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This is from the 21 days before the election, so not really relevant now, but some context for when people say "polling is useless" or whatever:
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May 16, 2024 01:53
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Not being flippant with this question: how close to the election should polls be to be considered something worth paying attention to? Or is it more marked by events rather than an explicit time frame? Like, would the polls be considered to be more representative of reality once the initial debates happen?
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May 16, 2024 02:19
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Velocity Raptor posted:Not being flippant with this question: how close to the election should polls be to be considered something worth paying attention to? It's probably both events and average time to election (because events change the narrative and the facts and proximity to the election measures how much campaigning has happened and how much people are paying attention). By this point, the polls should be better than a coin flip, meaning that, given historical polling average results, Trump is more likely to win. The accuracy of the polls increases linearly, on average, the closer we get to the election. Edit: And I don't think that polls are necessarily useless. It's just that the poll results are seemingly contrary to everything else at this moment. Women going for Biden +1 when he won them by 10 in 2020 pre-Dobbs seems hysterically wrong. Gaza and the protests being used as a reason for Biden's woes when neither are seemingly important and most voters want the police to crack even MORE protestor skulls/cracked them just enough to feel right to them. Republicans falling apart at the state levels and being unable to raise money, Republicans losing elections, Trump underperforming his primaries, no obvious reason why there should be such a massive realignment to Republicans/Trump since 2020, Trump being under multiple felony indictments, Trump being a proven rapist and fraudster. small butter fucked around with this message at 02:33 on May 16, 2024 |
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May 16, 2024 02:24
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Velocity Raptor posted:Not being flippant with this question: how close to the election should polls be to be considered something worth paying attention to? I would start to worry around late August and early September if the numbers seem stubborn personally. The media coverage is going to start ramping up soon and especially with the conventions it will start setting narratives and people start paying attention again.
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May 16, 2024 03:03
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Willa Rogers posted:Polls are valuable for tracking voter sentiment over time (particularly among the same pollster) as well as helping candidates with messaging, maximizing GOTV demographics, and suggesting where & what their ad buys should be. Sure, but I am reasonably certain that nobody here is part of the Biden campaign and just about everybody that does post here is generically only interested in their capacity to predict the election. Which is almost but not quite null prior to June and something you can start worrying about around late august and something to actually panic about late september and are functionally accurate 3 weeks out from election day. Until then they can certainly be interesting for the reasons you brought up.
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May 16, 2024 03:27
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I'm fascinated by polling, not worried about it. I can certainly understand why polling stresses out others, and why they'd rather dismiss it than embrace it. (edited bc of subsequent info I received) Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 05:04 on May 16, 2024 |
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May 16, 2024 03:37
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Is it safe to assume that the 17% who blame Biden for the end of abortion rights are the same people who won't vote? The ones who slept through what little civics education they got? doesn't matter, we're all hosed anyway
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May 16, 2024 03:52
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I have come around to thinking that the polling, however shoddy and misinformed/misused isn't the problem. The problem is the media's apparent inability to report on news effectively and this shift to pushing their opinion shows as news and then that gets reported on rather than just reporting. I think the media is more responsible than pretty much any other group for the current level of discourse. It's like the entire mediasphere is nothing but Jerry Springer and Morton Downey jr. on a constant repeat on every source. Flooding the entire media apparatus with bullshit seems to be as easy as handing someone a five digit check. Watching the media walk us hand in hand down the slippery road to fascism with the normalizing of loving horrible people with horrible beliefs that should have never been given any sort of spotlight whatsoever is tough.
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May 16, 2024 04:11
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I don't think you can entirely blame the media for giving us Joe Biden, he's been in our government since before a lot of them were even born.
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May 16, 2024 04:36
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small butter posted:Women going for Biden +1 when he won them by 10 in 2020 pre-Dobbs seems hysterically wrong. Phrasing!
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May 16, 2024 04:48
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L. Ron DeSantis posted:Is it safe to assume that the 17% who blame Biden for the end of abortion rights are the same people who won't vote? The ones who slept through what little civics education they got? It's tough to imagine many swing voters are supporting Trump because they think Biden destroyed abortion rights. It's almost entirely non-voters or people voting Biden/Trump for other reasons.
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May 16, 2024 05:20
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Personally, I like Joe Biden and am excited to vote for him (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 16, 2024 05:23
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i would guess the 17% who blame Biden for Roe are probably right wingers who saw the words 'blame ... Biden' and stopped thinking
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May 16, 2024 05:38
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:i would guess the 17% who blame Biden for Roe are probably right wingers who saw the words 'blame ... Biden' and stopped thinking It says in the article that the bulk of them are Republicans who are pro-choice and seem to be rationalizing voting for Trump. However, another large chunk of them are people who may be Democratic voters, but don't pay attention and thought that Biden did it because it happened while he was President. The one woman they quote in the article thought that the President tells the Supreme Court what to decide and Biden had asked the Supreme Court to overturn Roe.
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May 16, 2024 05:51
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so dumbasses.
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May 16, 2024 05:56
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PhazonLink posted:so dumbasses. Dumbasses wouldn't be a problem if there weren't so many of them.
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May 16, 2024 06:11
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PhazonLink posted:so dumbasses. It's about 1/3 of the people who think that and about 2/3 of them are Trump-supporting Republicans. But, that 1/3 makes up about 12% of people who say they lean Democratic in their votes. 12% of your base is a significant chunk and, even if they are dumbasses, they are still dumbasses who usually vote Democratic and their votes changing will have an impact because their votes count the same as everyone else. It is going to be similar to the 2000 election. The election will be very close and there will be: - Swing voters who vote for Trump because he will "bring down inflation" while promising a 10% tariff on all goods. - Swing voters who are dumbasses and vote for Trump because they think Trump is more pro-choice. - New ballot restrictions and the elimination of mail-in voting in a lot of places. - Potential third-party candidate spoilers - People who prefer one candidate, but don't vote because of enthusiasm or thinking both sides are the same. All of those situations have the potential to tip a very close election or make an election close. In 2000, there were several things that could have tipped the election to Gore if they didn't work against him (third party voters, ballot restrictions, the Supreme Court, winning his home state/other close state, getting his base more enthused, having higher turnout, and irrational dumbasses), but they all did and they were all partly responsible. There wasn't a single thing that was 100% responsible because if a single one of those things had gone the other way, then Gore would have won. But, they all didn't go Gore's way and he lost. Biden is absolutely going to benefit from some voters being complete dumbasses and voting for him for completely nonsensical reasons too. Dumbasses are still allowed to vote and their vote still counts as much, so their existence is still something that can impact the election. In a close election, being on the net losing end of the "dumbass" swing voter group can still be enough to sink you even if they aren't solely responsible, like what happened with Gore. The question is going to be how/if the people who usually don't vote end up voting. Lots of the "dumbass" or not paying attention demographics are much less likely to vote as well. The new Marist poll today shows what a lot of other polls have shown: That the likely voter is now more Democratic than average and the average registered voter is now more Republican than average. That is a huge flip from how it has been historically. Biden is at +5 with "Definitely" voters and +2 among registered voters in the new Marist poll and other polls show a similar gap between Likely/Definitely voters and registered voters/"all adult" samples. That is basically the only bit of good news he can consistently hang his hat on in recent polling. Even in polls where he is down significantly, there is a big gap in LV and RV screens now in favor of Democrats that was the exact opposite from the 1970's up through 2016. https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1790602762889089248 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 06:24 on May 16, 2024 |
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May 16, 2024 06:12
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PhazonLink posted:so dumbasses. They are not dumb necessarily, they are just liars. Dumb people can be good people. Liars cannot (especially the ones who lie as a facet of their strong embracing of fascism, which requires a fundamentally dishonest worldview).
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May 16, 2024 06:43
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AsInHowe posted:Personally, I like Joe Biden and am excited to vote for him what's that like?
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May 16, 2024 09:12
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It could also be people who blame Biden because he didn't do enough, like packing the courts or whatever.
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May 16, 2024 11:01
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The I/P thing really sucks because this admin has done a boatload of great stuff and is easily the best and most progressive presidency of my lifetime, but it's really really hard to start that conversation with, "if you just set aside the support for genocide for a moment."
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May 16, 2024 11:52
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ColdPie posted:The I/P thing really sucks because this admin has done a boatload of great stuff and is easily the best and most progressive presidency of my lifetime, but it's really really hard to start that conversation with, "if you just set aside the support for genocide for a moment." "Best domestic policies in a really long time" and Netanyahu wants trump elected.
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May 16, 2024 12:11
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ColdPie posted:The I/P thing really sucks because this admin has done a boatload of great stuff and is easily the best and most progressive presidency of my lifetime, but it's really really hard to start that conversation with, "if you just set aside the support for genocide for a moment." He is certainly passionate about trains and presumably having them run on time. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 16, 2024 14:13
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:"Best domestic policies in a really long time" and Netanyahu wants trump elected. This. There really isn't much Biden can do with two sides that are both getting what they want.
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May 16, 2024 14:18
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ColdPie posted:The I/P thing really sucks because this admin has done a boatload of great stuff and is easily the best and most progressive presidency of my lifetime, but it's really really hard to start that conversation with, "if you just set aside the support for genocide for a moment." Well, it's one of the least important issue to most americans  But maybe the polls are wrong about that too
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May 16, 2024 14:18
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Boris Galerkin posted:It could also be people who blame Biden because he didn't do enough, like packing the courts or whatever. See : the uninformed.
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May 16, 2024 14:31
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I’m baffled at this site really thinking I/P is some slam dunk loss for Biden among young people. I am not really young anymore, but I am under thirty, and I am taking two undergrad classes at UNT. The vast majority of actual young people think the protests are annoying, with variants between “please get out of my way, I just want to go to class, this is useless” even among pro-Palestine people to “good” when the cops come. Then factor in this is already the least likely demographic to vote, and the angriest were probably not voting Biden anyway, soviet elsa fucked around with this message at 14:42 on May 16, 2024 |
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May 16, 2024 14:39
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Aren't you that guy that keeps making up various outlandish details about his life? Not sure we should take your anecdotal observations into account if so.
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May 16, 2024 15:21
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soviet elsa posted:I’m baffled at this site really thinking I/P is some slam dunk loss for Biden among young people. I am not really young anymore, but I am under thirty, and I am taking two undergrad classes at UNT. The vast majority of actual young people think the protests are annoying, with variants between “please get out of my way, I just want to go to class, this is useless” even among pro-Palestine people to “good” when the cops come. Okay, that’s what you’ve said you’ve seen, but it is not supported in the actual polling on the issue.
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May 16, 2024 15:22
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soviet elsa posted:I’m baffled at this site really thinking I/P is some slam dunk loss for Biden among young people. I am not really young anymore, but I am under thirty, and I am taking two undergrad classes at UNT. The vast majority of actual young people think the protests are annoying, with variants between “please get out of my way, I just want to go to class, this is useless” even among pro-Palestine people to “good” when the cops come. That's generally the mood I am seeing too. It's angry fundamentalism in a different wrapper, like the worst of the worst anti-abortion people. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 16, 2024 15:23
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AsInHowe posted:That's generally the mood I am seeing too. It's angry fundamentalism in a different wrapper, like the worst of the worst anti-abortion people. I do not believe these are equivalent causes.
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May 16, 2024 15:24
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AsInHowe posted:That's generally the mood I am seeing too. It's angry fundamentalism in a different wrapper, like the worst of the worst anti-abortion people. I think this is an interesting comparison because angry anti-abortion crusaders point at millions of imaginary dead children, and angry anti-genocide crusaders point at thousands of actual dead children, and somehow these are comparable complaints? It feels like you maybe didn’t think this take through! Not to mention that the anti-abortion folks are very, very likely to be 100% aligned with the current strategy of propping up Israeli Trump and his genocide. I don’t think that’s a very good comparison. I think maybe some of the fundamental realities on the ground make the two pretty different; especially since we’ve made it almost impossible for federal tax money to fund an abortion, and almost impossible to prevent federal tax money from being spent on genocide.
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May 16, 2024 15:27
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Yeah the student protestors sitting in tents on the lawn are just like these swivel eyed lunatics attacking clinics and maiming doctors, seems like a hard comparison to swallow. The "violent student protestors" would have been dealt with by the police I believe by now, and many of these demonstrations are still on-going.
Nonsense fucked around with this message at 15:31 on May 16, 2024 |
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May 16, 2024 15:28
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JosefStalinator posted:It's tough to imagine many swing voters are supporting Trump because they think Biden destroyed abortion rights. It's almost entirely non-voters or people voting Biden/Trump for other reasons. TheDeadlyShoe posted:i would guess the 17% who blame Biden for Roe are probably right wingers who saw the words 'blame ... Biden' and stopped thinking I don't think it's people thinking that Biden himself destroyed abortion rights, so much as it's people thinking that he could have definitely stopped Roe from being overturned if he really wanted to, and therefore the decisive factor in the overturn of Roe was his refusal to simply block the overturn from happening. I wish I could say that this was solely due to people who don't understand politics blindly assuming that the current president tells the Supreme Court what to do. But the reality is that even this thread has seen a fair few posts asserting that the Dems share a significant portion of culpability in Dobbs because they didn't codify Roe in 2009, or because they didn't codify it in 2022, or because they didn't declare the Supreme Court illegitimate and pack it, or because they didn't declare that Dobbs should simply be ignored by the government, or whatever. And of course there's plenty of that poo poo on Twitter and other social media too. There are people out there who are interested enough in US politics to be posting in politics discussion spaces for fun in their free time, yet are seemingly more interested in hurling blame for Dobbs at the Democrats than at the Republicans. It's not very many people, no, but it's enough that I'm not terribly shocked to see a low double-digit percentage of self-proclaimed Democrats blaming Biden for Dobbs. ColdPie posted:The I/P thing really sucks because this admin has done a boatload of great stuff and is easily the best and most progressive presidency of my lifetime, but it's really really hard to start that conversation with, "if you just set aside the support for genocide for a moment." If this isn't your first US election ever, then you should already have plenty of practice convincing yourself and possibly others to vote for candidates who were a lot less progressive and substantially more pro-genocide.
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May 16, 2024 15:34
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Joe Biden’s career long belief in Zionism is unique even compared to men like Harry Truman, and he has been an enthusiastic participant in and supporter of Israel’s decades long genocidal campaign against the Palestinian people, long, long before this latest phase.
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May 16, 2024 15:38
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Boris Galerkin posted:It could also be people who blame Biden because he didn't do enough, like packing the courts or whatever. I feel that if you know what court packing is in the first place you are sufficiently politically informed to understand how and why Roe was overturned and that it wasn't Biden's fault
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May 16, 2024 15:39
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Nonsense posted:Yeah the student protestors sitting in tents on the lawn are just like these swivel eyed lunatics attacking clinics and maiming doctors, seems like a hard comparison to swallow. The "violent student protestors" would have been dealt with by the police I believe by now, and many of these demonstrations are still on-going. Many parts of the general American public are kind of rotten and willfully ignorant of world events. I wouldn't direct too much ire at what soviet elsa is saying since it just seems like an observation. This kind of reminds me of how a majority of American people in the 1960s in favor of the War in Vietnam until 1968? Aside from the personal stakes that came for many Baby Boomers of potentially getting drafted, it only became unpopular when it started sinking in that it was not a war the US going to win with effort it was willing to put in. You guys probably have better article examples, but this came up with some quick Googling. https://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/07/opinion/l-polls-tell-us-no-more-than-where-we-are-vietnam-war-opinion-139188.html I feel like we kind of have a similar dynamic here. A lot of people agree that the situation sucks, but a good percentage of people don't want to hear about it and among the people willing to think about it, there isn't a great critical mass agreement on the way to resolve it.
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May 16, 2024 15:39
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Nucleic Acids posted:Okay, that’s what you’ve said you’ve seen, but it is not supported in the actual polling on the issue. Here's some actual polling on the issue zoux posted:Well, it's one of the least important issue to most americans
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May 16, 2024 15:40
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A bunch of pro-Biden ads locally focus on abortion, which fair, but if he could cut some ads tooting all the consumer protection stuff that got passed recently that would be even better
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May 16, 2024 15:44
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:A bunch of pro-Biden ads locally focus on abortion, which fair, but if he could cut some ads tooting all the consumer protection stuff that got passed recently that would be even better Speaking of: https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1791108742357848097 Thomas, of all people, writing the opinion affirming the constitutionality of the CFPB
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May 16, 2024 15:45
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