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fatherboxx)
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Raenir Salazar posted:But there was no war before Russia material supported and astroturfed a separatist movement, and invaded and took over Crimea and those regions; what value would such a cease fire have when the actor in question acted unilaterally in the first place? Isn't that just agreeing to give them a pause to reorganize their forces and strike again when Ukraine lets their guard down? How do you think the war will end?
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Apr 20, 2024 15:10
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Enjoy posted:How do you think the war will end? Very carefully.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:20
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Enjoy posted:How do you think the war will end? This doesn't address my post, I've explained how your scenario is fundamentally unworkable, the burden of proof is on you to either further substantiate your argument, or address and provide counter points to the specific points/arguments within my argument. The obvious answer however is that Russia unilaterally withdraws as a starting point for good faith negotiations, because yes, the war cannot come to an end that isn't either total Ukrainian occupation and surrender, or Russian withdrawal; while the fact remains that any middle ground given the current material circumstances is merely a fiction that enables further Russian aggression. You have not addressed this point.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:21
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Enjoy posted:The things which will stop happening once the war ends It's not a war, it's a special military operation. Ipso facto those things are not happening at all.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:23
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Raenir Salazar posted:the war cannot come to an end that isn't either total Ukrainian occupation and surrender, or Russian withdrawal A bleak view of Ukraine's future.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:29
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Enjoy posted:A bleak view of Ukraine's future. War is very bleak, that is true, but to be clear you suggested that a ceasefire "then" would have saved Ukrainian lives, presumably because you felt it would've likely brought an end to the war going by your follow up post as context, do you now agree that your suggestion was and currently still is infeasible?
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Apr 20, 2024 15:49
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Raenir Salazar posted:War is very bleak, that is true, but to be clear you suggested that a ceasefire "then" would have saved Ukrainian lives, presumably because you felt it would've likely brought an end to the war going by your follow up post as context, do you now agree that your suggestion was and currently still is infeasible? No, I think the war is most likely to end with a settlement that includes territorial transfer from Ukraine to Russia, and Ukrainian accession to western organisations like the EU or NATO
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Apr 20, 2024 15:53
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What is there even to negotiate about? Russia wants all of Ukraine either annexed into itself or basically a vassal. Either way it would no longer exist as a independent state or society. You cant negotiate when one side`s position is that they get everything.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:54
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Baudolino posted:You cant negotiate when one side`s position is that they get everything. Right, which is why they are still fighting. But eventually, there will likely be some kind of negotiated settlement, unless Russia manages to be very very successful.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:56
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Enjoy posted:No, I think the war is most likely to end with a settlement that includes territorial transfer from Ukraine to Russia, and Ukrainian accession to western organisations like the EU or NATO Why would Russia agree to that? It's not my understanding that Russia was desperately short of land and thus had to invade Ukraine. All their reasons for invading Ukraine would remain under that peace, even more strongly than before. With Ukraine in Nato or the EU, there is no way Russia can accomplish any of their goals.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:57
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poor waif posted:Why would Russia agree to that? It's not my understanding that Russia was desperately short of land and thus had to invade Ukraine. All their reasons for invading Ukraine would remain under that peace, even more strongly than before. The reasons for invading Ukraine were to bolster the internal legitimacy of the Putin regime, secure Putin's historical legacy, and to play out Putin's ultranationalist fantasies. Taking the Russian-speaking Ukrainian territories and forcing the West to accept that would be achieving his aims.
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Apr 20, 2024 16:01
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Enjoy posted:The reasons for invading Ukraine were to bolster the internal legitimacy of the Putin regime, secure Putin's historical legacy, and to play out Putin's ultranationalist fantasies. Taking the Russian-speaking Ukrainian territories and forcing the West to accept that would be achieving his aims. Putin's aims are the complete destruction and assimilation of all of Ukraine. He has stated this clearly multiple times. A ceasefire is just a chance for Russia to rearm before they continue the war. That includes genociding all of the Ukrainians and replacing them with Russians. Supporting Russia is supporting genocide.
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Apr 20, 2024 16:05
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Enjoy posted:The reasons for invading Ukraine were to bolster the internal legitimacy of the Putin regime, secure Putin's historical legacy, and to play out Putin's ultranationalist fantasies. Taking the Russian-speaking Ukrainian territories and forcing the West to accept that would be achieving his aims. There are plenty of Russian-speaking areas left, including Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa. Why wouldn't he want to come back for those? They'd be forever lost if he lets Ukraine join NATO or the EU.
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Apr 20, 2024 16:13
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Enjoy posted:No, I think the war is most likely to end with a settlement that includes territorial transfer from Ukraine to Russia, and Ukrainian accession to western organisations like the EU or NATO I agree, but getting there is going to require a substantial amount of fighting to persuade Putin that this is the best he's going to do. There has been no point in the war where Russia was willing to settle along these lines and recently Putin explicitly stated that he has no interest in negotiating a ceasefire as long as he feels Russia can grind out more territory.
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Apr 20, 2024 16:18
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poor waif posted:There are plenty of Russian-speaking areas left, including Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa. Why wouldn't he want to come back for those? They'd be forever lost if he lets Ukraine join NATO or the EU. He tried and he failed
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Apr 20, 2024 16:20
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Enjoy posted:No, I think the war is most likely to end with a settlement that includes territorial transfer from Ukraine to Russia, and Ukrainian accession to western organisations like the EU or NATO Russia isn't fighting this war for small territorial gains. The entire conflict is about denying Ukraine the ability to join Western organizations like the ones you said. The Near Abroad represents the traditional Russian zone of influence since Catharine the Great and Putin was unwilling to let it fall on his watch. Any peace treaty will explicitly deny Ukraine, even if it is left as a rump state, the ability to join those organizations. The potential outcomes look increasingly divergent from each other. Either Ukraine will fold under pressure, either being territorially conquered or through exhaustion, and Kyiv will once again firmly be under Russian control; or the Russian state will be unable to sustain Putin's ambition and they are powerless to stop the Ukrainians from regaining the majority of their land and begin integration into the west. There possibly was a time before 2022 when Ukraine could have found a middle path but everyone has invested too much for that outcome. Enjoy posted:He tried and he failed The war isn't over?
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Apr 20, 2024 16:21
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Enjoy posted:He tried and he failed Ah, just like Russia tried and failed to secure the entirety of the Donbas after 2014, so they froze the conflict forever and wrote off further attempts at conquest.
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Apr 20, 2024 16:22
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Enjoy posted:He tried and he failed So why not keep trying, as he is doing at he moment? As long as the war keeps going, he has a chance of taking them. If he stops, and Ukraine manages to join the EU and NATO, he has lost them forever. A lasting peace can't be predicated on the assumption that Putin will be forever content to take some bombed out shells of former Ukrainian cities. This is the third time he has sent troops into Ukraine in a decade. Giving him whatever he's wanted in negotiations hasn't worked yet. He has no reason to agree to a peace that means Ukraine joins NATO or the EU, there's much more incentive for him to simply keep the war going, if that's going to happen. He has also shown that if Ukraine isn't given any kind of security guarantees, he'll just come back once he has rebuilt his military.
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Apr 20, 2024 16:28
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mlmp08 posted:Right, which is why they are still fighting. But eventually, there will likely be some kind of negotiated settlement, unless Russia manages to be very very successful. If the Ukrainian front collapses due to an end of western weapons/ammo deliveries and manpower shortages(like the Russian front did in fall of 2022), why would Russia stop advancing instead of taking the whole thing? I don't understand that logic at all. They have clearly demonstrated that they are willing to destroy entire cities to conquer them. They have artillery tactics that allow them to take strongholds with relatively little losses(once Ukraine has no longer access to HIMARS anymore). They have demonstrated the will to keep this war going for many years and waste hundreds of thousands of Russian lives on Putin's dream. Why would they stop at the gates of Kyiv and leave the job half finished instead of taking a year or two more to finish it completely?
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Apr 20, 2024 16:30
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In your example of complete collapse of all Ukrainian governmental resistance, you've discovered the point of my clause "unless Russia manages to be very very successful"
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Apr 20, 2024 16:32
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mlmp08 posted:In your example of complete collapse of all Ukrainian governmental resistance, you've discovered the point of my clause "unless Russia manages to be very very successful" Isn't a collapse of the front inevitable, if western aid stops? Like, how much artillery ammunition can Ukraine produce domestically once they have zero access to Western air defense technology anymore? Is your case of "Russia manages to be very very successful" just Trump/Republicans win the election and Europe also shifts right?
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Apr 20, 2024 16:42
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Enjoy posted:No, I think the war is most likely to end with a settlement that includes territorial transfer from Ukraine to Russia, and Ukrainian accession to western organisations like the EU or NATO You're dodging the question with a non-sequitor, because you stated originally that you believed a ceasefire in 2022 would have saved Ukrainian lives and this isn't true. Enjoy posted:He tried and he failed You aware of who else tried to invade Eastern Europe and failed in their operational goals but still kept going anyways? Why is this situation any different?
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Apr 20, 2024 16:43
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GABA ghoul posted:Isn't a collapse of the front inevitable, if “Thing is inevitable, IF” is where I think you’re getting twisted on my meaning. I don’t think total collapse is inevitable. It’s possible.
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Apr 20, 2024 16:45
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Its increasingly unlikely Ukraine recovers most of its lost territory militarily, but at this stage the best outcome now is probably bleeding Russia enough that a peace that gives up the occupied territory in exchange for Ukraine's entry into NATO is acceptable to Russia. Because otherwise any peace treaty will just be a frozen conflict will be restarted in 3 or 5 or 8 years to finish the job, as Russia has form in.. But for for Russia to accept that they'll have to be in a relatively desperate-for-peace state, which they're far from yet.
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Apr 20, 2024 17:42
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You all feeding the trolls again? That $$$$ get voted through the American place yet?
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Apr 20, 2024 17:54
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Enjoy posted:The reasons for invading Ukraine were to bolster the internal legitimacy of the Putin regime, secure Putin's historical legacy, and to play out Putin's ultranationalist fantasies. Taking the Russian-speaking Ukrainian territories and forcing the West to accept that would be achieving his aims. Russia's aim was to actually conquer all of Ukraine. The goalposts have moved so much due to Russia's humiliating failures that now their various schills are talking about merely holding onto the territory that they did gain. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240 quote:A Russian news agency has published and then deleted an article prematurely praising Russia's success in invading Ukraine. Given how wrong you are, are you willing to concede that Russia will not stop at the "Republics" without being forced to stop and will very obviously not respect any treaties?
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Apr 20, 2024 17:57
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Just Another Lurker posted:That $$$$ get voted through the American place yet? Not yet.
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Apr 20, 2024 18:00
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Just Another Lurker posted:You all feeding the trolls again? I thought the rules explicitly stated that we have to assume everyone is posting earnestly and with total honesty and not in bad faith, so as I understand it feeding the trolls is mandatory.
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Apr 20, 2024 18:03
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Gravitas Shortfall posted:I thought the rules explicitly stated that we have to assume everyone is posting earnestly and with total honesty and not in bad faith, so as I understand it feeding the trolls is mandatory. People could just ignore them instead of endlessly posting at them, although I agree with you that the rules give off strong Elon at X "I am a very smart master of free speech" energy.
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Apr 20, 2024 18:35
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Blut posted:Its increasingly unlikely Ukraine recovers most of its lost territory militarily, but at this stage the best outcome now is probably bleeding Russia enough that a peace that gives up the occupied territory in exchange for Ukraine's entry into NATO is acceptable to Russia. Because otherwise any peace treaty will just be a frozen conflict will be restarted in 3 or 5 or 8 years to finish the job, as Russia has form in.. The best outcome at this point is Ukraine continues to bleed Russia dry until Putin's death, whenever that occurs.
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Apr 20, 2024 18:52
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beer_war posted:Not yet. It did now, 311-112
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Apr 20, 2024 18:52
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beer_war posted:It did now, 311-112 Yep, indeed: https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/house-vote-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-04-20-24/index.html "The House passed the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act with a vote of 311-112. One member – GOP Rep Dan Meuser – voted present." - 6 minutes ago
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Apr 20, 2024 19:05
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60.8 billion Let's goooo
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Apr 20, 2024 19:06
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Quixzlizx posted:People could just ignore them instead of endlessly posting at them, although I agree with you that the rules give off strong Elon at X "I am a very smart master of free speech" energy. Failure to respond to a rebuttal is a punishable offense. The rule system depends on the notion that the mods will remove trolls. They don't, so...
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Apr 20, 2024 19:09
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beer_war posted:It did now, 311-112 Israel aid and Taiwan funding also passed. Border stuff didn’t.
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Apr 20, 2024 19:47
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I'm glad that US politicians have finally realized what a farce this has been, and what the cost was. From now on I'm sure they will behave like adults and never let this happen again
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Apr 20, 2024 19:50
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The GOP could have had the toughest border bill since, idk, the Mexican war? but they pissed it all away because orange man didn't want a biden win
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Apr 20, 2024 20:01
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This is hilarious. Yet again, because of their own intransigence and stupidity, the GOP loses something they wanted, and the Dems get what they were angling for all along. Sucks it cost Ukrainian lives in the meantime, I hope this aid can help turn the tide.
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Apr 20, 2024 20:21
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So we have any idea what Ukraine is gonna get in terms of weapons from this?
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Apr 20, 2024 23:00
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cr0y posted:So we have any idea what Ukraine is gonna get in terms of weapons from this? Money To Support Ukraine May Be Coming To Your Hometown – U.S.-Ukraine Foundation usukraine.org posted:Of the nearly $61 billion for Ukraine expected to get through Congress, approximately $48 billion would go to the Pentagon to finance arming Ukraine, replenish weapons, and pay for military operations in Europe.
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Apr 20, 2024 23:09
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