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Kraftwerk posted:The part that gets me is how much men and material the Russians lost and yet they reconstituted their military and are double (triple?) the size they were at the start of the conflict while Ukraine is running out of troops and having a hard time finding new ones. At this rate Russia could take Kharkhiv if they work fast enough vs the aid. You and Wilo should hang out some time. The nuke guy.
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Apr 30, 2024 22:15
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| # ? Jun 2, 2024 14:32 |
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  saw a newsweek blurb with drone footage of a cluster round (claimed to be atacms) hitting an alleged russian troop concentration point the observing drone is very far back so the footage is not graphic and no deaths or injuries are visible, but it is probably footage of a moment that killed and maimed a lot of people so please avoid if you think that's going to negatively effect you https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/status/1785614608444674128 i only post it because it's the first time i've seen the actual use of cluster rounds and not satellite images of the after effects. seeing the sheer size of the area of effect is terrifying, i'm terrible at estimating scale but it seems to me like a circle with a radius of roughly 200m at least. to have an observation drone simply call in a single strike that was claimed to have basically erased an entire company dozens of miles behind the lines continues to highlight just how efficiently lethal modern war has become. the new atacms aren't a substitute for tube artillery, but the russians will have to think hard about larger troop concentrations anywhere close to the front, which will at least make it harder to rapidly exploit breakthroughs
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May 2, 2024 01:48
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:
I guess you missed this? Likewise , long-distance footage of a Russian cluster strike on a city park hundreds of km behind the Frontline.https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1785242253797081221#m (Which didn't get nearly enough reaction, IMHO)
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May 2, 2024 01:59
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OddObserver posted:I guess you missed this? Likewise i saw the headline that there was a deadly strike on a city park in odessa, i didn't realize it was a cluster bomb. russia can't even claim that it was a strike on a nearby building with a legitimate target that missed, they used a round that's specifically for large open spaces to hit the park another of the innumerable tragic aspects of this war is that i can make a list of the number of times the russians have bombed popular ukrainian parks
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May 2, 2024 02:07
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OddObserver posted:I guess you missed this? Likewise Well that's hosed, I just assumed the Odessa park strike was debris from a shootdown but that's clearly cluster artillery working as intended
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May 2, 2024 02:28
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68941220.ampquote:The US has accused Russia of deploying chemical weapons as a "method of warfare" in Ukraine, in violation of international laws banning their use. Shells from NK, drones from Iran, and now Assad has something to contribute when needed.
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May 2, 2024 14:56
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i saw the headline that there was a deadly strike on a city park in odessa, i didn't realize it was a cluster bomb. russia can't even claim that it was a strike on a nearby building with a legitimate target that missed, they used a round that's specifically for large open spaces to hit the park Pretty sure that attack on Odessa was all about punishing the city for the Trade Union fire.
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May 2, 2024 18:07
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quote:Ukraine: Russian Forces Executed Surrendering Ukraine Soldiers quote:The apparent executions do not appear to be isolated instances. Human Rights Watch also identified Russian drone footage posted on February 5, 2024, capturing a separate battlefield moment. In that incident, Human Rights Watch could not determine whether the Ukrainian soldiers surrendered, but a male voice heard in the clip, which appears to be credible, apparently provides commands to Russian soldiers on the battlefield in the Donetska region. The voice says in Russian, “take no prisoners, shoot everyone.” Audiovisual analysis of the footage supports the conclusion that the drone is Russian. https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/05/02/ukraine-russian-forces-executed-surrendering-ukraine-soldiers
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May 2, 2024 18:08
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Russia is winning so hard it needs to cluster-bomb a city park on a warm afternoon. How do you even begin to justify this poo poo? Upcoming victory day?
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May 2, 2024 21:54
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Mokotow posted:Russia is winning so hard it needs to cluster-bomb a city park on a warm afternoon. How do you even begin to justify this poo poo? Upcoming victory day? Historically speaking you say they meant to hit an abandoned shack 2 blocks away somebody once repaired an armored car in 8 years ago.
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May 2, 2024 22:04
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I keep seeing articles of F16s in Ukraine, anything confirmed?
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May 3, 2024 01:30
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To be fair... posted:I keep seeing articles of F16s in Ukraine, anything confirmed? Probably we'll see something confirmed when they do something that would make Tom Clancy blush.
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May 3, 2024 01:38
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To be fair... posted:I keep seeing articles of F16s in Ukraine, anything confirmed? i saw a recent statement from the ukranians that they're expecting delivery after easter, but it's something i doubt they'd ever give a straight answer on because why risk it
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May 3, 2024 01:51
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i saw a recent statement from the ukranians that they're expecting delivery after easter, but it's something i doubt they'd ever give a straight answer on because why risk it Orthodox Easter? Roman Catholics already did their egg hunts.
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May 3, 2024 02:04
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To be fair... posted:Orthodox Easter? Roman Catholics already did their egg hunts. Yes. This Sunday is Orthodox Easter.
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May 3, 2024 02:06
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/american-aid-alone-wont-save-ukraine Jack Watling has a new article in FA.
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May 3, 2024 09:51
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Ukraine still has a lot of Soviet era hardware. Did they get any of this stuff post Soviet times or is it all literally 30-35 years old at minimum? So like all their T64s and BMP2s etc are they all ancient stuff they've kept running or did they somehow buy some stuff in 90s-2000s?
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May 3, 2024 22:11
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They domestically manufacture a lot of their own equipment.
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May 3, 2024 22:11
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Charliegrs posted:Ukraine still has a lot of Soviet era hardware. Did they get any of this stuff post Soviet times or is it all literally 30-35 years old at minimum? So like all their T64s and BMP2s etc are they all ancient stuff they've kept running or did they somehow buy some stuff in 90s-2000s? For example, every T-64 ever built was made in Ukraine (Ukrainian SSR or the independent state). They kept the factory and the workforce, and kept upgrading them. They similarly had a lot of missile manufacturing knowledge, and other stuff.
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May 3, 2024 22:18
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It's also not that strange to have older tanks and vehicles. They recieve upgrade packages over time so something like a T-72 built in the 80s likely has had numerous upgrades/overhauls over the years. I would guess a lot of the U.S. Abrams tanks are pretty old too.
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May 3, 2024 22:22
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Also Ukraine was a pretty major arms exporter post-breakup so its probably safe to assume they replaced some things that needed it.
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May 3, 2024 22:22
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A huge element of the motivation for the initial invasion was to gain control over Ukraine's economy, including its arms manufacturing.
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May 3, 2024 22:56
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Mokotow posted:Russia is winning so hard it needs to cluster-bomb a city park on a warm afternoon. How do you even begin to justify this poo poo? Upcoming victory day? "there were no civilians there, just
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May 4, 2024 00:13
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Raenir Salazar posted:Also Ukraine was a pretty major arms exporter post-breakup so its probably safe to assume they replaced some things that needed it. As demonstrated by the documentary Lord of War.
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May 4, 2024 00:14
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Blue Footed Booby posted:As demonstrated by the documentary Lord of War. It certainly tells a lot of lore about Nick Cage, or John Travolta, ever since Face Off I can't really tell them apart.
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May 4, 2024 00:20
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Szarrukin posted:"there were no civilians there, just I thought putin was pro hamas
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May 4, 2024 00:22
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To be fair... posted:I thought putin was pro hamas He's pro-Hamas as far as Hamas is anti-US. Israel backed Russia on Ukraine but didn't like that Russia was backing Hamas for PR.
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May 4, 2024 02:13
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Another interview with Kotkin the historian, who talks about Russia's recent past and present and future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaJ9VZorgjM He has this thesis that things were simpler during the cold war. And in the present, USA et al. haven't quite figured out what situation we all "should" be in, but the best available option is another cold war - which has actually already started, so we need to realise that. Interesting arguments. e: there's an article/interview with/of Kotkin in Foreign Affairs just now with more stuff but I can't be bothered to try to bypass the paywall on it jaete fucked around with this message at 11:22 on May 4, 2024 |
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May 4, 2024 11:14
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jaete posted:Another interview with Kotkin the historian, who talks about Russia's recent past and present and future: Its 50 minutes long, can you summarize the key points? What is meant by "situation", the geopolitical status quo?
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May 4, 2024 23:54
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Raenir Salazar posted:Its 50 minutes long, can you summarize the key points? What is meant by "situation", the geopolitical status quo? only 50m? come on now, that's pretty short for an international relations podcast! idk why youtube removed their searchable auto-transcript feature though, that poo poo was useful. absent that pretty much any podcast is gonna still be intelligible at 1.75x speed and youtube has that built in. 2x is a bit difficult if you're not used to it, but kotkin speaks slow enough for it to be fine (interviewer is a bit hard) anyway archive.today is the standard paywall bypass of the day, beep bop drop URL in so simple https://archive.is/UdX0d i assume it's that one since i can't find a more recent one
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May 5, 2024 00:13
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:only 50m? come on now, that's pretty short for an international relations podcast! idk why youtube removed their searchable auto-transcript feature though, that poo poo was useful. This guy is dumb as hell and it couldn’t be more obvious. Aside from all the corny remarks about nefarious environmental regulations and these darn kids today, he clearly views history like a video game, arguing that Japan might occupy the Russian Far East. Overall though the main problem with his reasoning is he desperately wants to believe concepts like “Western” and “Jeffersonian” mean anything at all.
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May 5, 2024 02:14
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:This guy is dumb as hell and it couldn’t be more obvious. Aside from all the corny remarks about nefarious environmental regulations and these darn kids today, he clearly views history like a video game, arguing that Japan might occupy the Russian Far East. Overall though the main problem with his reasoning is he desperately wants to believe concepts like “Western” and “Jeffersonian” mean anything at all. He could work on his jokes a little more, and I think the environmental and kid stuff are part of that. The rest of what he has to say is nothing really new (from him and other academics/scholars on Russian history) and he just gives multiple scenarios of where this current war might lead Russia, but as he says, he has no idea what will happen and is just giving his ideas based on Russia's recent and past history. The problem he has is it is difficult to put a lifetime of learning about Russia into a less than 1 hour podcast/youtube that a general audience can understand or will sit and listen to.
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May 5, 2024 10:16
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He could write books or articles. Youtube podcasts are one of the worst mediums for complex political ideas.
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May 5, 2024 10:55
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I mean, he does also do that.
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May 5, 2024 16:40
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Kraftwerk posted:I just don't see how Ukraine can reconstitute itself and basically have 10:1 kill ratios Do you have a source on that one?
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May 5, 2024 19:44
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You want someone to prove that a 10:1 kill ratio against a peer adversary is unlikely at best? Shouldn't such a statement be the baseline assumption and the opposite be the one to require proof?
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May 5, 2024 20:00
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Cpt_Obvious posted:You want someone to prove that a 10:1 kill ratio against a peer adversary is unlikely at best? Shouldn't such a statement be the baseline assumption and the opposite be the one to require proof? I mean, with good enough gear and training it's more than possible... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War Yes, I know this isn't US and Iraq, but if the West finally pulled their heads out of their asses and gave Ukraine a lot of the good stuff, we could wrap this up in [training time for gear] + 3-6 months.
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May 5, 2024 20:26
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Keisari posted:I mean, with good enough gear and training it's more than possible... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War Yeah if the west wanted to end this they should’ve ended it when Ukraine took back Kharkiv. Instead they had Ukraine fight this war with one hand tied behind their back then cut them off from any support for 6 months. In the meantime Russia adapted to almost every tactic and is now slowly and methodically inflicting casualties on Ukraine that it can ill afford to replace while mounting a 400k strong army that can spread out across a vast frontier. Setting aside ideology for a moment that whole counter attack last summer was highly telegraphed and ill advised. Russia had heavily prepared positions and had a turkey shoot on western equipment. It’s not the Ukrainians’ fault they couldn’t pierce the Surovkin line. It’s the West’s fault for pressuring Ukraine into some kind of decisive battle everyone knew they’d lose because they had like 1/4th the equipment they needed to execute on it. They were given an ultimatum to show results and they simply lost a lot of a good men instead. Since then they’ve continuously taken casualties. Yes those casualties favoured Ukraine while they still had ammunition. But when Russia can just send more meat into the grinder while Ukraine ostensibly will run out of troops before Russia does wtf good does that do you? Now Ukraine risks a battlefield defeat because they can’t even hold their lines anymore because the support came too late and you can’t raise multiple brigades from civilians over night and nobody wants to fight anymore. We’ll see if France is even gonna bother trying to relieve Kiyiv if it comes to that but the way I see it the country is getting partitioned in half and everyone’s just gonna have to make their peace with that. Putin played us all. His lovely army rebuilt itself into a slightly less lovely army and he moonwalked past all the sanctions to rebuild some kind of standoff capability while the west still can’t keep up. It could if it wanted to. But they obviously don’t wanna risk escalation by doing the needful and allowing Ukraine to decisively win this conflict. Clearly there is a red line here somewhere and they won’t cross it out of fear or selfishness. The blood of every dead Ukrainian is on the hands of all of NATO and particular on the hands of Trump and his GOP stooges.
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May 6, 2024 01:01
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Will we be seeing more calls for sending troops to Ukraine in some function? At this point even starting to talk about it more and more seriously could be a risky move, since I think there's a lot of people who support material aid but would see that as a step way too far.
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May 6, 2024 06:54
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| # ? Jun 2, 2024 14:32 |
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Besides special forces/advisors/observers, there is a zero chance we will see US or EU country combat units on the ground in Ukraine. It just will not happen unless Russia is officially at war with NATO. The only plausible scenario I could see of NATO personel in Ukraine performing combat roles would be 'volunteer' pilots in 'donated' planes, similar to Soviet volunteer pilots during the Korean war.
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May 6, 2024 10:42
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