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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Who will ensure companies continue to profit from increased production after the war is over? Too risky.

And they say capitalist companies don't do long term planning.

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Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

I've been published in the amount of journals, and given the conference papers, per year I'm supposed to, as well as holding my committee positions and working on a chapter for a book.

It's just that nobody is interested in how this relates to my overarching perspective, the theory that underpins it. Ever since ML thought was driven from the academy, even before the end of history, it’s considered at best too eccentric and at worst too subversive for current events to be interpreted through its lens. This retreat from ML theory is obvious within my field, we've discussed it over and over again here. How much easier would understanding events in Ukraine be from that perspective? Doesn't matter, there's no debate around these concepts, any discussion of the matter has become nearly non-existent.

Liberal ideals have triumphed, there’s an overt reluctance to engage with certain schools of thought. Since 1991, they've all been quietly excised from academic discourse. If somebody looked a little too closely at some of these German books lying around my office, or I got carried away in a discussion about 1848, at best I'm considered a crank, at worst I have some sort of disciplinary hearing. You know how these things are in Canada. You're not supposed to say anything that goes against the story of the "captive nations". There's a "black book" that attributes millions of deaths these beliefs. No good can come from attempting to overtly bring ML into contemporary discussions.

So, I churn out the stuff I'm supposed to, which I generally enjoy, not that it matters, since the political economy is what it is, and neither the will nor material means exist to actually practice the art and science of gunnery in this country. I keep my head down, keep the tenants of ML to myself, and yeah I find it relaxing to post here, so that I can finally express the theory that ties it all together, which my disjointed notes and articles don't and would never be allowed to. The Canadian government is just not ready for it to be all laid bare, and for current events to be interpreted through Maria Theresa and Leopold Joseph von Daun.

:discourse:

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Orange Devil posted:

And they say capitalist companies don't do long term planning.

been saying this

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Ardennes posted:

It sounds like it is 10 to 1 at best; more than just not wanting to have to deal with ambushes and attacks on supply lines, I really think the Russians just want to reduce any potential guerilla force up front. It is just a lot easier to deal with them up front now when the Ukrainian military can barely fight back than try hunting them down all across Ukraine in the future.

Especially lol since it was iirc absolutely the original plan to train up stay-behind Gladio after Ukraine immediately collapsed and got rolled over by Russia, but now even those who would form those are getting sent to the meat grinder at the front after everyone got sick of them hiding behind actual soldiers and civilians to massacre minorities.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

I've been published in the amount of journals, and given the conference papers, per year I'm supposed to, as well as holding my committee positions and working on a chapter for a book.

It's just that nobody is interested in how this relates to my overarching perspective, the theory that underpins it. Ever since ML thought was driven from the academy, even before the end of history, it’s considered at best too eccentric and at worst too subversive for current events to be interpreted through its lens. This retreat from ML theory is obvious within my field, we've discussed it over and over again here. How much easier would understanding events in Ukraine be from that perspective? Doesn't matter, there's no debate around these concepts, any discussion of the matter has become nearly non-existent.

Liberal ideals have triumphed, there’s an overt reluctance to engage with certain schools of thought. Since 1991, they've all been quietly excised from academic discourse. If somebody looked a little too closely at some of these German books lying around my office, or I got carried away in a discussion about 1848, at best I'm considered a crank, at worst I have some sort of disciplinary hearing. You know how these things are in Canada. You're not supposed to say anything that goes against the story of the "captive nations". There's a "black book" that attributes millions of deaths these beliefs. No good can come from attempting to overtly bring ML into contemporary discussions.

So, I churn out the stuff I'm supposed to, which I generally enjoy, not that it matters, since the political economy is what it is, and neither the will nor material means exist to actually practice the art and science of gunnery in this country. I keep my head down, keep the tenants of ML to myself, and yeah I find it relaxing to post here, so that I can finally express the theory that ties it all together, which my disjointed notes and articles don't and would never be allowed to. The Canadian government is just not ready for it to be all laid bare, and for current events to be interpreted through Maria Theresa and Leopold Joseph von Daun.

I really appreciate your posting here and it's legit half of what I look forward to when coming to this forum now. I'd never seen the degree of depth and breadth of history and military theory that you bring to the table, genuinely thank you.

But, I want you to consider this: Everything you're working on here is probably being equally compiled by hundreds of Chinese military theorists who are probably right now drawing the same kinds of conclusions with the exception they actually get to publish their work to a party that values materialist theory. Think about the amount of intellectual leverage this likely gives the PLA and what it means for the coming future of warfare. The gulf in understanding between the kind of dead end reasoning that the west churns out and what the Chinese state encourages is so massive I cannot imagine a future where the PLA doesn't totally outclass western militaries top to bottom in technology / doctrine / production outside of nuclear weapons, for whatever they're even worth. The Ukraine war has a mountain of lessons to teach but only a few states are even capable of learning anything from it.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

you can see that disparity playing out in ukriane and the Middle East right now.

antipattern
Nov 8, 2019

I gotta say the Shed Tank is one of my favorite things to come out of this clusterfuck

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

I appreciate it, and you're right, even the output in the Classics and Theology by Chinese universities is really impressive. Which is funny, right, they shouldn't be better at the understanding of "Western Civilization" than western countries, but our degrees have been gutted and theirs are getting really good. I guess it's that they're willing to educate and tenure someone in Homeric studies, and we keep cutting these programs, so who is going to have the better output? I would guess, as long and there's interest, that applies to all of the humanities.

Apparently the number of Chinese students learning undergraduate and graduate level German was 170 000 a year in 2015, and as that was double the amount in 2010. I'm assuming there are more Chinese academics who could go to the military archives in Vienna and do pathbreaking research than in any western country outside Germany? Given their university system and attitude towards funding, Chinese academics who are interested in Austria-Hungary could probably get more support and produce more work than we've seen cumulatively in Canada in a long time.

Anyway, obviously that applies here too. Chinese academics, civil servants and military officers undoubtedly read English journals more than anyone here reads the Chinese ones. Translation has been badly cut, privatized, outsourced, so that only top level stuff can get the official French translation in a timely manner, I have no idea how long the wait to get something like a journal article professionally translated from Chinese would be.

They did also add that additional rocket artillery battalion to their mechanized formations, so if their lesson learned was that UAVs provide opportunities to call down fire strikes on fleeting targets, they went from "identify the need" to "equipment is delivered, formation staffed, personnel trained" before we've even put out a decent amount of papers describing the problem.

If the Chinese government would like to reopen the Jesuit residence in court, and those giant libraries in Beijing, that would be fantastic.

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.

BearsBearsBears posted:

Everybody it talking about the barn protecting the tank. Isn't there a EW thing on top of the tank? I think the barn may be there to protect all the EW equipment rather than the tank itself.

There are at least two barn tanks roaming around, the one I saw had the EW mechanism on top of the shed. I imagine the metal might work as a kind of Faraday cage and hinder the efficacy so it would make sense to mount it on the outside. And if it's working it should stop the drones from getting near enough anyway

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
The future of tanks will be a giant plastic bubble mounted 30 meters off the surface of the tank body

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Someone better at political economy can reason this out but,

This German scholastic tradition, Wissenshaft, that transformed the humanities in the 19th century and laid the foundations for archeology and Egyptology (which is why you need German for a good masters program) is rightly held in high esteem. But it was a process with material causes, right? Germans aren't innately deep thinkers, or methodical researchers, there's no racial genius. I get the sense we've mystified it, even though we use the language of rationality, empiricism, blah blah blah. Observe:

the best selling The German Genius: Europe's Third Renaissance, the Second Scientific Revolution and the Twentieth Century

"From the end of the Baroque age and the death of Bach in 1750 to the rise of Hitler in 1933, Germany was transformed from a poor relation among western nations into a dominant intellectual and cultural force more influential than France, Britain, Italy, Holland, and the United States. In the early decades of the 20th century, German artists, writers, philosophers, scientists, and engineers were leading their freshly-unified country to new and undreamed of heights, and by 1933, they had won more Nobel prizes than anyone else and more than the British and Americans combined. But this genius was cut down in its prime with the rise and subsequent fall of Adolf Hitler and his fascist Third Reich-a legacy of evil that has overshadowed the nation’s contributions ever since.

Yet how did the Germans achieve their pre-eminence beginning in the mid-18th century? In this fascinating cultural history, Peter Watson goes back through time to explore the origins of the German genius, how it flourished and shaped our lives, and, most importantly, to reveal how it continues to shape our world. As he convincingly demonstarates, while we may hold other European cultures in higher esteem, it was German thinking-from Bach to Nietzsche to Freud-that actually shaped modern America and Britain in ways that still resonate today."

and the glowing review, James Buchan enjoys an encyclopedic account of Germany's 'idealism with efficiency'.

Alright, so obviously if we did see this through the lens of the things we claim to appreciate about it, research, thoroughness, etc etc. Chinese universities are doing the things that produced all of this western scholarship we love, western universities are not. I hesitate to say that everybody's takeaway seems to be that this was the product of innate European superiority which we would retain if we cut higher education to ribbons and turned it into a jobs training program, but...

Take a single discipline that saw a transformation through Wissenshaft:

"In the last half of the nineteenth century, the traditional undergraduate liberal arts colleges, in which Felton’s approach to Homer and Greek literature generally had flourished, were transformed by the rise in importance of the sciences and social sciences. This transformation probably originated in the ever-expanding industrialization of the age and its concomitant utilitarianism and scientism. It was catalysed from 1876 on by the founding and increasing importance of graduate schools, with specialized doctoral programmes modelled on and imbued with the scholarly values of German universities, including the importance of research rather than pedagogy as the chief goal of the university. (The first such doctoral programme was in Classics at the newly founded Johns Hopkins University (1876), with Basil L. Gildersleeve as Professor of Greek.) The organization of knowledge into autonomous disciplines, organized along professional lines, was complemented by a new system of ‘majors’ and elective courses aimed at producing specialists even at the undergraduate level.

In response to these developments, in the final quarter of the nineteenth century the ‘humanities’ came into being as a significant intellectual domain within the modern American college. These ‘humanities’ were no longer the traditional studia humanitatis, with their emphasis on the Greek and Latin languages and literatures. Rather, in the context of college curricula, the ‘humanities’ came to mean ‘the elevating, holistic study of literature, music, and art’.They were distinguished from studies in the sciences and social sciences by a categorical refusal of economic and social utility; instead, the humanities emphasized knowledge for the sake of knowledge and learning as a path to inward reflection and self-cultivation. By the turn of the century, the academic study of the humanities, especially of Classics and even more especially of Homer, Sophocles, and Plato now read in translation, was an important part of this process of self-cultivation, which came to be seen as an antidote for scientism and modernity.

The rise of the humanities within the academy was parallel to similar developments in American society generally. For example, ‘one of the great democratic movements of the nineteenth century’ was the development of the ‘parlor’ (living room) as a standard feature of the middle-class American home. The parlor was ‘a testament of the family’s refinement [and] proof that they understood how to be polite’; ‘its furnishings stood for repose, polish, economically useless knowledge, beauty, and decorative activity’ and almost always included ‘a book-case filled with well selected and well bound volumes’ reflecting the family’s ‘mental culture’. It is no accident that Thomas Bulfinch, in The Age of Fable: or, Stories of Gods and Heroes (1855), frequently reprinted as part 1 of Bulfinch’s Mythology and still in print, referred to his work as ‘not...a study but a relaxation from study’, ‘a Classical dictionary for the parlor . . . that will impart a knowledge of an important branch of education’ to ‘the reader of either sex’ who had not studied the classical languages. In effect, Bulfinch aimed to democratize mythology by opening up its mysteries to working-class and middle-class people of both sexes who did not attend secondary schools or colleges where Greek and Latin were studied. His effort to make classical mythology available to readers who would previously not have had access to it both parallels the development of the parlor as an architectural and social phenomenon, and anticipates the general education and great books courses of the twentieth century."

:thunk:

- probably originated in the ever-expanding industrialization
- increasing importance of graduate schools, with specialized doctoral programmes
- distinguished from studies in the sciences and social sciences by a categorical refusal of economic and social utility
- emphasized knowledge for the sake of knowledge and learning as a path to inward reflection and self-cultivation
- repose and economically useless knowledge
- relaxation

Does that sound like a list of things valued in any western country at the moment? Why would we keep producing this great scholastic tradition we're all so proud of if we've gotten rid of all the things that produced it? Just like the Ivy League started deemphasizing mastery of the violin in admissions, which they had seen as a symbol of refinement, sensitivity, intelligence, because too many Asians were learning the violin, it seems to me we've pretended to value a thing, but really we value its utility in believing in inherent superiority, which is obviously going to be a problem going forward.

Deindustrialized societies where all programs are going to turn into communications, marketing, and commerce, are not going to produce PhDs in Homeric studies, that so value the economically useless values contained therein that it permeates society, and people have a dedicated room (in a house they own) to relax and read nice books in. We're not about that life. So, obviously, China is better positioned to study and appreciate "western civilization" than western societies, unless we've romanticized it and believe this is racial, which I suggest we have.

All of that to say, "Let a hundred flowers bloom; let a hundred schools of thought contend" .

e:

"Since the beginning of the 21st century, the number of people learning German has been decreasing worldwide (see Auswärtiges Amt (ed.) 2015, p. 6). However, the situation is different in China. In 2000, 19,190 Chinese people were learning German (see Ständige Arbeitsgruppe DaF 2000, p. 19) and this number increased to 117,487 in 2015 (see Aus- wärtiges Amt (ed.) 2015, p. 10). This article focuses on learning German in schools, which has developed rapidly throughout this century, and in particular in the last decade. Until 2000, German courses were only offered at seven foreign language schools nationwide. Thanks to the initiative “Schools – Partners of the Future” (PASCH), 12,200 Chinese were learning German in 327 schools 15 years later (see Auswärtiges Amt (ed.) 2015, p. 10). Nowadays, German is the second most frequently learned European language in Chinese high schools after English (see ibid., p. 29). It is also highly likely that the number of German learners in China will continue to grow in the coming years, as German will become one of the subjects to be recognized by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China as of September 2018."

"Interest among young people can be primarily awakened through daily contact with German-speaking countries, especially if it is related to a favorable impression of Germany. The relationship between China and Germany in the field of economics, politics, science and culture etc. is becoming increasingly close. Under these circumstances, German technology and products become a “window” to Germany in China. Chinese not only think German are conscientious, steady, dutiful and punctual, which are partly stereotypes, but also appreciate the courage of the German nation to critically deal with its mistakes in history. This positive impression is largely attributed to the positive reports about Germany in Chinese media. From another point of view, the importance of the interest factor reflects a personality trait of the younger generation in today’s China. As Li (2016, p. 104) stated, they are curious, courageous independent and confident."

The Chinese seem to be more German than the Germans, and, not that anyone will credit it, or give them the Nobel Prizes, seem to have a better grasp of the "western scholastic tradition" than the west.

ee: how the gently caress does China only have 8 Nobel laureates?

DJJIB-DJDCT has issued a correction as of 13:39 on Apr 18, 2024

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
Tanks mounted with their own massive earth embankments that effortlessly absorb shell blasts.

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
Like a small, moving hill with a gun barrel poking out of it.

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019

Tankbuster posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYEBVGj51nk

Video showing how mariopolis is being rebuilt.

New public housing, emergency aid centres, replacing Soviet era infrastructure, free modern windows and radiators, new schools, the depths of the Russian genocide of Ukraine knows no bounds....

Leandros
Dec 14, 2008

Ardennes posted:

Btw, elements of the 3rd assault brigade (remember them) that escaped Avdiivka were suppose to be holding that area, and it looks like the barn tank is there to see if anyone is left in town essentially so they can be hit with air strikes. It is probably a t-90m under there which is heavily protected as well.

The political units are constantly blaming Syrskyi for their predicament, but in reality, it just seems they generally cut and run when put under heavy pressure.

I have no idea how much it's used, but wouldn't the APS also be blinded by the shed? Or are you just talking passive protection?

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

lol I just came across this gem:

The Alliance vs The Bear – Some Fundamentals of Why Russia Won’t Win. (Part 1)

On 11th July 2014 the Ukrainian 79th Airmobile Brigade was subjected to a 3 (and a bit) minute bombardment by (probably) Russian Army artillery rocket systems fired from inside Russia. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry admitted to 19 killed and 93 wounded in the attack, though other sources claimed up to 36 fatalities. No figures were released on the number of vehicles lost, but a survivor reported that a battalion of the 79th Airmobile Brigade had been almost entirely destroyed.

That’s a real demonstration of capability. The Russian Army’s Western Military District have two divisions of these things, that’s more than 20 launchers. I have no idea how many were used in this attack, but it probably wasn’t all of them. So should we be really concerned over Russia’s ability to destroy targets at reach? We’ve really underinvested in artillery through more than a decade of counter-insurgency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, followed by some really significant cuts. Are we now short on capability? If there was a ‘conventional’ conflict between NATO and Russia would we lose?

In this first part of the “Rant Trilogy” I aim to address this conventional threat to the land forces by peer state actors like Russia…

The rhetoric is that in a land centric campaign Russian forces will win. They have more guns that fire more variants of rounds further than ours and can be cued for anti-battery fires faster than ours. Is that true? On paper the Tornado-G has a range of 40km, GMLRS (of which the Royal Artillery has 42 – again on paper) have a range of 70km. You might ask questions about reliability, the cost of the rounds and training etc, but is Russia not facing these challenges too, if not more so given the size of their economy and their 800 000 soldiers? You could even say that ours are pin-point accurate and therefore not an area weapon, but they used to be and it wouldn’t take much effort (albeit significant pennies) to convert them back? I’ll come back to that…

Let’s assume that rhetoric is true. Are we considering this from a too land centric focus? Do we need to beat massed artillery with massed artillery? One frequently posed position is that we are not thinking ‘jointly’ enough. We shouldn’t be concerned about a lack of long range artillery because we have F35 (or will do, one day) and UAVs and they can bomb stuff. But with the proliferation of GBAD, is that a good idea? Someone in light blue might tell you that it’s ok because the F35 is the most sophisticated air craft in the world and will probably beat all the GBAD. Probably?! Is that enough assurance?

So how do we reduce the cost? If we know that the result of them firing loads of rockets at us is pain we don’t want, we need to stop them firing the weapons. Let’s assume we are in conflict and therefore the Sun Tzu approach isn’t an option. We’re now into the realms of a pre-emptive strike. If ‘we’ represent a threat to Russia, and Russia looks at threat in the same way as us, then they’ll be looking at capability and intent. The ability to destroy a battery of Russian artillery exists. Cruise missiles, Reaper, SF, F35 – there are options that would work. The missing thing then is intent. Or in this case, permissions. Would ‘we’ (the military) get authority to destroy a load of Russian military kit before they fired at us? It would need to be based on pretty solid intelligence that they intended to fire it and that we knew exactly where it was.

Ukrainian army troops have reportedly identified certain types of drones whose appearance inevitably foretells rocket artillery strikes from Russian and Russian-allied forces. Pretty good indication to me.

This also assumes that Russia want the fight more than we do. I’ve mentioned the cost of a war in terms of people and stuff. But that all costs money. Russia’s economy is not huge. All this from a country with an economy “smaller that Italy”? Well for starters that’s rubbish. Russia might have an economy 1/12 the size of the US, but it’s much cheaper to build the exact same thing in Russia than the states due to labour costs, taxes etc. Cheaper yes, but not 1/12 of the cost. Even if that is taken into consideration Russia has the 6thbiggest economy in the world. Back to the human cost, their Army of 800 000 is largely conscription soldiers who only serve a year and have very basic training. The US Army has half a million professional soldiers. Russia would run out of money (which equals stuff) and trained people faster than NATO.

So we’d probably win.

January 26, 2018

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Rooting for FF's Maria Theresa redemption arc.

1stGear posted:

future historians will be amazed that the greatest military theorist of the early 21st century wrote his thoughts entirely in a politics poo poo post forum

This probably happened quite often in history. The greatest Chinese novel Dream of the Red Chamber was written anonymously. It was only some 200 years later that scholars pinpointed it was most likely this guy who had very similar life story of the protagonist in the novel and wrote it semi-autobiographically. And the author didn't even finished the book, somebody else completed the last 1/3 of the chapters and are considered much interior to the first 80 chapters.

stephenthinkpad has issued a correction as of 14:45 on Apr 18, 2024

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


supersnowman posted:

I don't know much about it but the number of stuff they managed to invent/build mean the education system could not be 100% poo poo for sure.

Lot of cool answers to my questions and i was actually pretty familiar with Krupskaya, but I'm actually a little more interested in how Marxism/political history was taught. It seems weird to me that the Soviet system produced so many high level politicians and functionaries who were actively hostile to the system. The US education system has been, until recently, very effective at establishing a baseline level of political and historical understanding that is highly favorable to US ideology. It's still basically impossible to rise to a position of any major influence if you are even slightly opposed to the current system. China has done a much better job establishing cultural hegemony and I'm just wondering if there are any good examinations of why/how

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

DeimosRising posted:

China has done a much better job establishing cultural hegemony and I'm just wondering if there are any good examinations of why/how

the short answer is that the shock therapy leading up to the Tiananmen Square protests, and the protests themselves, was the culmination of China both allowing liberal ideology to be studied and extolled, and then putting parts of it in the driver's seat

insofar as Deng was the one that let them take the reins, he was also the one who saw that it was going to destroy the country, and backed off from it, and crushed it

China survived its dabbling with liberalism. The Soviet Union did not.

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

It could be as simple as material incentive. You can understand that value is created through other people's labour and everything, but when you're running a state factory for a salary, and can imagine helping the Whiz Kids with Shock Doctrine so it becomes your factory, understanding exploitation through a Marxist lens presumably means you can also imagine instead of making four times, or ten, times or whatever, as much as the workers, you could be, well, a capitalist owner and get much, much, wealthier through their labour.

It's like the Wicked Popes. They understood the dimensions of sin, but they were still having orgies in the Vatican. Hell, it seems like it titillated them to break taboos their education had made them aware of. It was more imaginative depravity than just people sitting around following base desires. So, educating people in how capitalist exploitation works, could become a how-to manual if you are not paying attention to who is in a position to use or abuse that knowledge. It takes institutional discipline to keep Borgias, and Gorbachevs, away from power.

e: Also highly recommend that book China Learns from the Soviet Union, 1949–Present which discusses this in detail.

DJJIB-DJDCT has issued a correction as of 14:34 on Apr 18, 2024

tristeham
Jul 31, 2022

comedyblissoption posted:

Marjorie Taylor Greene has introduced an amendment to a foreign aid bill to require members of Congress who vote in favor of providing aid to Ukraine to join the country's military.
https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1780854622992671066

she's right

Minenfeld!
Aug 21, 2012



Does all this mean my history undergrad was designed to break my brain :(

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
This thread can always use more batshit articles by comically detached from reality British journalists:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/18/ukraine-frontline-collapsing-putin-iran-israel-europe/

quote:

Ukraine’s frontline is collapsing – and Britain may soon be at war

Unless we get a grip fast, we will not be going to polling stations in November, but to the enlistment centres

While Western eyes are fixed on Tehran and Tel Aviv, Ukraine’s frontlines are showing clear signs of crumbling. There is a very real possibility they could crumble this summer if we do not throw the kitchen sink at Russia. Even if we do, it may already be too late for the weapons and munitions long promised by the West to save the day.

The toll on both sides has been immense, and much worse than originally thought, but Russia now appears to have the upper hand. Perhaps most critically, the key resource now appears to be manpower rather than jets or tanks.

Russia has lost many more men on the wire of the Donbass than Kyiv has. Yet it seems to have a limitless supply of prisoners and conscripts to throw into its meat grinder. Ukraine, on the other hand, is struggling to scrape up enough men to man its positions. Young men in Ukraine know that a posting to the trenches is very likely to be a one-way ticket. They can see the US locked in internal debate over whether to arm them, and they can also see Britain and America actively intervening to shoot down Iranian drones while refusing to defend Kyiv against the constant Russian bombardment, even when Putin is a far greater threat to our own security. Why, then, would they choose to fight in what the West has apparently deemed a lost cause?

After all, Britain is barely even willing to defend itself. All of our major parties, in their initial electioneering salvos, are saying how important defence is. What they will not do is commit to spend the money we need to ensure our security until economic conditions allow. They should consider instead that security conditions may soon determine the state of our economy.

Our stocks of ammunition and especially precision missiles are thought to be perilously low. It is clear we only have a handful of tanks and even less people to crew them, and too many of our few serviceable fighter jets are patrolling the Middle East rather than Europe.

If the Ukrainian dam breaks this summer, it will already be too late to shore up our crumbling defences. As in 1914 and 1939, we will have to try and cling on in the hope industry can ramp up quickly and that the US will once again guarantee our security. It’s an uncomfortable position to be in.

What we can do right now is help to shore up that dam. We can give Ukrainian troops gas masks and we can shoot down Russian drones and missiles fired at civilians, as we have Iranian ones.

Russia’s frontline gains are partly being driven by the use of chemical weapons. As Bob Seely MP puts it, “the use of a low-level chemical weapon - CS gas - is becoming prevalent along the Ukrainian front lines. They don’t have the correct gas masks. Just like the lack of ammunition, it is killing Ukrainians and endangering them, and ultimately, wider European security.”

We can help with this. Britain is the leading developer and manufacturer of gas marks. It cannot be beyond the wit of the West to get these top-quality masks to the frontlines in Ukraine. As former defence secretary Ben Wallace told me today, “for decades Britain has produced gas masks for many countries. We should be able to lean into this challenge with a significant donation from our own factories”.

Secondly, we have now demonstrated that the RAF and other Nato fighter jets can shoot down drones and missiles fired at civilians without being engaged by Iran. Surely we can offer similar assistance in Ukraine?
If we can’t, then we should consider transferring the necessary assets. At the very least, we should tilt our forces back to providing air cover in Europe, rather than in the Middle East. If Putin’s forces do roll past Ukraine’s frontlines and towards Nato’s borders, we need to be ready.

It is in Europe where all our military focus must be. Whether we will be at war with Russia in Europe could well rest on what we do in the next few months to support Ukraine. Westminster needs to get hold of this notion now. If not, we will not be going to the polling stations in November, but to the enlistment centres to draw our packs and rifles to go and fight in Europe, once again.


Pepe Silvia Browne
Jan 1, 2007
it's really cute that Britain still thinks they're like a major country lol

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

comedyblissoption posted:

Marjorie Taylor Greene has introduced an amendment to a foreign aid bill to require members of Congress who vote in favor of providing aid to Ukraine to join the country's military.
https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1780854622992671066

Meanwhile in Russia:

quote:

Husband of jailed Russian blogger signs up for Ukraine war to secure her release

Alexei Blinovsky reported to have joined unit popular with politicians and VIPs keen to curry favour with the Kremlin

The Russian media reported that Blinovsky joined the Bars Kaskad unit, a specially created group led by the lawmaker Dmitry Sablin. The unit is stacked with members of Russia’s political elite and other prominent Russian VIPs.

From early on in the war, the Kremlin signalled that becoming directly involved in the war would be a way for Russian officials to bolster their standing with Putin, who referred to those participating in the conflict as “the true elite” of the country.

Among the more prominent figures to sign up was Nikolai Peskov, the son of Putin’s long-term spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, who in the spring of 2023 served a stint in Ukraine as part of the Wagner paramilitary group.

Dozens of mid-level officials looking for a boost in their careers have since joined the Bars Kaskad unit.

“Kaskad is specially created for all kinds of famous people and officials … who are looking to publicly demonstrate that they have gone to war and stood up for their country,” said Ruslan Leviev, a military analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team.

I would assume there is some truth to people deriding this unit as a cushy low risk posting, but it's still more sacrifice than US politicians would take on

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

It could be as simple as material incentive. You can understand that value is created through other people's labour and everything, but when you're running a state factory for a salary, and can imagine helping the Whiz Kids with Shock Doctrine so it becomes your factory, understanding exploitation through a Marxist lens presumably means you can also imagine instead of making four times, or ten, times or whatever, as much as the workers, you could be, well, a capitalist owner and get much, much, wealthier through their labour.

It's like the Wicked Popes. They understood the dimensions of sin, but they were still having orgies in the Vatican. Hell, it seems like it titillated them to break taboos their education had made them aware of. It was more imaginative depravity than just people sitting around following base desires. So, educating people in how capitalist exploitation works, could become a how-to manual if you are not paying attention to who is in a position to use or abuse that knowledge. It takes institutional discipline to keep Borgias, and Gorbachevs, away from power.

e: Also highly recommend that book China Learns from the Soviet Union, 1949–Present which discusses this in detail.

I'll definitely check that out, but I guess I should say that I lived in China for a pretty good while and am more familiar with what went right (and wrong) there, but I just don't have a good grasp on how exactly the Soviets hosed up so badly as to go from Lenin and Trotsky and Stalin at the levers of power to Khrushchev and then Gorbachev within 2 generations (and obviously I'm using them as examples because the rot was much deeper than that or they'd never have gotten into power).

gradenko_2000 posted:

the short answer is that the shock therapy leading up to the Tiananmen Square protests, and the protests themselves, was the culmination of China both allowing liberal ideology to be studied and extolled, and then putting parts of it in the driver's seat

insofar as Deng was the one that let them take the reins, he was also the one who saw that it was going to destroy the country, and backed off from it, and crushed it

China survived its dabbling with liberalism. The Soviet Union did not.

I mean, I'd contend China remained on a pretty shaky path in the 90s and early 2000s, and the left turn under Xi was not inevitable. Things look good now but there will always be a risk that the party loses discipline and lets the large and wealthy bourgeoisie that has emerged since the 80s start to accumulate political power (instead of conductiong regular anti-corruption campaigns and re-educating billionaires who get out of line). But yeah the thing I'm really interested in is why the Soviet Union did survive "dabbling with liberalism" - i feel like i have a lot of the pieces but not a satisfying grip on the full picture.

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler

Pepe Silvia Browne posted:

it's really cute that Britain still thinks they're like a major country lol

When the British lion roars, the Russian bear trembles :colbert:

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

DeimosRising posted:

I'll definitely check that out, but I guess I should say that I lived in China for a pretty good while and am more familiar with what went right (and wrong) there, but I just don't have a good grasp on how exactly the Soviets hosed up so badly as to go from Lenin and Trotsky and Stalin at the levers of power to Khrushchev and then Gorbachev within 2 generations (and obviously I'm using them as examples because the rot was much deeper than that or they'd never have gotten into power).

I mean, I'd contend China remained on a pretty shaky path in the 90s and early 2000s, and the left turn under Xi was not inevitable. Things look good now but there will always be a risk that the party loses discipline and lets the large and wealthy bourgeoisie that has emerged since the 80s start to accumulate political power (instead of conductiong regular anti-corruption campaigns and re-educating billionaires who get out of line). But yeah the thing I'm really interested in is why the Soviet Union did survive "dabbling with liberalism" - i feel like i have a lot of the pieces but not a satisfying grip on the full picture.

Khrushchev played a huge part in it. I'm still reading up on the situation myself but Khrushchev's secret speech and his other moves to undermine Stalin's legacy fractured the party in a way it never really recovered from. It set the traditionalists and hardliners on the back foot and made it very difficult for them to combat the reformers. Basically, Deng chose unity and Khrushchev chose chaos. There was a risk that the Chinese leaders might have gone a different direction, but I don't think the USSR's leadership was cohesive enough at the end to really say it had chosen its direction.

Also to add something a bit more wildly speculative. I think that Mao was behind the cultural revolution was way better than Khrushchev's moves. It was easier to repair the damage I think when the figure behind the attack on the establishment is also the figurehead of the establishment. It could be seen as Mao attacking aberrant parts of the establishment, whereas in Khrushchev's case it was him attacking the old establishment itself. I don't know if I'm making this point well. But basically if Stalin had started the repudiation against the current state of the USSR establishment then it would have been easier to heal any rift that caused because as leader and criticizer it would be clear Stalin was targeting specific parts rather than trying to tear down the whole.

Phigs has issued a correction as of 15:12 on Apr 18, 2024

supersnowman
Oct 3, 2012

Pistol_Pete posted:

This thread can always use more batshit articles by comically detached from reality British journalists:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/18/ukraine-frontline-collapsing-putin-iran-israel-europe/

They still think the Russian army run mostly on conscript and prisoners?

Leandros
Dec 14, 2008

I'm sick of countries appropriating spirit animals not indigenous to their country. England is now a Jack Russel Terrier: yappy cunts good for very little except hunting defenseless Foxes.

BrotherJayne
Nov 28, 2019

Homeless Friend posted:

my barn is fight

Still giggling at this one

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Pistol_Pete posted:

This thread can always use more batshit articles by comically detached from reality British journalists:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/18/ukraine-frontline-collapsing-putin-iran-israel-europe/

"Unless we get a grip fast, we will not be going to polling stations in November, but to the enlistment centres"

I don't know how many times I can say this about the Brits, but the "there's no such thing as society" people are deluding themselves if they think we are going to the enlistment centres.

Here's the Toronto recruiting office in 1914,



and one in London,



I don't know what it is about British Tories specifically that they all vividly remember these scene, and evidently love to imagine it, they only need to declare war and have people line up, when they more than anyone else, more than even the most fervent antiwar activists, have made this not just impossible but ridiculous.

"All volunteer military" and "completely atomized society that has done nothing for you" are not compatible. "Take the king's shilling and die for the government that will dismantle the NHS!", "Step up to defend the social order that offers you nothing, and has made your life worse!", "When your dog (can't afford to have kids) asks you what you did in the Great War, what will you say?"

DJJIB-DJDCT has issued a correction as of 15:15 on Apr 18, 2024

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

comedyblissoption posted:

Marjorie Taylor Greene has introduced an amendment to a foreign aid bill to require members of Congress who vote in favor of providing aid to Ukraine to join the country's military.
https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1780854622992671066

She did the thhing that every lib said should happen during the Bush years. Its incredible how they managed to get flanked from the Left by the worst people

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Especially lol since it was iirc absolutely the original plan to train up stay-behind Gladio after Ukraine immediately collapsed and got rolled over by Russia, but now even those who would form those are getting sent to the meat grinder at the front after everyone got sick of them hiding behind actual soldiers and civilians to massacre minorities.

The problem is they keep running way so the core of a potential nazi terror campaign remains

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Pepe Silvia Browne posted:

it's really cute that Britain still thinks they're like a major country lol

Again, the same Tories that did it, like their actual policies, 1:1, are the reason for this, are the ones who still believe it.

I guess this is because of Whig History, or worse, 19th Century British Romantic Epic History? If they all learned about the greatness of the Anglo-Saxon White Race British in public school, well they're still British, obviously they're great. When they go on to become Tory MPs, beep boop austerity goes in, Waterloo, Mons and El Alamein come out.

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Pistol_Pete posted:

When the British lion roars, the Russian bear trembles :colbert:



Goddamn I love Punch.




Whoever pointed out that their cartoons about China could be printed today was dead on.

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

I don't know how many times I can say this about the Brits, but the "there's no such thing as society" people are deluding themselves if they think we are going to the enlistment centres.

Here's the Toronto recruiting office in 1914,



and one in London,



I don't know what it is about British Tories specifically that they all vividly remember these scene, and evidently love to imagine it, they only need to declare war and have people line up, when they more than anyone else, more than even the most fervent antiwar activists, have made this not just impossible but ridiculous.

"All volunteer military" and "completely atomized society that has done nothing for you" are not compatible. "Take the king's shilling and die for the government that will dismantle the NHS!", "Step up to defend the social order that offers you nothing, and has made your life worse!", "When your dog (can't afford to have kids) asks you what you did in the Great War, what will you say?"

Yeah lol all these western militaries are releasing yearly reports stating in unequivocal terms that they can't entice enough recruits to fill their peacetime ranks and they still expect lines around the block at every armoury when the pedophiles and landlords who have left everyone poor and despondent start the next war

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

the only flank the democrats have is left so it’s going to happen from time to time

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

DaysBefore posted:

Yeah lol all these western militaries are releasing yearly reports stating in unequivocal terms that they can't entice enough recruits to fill their peacetime ranks and they still expect lines around the block at every armoury when the pedophiles and landlords who have left everyone poor and despondent start the next war

They literally could not imagine giving veterans houses for free after this war of theirs too. That's not counting the promise of guaranteed employment, and building a new society. Has not occurred to them, will not occur to them, they would be disgusted if someone brought it up. Like, they really think they can get people to fight WW3, and then, if they win, give them a handshake and good luck on civvy street.

On the home front, between Grenfell and covid, why on earth would anyone trust their lives to the government? They would probably cook up means testing for destroyed homes should Blighty be bombed, at best.

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Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/17/russian-peacekeepers-start-withdrawal-from-azerbaijans-nagorno-karabakh

quote:

“The early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers, temporarily stationed in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan in accordance with the trilateral statement signed on November 10, 2020, has been decided by the leaders of both countries,” it quoted him as saying.

“The process has already begun with the ministries of defence of Azerbaijan and Russia implementing appropriate measures for the execution of that decision.”

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