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I think I cracked the code on the swing-state spending for Senate candidates! The reason that the Republicans aren't funding their candidates is because primaries haven't yet been held in those states yet while the Democrats are funding either incumbents or designatees. This is true for AZ, WI, MI, and NV; the only state in which spending is lagging for a determined nominee is PA, which makes sense bc of Casey's current polling lead. It doesn't make sense for the other states given current polling of <5 percent D margins for most of them.
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May 14, 2024 21:34
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The sourcing requirements in the IRA and the tariffs are not connected. China is also challenging the U.S. sourcing requirements at the WTO and the E.U. says the U.S. sourcing requirements might not technically be a violation of WTO rules, but they don't like it and want it changed. Yes sorry, they are indeed separate things. One of them might plausibly be a result of all those details, while the other seems like just an enemies list.
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May 14, 2024 21:38
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Jimbozig posted:Yes sorry, they are indeed separate things. One of them might plausibly be a result of all those details, while the other seems like just an enemies list. It basically was. The sourcing provision was added by Joe Manchin as a requirement for his vote on the IRA. He also asked for the Biden admin to support an EV battery plant in WV, so WV will get a new factory and American car manufacturers would be more likely to source their batteries from WV instead of China.
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May 14, 2024 21:43
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aBagorn posted:While I agree that charging needs to move towards the gas station model a bit more, I think that there has to be some amount of expectation for consumers to change habits as well. And like someone else said, other businesses need to get on the charging game. Restaurants, movie theaters, banks, parks, etc. Anywhere people can reasonably expect to spend more than 10-15 minutes should have a plethora of chargers available, and people need to move away from the mindset of "fill up fuel in less than 5 minutes" and towards the "incrementally add fuel multiple times during your normal routine, but not necessarily ever 'top off' unless you really need to" A lot of people basically go from home to office and vice versa. I basically don't go out. I go to the grocery store once a week. I walk in and pick out my things and walk out in like 10-15 minutes. Yeah I guess I should change my habits to waste more money eating out and shopping more I guess?
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May 14, 2024 21:46
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Willa Rogers posted:Ohio is not going to qualify Biden for the g.e. ballot, and Sherrod Brown will suffer as a result. Someone earlier itt posited that excluding Biden would make Democrats so mad they'd increase their turnout to compensate, but I think that's pretty much wishcasting. That doesn't quite answer the question, as the context was the massive amount of money going into it. I can connect the dots and suppose that "Because Biden probably won't be on the Ballot, Republicans have a better shot at winning the seat hence why they're betting hard on Ohio". In any case, I think its doubtful that Biden won't be on the ballot; according to this article while I was googling if a write-in campaign was a possible alternative: https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2024/04/18/the-petty-political-theatrics-ohio-republicans-are-playing-about-biden-being-on-the-ballot/ Basically, Dems just need to host a virtual mini-convention before the due date unless there's some technical hiccup with that I haven't seen addressed. quote:That's for selected states, though. Compare those to the D spending for Senate races in MS, FL & TX and I reckon there'd be some parallel numbers (but maybe not), just as the R spending in solid blue states would be nominal. That's not quite comparable, some states are clearly swing states and some aren't. Not contesting Arizona for spending is crazy.
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May 14, 2024 21:46
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Raenir Salazar posted:That doesn't quite answer the question, as the context was the massive amount of money going into it. I can connect the dots and suppose that "Because Biden probably won't be on the Ballot, Republicans have a better shot at winning the seat hence why they're betting hard on Ohio". See my post at the top of this page; the levels of spending are explained by the fact that the Democrats have chosen their nominees for those states (primarily incumbents or uncontested) while the Republicans have to wait for some of those primaries to select a nominee. eta: This also makes sense bc fundraising is easier for candidates who have won primaries than for wide pools of candidates running in a primary. Ohio is a state that has already had its senatorial primary & the nominees are locked in. The only state in which there's a huge gap between post-senatorial primary spending is PA, as I said. etaa: Montana's senatorial primary is next month so I'm guessing the R candidate is running unopposed. (I then looked it up & yes, the R is unopposed.) Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 22:22 on May 14, 2024 |
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May 14, 2024 22:09
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koolkal posted:It was mostly tongue in cheek but it is rather silly to view politics as the lawmakers sitting there looking at polling averages and picking whichever position is favored by 51%+ of people. That's already not how our democracy works in the US as previous studies have shown that legislation often ignores what most people want and favors the rich and powerful. Why are they delegating this to the states when they could just put them in national parks? Roosevelt National Park entrance is literally a rest stop off I-90 and would be perfect for a bunch of chargers, along with a bunch of other parks like Custer and Badlands and Mount Rushmore etc. Hook them up to solar or wind and you’re good to go. It encourages visits to national parks, takes strain off the creaking power grid, doesn’t add pollution or require plant buildouts, solves the anxiety of driving cross country and not knowing where your next stop will be… honestly these could be a sea change in American attitudes in general. How many people found they liked the slower pace of the pandemic where you didn’t have to rush everywhere all the time? You literally have an excuse to stop and smell the roses while saving yourself money and the planet. We could all use a reminder to slow down.
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May 14, 2024 22:15
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https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1790411052825395265?t=_ehEDJ4GjMEJU4OrRGpbNA
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May 14, 2024 22:29
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i pulled the ten most expensive races from opensecrets and did a lil spreadsheet stuff. in these races, republicans have raised $129,279,957.00 and spent $93,629,152.00. democrats have raised $282,993,734.00 and spent $218,110,963.00. of course there are more than 20 more races but thats how the most expensive ones have broken down so far. texas and florida are both on this list although as you probably expect the republican incumbent is substantially outraising their democratic challengers.
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May 14, 2024 22:32
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Failed Imagineer posted:https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1790411052825395265?t=_ehEDJ4GjMEJU4OrRGpbNA Lol What's her poll numbers?
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May 14, 2024 23:04
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lobster shirt posted:i pulled the ten most expensive races from opensecrets and did a lil spreadsheet stuff. in these races, republicans have raised $129,279,957.00 and spent $93,629,152.00. democrats have raised $282,993,734.00 and spent $218,110,963.00. of course there are more than 20 more races but thats how the most expensive ones have broken down so far. texas and florida are both on this list although as you probably expect the republican incumbent is substantially outraising their democratic challengers. How did you get 2024 data for the Senate races? I went looking on opensecrets but only found data thru 2023 Q4 or full-cycle data for the 2022 midterms. Do you have a link? And by "these races" do you mean the states cited in that tweet or something else? TIA!
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May 14, 2024 23:05
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Failed Imagineer posted:https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1790411052825395265?t=_ehEDJ4GjMEJU4OrRGpbNA It's amazing at how the most insecure people project exactly how insecure they are with their attempts to look strong and powerful. Like I get that she's trying to go for a mixture of "Rawr, guns and militarism good!" and "I'm not afraid to jog through scary towns full of minorities!" for the gun nut and racist votes respectively. But to me it's just screaming she's just scared of everything.. Also I'm not familiar with armored vest stuff but can anyone tell if that's actually a kevlar vest or just some plate carrier that's supposed to have ceramic plates put in it? Oh and of course, the implication that being gay is weak. Just loving LOL at that.
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May 14, 2024 23:14
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Alkydere posted:It's amazing at how the most insecure people project exactly how insecure they are with their attempts to look strong and powerful. Yeah I'm guessing it's an unloaded plate carrier but she's horribly out of breath either way
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May 14, 2024 23:17
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I was thinking about the ticket-splitting between Democratic Senate candidates vs. Biden that we've seen in a lot of recent polling & I wonder if it's possibly due to the Democrats' attempts to paint Trump as a singular & unique evil, especially as they're trying to court suburban Republicans with moves like getting tough on the border.
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May 14, 2024 23:20
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Alkydere posted:
Failed Imagineer posted:Yeah I'm guessing it's an unloaded plate carrier but she's horribly out of breath either way It looks like it's just a weighted vest to me.
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May 14, 2024 23:23
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you won't believe her power level when she takes it off
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May 14, 2024 23:24
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Willa Rogers posted:How did you get 2024 data for the Senate races? I went looking on opensecrets but only found data thru 2023 Q4 or full-cycle data for the 2022 midterms. Do you have a link? https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/most-expensive-races?cycle=2024&display=currcands i just clicked through each race in the list and made a spreadsheet
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May 14, 2024 23:29
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Willa Rogers posted:I was thinking about the ticket-splitting between Democratic Senate candidates vs. Biden that we've seen in a lot of recent polling & I wonder if it's possibly due to the Democrats' attempts to paint Trump as a singular & unique evil, especially as they're trying to court suburban Republicans with moves like getting tough on the border. A lot of people are dumb and think the President should face a opposed Senate for "balance" so they are forced to "compromise".
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May 14, 2024 23:30
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World Famous W posted:you won't believe her power level when she takes it off Is it white?
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May 14, 2024 23:30
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Alkydere posted:It's amazing at how the most insecure people project exactly how insecure they are with their attempts to look strong and powerful. https://twitter.com/ValentinaForSOS/status/1783952331999949281 Her Twitter is mesmerizing. She's putting out videos practically every day and practically all of them fall into one of three categories: - stuff like the above where she's waving around guns and bragging about how tough she is - sitting on camera in front of an American flag while making a fascist speech - videos of her doing workouts while bragging about how she's strong and tough and everyone else are wusses - all three of the above will always end with a picture of her holding a gun Like, just look at this poo poo. https://twitter.com/ValentinaForSOS/status/1787664163516354854 The aura of fascism coming off all her campaign stuff is incredible, and then you look at her actual platform and it's 90% just standard Business Republican stuff like cutting taxes, investing in small businesses, cutting regulations, and so on.
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May 14, 2024 23:36
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Willa Rogers posted:I was thinking about the ticket-splitting between Democratic Senate candidates vs. Biden that we've seen in a lot of recent polling & I wonder if it's possibly due to the Democrats' attempts to paint Trump as a singular & unique evil, especially as they're trying to court suburban Republicans with moves like getting tough on the border. Wouldn't you expect the exact opposite in that scenario, ie for Biden to be up vs Trump but the Senate races to be leaning Republican since they aren't 'uniquely evil' as Trump is?
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May 14, 2024 23:36
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lobster shirt posted:https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/most-expensive-races?cycle=2024&display=currcands i just clicked through each race in the list and made a spreadsheet oic; thanks! *** Looks like NRSC funding is outpacing DSCC funding this cycle, although I'd have to look up spending to see which has more cash-on-hand. RNSC:  DSCC:  Somewhat expected because more D incumbents are up for reelection this year.
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May 14, 2024 23:44
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Zore posted:Wouldn't you expect the exact opposite in that scenario, ie for Biden to be up vs Trump but the Senate races to be leaning Republican since they aren't 'uniquely evil' as Trump is? Hmm, perhaps! I guess I was thinking in terms of incumbency approvals for congressional candidates; while presidents do get an edge in reelection chances when they're incumbents, I don't think incumbency is tied to presidential approval ratings to the same extent it does with members of Congress. (And that's leaving aside that both presidential nominees are running for reelection.) Given Biden's disapproval ratings, maybe the "uniquely evil" is what's getting so many head-to-head g.e. polls as close as they are, even when the Senate candidates are doing better than he is for particular states. I'd be interested in the experts' take on the splits, and I'll see if I can find anything from them.
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May 14, 2024 23:55
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Wait, do women support Andrew loving Tate? I thought his support was entirely red pilled male incels.
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May 15, 2024 00:50
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Boris Galerkin posted:Wait, do women support Andrew loving Tate? I thought his support was entirely red pilled male incels. You'll find the occasional woman all in on misogyny like that, at least until the leopard eats their face (and sometimes even afterward)
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May 15, 2024 01:05
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Boris Galerkin posted:Wait, do women support Andrew loving Tate? I thought his support was entirely red pilled male incels.
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May 15, 2024 01:09
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Boris Galerkin posted:Wait, do women support Andrew loving Tate? I thought his support was entirely red pilled male incels. I assume some women want to pander to the red-pilled male incels to get their votes.
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May 15, 2024 01:12
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Also there is nothing these people are unwilling to do if they think it will Own The Libs
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May 15, 2024 01:13
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CrossFit was a mistake.
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May 15, 2024 01:14
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FlamingLiberal posted:They are pretty rare. As you said, Tate's audience is primarily teenage boys/young men who are dumb enough to buy into his whole deal That is also her clear target audience with these videos
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May 15, 2024 01:16
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Some women are also incels, or buy into a lot of MRA talking points, I've seen a few on twitter. I think its the rational behind the idea of being a "Pick Me"?
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May 15, 2024 01:18
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I don't even know what Tate is up to now (and I don't particularly care), but the last time I checked he was saying that having sex with women is gay
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May 15, 2024 01:20
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Failed Imagineer posted:https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1790411052825395265?t=_ehEDJ4GjMEJU4OrRGpbNA Counter-argument https://www.instagram.com/worlds_strongest_gay/?hl=en
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May 15, 2024 01:21
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Boris Galerkin posted:Wait, do women support Andrew loving Tate? I thought his support was entirely red pilled male incels. Lauren Southern just put out a story about how she went the tradwife route and it ruined her life. Women can also be dumb as hell.
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May 15, 2024 01:26
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fake e: supposed a decent % of tate views might also be Haters and Mockers. especially counterparts to said dumb boys. something something any and all attention is attention.zoux posted:This is the key excerpt imo i like how i have to reminded of the existence of the Stern interview which i assume was a completely boring interview given how this thread and other CEs/Pol threads have gossiped zero about.
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May 15, 2024 01:29
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FlamingLiberal posted:I don't even know what Tate is up to now (and I don't particularly care), but the last time I checked he was saying that having sex with women is gay no he said that having sex for pleasure is gay. its not a gay for a man to have sex with a woman for the purpose of conceiving a child, but it is gay for any other reason. and hell, maybe hes right.
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May 15, 2024 01:31
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PhazonLink posted:fake e: supposed a decent % of tate views might also be Haters and Mockers. especially counterparts to said dumb boys. something something any and all attention is attention. The transcript is quite long and I haven't read it all, so I'm just assuming Biden didn't use the Sybian: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/president-joe-biden-on-the-howard-stern-show
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May 15, 2024 01:35
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Goatse James Bond posted:The transcript is quite long and I haven't read it all, so I'm just assuming Biden didn't use the Sybian: Skimming through it, it doesn't look like there's much worth reading. It's an incredibly friendly interview. Stern is not shy about how much he loves Biden, and has no qualms about teeing up softball after softball for him. More than half the interview is just going over Biden's whole life story in considerable detail, with plenty of humanizing anecdotes, and the few political questions are basically all "can you believe how wild and crazy these ridiculous Republican assholes are?". It's no wonder it hasn't gotten much attention.
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May 15, 2024 02:01
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Main Paineframe posted:Skimming through it, it doesn't look like there's much worth reading. It's an incredibly friendly interview. Stern is not shy about how much he loves Biden, and has no qualms about teeing up softball after softball for him. More than half the interview is just going over Biden's whole life story in considerable detail, with plenty of humanizing anecdotes, and the few political questions are basically all "can you believe how wild and crazy these ridiculous Republican assholes are?". It's no wonder it hasn't gotten much attention. Stern seems like he would have been an "ironic" Trump voter at some point given his entire career schtick, but I guess not Push El Burrito posted:Lauren Southern just put out a story about how she went the tradwife route and it ruined her life. Women can also be dumb as hell. What does tradwife even look like in 2024? Is it still stay in the kitchen all day every day
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May 15, 2024 02:04
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Stern is old enough to know it’s an act
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May 15, 2024 02:07
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