USCE 2024: Macklemore Is The New Michael Moore

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2024: Macklemore Is The New Michael Moore

PhazonLink: Jul 17, 2010

MixMasterMalaria posted:

40 million dollars, glad to know the we're ready to commit the opening weekend box office of the failed Aquaman sequel to handling an existential crisis.

somewhat related, reminds me of anti science spending arugments, even from an increasing number of non regressives "derrrr why are we wasting money on NASA,we should spend that money BLANK"

# ? May 2, 2024 03:56

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 20:25

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

Those are also polls out before Trump is even the official candidate. There's also polls of Biden being a head. They don't matter either, because it's still too far out for polls to have any real predictive power.

# ? May 2, 2024 04:03

MixMasterMalaria: Jul 26, 2007

PhazonLink posted:

somewhat related, reminds me of anti science spending arugments, even from an increasing number of non regressives "derrrr why are we wasting money on NASA,we should spend that money BLANK"

Eager Scientist: I'm at a public university doing important research on the biology of wuchereria bancrofti which could lead to novel treatments greatly reducing the disease burden of helminth infections around the world!

Politician: So you're saying you want to to spend TAX DOLLARS on worms?! When our veterans are struggling with homelessness?!

# ? May 2, 2024 04:09

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Stringent posted:

After an uncritical show of Eric Adam's self-admittedly baseless accusations of outside agitators being the source of unrest, there is this monologue:

This is apparently who Adams was referencing:

quote:

The 63-Year-Old Career Activist Among the Protesters at Columbia

Videos show Lisa Fithian, whom the police called a �professional agitator,� working alongside protesters who stormed Hamilton Hall.

Among the throng of Columbia University student protesters gathered outside Hamilton Hall on campus early Tuesday morning was a gray-haired woman in her 60s.

In a video captured by The New York Times, the protesters can be seen trying to push their way toward the building as the woman � decades older than the crowd � pleads with two young counterprotesters trying to block them from barricading the occupied building.

�This is ridiculous,� the woman says, as the men stand with their backs against the doors, apparently trying to keep protesters away from the building. �We�re trying to end a genocide in Gaza.�

The woman at the center of this encounter on the night protesters stormed and then occupied the building was Lisa Fithian, a longtime activist and trainer for left-wing protesters whom the Police Department would later publicly describe as a �confirmed professional agitator.�

Ms. Fithian, 63, was not at Columbia when the police arrived on Tuesday night and made dozens of arrests. She had returned to the home where she was staying in New York, she said in an interview Tuesday night.

As pro-Palestinian protests have spread to campuses across the country, the movement has been heralded by supporters as a student-driven campaign opposing the Israeli offensive in Gaza. But some law enforcement officials and university officials have suggested that the demonstrations have been taken over by people with no ties to the colleges where encampments have sprung up.

On Tuesday evening, as the police raided the Columbia encampment, Ms. Fithian found herself at the center of that dispute.

Ms. Fithian said videos and photos of her on campus were being misinterpreted by the police and �right-wing� critics.

��Oh, the terrorist, the professional agitator,�� Ms. Fithian said. �This has happened so many times in my life. They love to hate me.�

At a news conference on Tuesday before the arrests, Mayor Eric Adams said the pro-Palestinian demonstration at Columbia has been �co-opted by professional outside agitators� who have no affiliation with the institution.

�They are not here to promote peace or unity or allow a peaceful displaying of one�s voice,� Mr. Adams said. �They are here to create discord and divisiveness.�

It was a sentiment echoed by Nemat Shafik, the Columbia president, in a letter asking the Police Department to enter the campus and clear protesters from Hamilton Hall and the encampment occupied by demonstrators for about two weeks.

�We believe that while the group who broke into the building includes students, it is led by individuals who are not affiliated with the university,� Ms. Shafik wrote to the police on Tuesday. �The individuals who have occupied Hamilton Hall have vandalized university property and are trespassing.�

City and university officials have not said how many of the protesters arrested were not affiliated with the school.

Ms. Fithian disputed the idea that she was in any way organizing the protests.

�Absolutely not,� she said. �It�s actually quite absurd. I know with these videos, it�s hard for some people to believe that. But it�s the truth.�

Ms. Fithian said she came to Columbia on Monday afternoon to conduct a training session with about 30 students activists focused on safety and the general logistics of a protest. She said she had been invited informally by someone � she said she did not catch their name � on Sunday during a visit to City College of New York. She said she was not paid.

Ms. Fithian has had a long public history of involvement with political protests.

She is the author of a 2019 book called �Shut it Down,� a guide to strategic civil disobedience and has worked as a political organizer for decades, supporting political demonstrations across the country, including Occupy Wall Street in 2011; the protests in Ferguson, Mo., that followed the fatal shooting of Michael Brown by the local police in 2014; and the antiracism movement after the death of George Floyd in 2020.

She has also run workshops for other activists. Unions and activist groups have paid her $300 a day to run demonstrations and teach their members tactics for taking over the streets, according to a 2012 profile in Mother Jones magazine.

�The power we have is really in the streets,� she said at a virtual book event in 2020. �And that it�s the popular mandate that we force in the streets that�s going to force the politicians to do the right thing.�

She continued: �We have to be willing to create a crisis. We have to be willing to engage in social disruption and create crisis for the people in power who are creating harm.�

Ms Fithian said in an interview that she had remained around the campus as she felt tension rising Monday evening. By the time of the confrontation at the door, some protesters had already entered the building. As another group of protesters was trying to drag a picnic table to barricade one of Hamilton Hall�s doors, the two young men who opposed the demonstration tried to prevent their efforts.

The counterprotesters appeared on Fox News on Wednesday morning and identified themselves as Rory Wilson and Charles Beck, both Columbia students.

Mr. Wilson can be heard on the video captured by The New York Times describing his reason for showing up at the demonstration. �I think this is completely inappropriate, and I�m peacefully protesting this protest,� he says.

Ms. Fithian said she involved herself in an effort to �keep things as safe as possible.� She said she was encouraging the men to get out of the way because it was clear to her that they would not be able to stop the situation.

�Relax, relax, you�re not going to make them stop this,� she can be heard saying in the video.

She added in an interview, �It was along the lines of trying to be chill and talking to them in a rational way about, �Please, don�t be here.��

Videos from the scene also show Ms. Fithian later using a profanity to describe the counterprotesters, and insisting to them that �this is a historic moment.�

�Sometimes historic moments aren�t great,� one of them replied.

Ms. Fithian acknowledged she grew impatient with the students blocking the door and wondered if they might be working in tandem with a woman standing nearby who was filming the scene with a phone.

Ms. Fithian�s website notes that she is available for trainings, consultations and organizing projects. She is often described as a �protest consultant,� a label she rejected.

�It�s my life�s work,� she said on Tuesday. �Of course, if I can get paid for it, I want to. If it�s an organization bringing me in to train staff, of course I want to get paid. But if you�re talking about young people in the street who are throwing down, I don�t even want to take donations.�

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/nyregion/columbia-university-protest-consultant-lisa-fithian.html

# ? May 2, 2024 04:16

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Looks like the Brits may be the drivers down the pier onto the shore.

https://maritime-executive.com/article/uk-military-may-supply-the-drivers-for-the-maritime-aid-pier-in-gaza

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 05:03 on May 2, 2024

# ? May 2, 2024 04:54

small butter: Oct 8, 2011

koolkal posted:

2012.

Thanks for this. I somehow forgot about 2012.

koolkal posted:

So an election in the last 30 years where the party that did not control the House in the preceding midterms wins control of the House while the Presidential candidate in the same party loses?

That's a lot of stipulations! The "student loan debt forgiveness program for Pell Grant recipients who start a business that operates for three years in disadvantaged communities" of elections.

If that many qualifiers are needed for it to be unique, it doesn't seem like it's making a strong argument that it's particularly exceptional.

But the only qualifier you need here is "has a presidential nominee ever lost the election while his party gained in the House."

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

republicans lost 8 house seats in 2012 and thanks to gerrymandering and the vagaries of district by district results actually lost the total votes cast in all house races 47.7% to 48.8% to the dems. if the dems have a similar performance to the 2012 republican house they will definitely not regain the house

2012 seems to be the outlier because of how much of a shitshow 2010 was, how bad the maps were, and how long it took for Democrats to come out of that mess. They did, in fact, win the popular vote House margin and that's important here for the reasons above.

Gnumonic posted:

Well it's great that it seems that way to you, but your point here amounts to: "I have faith that all the polls are wrong!" Which is, in effect, the same sort of copium-huffing that prevailed in GOP circles in 2020.

In the real world, Biden is currently behind Trump in every swing state, has the lowest average job approval on record, and is doing so poorly among young voters that, depending on the likely voter screen used, might be losing that demographic to Trump. It doesn't seem very likely that recent events will cause him to recover the youth vote.

Aside from the polls, I think you're straight up delusional if you believe that Biden isn't facing a massive enthusiasm problem that is going to result in diminished democratic voter turnout. While it's true that most voters don't prioritize foreign policy as their most important issue, voters (especially younger voters & especially democrats) tend to place a lot of importance on a candidate sharing their values. So (e.g.) even if Gaza isn't someone's most important issue, Biden's pro-genocide position very clearly marks a massive difference between his values and the values of democratic base voters. It's hard to get enthusiastic about "protecting democracy" when "democracy" seems to mean "rich pro-Israel donors get to overrule the position of a majority of democratic voters".

And of course, even if you ignore the genocide, more voters trust Trump on the economy. While I realize that this thread has a habit of scolding the plebs for not understanding that the economic data actually says things are amazing - and while y'all may be technically correct, for all that matters - it's pretty doubtful that's a winning message.

I guess you could be right, but the inference from "democrats overperformed since 2018" to "Joe Biden surely will overperform in 2024" is incredibly weak. Joe Biden was only on the ballot for one of those elections, and there are strong intuitive and objective reasons to believe that the possibility of Biden overperforming the polls is a lot lower than you're claiming.

1. Biden is most likely facing an enthusiasm problem, which is why he's going to win by 7 points instead of 10 like he should against Trump.

2. "In the real world," Republicans have arguably lost every single election since Trump's election except for 2021, and Trump is an election LOSER.

3. Most House Democrats are in lock-step with Biden on Gaza, the economy, etc. etc. etc., and yet they keep mopping the Republicans.

4. Biden may have the lowest average job approval on record, but Trump also has the most indictments on record, and is the only indicted former President on record. So, either Biden wins or Trump wins, and someone is going to set a new record here, and it's up to you what you think is more likely. Personally, I think that the quadruple-indicted loser who lost every election since 2017 is going to lose to the guy with bad approval numbers.

5. Republicans are begging for money while being bled dry by Trump's trials. Trump will get buried come November.

6. Some of these polls, like the NYT poll from a month or so ago, showed Trump tying Biden with women. Post Dobbs. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that there's an issue here.

Look, when I saw Abigail Spanberger keep her House seat in 2022 after her election was called early, I knew that the Republicans were toast that night. Biden got more votes than Trump in the PA primary, as did Democrats any way you slice it in an uncontested election with an incumbent President, and Haley got 17% after she dropped out a month prior. Trump is toast, toast, toast.

Trump is loving toast.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

small butter fucked around with this message at 05:00 on May 2, 2024

# ? May 2, 2024 04:56

selec: Sep 6, 2003

Feels like we keep seeing these synecdoches:

https://x.com/latimes/status/1785829103167275103

One definition of fascism is the tools of colonial oppression being visited on the people in the metropole. We're just getting warmed up.

# ? May 2, 2024 05:01

PhazonLink: Jul 17, 2010

the outsiders thing is especially bullshit, like what are protesters suppose to rediscover / reinvent effective protest strats all by themseleves?, like apparently some of the recent union stuff over the last few years also has this complaint. an outsider prolabor "consultant" is helping workers do stuff.

# ? May 2, 2024 05:11

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Gnumonic posted:

So... you got any objective data or evidence to back any of that up? Or is it just an imaginary story of your own?

You might have missed it in the post you quoted, but special elections are evidence. Yesterday there was a special election for a congressional district in New York and the Democrat's winning margin was 8% more than 2022.

I don't feel like finding it in the specific polls you linked, but if you look at the issue questions in polls where young voters are unusually pro Trump, the most important issues are typically Republican issues like the economy and immigration. That intuitively makes sense because those are issues Republican voters prioritize. Democrats (especially young Democrats) are more sympathetic to Palestinians, so Biden would probably be winning a Palestine sympathizing cohort by a larger margin.

Republicans are broke

Haley got 17% in the PA primary

Ultimately there isn't enough evidence to make a prediction beyond "it's about 50:50". The weird thing is seeing massive dumps of evidence that allegedly proves Trump will win, that completely ignore how Trump is on trial in multiple cases, the GOP is broke, Trump is losing double digit percentages of the vote in closed swing state primaries to a protest candidate who dropped out ages ago and refused to endorse him, etc. Polls before the primary is even over aren't that predictive and Trump's lead in the polling average is very small.

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 05:48 on May 2, 2024

# ? May 2, 2024 05:45

koolkal: Oct 21, 2008; this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs

I do find it a bit weird that people are saying polls 6 months out mean little or nothing at all but then are posting even more bizarre info like how much money the party has.

Do people actually think something like the number of indictments a candidate is under is a BETTER predictor of the election, 6 months out, than actual polls asking people how they will vote?

Like, if you're going to claim the polls tell us nothing and it's impossible to predict, you should probably stick with that whole "impossible to predict" aspect, not start posting random nonsense information and explaining how it predicts the election.

koolkal fucked around with this message at 06:27 on May 2, 2024

# ? May 2, 2024 06:24

socialsecurity: Aug 30, 2003; Can't post for 21 hours!

koolkal posted:

I do find it a bit weird that people are saying polls 6 months out mean little or nothing at all but then are posting even more bizarre info like how much money the party has.

Do people actually think something like the number of indictments a candidate is under is a BETTER predictor of the election, 6 months out, than actual polls asking people how they will vote?

Did you believe the polls when they had Hillary winning? Or is it only when the polls say things you agree with that you care so much about them?

# ? May 2, 2024 06:26

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

koolkal posted:

I do find it a bit weird that people are saying polls 6 months out mean little or nothing at all but then are posting even more bizarre info like how much money the party has.

Financial statements are real and polling isn't

# ? May 2, 2024 06:31

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

koolkal posted:

I do find it a bit weird that people are saying polls 6 months out mean little or nothing at all but then are posting even more bizarre info like how much money the party has.

Do people actually think something like the number of indictments a candidate is under is a BETTER predictor of the election, 6 months out, than actual polls asking people how they will vote?

Like, if you're going to claim the polls tell us nothing and it's impossible to predict, you should probably stick with that whole "impossible to predict" aspect, not start posting random nonsense information and explaining how it predicts the election.

It isn't true that the polls tell us nothing. They tell us the election is a tossup. That's all that polls in April can tell you. That doesn't mean pollsters are wasting their time, because they do polls for other reasons besides knowing with absolute certainty, six months in advance, who will win.

But if your argument is that indictments and fundraising don't matter because polls are more real, it should follow that polls don't matter because Democratic overperformances in special elections and Haley votes in Republican primaries are more real (those are real people casting votes in a real election)

# ? May 2, 2024 06:58

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Minor update/correction regarding the U.S. government's support for developing new antibiotics; there is more to it than the $40 million announced in 2022. In September 2023, HHS announced:
ARPA-H award aims to combat antimicrobial resistance

arpa-h.gov | 2023-09-27T15:49:13+00:00 posted:

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), through the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) today announced a new project to combat the growing threat of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Bacterial infections remain a leading cause of death worldwide and more than 2.8 million antimicrobial-resistant infections occur each year in the United States, causing more than 35,000 deaths. These infections also further prolong hospital stays and increase health care costs.

To combat this crisis, ARPA-H is funding through its Open Broad Agency Announcement (Open BAA) the Defeating Antibiotic Resistance through Transformative Solutions (DARTS) project. DARTS focuses on developing a set of diagnostic and experimental platforms that that can reveal insights into how antibiotic resistance starts, search for new antibiotics, and rapidly identify the right antibiotic to prescribe for a particular infection in real time.

�Antibiotic resistance is an urgent and growing threat, and we do not currently have the tools we need to combat it. We must combine better stewardship of antibiotics with novel technologies in order to save lives � exactly what this award will do,� said HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra.

This initiative complements activities funded by other federal research and development agencies by taking a unique approach to develop an ultra-high-speed screening system that analyzes billions of bacteria individually. The technology, if successful, could rapidly identify bacteria that can evade antibiotic treatments and quickly find the right compound to treat a specific infection. The goal is to create a platform that can be easily employed at any hospital or clinic and would advance U.S. government efforts on surveillance and stewardship.

�Quickly identifying the right antibiotic empowers health care providers to fight off superbugs and return patients to health,� said ARPA-H Program Manager Paul Sheehan, Ph.D. �With DARTS, we aim to develop a compact diagnostic tool for the most problematic bacterial strains.�

DARTS will aid in the stewardship of current antibiotics helping to ensure that patients get the antibiotics they need and not ones that they do not need. This is a critical component of the strategy to preserve the effectiveness of antibiotics over time and slow resistance to these drugs. The DARTS project further aims to serve as a rapid platform for the discovery of new antibiotics from natural samples. Harvard Medical School in Cambridge, Massachusetts leads the multi-institution research team under an agreement of up to $104 million.

The ARPA-H Open BAA seeks transformative ideas for health research or technology breakthroughs. Continued support of each award is contingent on projects meeting aggressive milestones. The Open BAA began accepting abstracts in March 2023 and is open until March 2024. Projects will be funded on a rolling basis. To learn more about projects as they are awarded, visit the awardee page.

MRSA is really, really bad and it actually can affect people who are young and healthy to a surprising degree and I've seen it. I don't have a lot of trust for Boeing but I think the most recent whistleblower death is not as suspicious even if it's interesting to think about.

mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 08:13 on May 2, 2024

# ? May 2, 2024 08:10

Jon Pod Van Damm: Apr 6, 2009; THE POSSESSION OF WEALTH IS IN AND OF ITSELF A SIGN OF POOR VIRTUE. AS SUCH:
1 NEVER TRUST ANY RICH PERSON.
2 NEVER HIRE ANY RICH PERSON.
BY RULE 1, IT IS APPROPRIATE TO PRESUME THAT ALL DEGREES AND CREDENTIALS HELD BY A WEALTHY PERSON ARE FRAUDULENT. THIS JUSTIFIES RULE 2--RULE 1 NEEDS NO JUSTIFIC

The Democratic Party leadership are not very bright are they.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? May 2, 2024 08:24

Acebuckeye13: Nov 2, 2010; Against All Tyrants; Ultra Carp

With slightly over six months to go until the election, the predictive power of polls isn't zero but it's also not incredibly high. Hell, you can find polls from May 2004 that show Kerry up 6 points nationally, and even a handful of outliers from 2008 that showed McCain leading as late as September. And of course that's before you get into some legitimate issues with many recent polls, which are facing increasing difficulty in getting respondents now that only insane people (like me) answer calls from unknown numbers. Really, all the polls can tell us right now is that if the election was held today, it would be a tight race and Trump might have an advantage - but obviously, the election is not being held today, and a lot can change within six months, for better and for worse.

# ? May 2, 2024 08:34

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

koolkal posted:

I do find it a bit weird that people are saying polls 6 months out mean little or nothing at all but then are posting even more bizarre info like how much money the party has.

Do people actually think something like the number of indictments a candidate is under is a BETTER predictor of the election, 6 months out, than actual polls asking people how they will vote?

Like, if you're going to claim the polls tell us nothing and it's impossible to predict, you should probably stick with that whole "impossible to predict" aspect, not start posting random nonsense information and explaining how it predicts the election.

"Have no predictive power" is different from "have no use". The problem is the conventions haven't even happened yet, and the candidates aren't locked in. There's a ton of time for people to change their minds one way or another.

# ? May 2, 2024 08:37

Acebuckeye13: Nov 2, 2010; Against All Tyrants; Ultra Carp

Failed Imagineer posted:

Financial statements are real and polling isn't

To add onto this, in the post I just made I emphasized that the election is six months away - and while that makes the polls today meaningless, the amount of cash the campaign has on hand today can make a major difference in that amount of time. Hell, just for starters Biden is opening up a huge number of campaign offices across crucial swing states, employing campaign workers to knock on doors, register voters, and get a head start on organizing volunteers. Meanwhile, Trump's campaign has lagged significantly behind in that regard, and while he'll catch up eventually every day that passes is a day he's not getting back - and money spent now is much more effective than money spend on November 4th, when most voters' minds have already been made up.

If I were Biden, I'd be concerned about the poll numbers but I'd be confident about my advantages elsewhere. Hell, if nothing else, the fact that Trump has a strong chance of getting a fraud conviction within the next six months isn't going to do anything to help the Republicans, especially as the election nears and more undecided voters begin tuning into politics again.

# ? May 2, 2024 08:42

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Another Neanderthal that looks exactly like MTG just dropped

https://twitter.com/archeohistories/status/1785919799517925573?t=KmvXe4AG0TyUbVkNqu8P_A&s=19

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? May 2, 2024 09:31

exquisite tea: Apr 21, 2007; Carly shook her glass, willing the ice to melt. "You still haven't told me what the mission is."

She leaned forward. "We are going to assassinate the bad men of Hollywood."

I think a lot of people are worried about the polling because the last two general elections showed Trump well behind for most of the race before overperforming on Election Day, and so intuitively, anything that shows him with an actual lead six months out is rather troubling if you naturally expect the same thing to happen again. It's also just not one poll, but a steady combination of national and state-based averages across a number of firms that show him with a slight but clear advantage. This gradual shift toward Trump also predates all the business with Gaza, beginning somewhere around August 2023 for reasons I still have no rational explanation for, so you can't say the I/P conflict even is the deciding factor here although it certainly doesn't help. Biden is unpopular, the economy is uncertain and the national mood is shall we say not great right now, which anyone can sense just by existing in the United States. All these conditions tend to favor the challenger, absurd and transparently corrupt as that challenger might be. If you can imagine Biden losing 30,000 votes in Wisconsin, then you can imagine him losing the presidential race in 2024. Not trying to be negative, just trying to think about things logically as I see them.

The one thing I can't fully square away is how Democrats keep doing so well in special elections. If all you followed were those and the primary results then you probably wouldn't even think Biden was in that much trouble, because Democrats have overperformed in the interim since 2022 and for all the posturing about voting Uncommitted it didn't really appear to hurt Biden at all in the states where such a thing would matter. So that gives me a flicker of optimism that these LV models are maybe inaccurate for the conditions of 2024. But I also think that having Trump on the ticket brings out a lot of people who only come out to vote for Trump and stay home when he's not on the ballot. Those people are hard to nail down and might ultimately swing the House race one way or the other. I think many people are just fearful that the general election seems so uncertain when it really shouldn't be.

# ? May 2, 2024 12:36

Aztec Galactus: Sep 12, 2002

Maybe special elections don't have anything to do with the presidential election? Maybe the fact that Trump is a cult leader means that traditional political interpretations don't apply? It's so strange that we're looking at data with a sample size of like 10 and treating it as useful.

# ? May 2, 2024 13:08

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

exquisite tea posted:

I think a lot of people are worried about the polling because the last two general elections showed Trump well behind for most of the race before overperforming on Election Day,. . . .

The one thing I can't fully square away is how Democrats keep doing so well in special elections.

quote:

Using the eight registered voter polls that Real Clear Politics used on Monday, Biden leads Trump by 0.5 percentage points � 44 percent to 43.5 percent � in a two-way race. Biden also leads in the five polls tracking a five-way race: 40.8 percent to 40.2 percent.

However, the situation is very different in a likely voter poll average. In the three likely voter polls of a two-way race, Trump leads 47.3 percent to 44.7 percent. In the four polls of a five-way race, Trump�s lead grows to 43.7 percent to 40 percent.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4618327-its-not-just-biden-versus-trump-but-registered-versus-likely-voters/

I admit I cannot comprehend how biden has greater "unfavorables" than Trump does, though.

quote:

According to Real Clear Politics average of national polling, Biden trails Trump 44.2 percent to 44.5 percent in a two-way rematch, while his unfavorable rating is 55.1 percent to Trump�s 53.7 percent. In such adverse circumstances, November will be about getting supporters to the polls: Here Biden�s disadvantage looms larger still.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4618327-its-not-just-biden-versus-trump-but-registered-versus-likely-voters/

# ? May 2, 2024 13:16

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

So is a lot of this down to not being able to get accurate polling due to people not answering their mobile phones?

I do think Trump somehow drives a lot of people to vote who wouldn't otherwise vote.

This is also my own weird bubble, but I also feel like I don't see much of Trump outside of the headlines of stories involving him. LIke Campaign Trump has not had the chance yet of opening his mouth and alienating or scaring people. I wonder how much the media, who totally helped him by giving him free publicity so his ideology could catch fire nationwide in 2016 are now helping him in 2024 by not covering him much at all.

Overall, I do think conditions would be tricky for any challenger. Interest rates are going to remain (from a recent historical standpoint) high and supply-side inflationary factors are not great either, so vibes about the economy are going to remain challenging for any incumbent to overcome too.

Aztec Galactus posted:

Maybe special elections don't have anything to do with the presidential election? Maybe the fact that Trump is a cult leader means that traditional political interpretations don't apply? It's so strange that we're looking at data with a sample size of like 10 and treating it as useful.

I think you have to be pretty engaged or enthusiastic to vote in a special election compared to most voters, so there is still something useful in seeing the data from them, especially if it's a tricky district.

# ? May 2, 2024 13:41

single-mode fiber: Dec 30, 2012

Have to remember too that, since 2016 (i.e. the last time Trump didn't have the incumbency advantage), about 20 million boomers have died. That's a meaningful number of Republican-skewing votes gone. Around covid specifically, most of the 1 million who died from it did so in 2021-22, when vaccines were free and available everywhere. I don't know this, but I'm going to guess, that the covid deaths even more strongly skew Republican than the generic boomer. The bulk of those people would've still been alive to vote for Trump in 2020, but, thanks to their vaccine refusal, they will not be voting for him in 2024.

# ? May 2, 2024 14:07

small butter: Oct 8, 2011

single-mode fiber posted:

I don't know this, but I'm going to guess, that the covid deaths even more strongly skew Republican than the generic boomer. The bulk of those people would've still been alive to vote for Trump in 2020, but, thanks to their vaccine refusal, they will not be voting for him in 2024.

Your guess is correct post-vaccines, though probably more liberal boomers died in 2020 given where the virus was hitting hard then.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189939229/covid-deaths-democrats-republicans-gap-study

# ? May 2, 2024 14:12

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I admit I cannot comprehend how biden has greater "unfavorables" than Trump does, though.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4618327-its-not-just-biden-versus-trump-but-registered-versus-likely-voters/

The sitting president usually has high unfavorable ratings, every president gets a new car bump and then slowly ticks down as everything doesn't change immediately.

Biden has a fragile (if statistically strong) economy but it comes with high inflation and a lot of structural problems that have not been addressed that are manifesting. I also think Biden's leadership style also has something to do with this as he isn't out in front a lot, so comes across as not being active.

# ? May 2, 2024 14:33

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

small butter posted:

Your guess is correct post-vaccines, though probably more liberal boomers died in 2020 given where the virus was hitting hard then.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189939229/covid-deaths-democrats-republicans-gap-study

People in Trump counties had 2x+ more covid deaths than Biden counties. I think that generally these deaths were too distriubuted to cause huge swings in vote outcome, but I have no doubt that anti-vaxxerism is why Dems won the AZ AG race, for example.

# ? May 2, 2024 14:42

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Mooseontheloose posted:

The sitting president usually has high unfavorable ratings, every president gets a new car bump and then slowly ticks down as everything doesn't change immediately.
.

Sure, but .. . Trump is literally under indictment for 96 felonies

# ? May 2, 2024 15:40

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Sure, but .. . Trump is literally under indictment for 96 felonies

There's a whole pervasive media apparatus dedicated to convincing people that those are all fake charges.

# ? May 2, 2024 15:46

Nervous: Jan 25, 2005; Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Sure, but .. . Trump is literally under indictment for 96 felonies

That's 96 presumptions of innocence for right now. The most presumed innocent president ever!

# ? May 2, 2024 15:56

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Acebuckeye13 posted:

With slightly over six months to go until the election, the predictive power of polls isn't zero but it's also not incredibly high. Hell, you can find polls from May 2004 that show Kerry up 6 points nationally, and even a handful of outliers from 2008 that showed McCain leading as late as September. And of course that's before you get into some legitimate issues with many recent polls, which are facing increasing difficulty in getting respondents now that only insane people (like me) answer calls from unknown numbers.

A lot of pollsters are using online surveys these days; they're easier for respondents to answer and easier to sort & filter for representative sampling.

I signed up to fill out surveys from yougov bc I went there looking for a particular poll & saw that they were recruiting for their online samples. They send me emails a few times each week with links to a poll but it's up to me whether I take the poll or not.

If you want your political views & choices reflected in surveys & polls, you can sign up for yougov or other pollsters who run online surveys. It's slightly easier to make your voice heard & your opinions reflected when you're one of a few thousand instead of during an election when you're one of tens of millions.

# ? May 2, 2024 15:59

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

Wasn't it 91 not too long ago? Did he commit 5 more crimes I didn't hear about?

# ? May 2, 2024 15:59

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

haveblue posted:

Wasn't it 91 not too long ago? Did he commit 4 more crimes I didn't hear about?

who keeps track of these things

Eric Cantonese posted:

There's a whole pervasive media apparatus dedicated to convincing people that those are all fake charges.

You'd think the fracturing of the mass culture would mean the fox news cinematic universe would shrink. Rush is dead; Fox's audience is all over 70 now. Who the hell is listening to all that pro trump media, and how are they a majority?

Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 16:03 on May 2, 2024

# ? May 2, 2024 16:00

PharmerBoy: Jul 21, 2008

You know he's committed crimes you've never heard about.

# ? May 2, 2024 16:02

Angry_Ed: Mar 30, 2010; Grimey Drawer

PharmerBoy posted:

You know he's committed crimes you've never heard about.

Still banking on "sold secrets to the KSA/Russia/China" (pick one/all)

# ? May 2, 2024 16:02

Dante80: Mar 23, 2015

Nucleic Acids posted:

Something tells me this is going to pass, and will be used by university administrators and legal authorties to further crackdown on protests.

Edit: Of loving Course

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1785775817353507053

133 Democrats voted yay. Good to see the party is still worse than useless.

One of the reasons I'm urging my American relatives to not vote for the Democratic Party (or the Republican Party, for that matter) in the next elections.
Truly despicable.

# ? May 2, 2024 16:10

PharmerBoy: Jul 21, 2008

Its electorialism bait, don't take it.

# ? May 2, 2024 16:11

GlyphGryph: Jun 23, 2013; Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Dante80 posted:

One of the reasons I'm urging my American relatives to not vote for the Democratic Party (or the Republican Party, for that matter) in the next elections

If you want to talk about that there's a thread for it.

Here you go: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4054234&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=7

# ? May 2, 2024 16:24

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

What's the anticipated timeline & outcome of a Senate vote on the "Antisemitism Awareness Act" and has Biden taken a stance on whether he'd sign it if it passes the Senate?

eta: The Forward story says that Dem leadership is opposed & wants their own bill, the Countering Antisemitism Act, to replace it.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 16:32 on May 2, 2024

# ? May 2, 2024 16:30

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 20:25

ex post facho: Oct 25, 2007

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I admit I cannot comprehend how biden has greater "unfavorables" than Trump does, though.

I'll suggest one theory; he's funding and supporting and providing cover for an active, ongoing, highly visible genocide, when a plurality of Democrats are opposed to the way he is handling the response to Israel's genocide.

# ? May 2, 2024 16:35

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