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Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Bort and ARob making each other look good* that one time was a very weird year

*ok we are grading on a curve here he still led the league in picks

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D-LINK
Oct 1, 2007

I was talking to peachy Peach about kissy Kiss. He bought me a soda.

kiimo posted:

believing this is pure kool-aid. I'd put him at like...5 in the free agent class. You sure paid him like one though

Tyler Boyd is slightly better but way more mentally tough than Diontae Johnson

AAAAA! Real Muenster
Jul 12, 2008

My QB is also named Bort

Silly Burrito posted:

:) no worries, I was just messing with you
:v: I wasnt sure because I feel like I've seen some Saints posters get fed up with people talking about Mickey's cap management

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
I'm not sure Allen Robinson was ever that much more than somewhat above average, it's just not that hard to get a thousand yard season if you're being force fed the ball all the time

I hated that signing for the Rams at the time and I think that was borne out

D-LINK posted:

Tyler Boyd is slightly better but way more mentally tough than Diontae Johnson

I was actually shocked that Boyd is only two years older than Diontae. I thought he must be at least four years older.

All things the same I think I'd take Diontae. I don't think we've really seen all he can do yet given the pacifists' row of quarterbacks the steelers have trotted out during his career.

Iodised QQ
Jul 23, 2004

Personally I'm really excited for the next 5 months of one on one position drill clips between 7th round picks and the endless debate on whether the match-up is "steel honing steel" or "two used car salesmen whose dads never quite got to own their own dealership so they're still trying the football thing"

Iodised QQ
Jul 23, 2004

The giants got me good with this last year but also tre hawkins is still ready to blow up in 2024 drat it

Shrimpy
May 18, 2004

Sir, I'm going to need to see your ticket.

Docjowles posted:

For the haters, apparently Nate Tice is leaving the Athletic for an undisclosed job elsewhere in media.

I am bummed by this because they had nice friendship chemistry.

Timby
Dec 23, 2006

Your mother!

Play posted:

I'm not sure Allen Robinson was ever that much more than somewhat above average, it's just not that hard to get a thousand yard season if you're being force fed the ball all the time

It is when you're trying to haul in passes from Mitch Trubisky in an offense called by Matt Nagy.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

:v: I wasnt sure because I feel like I've seen some Saints posters get fed up with people talking about Mickey's cap management

No way, I love Loomis doing all kinds of crazy crap.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Your 2021 1st round busts.

https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/status/1786169957140627756?s=46

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
Is Najee really a bust or is he just a RB

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



a neat cape posted:

Is Najee really a bust or is he just a RB

ETN got it. The 5th year option for him was like under $7m, so yeah, Najee's a bust sadly.

Great story, just a mid player.

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?
Bucs 2021 first rounder is one year older than Penix.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

a neat cape posted:

Is Najee really a bust or is he just a RB

The option was only like $6.5m. If your own team doesn’t think you’re worth a Tier 2 FA RB deal I’d say that’s pretty busty.

Android Apocalypse
Apr 28, 2009

The future is
AUTOMATED
and you are
OBSOLETE

Illegal Hen

It should be noted too that is the COVID-19 class.

Not saying it's an excuse but something to consider.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010



Toney was gonna sign for his 5th year option but the Chiefs tossed him the pen

Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002
I think Zaven can be saved

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Who the hell is Caleb Farley. Oh he’s played in like 10 total games for the Titans lol guess that’s why I’ve never heard of him

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

a neat cape posted:

Is Najee really a bust or is he just a RB

He sucks pretty bad when I've watched him play. His vision isn't Richardson levels bad but it's approaching it at times.




D-LINK posted:

Tyler Boyd is slightly better but way more mentally tough than Diontae Johnson

I'd be interested in your take on Diontae. One of my buddies is a steelers fan and he said "dudes always open, but has the worst concentration drops and they get worse when he get angry about not being targeted."

D-LINK
Oct 1, 2007

I was talking to peachy Peach about kissy Kiss. He bought me a soda.

BlindSite posted:

He sucks pretty bad when I've watched him play. His vision isn't Richardson levels bad but it's approaching it at times.

I'd be interested in your take on Diontae. One of my buddies is a steelers fan and he said "dudes always open, but has the worst concentration drops and they get worse when he get angry about not being targeted."

To be fair, the guy went from catching passes from a HoFer to Kenny Pickett, and the drop off from even washed-rear end Roethlisberger to Tittie Kisser and Tiny Hands was steep. He's an elite separator, and in fact, he is mostly always open, but he will run backwards and lose yardage in pursuit of YAC, or drop the easiest pass you have ever seen two plays after making a circus catch. He's really frustrating to watch, but he's still kind of productive

Rectal Placenta
Feb 25, 2011

Shrimpy posted:

I am bummed by this because they had nice friendship chemistry.

Every time I see his name I can't not just remember him as a Wisconsin backup scrub QB

Mystic Stylez
Dec 19, 2009


I care about football to the point of regularly posting about it on a dead comedy forum and I have absolutely no idea who Payton Turner and Jamin Davis are

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Mystic Stylez posted:

I care about football to the point of regularly posting about it on a dead comedy forum and I have absolutely no idea who Payton Turner and Jamin Davis are

:same:

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002

They wasted Luanne on Lucky!

She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!

Mystic Stylez posted:

Jamin Davis are

Pretty sure I saw that name on Pornhub.

sharknado slashfic
Jun 24, 2011

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

I wonder the average number of players each year that have their fifth year options declined. Probably not a thing I can easily look up.

Najee Harris is probably the bust that surprises me the most. No such thing as a safe draft pick.

Soul Glo
Aug 27, 2003

Just let it shine through

Docjowles posted:

Who the hell is Caleb Farley. Oh he’s played in like 10 total games for the Titans lol guess that’s why I’ve never heard of him

He had back problems/surgery before our lovely previous GM drafted him in the first. Then his mom died. Last year the house he owned where his dad was living literally exploded from a supposed gas leak.

Dude has had a rough go.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Mystic Stylez posted:

I care about football to the point of regularly posting about it on a dead comedy forum and I have absolutely no idea who Payton Turner and Jamin Davis are

Payton Turner was a defensive end that was regularly projected in the third round, but Sean Payton grabbed him in the first. He's been hurt pretty much all the time.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Silly Burrito posted:

Payton Turner was a defensive end that was regularly projected in the third round, but Sean Payton grabbed him in the first. He's been hurt pretty much all the time.

The Saints and over drafting defensive ends that spend half their time on IR and aren’t very good when they play. Name a more iconic pairing.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



fsif posted:

I wonder the average number of players each year that have their fifth year options declined. Probably not a thing I can easily look up.

Najee Harris is probably the bust that surprises me the most. No such thing as a safe draft pick.

Note that the 2020 CBA changed the rules from guaranteed for injury (aka not at all) to fully guaranteed, so the numbers should be way higher for declines from 2017 on.

Second note, I never want to hear about trading into the first for the 5th year option again, look at all those late 1st round declines, who loving cares.

For 2020 it looks like it was 14 straight declined, one extension that was basically the same thing, one ineligible due to a trade, one in prison and 3 guys cut, so 19/20 of 32

2: Chase Young
3: Jeff Okudah
8: Isaiah Simmons
9: C.J. Henderson
11: Mekhi Becton
12: Henry Ruggs
14: Javon Kinlaw
18: Austin Jackson
19: Damon Arnette
20: K'Lavon Chaisson
21: Jalen Reagor
23: Kenneth Murray
24: Cesar Ruiz
26: Jordan Love (doesn't really count)
27: Jordyn Brooks
28: Patrick Queen
29: Isaiah Wilson
30: Noah Igbinoghene
31: Jeff Gladney
32: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

2019: 13 declined / cut / whatever

4: Clelin Ferrell
6: Daniel Jones :v:
10: Devin Bush
15: Dwayne Haskins
18: Garrett Bradbury
22: Andre Dillard
24: Josh Jacobs
27: Jonathan Abram
28: Jerry Tillery
29: LJ Collier
30: Deandre Baker
31: Kaleb McGary
32: N'Keal Harry

2018: 10

10: Josh Rosen
19: Leighton Vander Esch
21: Billy Price
22: Rashaan Evans
25: Hayden Hurst
27: Rashaad Penny
28: Terrell Edmunds
29: Taven Bryan
30: Mike Hughes
31: Sony Michel

2017: 14

2: Mitchell Trubisky
3: Solomon Thomas
4: Leonard Fournette
5: Corey Davis
9: John Ross
13: Haason Reddick
15: Malik Hooker
20: Garett Bolles
21: Jarrad Davis
22: Charles Harris
24: Gareon Conley
26: Takkarist McKinley
28: Taco Charlton
31: Reuben Foster

2016: 14!

8: Jack Conklin
10: Eli Apple
14: Karl Joseph
15: Corey Coleman
19: Shaq Lawson
20: Darron Lee
22: Josh Doctson
23: Laquon Treadwell
25: Artie Burns
26: Paxton Lynch
28: Joshua Garnett
29: Robert Nkemdiche
30: Vernon Butler
31: Germain Ifedi

Kalli fucked around with this message at 03:14 on May 3, 2024

Borsche69
May 8, 2014

is it that much better in the years prior to 2017? 50% hitrate lines up with a study that was done on 2010-2017 drafts (very cursory google search coming off of the vikings sbnation, i did not do much more research than that):

"The 33rd Team did a study, based on the 2010-2017 NFL draft classes, which have now all completed their rookie contracts, to see what percentage of players signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. The results aren’t any better than the previous study."



i gave up and went ahead and looked back to 2013 and yeah 12 is pretty much the number

2016: 12
2015: 12
2014: 6 (3 were cut)
2013: 13 (1 was cut)

Borsche69
May 8, 2014

i think the note about guaranteed for injury vs fully guaranteed gets countered by the insanely rising cap ceiling which i dont think fifth year options have properly scaled with. the fifth year option isn't the franchise tag, its calculated at a way, way lower rate. even if you end up on the hook after a lovely/injury 4th year, the gamble generally ends up being worth it. only qbs (who's fifth year options will hit that 20-25mil cap hit) will be seen as really bad value if they dont pan out. otherwise most sit somewhere between around 7-15mil, and you need sicko mode players (jamarr chase, micha parsons) whos option would exceed that 20mil mark, which is a good problem to have anyway and you'd still rather option them than franchise them.

Mystic Stylez
Dec 19, 2009

Kalli posted:

26: Paxton Lynch

laughing about this again

Freaquency
May 10, 2007

"Yes I can hear you, I don't have ear cancer!"

Mystic Stylez posted:

laughing about this again

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Anyone who had doubts before that clip came out knew right then and there that he was gonna be awful. I’m still amazed he never ended up with the Browns or Bears.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


It seems to me that first round picks are dramatically over valued

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

The Saints and over drafting defensive ends that spend half their time on IR and aren’t very good when they play. Name a more iconic pairing.

T*m Br*dy and cheating

Mega64
May 23, 2008

I took the octopath less travelered,

And it made one-eighth the difference.

fartknocker posted:

Anyone who had doubts before that clip came out knew right then and there that he was gonna be awful. I’m still amazed he never ended up with the Browns or Bears.

The post-Peyton Broncos are the new home for bust QBs. The best QB they've had since was, what, Flacco?

dingo with a joint
Jan 12, 2019

wrong cow

Mega64 posted:

The best QB they've had since was, what, Flacco?

just asking to be tied to a chair and offered a dangerwich.

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A Sneaker Broker
Feb 14, 2020

Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot
Happy Jordan Love Extension Day for all those who celebrate. I'm expecting 5yrs/$225mil.

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