think I prefer a QB in college who like *up to a point obviously* is willing to take the big throws and willing to fail on deeper tighter window throws, as long as they have some amount of success, it shows that they at least will be willing to make NFL type throws.
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Apr 12, 2024 03:28
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Stats are just an invitation to take a look at a player imo. Not an indication of their pro potential. Just "jesus this guy outperformed his peers, let's see why" not "this guy outperformed his peers on the stat sheet, let's draft him"
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Apr 12, 2024 03:29
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wandler20 posted:Stats I'd argue that do tend to matter IMO are sacks and INTs. If a guy isn't getting sacks or INTs in college they aren't all the sudden going to start getting them in the NFL. Holy poo poo definitely not Ints lmao, if you are a great CB in college chances are you are not getting thrown at unless they absolutely have to throw at you. Also lmao at Sacks, Pressures yes, I don't care too much about Sacks(it's a tape thing if like you are missing a bunch of sacks on tape that might be a problem) Sacks can be avoided by QB's, if you force a QB to dirt a ball or make a bad pass or run into someone else's sack, you did your job spectacularly as a Edge/DL. But you aren't going to get credited with a sack. Joey Porter Jr had one interception in college. I think Jalen Ramsey had 0 or maybe 1 please god do not judge CB's based off college interceptions. Dexo fucked around with this message at 03:36 on Apr 12, 2024 |
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Apr 12, 2024 03:32
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wandler20 posted:Stats I'd argue that do tend to matter IMO are sacks and INTs. If a guy isn't getting sacks or INTs in college they aren't all the sudden going to start getting them in the NFL. I don't know that I agree with this
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Apr 12, 2024 03:35
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College stats absolutely matter when it's earth-shattering records in the SEC. Like what Jaylen did this year. 1,134 rushing yards in one season! Good stats don't guarantee a great pro QB and bad stats don't guarantee a bad pro QB, but stats certainly help paint a picture of a prospect.
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Apr 12, 2024 03:42
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Ornery and Hornery posted:College stats absolutely matter when it's earth-shattering records in the SEC. Like what Jaylen did this year. 1,134 rushing yards in one season! They really really don't. All that tells you is that Jaylen can run and scramble, in an offense with a badass offensive line, and two first round receivers forcing teams to put less players in the box. Everyone knows Jaylen is an athletic dude who's really fast. It doesn't tell you anything about how effective it's going to be when he's no longer like 1-2 years older than dude's he's playing, and facing better defensive schemes, and doesn't have a roster advantage. edit: not meant to be an attack on Jayden specifically, but I would say the same thing about Running backs with gaudy rushing totals or QB's who put up gaudy passing numbers, or WR's who do the same. Like the number is fun, and great for them, but it shouldn't factor into the evaluation on the player. If the player is good, the evaluation will show it if you disregard the stats. Dexo fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Apr 12, 2024 |
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Apr 12, 2024 03:46
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What's really nice these days, if anyone wants to become a world famous internet football scout like myself, is that you can just search youtube for something like "[player name] every snap/pass/rush/coverage/whatever" and often you'll be able to find a full game or multiple games with every relevant snap included. Makes it a lot easier to actually get a feel for a guy, see how they move, see both good plays and bad ones, and to me it's fun. To a point at least.
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Apr 12, 2024 03:57
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Dexo posted:Joey Porter Jr had one interception in college. I think Jalen Ramsey had 0 or maybe 1 Conversely (and this was a safety not a CB), Gerod Holliman set the NCAA record for interceptions in a season, got drafted in the 7th round and never played in the NFL. Aidan Hutchinson has twice as many interceptions as Sauce Gardner. They're really random!
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Apr 12, 2024 03:59
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A Sneaker Broker posted:Josh Allen and Jordan Love are Mountain West Prodigal Sons. Love looked way better than Allen in college
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Apr 12, 2024 04:14
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Dexo posted:Holy poo poo definitely not Ints lmao, if you are a great CB in college chances are you are not getting thrown at unless they absolutely have to throw at you. holy poo poo lol lmao, get real, it's my opinion, no need to be a dick about it. If you can't beat a college tackle for a sack how are you beating an NFL tackle? Getting a pressure is fine, but you're paid for sacks. INTs I can see the argument against it but I want a guy who will actually pick the ball off when it comes his way. A quick search shows Ramsey had 3. Sauce had 9. Surtain 4. Jaire 7. Xavien 10. Obviously this isn't the only way to judge but in a stats sense, as we're discussing, they make sense to me.
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Apr 12, 2024 04:29
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I don't think sacks matter that much. Pressures are nice but I think with edges you should only look at athleticism since I've never seen an undersized, slow guy ever do well in the NFL, I learned my lesson from Jarvis Jones
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Apr 12, 2024 04:44
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wandler20 posted:
Rashan Gary didn't have much statistical production in college, but as it turned out, it was because he was being triple teamed on a majority of plays.
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Apr 12, 2024 04:49
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Doltos posted:I don't think sacks matter that much. Pressures are nice but I think with edges you should only look at athleticism since I've never seen an undersized, slow guy ever do well in the NFL, I learned my lesson from Jarvis Jones Yeah, it's all kind of a crapshoot. Vernon Gholston had production and athleticism and welp.
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Apr 12, 2024 05:09
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2 more goddamn weeks
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Apr 12, 2024 05:11
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My apologies, didn't mean to be a dick, but I just like fundamentally disagree. Context is far more important I don't remember all of those situations, But IIRC from when I was looking at Sauce his draft year, that Cinci back seven was really really good. Which meant you had to throw at someone. Everybody got some picks on that team. IIRC the Safety and second corner were also nfl prospects with ball decent ball production. Ball production comes and goes and is largely a function of the players around you, forcing QB's to throw to you, vs picking on the lesser of the two corners. For example, Jaylon Johnson was one of the best cover corners in the league the past few years, he just didn't get ball production until the Bears got a non lovely second corner(Tyrique Stevenson), and even a little pass rush. Sacks are important, you love sacks, but you don't judge prospects by sacks and production. Sacks can be gotten because you are on a line with another killer who gives you easy assignments(shout out to Mark Anderson). Sacks can be gotten because you play trash opponents. Where I always come to is Evaluation of the player will show you why they are getting that production, or why they aren't.
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Apr 12, 2024 05:14
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Dexo posted:They really really don't. All that tells you is that Jaylen can run and scramble, in an offense with a badass offensive line, and two first round receivers forcing teams to put less players in the box. You are wildly undervaluing the underlying prospect value that comes from the production of 1,300 rushing yards by a quarterback in the SEC. Your use of the phrase “can run and scramble” makes it seem like he’s a generic qb with a little bit of backyard football to his game. Jayden has S-Tier game breaking speed and mobility for a quarterback prospect. His detractors act like the fact that he’s not *as* electric as Lamar Jackson, the possible GOAT of qb mobility, somehow means that his scrambling is pedestrian. I don’t know how you could watch his tape, see how he gets those rushing yards, then conclude that they come because of his surrounding talent. He consistently turned what would be ~4-10 yard scrambles for generic mobile qbs into 20+, 30+, and 40+ yard runs.
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Apr 12, 2024 05:32
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Dexo posted:My apologies, didn't mean to be a dick, but I just like fundamentally disagree. Context is far more important I don't necessarily disagree with you and I get what you're saying. My thought was from a purely stat perspective you'd like to see some production from those particular stats. Rushing/passing/receiving are harder to judge just looking at the numbers. But really, don't listen to my draft takes, they're purely based off vibes.
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Apr 12, 2024 05:37
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I absolutely agree that stats don’t tell the whole picture for a prospect but the idea that any ‘ole Joe Schmo qb prospect could stumble into 1300 rushing yards in the SEC is patently absurd. There are clearly some nfl qualities in the underlying prospect to generate such stats.
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Apr 12, 2024 05:37
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Ornery and Hornery posted:You are wildly undervaluing the underlying prospect value that comes from the production of 1,300 rushing yards by a quarterback in the SEC. No, I just don't care about the yardage. The yardage is a result of the traits and process and yes factors outside of himself. I probably let my own personal opinion of Jayden into that post too much, but that above statement is what I meant that post to convey. Like Evaluating Jayden Daniels you would find out that yes he is very very fast by even just a couple of explosive rushes. Or his athletic testing. Like people knew Justin Fields was an amazingly fast explosive and great athlete despite him only having like ~500 rushing yards in college. Dexo fucked around with this message at 05:54 on Apr 12, 2024 |
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Apr 12, 2024 05:44
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Ornery and Hornery posted:You are wildly undervaluing the underlying prospect value that comes from the production of 1,300 rushing yards by a quarterback in the SEC. I agree with you and Dexo at the same time. I think obviously Daniels' gaudy stats show how amazing his speed is. I just think that if he had half the yards I'd still think the same way about him.
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Apr 12, 2024 05:57
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Doltos posted:I agree with you and Dexo at the same time. I think obviously Daniels' gaudy stats show how amazing his speed is. I just think that if he had half the yards I'd still think the same way about him. This is it, like if you put on Jayden Daniels tape, and didn't tell someone how many yards he got over a season, the first thing you would probably notice from him is just how goddamn fast he is in the open field. You could watch his tape without knowing a single stat about him and say he was elite there. The stats are largely immaterial to the evaluation.
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Apr 12, 2024 06:10
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I think if he had half the yards, we'd like him more as a prospect considering how often he just decided to book it without keeping his eyes downfield. Half those yards with that cast probably means he's making better decisions.
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Apr 12, 2024 06:18
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I absolutely agree that stats don’t tell the whole picture for a prospect but the idea that any ‘ole Joe Schmo qb prospect could stumble into 1300 rushing yards in the SEC is patently absurd. There are clearly some nfl qualities in the underlying prospect to generate such stats. I think youre wildly overvaluing SEC defenses, especially SEC West defenses
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Apr 12, 2024 06:27
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Alaois posted:I think youre wildly overvaluing SEC defenses, especially SEC West defenses Wasn't the SEC the worst it has been in years this season?
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Apr 12, 2024 06:30
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Sataere posted:Wasn't the SEC the worst it has been in years this season? dont think too much about it
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Apr 12, 2024 06:52
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pac12 was the best we've ever seen them. can't wait for next year.
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Apr 12, 2024 06:52
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Borsche69 posted:pac12 was the best we've ever seen them. can't wait for next year. UCLA got proooooooblems
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Apr 12, 2024 06:59
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Ornery and Hornery posted:You are wildly undervaluing the underlying prospect value that comes from the production of 1,300 rushing yards by a quarterback in the SEC. Jayden Daniels also got routinely annihilated by linebackers and that's way mor meaningful than rushing yards what makes Lamar so good is that he's really good at not getting popped
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Apr 12, 2024 07:00
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Borsche69 posted:pac12 was the best we've ever seen them. can't wait for next year. I've got feelings that the Cougars & Beavers will both be top 2 this year!
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Apr 12, 2024 08:56
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I usually ignore counting stats but then a Karl Brooks comes out of nowhere to make a fool out of me by being non athletic but just freaking produce.
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Apr 12, 2024 11:12
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Sataere posted:Josh Allen should be treated as an anomaly. Nobody who watched him in college saw that coming. His completion percentage was awful, it shouldn't be that bad in college. It's incredible he was able to get it together even if it took three years
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Apr 12, 2024 13:19
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Jayden Daniels also got routinely annihilated by linebackers and that's way mor meaningful than rushing yards Jayden also routinely dodged multiple defenders on his way to big gains. He’s way more fluid and dynamic of a runner than just straight line speed.
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Apr 12, 2024 13:49
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I think where stats are valuable, it's to use as a counter to someone testing poorly and not just relying only on the eye test. Iirc, Dalvin Cook tested really bad but you could just look at game tape to see his real speed, and I'm sure he had numbers too. I suppose my argument falls apart and is solely an eye test one but it's nice to have some concrete numbers to back that up.
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Apr 12, 2024 13:58
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Nodoze posted:His completion percentage was awful, it shouldn't be that bad in college. It's incredible he was able to get it together even if it took three years I think with Allen it was the combination of the person, the intangibles but also he really was raw. To borrow some excerpts from Wikipedia ESPN journalist Mark Schlabach posted:At the time, Josh was about 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds. He hadn't attended the elite quarterback camps and wasn't a widely known prospect. His high school team didn't participate in many 7-on-7 camps because Josh and many of his teammates were busy playing baseball and other sports. He was the leading scorer on his basketball team and also pitched on the baseball team, reaching 90 mph with his fastball. Yahoo Sports writer Jeff Eisenberg posted:At a time when many scholarship-hungry families encourage their kids to specialize in one sport or to transfer to the school that will provide the most exposure, the Allens resisted both trends. They spurned overtures from more prominent Central Valley programs after Allen's breakout junior season and kept him at Firebaugh, living by the family mantra that "you bloom where you're planted.
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Apr 12, 2024 14:16
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Jayden Daniels also got routinely annihilated by linebackers and that's way mor meaningful than rushing yards Who knows, Brian Kelly is such an rear end in a top hat he probably told Daniels to run for extra yards. NFL coaches will protect their investment and tell him to knock that poo poo off. I'm completely speculating here, I just really dislike Kelly.
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Apr 12, 2024 14:31
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Kalli posted:Mac Jones last season in college: 77.4% completion %, 4500 yards, 41 TD's, 4 Ints SMH to use Mac when the Pats still have one of the greatest college QBs of all time on the roster, Bailey Zappe % 69.1 (nice) yards 5967 TDs 62 ints 11 rating 168.7
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Apr 12, 2024 15:03
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lol, I had no idea Josh Allen was from the Central Valley. He makes so much more sense to me now.
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