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socialsecurity posted:Is this more than the number of people who would vote against him for not supporting Israel? Why would you even consider that those are voting Democratic to begin with?
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May 7, 2024 03:37
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Celexi posted:Why would you even consider that those are voting Democratic to begin with? Because a large amount of average voters still support Israel and have a warped understanding of what is happening over there.
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May 7, 2024 03:38
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socialsecurity posted:Because a large amount of average voters still support Israel and have a warped understanding of what is happening over there. This isn't 1984, news and disinformation propagate in seconds and the majority of the possible voter pool for Biden is not low informed voters.
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May 7, 2024 03:43
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Celexi posted:look at this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Washington_(state) from 2016 and you will notice that too many young people staying home or not voting will be bad. Now, it is unlikely that will be enough to flip Washington state where he heralds from and has a huge following but Macklemore aside the negative feeling about Biden policies in swing states will be catastrophic for him. For all that the broad strokes of "Biden can lose votes from policies some of his past voters dislike" why did you choose to illustrate it with a specific election that Biden did not run in and where the Democrat could have lost over a quarter of their total (not youth) votes to write-ins and still won? At least you could have picked a 2020 swing state.
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May 7, 2024 03:44
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Celexi posted:This isn't 1984, news and disinformation propagate in seconds and the majority of the possible voter pool for Biden is not low informed voters. I feel like you may be in a bubble and haven't interacted with the average voter in some time, most don't give a gently caress about foreign poo poo if our troops aren't dying over there, even less understand even the slightest thing about Israel's crimes.
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May 7, 2024 03:46
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socialsecurity posted:I feel like you may be in a bubble and haven't interacted with the average voter in some time, most don't give a gently caress about foreign poo poo if our troops aren't dying over there, even less understand even the slightest thing about Israel's crimes. This line of thinking gave us 2016, condescension towards your voters is a terrible policy.
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May 7, 2024 03:56
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Celexi posted:This line of thinking gave us 2016, condescension towards your voters is a terrible policy. Do you have even the slightest shred of evidence that a greater majority of voters support the people of Gaza over Israel? Or anything showing that foreign wars we aren't directly involved in are the deciding factor in how they vote?
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May 7, 2024 03:58
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socialsecurity posted:Do you have even the slightest shred of evidence that a greater majority of voters support the people of Gaza over Israel? Or anything showing that foreign wars we aren't directly involved in are the deciding factor in how they vote? Remember Michigan uncommitted? and feelings against Israel were not as high then.
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May 7, 2024 04:00
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Here are some actual numbers on how Americans feel about the Gaza war. Most Americans believe Israel is right to be conducting the war (or at least has a right to do it), but is doing it in the wrong way. But most Americans, especially young Americans, simply don't care. quote:Months into the Israel-Hamas war, roughly six-in-ten Americans (58%) say Israel’s reasons for fighting Hamas are valid. But how Israel is carrying out its response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack receives a more mixed evaluation. About four-in-ten U.S. adults (38%) say Israel’s conduct of the war has been acceptable, and 34% say it has been unacceptable. The remaining 26% are unsure. Biden needs to worry about Muslims in Michigan but - and this disappoints me - the Gaza war appears to lack popularity or infamy. It just doesn't matter to Americans very much. Half of us don't even know that more Palestinians have died than Israelis. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 04:10 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 04:06
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The important us current event: Macklemore
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May 7, 2024 04:10
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Biden’s economy is so bad, he’s sending us all to the thrift shop!!! (I don’t know what macklemore has done since then)
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May 7, 2024 04:17
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Bwee posted:The important us current event: Macklemore Otoh, he'll probably have more impact on the election than a dog that was murdered two decades ago, however negligible that impact might be (and I'm guessing there will be some impact among younger voters). If you start chipping away at the most Democratic-leaning voters in various demographic subsets then it could very well tip the scales as a cumulative abstention; say, recalcitrant Muslim voters in MI + Black voters in MI (and I realize those aren't mutually exclusive) + younger voters in MI (again, same caveat) would be a relatively small percentage of total voters who might well have an outsized impact on the outcome. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 04:44 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 04:41
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So that ABC Ipsos poll also had some Gaza questions, which I'll paste below since it's much more relevant than a poll from March: The war has the lowest net importance of any issue asked about but still about half people would say it's the the most important or very important vs. somewhat important or less important. Somewhat surprised that abortion is also pretty low on the net.  And a few questions about whether the US is doing too much or too little about Ukraine, Israel support, and Palestine support.
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May 7, 2024 04:56
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single-mode fiber posted:If I had to guess, this is people who purposely take on the most difficult adoption cases, maybe they have enough time and money that they think they can make it work, but it turns out that they're wrong, and behavioral euthanasia is really the only means forward. The question only asks if the dog is healthy, not if it has tons of behavior problems or trauma responses. Maybe I just have self-selection bias of avoiding certain types of people, but almost everyone I know is in that income bracket, and none of them have ever euthanized an animal out of pure inconvenience, let alone 1 in 5 of them. I would argue that a dog with such behavioral issues that only euthanasia is recommended is not the definition of a healthy animal. We'd have to question the methodology and if they define healthy or how the people answering made that definition, but I would define a healthy dog as one that would be able to continuing their life with little to no difficulties in the near to immediate future, not one requiring significant medical care or hands-on training to make them a functioning part of a family. I'm kinda hoping it's your reading since it's a little more optmistic than "the rich dispose of animal the way they dispose of Keurig pods," but I get the feeling that it's not.
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May 7, 2024 05:01
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Willa Rogers posted:Otoh, he'll probably have more impact on the election than a dog that was murdered two decades ago, however negligible that impact might be (and I'm guessing there will be some impact among younger voters). my fear is that younger voters remember "thrift shop" as the weird song their parents would listen to when said voters were in kindergarten
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May 7, 2024 05:11
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Willa Rogers posted:Otoh, he'll probably have more impact on the election than a dog that was murdered two decades ago, however negligible that impact might be (and I'm guessing there will be some impact among younger voters). First Taylor Swift, now Macklemore. The great bards of our time will lead us to a new era.
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May 7, 2024 05:30
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koolkal posted:So that ABC Ipsos poll also had some Gaza questions, which I'll paste below since it's much more relevant than a poll from March: IMO, the fact that it got by far the fewest votes for "most important issue" is the most important piece of info, since that's what you'd expect people deciding their vote based on that issue alone to answer. People can consider a lot of issues to be merely "very important", but if there's one overriding issue that's absolutely going to decide their vote, regardless of the candidates' positions on every other issue, then they're probably going to name that as their most important issue. Granted, it kinda looks like this poll let people name multiple issues as their "one of the single most important issues", which isn't ideal. But even then, only 12% of people considered Gaza to be most important. Abortion being so low unfortunately makes sense - while abortion bans are generally unpopular, the GOP seems to have been fairly effective at convincing people that overturning Roe merely left abortion up to the states, and that all these state bans are purely the fault of state officials and should have nothing to do with the presidency. It's a bit wild that the polling for Ukraine support almost perfectly matches the polling for Israel support. Really puts things into perspective, I guess.
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May 7, 2024 06:22
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Main Paineframe posted:Abortion being so low unfortunately makes sense - while abortion bans are generally unpopular, the GOP seems to have been fairly effective at convincing people that overturning Roe merely left abortion up to the states, and that all these state bans are purely the fault of state officials and should have nothing to do with the presidency. It is also badly formulated question. If you are hardcore Anti-abortionist, should you answer yes or no to that question?
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May 7, 2024 06:36
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Willa Rogers posted:Otoh, he'll probably have more impact on the election than a dog that was murdered two decades ago, however negligible that impact might be (and I'm guessing there will be some impact among younger voters). Considering that that dog sunk the front-runner GOP candidate for VP, that dog has had a pretty big impact so far. And really, it's not the fact of when it was murdered that mattered, it's more that the murderer openly bragged about it (and went on to say that she'd love to kill the president's dog too) that made it a current story.
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May 7, 2024 10:09
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Celexi posted:This line of thinking gave us 2016, condescension towards your voters is a terrible policy. Americans have never cared about foreign policy without the prospect of American boots on the ground when they go to the voting booth in November. That's not condescension, it's just how people act: out of self interest or the interest of the people they know, not people they see in pictures half a world away. That's not ignorance, it's pragmatism. Celexi posted:Remember Michigan uncommitted? and feelings against Israel were not as high then. Bernie had more votes in Ohio, Oregon, and Pennsylvania after withdrawing in 2020 than "uncommitted" did in Michigan in 2024. Performative primary votes mean nothing for the general. Xombie fucked around with this message at 11:54 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 10:18
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USCE 2024: Macklemore is the new Michael Moore
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May 7, 2024 12:01
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USCE 2024: Bowling for a come up
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May 7, 2024 12:24
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Willa Rogers posted:Otoh, he'll probably have more impact on the election than a dog that was murdered two decades ago, however negligible that impact might be (and I'm guessing there will be some impact among younger voters). You keep saying this. The relevant detail isn't when the dog died, it's when people found out about it via the book she had ghost written. It has no relevance to Biden in any case, but you keep ignoring the actual context of the dog thing.
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May 7, 2024 12:28
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There are a lot of layers to "caring about Gaza" and they don't all translate to a specific way of voting. Boomer support of Israel is pretty much a wash; Trumpists will convert it into a reason for supporting Trump like basically anything else, other Boomers will do whatever they were going to do also. The younger you go, the seemingly more likely it is that you have concerns about Israel's conduct, or even full-throated opposition -- but I think a large amount of people in this group are also not necessarily convinced there's anything we can do about it. The exact proportion of that group who does think we can do something about it, and also won't vote for Biden because of it... remains to be seen. I think it's right to be concerned about it (in addition to being concerned about other aspects of the war, of course) but it's hard to draw any conclusions yet. But a poll that measures "concern for Gaza" isn't likely going to reveal that. The Artificial Kid posted:USCE 2024: Macklemore is the new Michael Moore Haha nice
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May 7, 2024 12:32
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being completely realistic, the tiktok ban is more likely to influence the election than the genocide of palestinians. tiktok already told its users to flood politicians with phone calls to try and stop the bill, i don't have any doubt that they'll start yelling about joe biden banning tiktok, and given its massive userbase and how much time younger americans spend time on the app, that could absolutely doom him by depressing the vote.
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May 7, 2024 13:03
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C. Everett Koop posted:I would argue that a dog with such behavioral issues that only euthanasia is recommended is not the definition of a healthy animal. We'd have to question the methodology and if they define healthy or how the people answering made that definition, but I would define a healthy dog as one that would be able to continuing their life with little to no difficulties in the near to immediate future, not one requiring significant medical care or hands-on training to make them a functioning part of a family. Yeah, I just figure a lot of times polls aren't super precise in their wording of questions or possible responses, lest they be accused of being a push poll, so maybe there's room for variance in respondents' definition of healthy (I agree with you in that I wouldn't call a dog with those hypothetical issues healthy, but maybe someone else would). The other thing that occured to me is maybe the upper income bracket is too wide. Like, maybe it's actually the $500k+ per year crowd that's euthanizing their pets when inconvenienced or bored, and 100-200k is not.
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May 7, 2024 14:07
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Xombie posted:Americans have never cared about foreign policy without the prospect of American boots on the ground when they go to the voting booth in November. That's not condescension, it's just how people act: out of self interest or the interest of the people they know, not people they see in pictures half a world away. That's not ignorance, it's pragmatism. 48,162 people voted for uninstructed delegate in the Wisconsin democratic primary at the beginning of April. Biden won WI by 20,682 votes in 2020. I don't know if he would lose more voters by not supporting a genocide, but it certainly looks like he may lose enough to lose the election by staying the course. https://www.npr.org/2024/04/03/1242424035/wisconsin-uninstructed-uncommitted-biden-gaza
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May 7, 2024 14:17
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enahs posted:48,162 people voted for uninstructed delegate in the Wisconsin democratic primary at the beginning of April. Biden won WI by 20,682 votes in 2020. I don't know if he would lose more voters by not supporting a genocide, but it certainly looks like he may lose enough to lose the election by staying the course. In 2020 nearly 300,000 primary votes went to Bernie, and I might be remembering wrong but in my recollection there was a fairly strong current of "people who voted for Bernie will never vote for Centrist Voltron" back then.
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May 7, 2024 14:30
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single-mode fiber posted:Yeah, I just figure a lot of times polls aren't super precise in their wording of questions or possible responses, lest they be accused of being a push poll, so maybe there's room for variance in respondents' definition of healthy (I agree with you in that I wouldn't call a dog with those hypothetical issues healthy, but maybe someone else would). "Know someone who" is also a really, really wide band. I know at least one person who euthanized a dog for behavior issues, not counting the local almost-entirely-no-kill shelter (it's not common at all but dog fighting rings are a problem and, well). I do not to my knowledge know anyone who euthanized a mentally and physically healthy dog but yeah that's a very easy terminology slipup in the question. DEEP STATE PLOT posted:being completely realistic, the tiktok ban is more likely to influence the election than the genocide of palestinians. tiktok already told its users to flood politicians with phone calls to try and stop the bill, i don't have any doubt that they'll start yelling about joe biden banning tiktok, and given its massive userbase and how much time younger americans spend time on the app, that could absolutely doom him by depressing the vote. Tbh I don't know where they're going to go strategically from here other than fighting in court. The main point of the push was to try and stop the bill. Do they try to make an example of Biden in hopes Trump and Congress will undo the bill, or to discourage other democracies from trying the same thing? Certainly possible.
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May 7, 2024 14:31
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People keep saying that it's not a big deal because a majority of Americans support the war or whatever, but that's not the point. The last few elections have had razor thin margins and if Biden has depressed turnout AT ALL because of his support for this genocidal war, it could very well be the thing that costs him the election. Biden needs maximum voter engagement and enthusiasm if he's going to defeat Trump. "Only X percent of Americans care about this issue" doesn't matter if that percentage stays home on election day, which I think many people will because those that do care, care pretty strongly about it.
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May 7, 2024 14:36
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:People keep saying that it's not a big deal because a majority of Americans support the war or whatever, but that's not the point. The last few elections have had razor thin margins and if Biden has depressed turnout AT ALL because of his support for this genocidal war, it could very well be the thing that costs him the election. Biden needs maximum voter engagement and enthusiasm if he's going to defeat Trump. Yeah, I think that's why the more salient question is "are more Americans going to support altering our stance on the war, versus staying the course?" There isn't a way for Biden to please both Zionists and those who support the Palestinians, so if he's just being pragmatic then his support will be influenced by the relative numbers in each group. People who are saying it is a big deal (to invert your group definition) need to not just make the case that he's going to lose a lot of voters by staying Zionist, but that he's going to lose more voters than he would by doing otherwise. e: Clearly, Joe Biden is not just being pragmatic, but there's not much point in us arguing with each other about why he should stop being a Zionist on moral grounds so we end up arguing about whether it's an effective approach for winning the election instead. e2: I'm not sure there's much point in that either, but maybe it's an effective proxy for the argument people really want to have. Eletriarnation fucked around with this message at 15:40 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 14:54
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Kchama posted:Considering that that dog sunk the front-runner GOP candidate for VP, that dog has had a pretty big impact so far. And really, it's not the fact of when it was murdered that mattered, it's more that the murderer openly bragged about it (and went on to say that she'd love to kill the president's dog too) that made it a current story. The dog story sank Noem's potential candidacy as soon as it came out, the Trump campaign made it known it sank her potential candidacy, and it sank any other potential candidacy once she leaves office. It likely even killed any chances she had for a cushy post-gubernatorial sinecure. If the Democratic voters who are still beating this dead dog, so to speak, after 10 days still think it's politically useful to try to get her to resign or otherwise be ousted, they can knock themselves out, but it's not like she's likely to be replaced by a Democrat or that this issue will be the dragon-slayer that takes Trump down. It's not hurting Trump's polling in any noticeable way nor should it, from a logical standpoint, because he hadn't chosen her as veep and has made it known he won't; she was among a wide pool of candidates; and it heightens the drama around who he will choose on the ticket. I'm not saying that Macklemore's song will swing young voters against Biden; I'm saying that his song will have more of an impact politically than the Noem story because it's far more relevant to voters about an issue far more relevant to their voting than a story that's gonna be as dead as Noem's dog once Trump picks someone else as veep, which I guarantee will be the case.
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May 7, 2024 14:56
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:People keep saying that it's not a big deal because a majority of Americans support the war or whatever, but that's not the point. The last few elections have had razor thin margins and if Biden has depressed turnout AT ALL because of his support for this genocidal war, it could very well be the thing that costs him the election. Biden needs maximum voter engagement and enthusiasm if he's going to defeat Trump. So where do we go from here?
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May 7, 2024 14:57
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Blue Footed Booby posted:You keep saying this. The relevant detail isn't when the dog died, it's when people found out about it via the book she had ghost written. It has no relevance to Biden in any case, but you keep ignoring the actual context of the dog thing. I'm not ignoring it; I'm arguing that in the scheme of election-year things it'll be irrelevant once Trump chooses someone else. What other impact can it possibly have? That she's ousted from office & replaced by another Republican?
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May 7, 2024 14:57
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:People keep saying that it's not a big deal because a majority of Americans support the war or whatever, but that's not the point. The last few elections have had razor thin margins and if Biden has depressed turnout AT ALL because of his support for this genocidal war, it could very well be the thing that costs him the election. Biden needs maximum voter engagement and enthusiasm if he's going to defeat Trump. I don't love the realpolitik campaign arguments because coming out against genocide could just as easily cause him political issues; it appears the bloodthirsty Zionist bloc is also kind of significant, tends to be more represented in likely voter models, and perhaps may be more willing to be a swing vote for Trump since they're fash adjacent. In the case of genocide we should reject the notion that this amoral calculus matters at all.
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May 7, 2024 14:59
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:I don't love the realpolitik campaign arguments because coming out against genocide could just as easily cause him political issues; it appears the bloodthirsty Zionist bloc is also kind of significant, tends to be more represented in likely voter models, and perhaps may be more willing to be a swing vote for Trump since they're fash adjacent. In the case of genocide we should reject the notion that this amoral calculus matters at all. According to the polls, most people aren't bloodthirsty Zionists or fascists. Most people just don't care and they view Israel as conducting the war in response to a terrorist attack and therefore justified. A majority of Americans say they have paid no attention to the war at all and can't even tell you which side has had more casualties - despite the war and casualty numbers being blared on the news non-stop for 6 months. That doesn't really imply bloodthirstiness and more supports the idea that Americans don't care much about foreign policy that doesn't involve American lives and the more general truism that the vast majority of Americans don't follow the news or politics closely.
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May 7, 2024 15:08
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:I don't love the realpolitik campaign arguments because coming out against genocide could just as easily cause him political issues; it appears the bloodthirsty Zionist bloc is also kind of significant, tends to be more represented in likely voter models, and perhaps may be more willing to be a swing vote for Trump since they're fash adjacent. In the case of genocide we should reject the notion that this amoral calculus matters at all. If coming out either for or against genocide could just as easily cost him the election, then he's an irredeemable piece of poo poo for continuing to come out for and massively fund genocide.
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May 7, 2024 15:19
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:According to the polls, most people aren't bloodthirsty Zionists or fascists. Most people just don't care and they view Israel as conducting the war in response to a terrorist attack and therefore justified. The poll said "half can correctly report that more Palestinians than Israelis have died since the war’s start", you can afford to be a little more charitable to your fellow American
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May 7, 2024 15:24
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The Artificial Kid posted:So where do we go from here? I think not eagerly supporting a loving genocide would be a good start, and could stand on its own merits if it's all the same otherwise.
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May 7, 2024 15:29
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The Artificial Kid posted:One interpretation of this is that the right wing (including but not limited to those on the right whose principal preoccupation is zionism) have successfully secured a fork over Biden. Too much action against Israel and he will lose one segment of support, too little and he loses another. In the worst case he loses both through some combination of action and inaction. Either segment if lost might spell electoral defeat. Well, Netanyahu clearly has an answer. Keep the war going no matter what to put off elections for as long as possible; if that means Biden loses to Trump too, that's just bonus gravy.
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May 7, 2024 15:41
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