(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Accipiter posted:What needs to happen is that a totally unknown but actual good person needs to run on MAGA sensibilities. Appeal to the degenerates currently goose-stepping the right's ranks and adopt the current flock by whatever means necessary to propel themselves to victory. Yeah, can you believe that it's been like 40+ years since someone even tried to kill a president?
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Apr 28, 2024 23:11
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Mistle posted:Not a fart or gastroenterology expert, but I would guess Biden has gas from all the dairy in the ice cream he eats. You are weak if dairy makes you fart.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:12
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NEELIX 28!
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Apr 28, 2024 23:13
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QuarkJets posted:jared kushner brought peace to the middle east and i can't believe that joe biden was able to undo it all so fast i can't believe joe biden undid bush's may 2003 victory in iraq too 
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Apr 28, 2024 23:13
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3 DONG HORSE posted:You are weak if dairy makes you fart. Reported for ableism
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Apr 28, 2024 23:18
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ragnarokette posted:You're in the ballpark but statistics is just brain melting like that sometimes. I appreciate this effort post, but I think there are still a bunch more biases that are implicit in this approach. All of this methodology is due to the fact that they ragnarokette posted:Namely that your sampling is normally distributed, which I'm not going to check but nature loves a normal distribution so it's incredibly likely and given that its an industry standard technique I'm guessing it is. I think this is very, very untrue, and has been getting so bad recently that it could be the main cause of the issue here. If a phone call, who picks up? Who has a phone? Who stays on to answer questions? How did you find the number? Did they lie about their demographics/voter status, or do you have that data via another means? When in the day did you call? Did you call from a number known to be a scam? I realize this CNN example is different, but the same sort of thing applies, who is going to be on this panel? is that random? I don't know exactly, but someone said in one of these threads that the response rate for a cold polling call is less than 1%. Which, lol, good luck saying that's a representative sub-sample of a population. I mean maybe of the dumb-rear end, will answer any random number demographic. Another thing is that there is an implicit assumption that there are demographic features that can be known about voters, that there are sub-populations of voters with these demographics that vote similarly, and that we can identify them via questions determined a priori. Some of these might be true, but when we are talking about a bloc like 'young voters' or 'minority 1' is that a good bloc that votes similarly enough to allow you to take a sample of them and interpolate? Who decided that? Was that before or after event x happened and that bloc split? Did you specify enough demographic classes to get a good model, and few enough that you have valid numbers for cross-tabs to inform your model? All is BS methodology crap seems to get you any answer you want. Which sure, that's always been true, but I think now we are seeing such huge differences between polls of the same race, and between polls and reality that I wonder at WTF people at CNN or whatever are doing. It sure seems like the polling world is flushing any credibility it had down the drain. Sorry, this might have come off harsh, but this poll thing really sticks to me. I want good info about these races, but there just isn't any.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:19
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lilljonas posted:Well I can't remember Israel ever being this mask off genocidal in decades, so Biden not doing anything about it and just shipping more bombs to Israel daily means that he deserves to be called out on it. And then Israel gets invaded.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:20
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So does anyone believe the possibility these polls are correct, and Trump is in the lead?
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Apr 28, 2024 23:20
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redshirt posted:So does anyone believe the possibility these polls are correct, and Trump is in the lead? Other than the fact we live in the dumbest possible timeline? Though again, how Kennedy (who isn't even gonna be on the ballot in several states, I imagine) takes 15% from Biden is a bit of a stretch for me.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:23
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redshirt posted:So does anyone believe the possibility these polls are correct, and Trump is in the lead? I believe polls are selectively chosen for which can be sensationalized the most. Unless you're next to Trump, in which case you grab any "poll" that says he's the specialist boy ever.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:24
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Bone Crimes posted:If a sample of 1000 people was truly random, you would not need any model or other technique to 'correct' the numbers for the U.S. voting population. You wouldn't need to struggle to find young/queer/minority people.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:24
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redshirt posted:Let's all stop gaslighting each other and accept the reality that Trump is somehow ahead in the polls. no
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Apr 28, 2024 23:24
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dervival posted:have your in-laws heard literally nothing about project 2025 The true believers will argue that Project 2025 is a Dem false flag thingie. They will not own it, even while espousing many of the things that are contained in that plan. At the same time they'll call the left "communists" who want to control every aspect of your life.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:25
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I don’t think the general U.S population is very aware of the legal issues Trump faces still. That’s why I can believe he’s ahead.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:27
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Waltzing Along posted:I'm poo poo posting Nice! I'm posting while I poo poo.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:27
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Trump is going to win Puerto Rico 
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Apr 28, 2024 23:27
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redshirt posted:So does anyone believe the possibility these polls are correct, and Trump is in the lead? I entertain the possibility. Like I always say - America didn't get either smarter or saner since they elected him the first time. Probably not though.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:27
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Funky See Funky Do posted:I entertain the possibility. Like I always say - America didn't get either smarter or saner since they elected him the first time. All of the elections post 2016 have leaned harder blue than anyone could have predicted, including some historical victories in an off cycle year. A lot of red voters died from covid and a lot of blue voters are more engaged than ever because they're pissed. Add to that roe v wade and all the abortion poo poo, and '24 will likely be a landslide compared to '20. Anything can happen, but the winds are definitely blowing pretty hard in favor of Trump getting his poo poo kicked in.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:32
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3 DONG HORSE posted:You are weak if dairy makes you fart.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:36
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Bone Crimes posted:I wonder at WTF people at CNN or whatever are doing. It sure seems like the polling world is flushing any credibility it had down the drain. Sorry, this might have come off harsh, but this poll thing really sticks to me. I want good info about these races, but there just isn't any. also, with all due respect to the pollsters, you can look at a poll where trump wins women +1 and instantly dismiss it lol (not to mention winning 18-29s significantly, but at least i understand those are harder to find and there are a lot fewer of them in your sample so weighting can make your numbers less realistic)
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Apr 28, 2024 23:36
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The only polls worth paying attention to right now are actual special elections.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:36
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Until Trump is dead and in the ground, I trust no poll
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Apr 28, 2024 23:37
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redshirt posted:Until Trump is dead and in the ground, I trust no poll Trump just died  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 28, 2024 23:38
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kazil posted:Trump is going to win Puerto Rico 
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Apr 28, 2024 23:41
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No matter what happens, literally no matter what, Trumpnwill claim that Biden rigged the voting machine or something
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Apr 28, 2024 23:42
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free hubcaps posted:Trump just died First I'm hearing this
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Apr 28, 2024 23:43
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Fun anecdote, having dinner with the fam and mom and grandmom were complaining loudly that their Republican Primary ballot didn't have party designations so they didn't know who to vote for besides Trump. Larry Hogan eventually got a vote on name recognition. How is it possible to consume the news all day and not know anything about your home state or that Trump and Hogan famously don't get along.
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Apr 28, 2024 23:44
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free hubcaps posted:Trump just died NUB NUB!
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Apr 28, 2024 23:48
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Hogan? The wrestler?
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Apr 29, 2024 00:02
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Bottom Liner posted:All of the elections post 2016 have leaned harder blue than anyone could have predicted, including some historical victories in an off cycle year. A lot of red voters died from covid and a lot of blue voters are more engaged than ever because they're pissed. Add to that roe v wade and all the abortion poo poo, and '24 will likely be a landslide compared to '20. Yes, yes, but have you considered that we're doomed? Doomed, I say.
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Apr 29, 2024 00:04
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eke out posted:also, with all due respect to the pollsters, you can look at a poll where trump wins women +1 and instantly dismiss it lol (not to mention winning 18-29s significantly, but at least i understand those are harder to find and there are a lot fewer of them in your sample so weighting can make your numbers less realistic) Very correct take. Trump ain't winning women or the youths.
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Apr 29, 2024 00:13
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Goatse James Bond posted:Hogan? The wrestler? They'd probably vote for him
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Apr 29, 2024 00:16
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The one thing that Trump sort of has in his favor is the massive inflation we are seeing due to corps going gloves off with constantly raising the prices on everything. The news media is just reporting on the high prices but not on the massive profits they are pulling in. It's like they figured out that they can just go crazy with prices and no one will do anything about it and at the same time blame biden in the hopes of trump dropping taxes a ton again. It's loving disgusting. If this country had any actual means or desire to maintain prices, Biden would win with 400+ EVs.
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Apr 29, 2024 00:18
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free hubcaps posted:Trump just died Yuck!
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Apr 29, 2024 00:22
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3 DONG HORSE posted:You are weak if dairy makes you fart. Farting is fun, Captain Buzzkill.
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Apr 29, 2024 00:23
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redshirt posted:Nervous about these poll numbers? What are you doing specifically to help? Are you donating money? Are you making calls/donating time? Are you working with a campaign? lol Like any of that is gonna change things
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Apr 29, 2024 00:23
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Altared State posted:lol So, nothing means anything, nothing matters. Correct?
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Apr 29, 2024 00:27
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Ghostlight posted:You have to have a model precisely because the sampling is random and you're trying to match it with the population of the United States, which is not. Huh? Isn't the whole point that a sufficiently large random sample of a heterogeneous population trends to the mean of that population? a large random sample should catch the same percentage of whatever group within statistical polling error. If you have a poll where you have 1% young voters, but those voters make up 20% of the electorate based on the actual results or polling records, you don't have a random sample.
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Apr 29, 2024 00:27
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frytechnician posted:Yeah, wrote that poorly. I meant to infer that Obama took shots at Trump and even though they were incredibly soft touch, he still lost his mind that he was taunted by the charismatic black man in front of everyone. I often write how I talk, which is to say kind of sloppily. Whilst what you say is true, I tend to think of if/interpret it ever so slightly differently. Trump holds his petty grudge against Obama so fervently not only because Obama gently made un of him. (Although that is a big part of it), but also because Obama was not bothered by, and shrugged off and chuckled at Trump's hate filled invective and campaign of "Show us the birth certificate you dark skinned foreigner!!!" To Trump's mind this was an unforgivable disrespect, because it meant he was not important, he was not big, he was not the powerful important, respectable, influential newsmaker that he needs to think he is. If a *gasp* black man can so easily brush off his attacks and not be bothered by them, then that means he is weak and powerless and an inconsequential figure of fun. This will not stand!
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Apr 29, 2024 00:30
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redshirt posted:So does anyone believe the possibility these polls are correct, and Trump is in the lead? No. These same polls have been showing Republicans winning all their elections with +10, +20, and higher and they keep losing to Democrats. Any time a MAGA goes to bat, they get creamed. Trump is pure cancer when it comes to voters. It's made up horse race bullshit.
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Apr 29, 2024 00:31
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