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ninjahedgehog posted:Yeah 100%, that was the best roll call in recent memory and I'd be real sad if they went back to the boring old way Ehhh not Ohio, it'd be skyline chili and no one needs to see that
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May 10, 2024 16:41
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zoux posted:Ehhh not Ohio, it'd be skyline chili and no one needs to see that Illinois holds up a casserole, claims it's a local pizza style.
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May 10, 2024 17:36
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zoux posted:They should do it like that from now on, but because it was cool Every one should be food, plus animal, plus scenic view.
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May 10, 2024 17:40
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A slice of pizza, and a rat, in a subway station
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May 10, 2024 17:46
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"eyyyyyy we got da best fuggin pizza in da world" *holds up cardboard crust with a big greasy slop of cheese on top* e: maybe with some barely detectable sauce if you're lucky
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May 10, 2024 18:21
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bird food bathtub posted:Illinois holds up a casserole, claims it's a local pizza style. If you think about it, Cincinnati chili is like a pizza except the crust is a bed of spaghetti.
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May 10, 2024 18:59
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Interesting thing in Trump's latest video: He spends a lot of time taking down RFK Jr. and explicitly attacks him for being too pro-vaccine and not really an anti-vaxxer. I wonder if the campaign has some kind of data that shows Trump losing gettable anti-vax votes to RFK. https://twitter.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1788654767935558111
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May 10, 2024 19:04
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Trump should try getting a brain worm infection, couldn't hurtProfessor Beetus posted:"eyyyyyy we got da best fuggin pizza in da world" *holds up cardboard crust with a big greasy slop of cheese on top* At least it's identifiably pizza and not a mutated pot pie
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May 10, 2024 19:06
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Interesting thing in Trump's latest video: There was murmuring on 538 (it’s slightly more listenable since they fired Silver) that polling starting to show RFK pulling more from republicans and I think Trump speaking up about RFK is the proof positive they definitely see the same thing.
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May 10, 2024 19:09
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Professor Beetus posted:"eyyyyyy we got da best fuggin pizza in da world" *holds up cardboard crust with a big greasy slop of cheese on top* Chicago: eyy we got the best hot dog *holds up a salad* (Its actually triple S-tier, but still)
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May 10, 2024 19:14
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Yiggy posted:There was murmuring on 538 (it’s slightly more listenable since they fired Silver) 
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May 10, 2024 19:20
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Yiggy posted:There was murmuring on 538 (it’s slightly more listenable since they fired Silver) that polling starting to show RFK pulling more from republicans and I think Trump speaking up about RFK is the proof positive they definitely see the same thing. It's because only the various right wing rags would give him airtime in an attempt to undermine Biden. Predictably, this served up approximately 0 exposure of his campaign to actual Democrats while telling all the Republicans that he's a super awesome candidate. It was a flawless plan, thwarted only by the duplicitous Democrats suddenly deciding to not watch News Max and OANN just to spite Trump!
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May 10, 2024 19:24
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Interesting thing in Trump's latest video: That data would be the opposite of what almost all polling shows, though: When third-party candidates are added to head-to-heads, Trump is leading by a little less than 3 percent instead of by 1 percent when he's pitted directly against Biden:   Those are national polls, but swing states are showing the same dynamic; Quinnipac's lastest WI poll has Biden leading Trump by 6 in head-to-head & dropping to +1 with third-party candidates included. I think it's far more likely that Trump is trash-talking Kennedy bc (1) trash-talking is what comes naturally to Trump; and (2) he's (somewhat wisely, imo) branding Kennedy as "far left" and pro-vax to make him more attractive as an alternative to Biden. (Like how Schiff ran against Garvey before the CA jungle primary by calling him a far-right Trump lover.) There'd be far more effort put into smearing RFK, as Democrats are now doing, if Trump or his campaign considered RFK to be a serious threat. eta: Though who knows, maybe this is the start of a GOP smear campaign. etaa: see my post below Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 19:44 on May 10, 2024 |
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May 10, 2024 19:38
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It also may be a preemptive move to undermine RFK's challenge to debate Trump, even as Trump has issued the same debate challenge to Biden. And I guess the GOP *has* been going after RFK. quote:COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has challenged Donald Trump to a head-to-head debate for when both address a Libertarian convention later this month, a move that comes as the presumptive GOP nominee has ramped up both criticism of Kennedy’s independent bid and demands that President Joe Biden meet him on a debate stage.
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May 10, 2024 19:46
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Or they have like non-public internal polling.
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May 10, 2024 19:48
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Raenir Salazar posted:Or they have like non-public internal polling. Could be, but it'd be dismissed by pollsters if it's showing something radically different from the vast majority of other polling. This NYT story a few weeks ago goes into a little more depth about the Trump's campaign's branding effort: quote:Allies of Donald J. Trump are discussing ways to elevate third-party candidates in battleground states to divert votes away from President Biden, along with other covert tactics to diminish Democratic votes. Yeah, I'm gonna go with the o-razor in this instance. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:15 on May 10, 2024 |
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May 10, 2024 19:57
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 Really wish they had a March 7 marker, but it looks like it starts falling off before the SOTU
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May 10, 2024 20:37
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zoux posted:
SOTU probably helped, but moving to actual campaign issues and it becoming increasingly clear that some previously unknown bright young candidate will not spring forth from the ether to win the primary made a lot of people have to face that absolutely no one is going to vote Trump or stay home over Oldgate.
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May 10, 2024 20:46
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Willa Rogers posted:Could be, but it'd be dismissed by pollsters if it's showing something radically different from the vast majority of other polling. Why would it be dismissed by other pollsters? Plenty of pollsters have radically different results from each other from time to time, Ramassens lean is fairly well known but I haven't really seen pollsters point it out. It isn't like the Trump Campaign is outright saying they have internal polling saying XYZ, why would any other pollster respond to their change in tactics based off of an inference? Occam's Razor is that the simplest/most straight forward explanation is often the most likely one; Trump having data suggesting RFK Jr is a threat is a lot simpler then whatever it is you're vaguely implying. Like legitimately between those two posts I'm not exactly sure what your explanation is. Why would Trump be concerned about a debate with RFK Jr unless there was a concern about losing votes/support to him?
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May 10, 2024 21:07
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Killer robot posted:SOTU probably helped, but moving to actual campaign issues and it becoming increasingly clear that some previously unknown bright young candidate will not spring forth from the ether to win the primary made a lot of people have to face that absolutely no one is going to vote Trump or stay home over Oldgate. Doddergate
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May 10, 2024 21:10
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zoux posted:
My memory is failing me, what was going on in Jan/Feb of this year?
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May 10, 2024 21:21
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ninjahedgehog posted:My memory is failing me, what was going on in Jan/Feb of this year? That's when that ratfucking special counsel report on Biden claimed that he was a doddering old man who couldn't remember when his son died, and the press ran with it. Then the SOTU showed that wasn't the case and a couple weeks later the transcripts showed that Hur was just straight up lying.
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May 10, 2024 21:27
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Raenir Salazar posted:Why would it be dismissed by other pollsters? Plenty of pollsters have radically different results from each other from time to time, Ramassens lean is fairly well known but I haven't really seen pollsters point it out. It isn't like the Trump Campaign is outright saying they have internal polling saying XYZ, why would any other pollster respond to their change in tactics based off of an inference? 1. It would be dismissed by other pollsters given the extreme outlier status if it showed what virtually every other poll does not, as happens with extreme outliers, and if it's due to internal polling then there's also no disclosure as to sampling populations & methods. 2. The simplest, most straightforward explanation is laid out in the NYT story I posted: Branding RFK as a far-left candidate is in Trump's best interests. I'm not "vaguely implying" anything; I'm providing sources that say that that's what the campaign is doing, and why they're doing it. 3. Trump hasn't responded to RFK's debate challenge, just as Biden hasn't responded to Trump's debate challenge. I mentioned it more as an aside before I came across the NYT story that explained why the Trump campaign is branding RFK as a far-left candidate. Do you believe that Biden's afraid of losing voters to Trump if he debates him? Trump is doing the same thing as Adam Schiff did in branding Steve Garvey as a Trump-humping rightwinger, only opposite. That makes a lot more sense strategically than having secret polling that shows Trump ahead, and as the NYT story states & as I pointed out in my reply to Leon the branding has been going on for several weeks already. eta: I would add that Trump turning down the debate challenge would also be in Trump's best interest inasmuch as RFK could (and likely would, given a libertarian audience) rebut Trump's branding of him as far left. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 21:43 on May 10, 2024 |
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May 10, 2024 21:32
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https://twitter.com/Emilylgoodin/status/1789022941931303388 Lol Melania nixed that poo poo.
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May 10, 2024 21:38
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These are some interesting polling results by Enten about 2020 Biden voters who plan to not vote for him this year: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1788941745905905674 That a chunk of these disaffected voters think RFK would be less inclined to support Israel is pure fantasy--but I question whether Biden's campaign will be able (or want) to sufficiently portray Biden as less pro-Israel than RFK.
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May 10, 2024 21:41
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/Emilylgoodin/status/1789022941931303388 Aww, still a civilian
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May 10, 2024 21:47
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Willa Rogers posted:That data would be the opposite of what almost all polling shows, though: When third-party candidates are added to head-to-heads, Trump is leading by a little less than 3 percent instead of by 1 percent when he's pitted directly against Biden: While that's been the trend for much of the season, several polls in recent weeks have shown the opposite, and the political press and punditry have been abuzz about whether that's the beginning of a reversal of the trend. On top of that, RFK Jr. himself has been making appeals to Trump voters, promising to "seal the border" and investigate the Jan 6th prosecutions to see if they were political hit jobs against innocent conservatives. Overall, the polls are generally suggesting that RFK Jr.'s impact on the polls will be fairly small, but as this is likely to be a close race, there's really no telling how he might swing things. He's also unlikely to be on the ballot in all states, either, so the impact he has could vary a lot depending on which states he gets ballot access in. I think both campaigns would really just rather he get the gently caress out so they can focus on each other, without having to worry about him unpredictably throwing attacks at both candidates.
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May 10, 2024 21:54
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"Trump does better with all of the third party candidates in the race" doesn't mean trump does better with each individual third party candidate in the race. The former can still be true with RFK specifically pulling more away from trump.
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May 10, 2024 21:58
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Willa Rogers posted:1. It would be dismissed by other pollsters given the extreme outlier status if it showed what virtually every other poll does not, as happens with extreme outliers, and if it's due to internal polling then there's also no disclosure as to sampling populations & methods. What makes it an extreme outlier? And when in the past has other pollsters dismissed outliers in the past, extreme or otherwise? Why does it matter if there's no disclosure? Internal Polling is a Real Thing, I'm not understanding the objection here. We're not the audience of course we wouldn't have that information if it existed? quote:2. The simplest, most straightforward explanation is laid out in the NYT story I posted: Branding RFK as a far-left candidate is in Trump's best interests. I'm not "vaguely implying" anything; I'm providing sources that say that that's what the campaign is doing, and why they're doing it. Its vague and implied because you didn't state it outright, I think it's reasonable to suggest that posting an long article is not the same thing as saying "I believe X" and is also a tad unreasonable to expect people to read it and come to the same interpretation. quote:3. Trump hasn't responded to RFK's debate challenge, just as Biden hasn't responded to Trump's debate challenge. I mentioned it more as an aside before I came across the NYT story that explained why the Trump campaign is branding RFK as a far-left candidate. Do you believe that Biden afraid of losing voters to Trump if he debates him? The article in question seems to support what I'm saying that both parties in general have a lot of scrutiny and concerns about third parties when it seems plausible that said third parties might undermine them in a close election; considering how often Republicans had sponsored and supported such 3rd Parties like the Greens vs Democrats before, it seems pretty plausible that the most likely explanation for this change in branding is that the Trump campaigns sees RFK Jr's campaign as having more overlap with his base than Biden's. Otherwise why bother with this if there's no concern?
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May 10, 2024 21:59
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/Emilylgoodin/status/1789022941931303388 It’s based frankly. If she loves her kid keep him out of this poo poo for sure.
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May 10, 2024 22:10
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Considering the real campaign season has barely started, I am kind of skeptical of these polls showing 10+ percent support for RFK Jr. I could be wrong, but I don't see what the appeal for him to most people is going to be, other than a protest vote against the main two candidates.
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May 10, 2024 22:11
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Were the polls before or after the brain worm story
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May 10, 2024 22:13
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Main Paineframe posted:While that's been the trend for much of the season, several polls in recent weeks have shown the opposite, and the political press and punditry have been abuzz about whether that's the beginning of a reversal of the trend. Interesting about the movement among RFK leaners, although other polls are reinforcing the norm of RFK taking voters from Biden, like the q-pac WI poll. This is really a trippy year election-wise. (eta: As I read it, all three of those polls showing RFK hurting Trump more than Biden are national polls; do you know of any swing-state polling that shows the same?) I think RFK's debate challenge is definitely aimed toward proving his rightwing bona-fides, which is why Trump is likely to ignore it due to the branding campaign of RFK as far left. And yeah, the ballot access is gonna be a biggie for RFK, as well as the fact that voters often come home to the two major parties after initial support of third-party candidates. But I'm pretty sure this year is an anomaly as far as voters distaste of both major-party nominees; I doubt there's been another election year in which 60-70 percent of voters wanted someone other than the two chosen nominees. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 22:27 on May 10, 2024 |
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May 10, 2024 22:13
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Aside from Ross Perot, no 3rd party candidate has won more than 10 percent in the last 100 years, and Ross Perot had massive amounts of money to spend and RFK has a worm-eaten brain and a penchant for listing which sex offenders and pedophiles he associates with. He'll pull Jill Stein numbers.
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May 10, 2024 22:14
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Raenir Salazar posted:What makes it an extreme outlier? And when in the past has other pollsters dismissed outliers in the past, extreme or otherwise? Why does it matter if there's no disclosure? Internal Polling is a Real Thing, I'm not understanding the objection here. We're not the audience of course we wouldn't have that information if it existed? You're asking questions about an imaginary poll that Leon suggested might exist vs. a news story that stated why Trump is branding RFK as a far-lefty & has been doing so for weeks now. I'll stick with the NYT story over the imaginary poll bc the NYT story is real & quotes sources to explain the strategy & bc the strategy makes sense.
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May 10, 2024 22:17
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/Emilylgoodin/status/1789022941931303388 
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May 10, 2024 22:28
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The amount of people chomping at the bit for Barron to be "fair game" for ??? may not be up there with the rock radio guys counting down to Britney Spears's 18th birthday, but it's gross nonetheless.
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May 10, 2024 23:38
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Girls don't get a choice (unless they want one) in becoming a woman. Barron, as an adult, can decide whether he wants to become a MAGA politician. He can choose not to be a public figure
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May 10, 2024 23:41
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Jesus III posted:Girls don't get a choice (unless they want one) in becoming a woman. Barron, as an adult, can decide whether he wants to become a MAGA politician. He can choose not to be a public figure You can just make fun of him already, nobody gives a poo poo, he's the adult son of a billionaire. The sentiment of people hanging on the edge of their seat for him to be "fair game" is loving weird
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May 10, 2024 23:44
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zoux posted:Aside from Ross Perot, no 3rd party candidate has won more than 10 percent in the last 100 years, and Ross Perot had massive amounts of money to spend and RFK has a worm-eaten brain and a penchant for listing which sex offenders and pedophiles he associates with. He'll pull Jill Stein numbers. George Wallace in 1968 on the American Independent Party ticket. Funnily enough, they also nominated RFK Jr. in California in this year.
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May 11, 2024 00:15
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