The 2024 NFL Draft Thread - Draft Good Players With High Picks

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > The 2024 NFL Draft Thread - Draft Good Players With High Picks

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Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Play posted:

Something I wanted to look into about this year's class, since I noticed that there were a lot of prospects I would consider older. The AVERAGE age of Brugler's 400 top prospects was 23.24.

That's really something. I would've guessed maybe somewhere in the 22s but 23.24?

Prospect age has been falling considerably since 2000; in 2018 it was only 21.7. About a year and a half younger than this year's. The only year recently that has been higher was the covid-affected 2022 draft at 24.11 (!) years of age. Certainly covid played a role, but NIL money seems to also be having a large effect. If players aren't confident about their draft positions, they may prefer to wait since they are getting paid already, and see if they can't raise their standings with another year in college.

Quarterback is often looked at as one of the positions where being older may not be a huge deal. However, looking purely at results it seems that quarterback is actually a position where being younger when drafted actually leads to larger increases in total performance than at other positions.

Allen was 21, Herbert was 22, Mahomes was 22, Lamar was 21, Stroud was 21, Lawrence was 21. That doesn't prove anything on its own, since most QBs drafted during that time were young and there are also plenty of young busts. But it's true that I'm having trouble thinking about any recent quarterback prospect who was older and also had success, apart from Joe Burrow. It will be very interesting to see what happens with Penix, Daniels and Nix, the older prospects in this draft, vs. Williams, Maye and JJ who fall into the younger category.

I actually, literally believe that I could beat that guy's broad jump.

Generally outside of specific circumstances(Burrow, he just literally because lmao college coaches, he never got a chance to start, and once he did he balled loving out for 2 years and was drafted) being an Older QB means generally you weren't loving good enough to make it to the league until you got old enough to be significantly closer to your prime, and significantly more snaps and game reps than younger players you are going up against.

It's why I've been so discriminatory against old QB's who have the break out year in their last year.

It's generally a sign that they at the very least are slower to develop, because most elite QB's show they are elite in college and are draftable with 2-3 years of starters reps.
Just like in the NFL, It's pretty clear after year 2-3 you will have a pretty solid idea of if you are going to have an elite franchise QB, with only like 2-3 outliers.

I'm willing to get burned on outliers by passing on older QB's with 4+ years of reps, who had an explosion of a year that coincided with just overwhelming talent at the college level around them.

Dexo fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Apr 29, 2024

# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:22

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# ? May 23, 2024 15:58

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Scared me so I went back and checked and Chiefs first three picks were 20, 21 and 21. Not foolin Veach with that Covid Age Trap

ignore that tight end being 23

# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:33

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

lol at drafting olds

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1784958125780439185

# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:35

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

I think ages are messed up right now due to general COVID goofiness and the extra eligibility year plus NIL. COVID eligibility year is a blip, but I think we will almost certainly see more pull from NIL to have more high level prospects stay in school for longer. Just look at tOSU's returning players. Without NIL, a bunch of those guys go to the draft this year rather than next.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:53

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

Yeah. I think NIL makes this the new normal. These kids are just risking less by staying in college another year.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:55

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

QBs will probably not stay if they are good prospects. If they are third round or later graded then maybe as if they do have their outlier year they will get drafted in the first and then bust somewhere.

We just saw JJ McCarthy drafted in the first round, And Anthony Richardson.

I don't think NIL matters except for the late rounds of the draft maybe not being as deep, but I don't even think that's the case once we get past this transition period with the covid year because then those dudes will just be regular seniors. At some point. Like you might get less of the juniors who are decently productive and toolsy but only have 4th to 5th round grades on them as if they go back they can really improve their draft grade by being a year older and more developed.

Dexo fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Apr 29, 2024

# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:58

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

Spencer Rattler just went in the 5th round. Seemingly because he was a shithead at 16.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:01

Relentlessboredomm: Oct 15, 2006; It's Sic Semper Tyrannis. You said, "Ever faithful terrible lizard."

kiimo posted:

Washington: let's hire Kingsbury to run an air raid offense!

Also Washington: but hell no do we want a QB that has experience in two different variations of an air raid offense. Let's get a running QB instead

dumb teams staying dumb

Kliff added a bunch of normal pro stuff to his scheme even at Arizona, whether or not Kyler could run it is another question, but he hasn�t been pure air raid in the pros. It also sounds like some teams saw Maye�s footwork as a big enough concern to drop him down their boards

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:01

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Spencer Rattler just went in the 5th round. Seemingly because he was a shithead at 16.

He had four years of pedestrian production and The lasting moment for him is going to probably be Caleb coming in that OU game taking the starting job and never giving it back.

It makes complete sense that he went in the fifth round.

I legitimately think that the meta that is seemingly coming is there is not going to be very many day two quarterbacks at all anymore as if you are good enough to draft that high someone is going to take you in the first if only for the 5th year option. and if you aren't there's no rush to get you in the second or third.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:05

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Not that it's the same but Mahomes was a reach at 10 because of footwork. Hell I heard it even in this very forum

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:05

Kalli: Jun 2, 2001

kiimo posted:

Not that it's the same but Mahomes was a reach at 10 because of footwork. Hell I heard it even in this very forum

I mean he went to the perfect situation, I don't see what's wrong in his draft profile:

quote:

Overview
Mahomes is a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he's developed some bad habits and doesn't have a very repeatable process as a passer. Mahomes' ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he's a high ceiling, low floor prospect.

Strengths
Possesses NFL body type for work inside and out of the pocket. Has an undeniable swagger and confidence to his game. Accuracy has improved in each season since his freshman year. Naturally accurate in his every day throws. Comfortable challenging defenders in space. Has arm strength and fearlessness to attack the cover-2 voids down the sideline. Can make deep, field side throws. Cranks up velocity to fit passes into tight windows. Former pitcher who propels hips through his release with aggressive torque and never gets cheated on his follow-through. Can deliver strikes from a variety of arm angles. Expedites release on RPOs (run-pass option) or when pressure is mounting in pocket. Puts effort into play-action fakes. Relaxed and effective when throwing on the move. Can be a legitimate dual-threat in a boot-action offense. Improved his eye manipulation over the years and will eyeball linebackers to hold them while patterns unfold around them. Has pocket mobility to escape pressure and the poise to extend plays and find alternate targets. Hands are very strong. Can pump and reset without issues. Competes as a runner and is willing to go the extra mile for the first down.

Weaknesses
Can be inconsistent in his approach. Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline. Too eager to go big game hunting. Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble. Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm. Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him. Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice. Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet. Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release. Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail. Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls. Carries ball a little low in the pocket. Impatient. Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm. Better as a scrambler than pure runner. Looked a little less mobile in the open field this season.

NFL Comparable: Jay Cutler

Like put him on the 2018 Browns or Jets, and he's a bust, hopefully a Mayfield-esque reclamation success at this point.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:10

Nosre: Apr 16, 2002

'take them first or take them last'

If a QB could be legit, that's worth a first. Otherwise it's later round fliers

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:11

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

NIL is fantastic for the common man and absolutely brutal for college coaches but I don't think it affects the draft that much. You still make more getting drafted than the top current NIL deals although I suppose that number will fluctuate as boosters/companies go crazy.

The real problem is the medical hardships the NCAA is handing out like candy. If you're third on the depth chart you can just say your foot hurts and you'll get an extra year of eligibility somewhere.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:16

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

Kalli posted:

I mean he went to the perfect situation, I don't see what's wrong in his draft profile:

Like put him on the 2018 Browns or Jets, and he's a bust, hopefully a Mayfield-esque reclamation success at this point.

Profile reads about right. Staying patient and playing within framework is something Mahomes worked on and now does better than almost anyone, without sacrificing any of his improvisational magic. I will say "NFL Comparable: Jay Cutler" is not something I expected.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:18

wandler20: Nov 13, 2002; How many Championships?

Just listening to the Bucs beat writers podcast, the Bucs didn't like Powers-Johnson attitude or something and wouldn't have drafted him in the second round had he lasted there. Christian Mahogany was another one that they took off the board because they didn't like how he'd be as a locker room fit.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:21

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Dexo posted:

QBs will probably not stay if they are good prospects. If they are third round or later graded then maybe as if they do have their outlier year they will get drafted in the first and then bust somewhere.

We just saw JJ McCarthy drafted in the first round, And Anthony Richardson.

I don't think NIL matters except for the late rounds of the draft maybe not being as deep, but I don't even think that's the case once we get past this transition period with the covid year because then those dudes will just be regular seniors. At some point. Like you might get less of the juniors who are decently productive and toolsy but only have 4th to 5th round grades on them as if they go back they can really improve their draft grade by being a year older and more developed.

NIL is probably more relevant for guys who are good in college but with very fringe potential in the NFL, to the point of possibly going undrafted. Not first round QBs

Dexo posted:

He had four years of pedestrian production and The lasting moment for him is going to probably be Caleb coming in that OU game taking the starting job and never giving it back.

It makes complete sense that he went in the fifth round.

I legitimately think that the meta that is seemingly coming is there is not going to be very many day two quarterbacks at all anymore as if you are good enough to draft that high someone is going to take you in the first if only for the 5th year option. and if you aren't there's no rush to get you in the second or third.

Not to mention the absolutely abysmal results recently for 2nd - 3rd round quarterbacks. A few data points doesn't make a trend, but I do think that NFL decision makers are susceptible to that kind of thinking.

All that aside, Rattler was about a fifth round talent, maybe 4th, in any case.

# ? Apr 29, 2024 22:34

Kevino07: Oct 16, 2008

kiimo posted:

Scared me so I went back and checked and Chiefs first three picks were 20, 21 and 21. Not foolin Veach with that Covid Age Trap

ignore that tight end being 23

Makes sense - Brett Veach and Andrew Berry are the DiCaprios of the NFL. The Browns managed to get a 20 year old as their first pick in the second round.

Wiley being older is fine though. He's a former QB. The Chiefs love a pass catcher who's a former QB

# ? Apr 29, 2024 23:20

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

https://twitter.com/ArifHasanNFL/status/1785013671552540956

lmao all these dudes are such easy marks.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 01:27

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Article had some "wtf" moments but was a cool insight into the drafting process nonetheless. At least they weren't reading tea leaves though I'm not sure that's worse.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:13

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

3 DONG HORSE posted:

Article had some "wtf" moments but was a cool insight into the drafting process nonetheless. At least they weren't reading tea leaves though I'm not sure that's worse.

Yeah I found it pretty interesting, to see how these teams convince themselves about certain guys. Much of it being EXTREMELY unscientific.

That being said what is with that formatting? There's like 5 - 10 line breaks between each paragraph

# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:28

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Play posted:

Yeah I found it pretty interesting, to see how these teams convince themselves about certain guys. Much of it being EXTREMELY unscientific.

That being said what is with that formatting? There's like 5 - 10 line breaks between each paragraph

My guess is ads but I'm not gonna turn off ad block to find out .

# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:48

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

I still don't hate Atlanta's logic is taking a quarterback at 8. I do question taking one nearly as old as Cousins.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 03:25

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

has anyone asked ryan pace what kind of car penix drives

# ? Apr 30, 2024 04:12

A Sneaker Broker: Feb 14, 2020; Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot

Sataere posted:

I still don't hate Atlanta's logic is taking a quarterback at 8. I do question taking one nearly as old as Cousins.

Personally, I would've taken JJ McCarthy if that were the logic. I get it, kind of.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 05:20

Pron on VHS: Nov 14, 2005; Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

it's good Bo Nix had football related stuff in his bag instead of say, a movie theater box of Milk Duds and a Glock.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 14:31

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Pron on VHS posted:

it's good Bo Nix had football related stuff in his bag instead of say, a movie theater box of Milk Duds and a Glock.

on the other hand, he could've had weird sex stuff and a lot of dollar bills. I'd give him high marks for that.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 14:37

Forrest on Fire: Nov 23, 2012

Pron on VHS posted:

it's good Bo Nix had football related stuff in his bag instead of say, a movie theater box of Milk Duds and a Glock.

If Bo Nix had taken out a shotgun and a pistol, Payton would've argued it increased the potential formations for the offense

# ? Apr 30, 2024 14:42

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Imagine he brought out a CD "I call this my Nixtape, wanna listen?"

# ? Apr 30, 2024 15:10

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

I was wondering how much Sean Payton would've hated it if Nix had brought a book along to read on the plane.

A book not related to football. Just for reading enjoyment

# ? Apr 30, 2024 16:02

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

A Sneaker Broker posted:

Personally, I would've taken JJ McCarthy if that were the logic. I get it, kind of.

Same. I think if the pick was JJM, they'd have a lot less criticism. Of course, JJM refused to work out for them, so that's it's own problem.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 16:18

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

HUGE grade
Raging grade

https://x.com/ArifHasanNFL/status/1785014200454222324

# ? Apr 30, 2024 18:08

Docjowles: Apr 9, 2009

Maybe the biggest grade ever, many people are saying so. Scouts came to Mickey, strong scouts straight out of central casting, with tears in their eyes, saying thank you sir for being brave enough to have such a huge grade on Patrick Mahomes.

lol if it came out that my GM had correctly identified what Mahomes would become but couldn�t be assed to trade up one spot he wouldn�t be my GM anymore.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 18:24

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

The Saints missing out on Mahomes isn't new information at all. We've known that since shortly after he was picked 10. They traded up to 10 for a reason too

# ? Apr 30, 2024 18:57

Fat Jesus: Jul 13, 2011; to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2023

kiimo posted:

The Saints missing out on Mahomes isn't new information at all. We've known that since shortly after he was picked 10. They traded up to 10 for a reason too

We broke that man, now he's drafting wild QB's he don't need.

# ? Apr 30, 2024 20:40

Hizawk: Jun 18, 2004; High on the Lions.

Docjowles posted:

Maybe the biggest grade ever, many people are saying so. Scouts came to Mickey, strong scouts straight out of central casting, with tears in their eyes, saying thank you sir for being brave enough to have such a huge grade on Patrick Mahomes.

lol if it came out that my GM had correctly identified what Mahomes would become but couldn’t be assed to trade up one spot he wouldn’t be my GM anymore.

I think this is what makes Howie Rosman and Brad Holmes good GMs.

They believe their board, and Will do whatever it takes to get it.

# ? May 1, 2024 01:23

Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

kiimo posted:

The Saints missing out on Mahomes isn't new information at all. We've known that since shortly after he was picked 10. They traded up to 10 for a reason too

We honestly did need Lattimore at the time but yeah if we had known was going to be Patrick Mahomes well we should�ve jumped up to 9.

But if that�s the case Chicago would�ve picked him up at 2.

# ? May 1, 2024 17:52

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

I'd say since Howie took over in 2010 the Eagles have had more bad drafts than good. People like to crown him for Davis slipping to him but the Cowboys reap on that far more.

# ? May 1, 2024 18:00

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Howie seems like one of the biggest 'chalk' drafters in the league. Over the past few years like 80% of his day 1 and day 2 picks have exactly matched the consensus big board. Big time believer in the wisdom of the crowd I suppose

# ? May 1, 2024 20:57

Kalli: Jun 2, 2001

Howie just likes to talk to people and he's actually the one source for every single draftnik's leaks.

# ? May 1, 2024 20:59

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# ? May 23, 2024 15:58

IcePhoenix: Sep 18, 2005; Take me to your Shida

Doltos posted:

I'd say since Howie took over in 2010 the Eagles have had more bad drafts than good. People like to crown him for Davis slipping to him but the Cowboys reap on that far more.

Daltos this isn't really related to anything but I tracked down the VoD of your draft twitch stream to listen to your reactions in bits and pieces between projects at work and dude you need to get that voice on the radio

Also your Bo Nix stuff had me rolling when you couldn't find any good clips while trying to list his positives.

# ? May 1, 2024 21:01

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > The 2024 NFL Draft Thread - Draft Good Players With High Picks

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