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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Ubik_Lives
Nov 16, 2012
I imagine it’s due to the volume requirements of artillery. If you’re making a million dollar missile to go on a jet where every percentage difference of weight and performance matters, then you get to crack out the fancy stuff. If you want to get as many booms as possible for as little money as possible, you go for explosives you go for something that has a core competent that you just grow on a farm.

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I dont know
Aug 9, 2003

That Guy here...

Hannibal Rex posted:

Nothing will ever beat using My Generation in an ad for life insurance.

Both a cruise line and a bank have done ads using Lust for Life, a song about being strung out on heroin and debauchery.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Charliegrs posted:

Doesn't a major component in western artillery rounds come from China? I can't remember what it is I think something to do with cotton. I find that completely insane. First of all I'm surprised that Putin hasn't convinced Xi to stop selling it to Western countries. And like what if the US goes to war with China someday? Surely then we would be cut off. Although I'm not sure how much of a role artillery would play in a war like that. Still it's absolute madness that we allow an enemy state to be our supplier for a critical military component.

China is a war profiteer, they're happy to sell all the cotton they can. I don't think Putin could convince them to sell us less stuff lol.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Deltasquid posted:

Yes, cotton-based cellulose, but I think it's a risk for Europe rather than the USA. But they're well aware of the dependency and rotating away from China as a supplier, and trying to create a wood-based alternative: https://www.politico.eu/article/saab-ceo-warns-against-reliance-china-make-weapons-europe/

NB it's not 'trying to create' in the sense of having to invent new technology, it's all well understood and tried. Our forest industry can make it like any other pulp products, and they are quite keen to receive orders because of current production overcapacity in some areas.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost
WSJ reports that Russia has been looking into anti-satellite weapons: Russia Launched Research Spacecraft for Antisatellite Nuclear Weapon Two Years Ago, U.S. Officials Say

This seems... not great

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

jaete posted:

WSJ reports that Russia has been looking into anti-satellite weapons: Russia Launched Research Spacecraft for Antisatellite Nuclear Weapon Two Years Ago, U.S. Officials Say

This seems... not great

The Clanciest of chats.

If the russia does anything with nukes on the ground, it'll escalate support for Ukraine, possibly to no-fly zone levels (but that's another conversation).
If they use a nuke in space, it's globalthermonuclear war territory. Or at least declared war--a nuke will not discriminate what satellites it takes out, and that's a direct attack on American and European infrastructure. Reprisal will be guaranteed and harsh.


So yeah, I wouldn't worry about antisat nukes. Bigger concern are terrestrial-based jammers.

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002
If Russia figures out how to jam satellite signal over Ukraine/Russia instead of destroying them, nothing's going to happen. Nobody's going to go to war with Russia over that poo poo.

d64
Jan 15, 2003

jaete posted:

WSJ reports that Russia has been looking into anti-satellite weapons: Russia Launched Research Spacecraft for Antisatellite Nuclear Weapon Two Years Ago, U.S. Officials Say

This seems... not great
Here is someone's writing on this thing https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4793/1

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Nitrox posted:

If Russia figures out how to jam satellite signal over Ukraine/Russia instead of destroying them, nothing's going to happen. Nobody's going to go to war with Russia over that poo poo.

Right, which is why they're a bigger concern--it's actually being actively used to greater or lesser effect. Real threat will always beat a theoretical.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

OAquinas posted:

The Clanciest of chats.

If the russia does anything with nukes on the ground, it'll escalate support for Ukraine, possibly to no-fly zone levels (but that's another conversation).
If they use a nuke in space, it's globalthermonuclear war territory. Or at least declared war--a nuke will not discriminate what satellites it takes out, and that's a direct attack on American and European infrastructure. Reprisal will be guaranteed and harsh.


So yeah, I wouldn't worry about antisat nukes. Bigger concern are terrestrial-based jammers.

Antisat nukes just sounds to me like dick wagging and saber rattling to make big news with scary words. If they wanted to start bonking satellites and loving with other countries I can't imagine why they would use hilariously indiscriminate nuclear payloads over just having a kinetic strike. A satellite isn't going anywhere or dodging anything. poo poo a bunch of them are geostationary! They go nowhere, at all, by design!

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC
The Russian winter offensive has continued through spring and it looks like it will not stop at any point during the summer. With half a million men along the front line, this may be the beginning of the end for the Ukrainians. Putin has made it clear that he intends to make Russia bleed as much as necessary to win this war, and the Russian people appear to be going along with it just fine. With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

"The outlook for Ukraine is bleak"

quote:

Over the past few days, Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border, occupying a number of villages. Ukraine has spent several months fortifying Kharkiv, but storming the city is not how Russia intends to fight. The Russian target this summer is the Ukrainian army, and against this target it has started to compound its advantages.

....

Having stretched the Ukrainians out, the contours of the Russian summer offensive are easy to discern. First, there will be the push against Kharkiv. Ukraine must commit troops to defend its second largest city, and given the size of the Russian group of forces in the area, this will draw in reserves of critical materiel, from air defences to artillery. Second, Russia will apply pressure on the other end of the line, initially threatening to reverse Ukraine’s gains from its 2023 offensive, and secondly putting at risk the city of Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine should be able to blunt this attack, but this will require the commitment of reserve units.

....

Once Ukraine commits its reserves in these directions, the main effort will see the expansion of the Russian push in Donbas. This axis is already making slow but steady progress. The objective is clear: to cut Ukrainian supply lines connecting Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk. The Russians hope that once Ukraine loses these roads that give the AFU localised interior lines, they will be able to push north and south, stranding Ukrainian artillery on one axis or the other. Russia’s aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough, but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometre by kilometre, along the front.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

bird food bathtub posted:

Antisat nukes just sounds to me like dick wagging and saber rattling to make big news with scary words. If they wanted to start bonking satellites and loving with other countries I can't imagine why they would use hilariously indiscriminate nuclear payloads over just having a kinetic strike. A satellite isn't going anywhere or dodging anything. poo poo a bunch of them are geostationary! They go nowhere, at all, by design!

Ehhhh

Kinetic kill vehicles are tricky to fire and hit, especially if you wanted to shoot a bunch of satellites. Plus they form a shrapnel belt that makes space rather dangerous (more than usual) to send your own satellites and people up. A nuke kill would just fry the electronics, leaving the intact satellite in orbit (until it decays). Much cleaner, though it still makes things inhospitable for a while due to radiation.

Plus I'm gonna quibble with you on geostationary. They move! They're constantly falling out of the sky...they just move laterally fast enough to keep missing the ground and maintain their relative altitude. LEO satellites move much faster (relative to the ground) and while they can't exactly dodge it's still a high velocity encounter that requires precise timing with the kill vehicle.

Basically, mass satellite kills are equivalent to hanging a sign on the atmosphere saying "space is closed" for a few years.


That said, I agree with you that it's just empty sabre rattling and dick swinging for the TV presenters to crow about.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




NATO may be sending trainers into Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

MikeC posted:

The Russian winter offensive has continued through spring and it looks like it will not stop at any point during the summer. With half a million men along the front line, this may be the beginning of the end for the Ukrainians. Putin has made it clear that he intends to make Russia bleed as much as necessary to win this war, and the Russian people appear to be going along with it just fine. With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

"The outlook for Ukraine is bleak"

Not sure on what basis you think Trump will win. That’s far from decided right now and the polls are misleading. I’m not saying Biden is guaranteed to win but it’s far from guaranteed that Trump will either.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

I'd rate the odds of this both happening and being a NATO effort rather than the act of a standalone sovereign nation (or a few) as rather low. The article highlights a lot of the reasons why NATO is highly unlikely to authorize such an official NATO mission.

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Kraftwerk posted:

Not sure on what basis you think Trump will win. That’s far from decided right now and the polls are misleading. I’m not saying Biden is guaranteed to win but it’s far from guaranteed that Trump will either.

I think Trump stands a good chance of winning but I don't think he'll necessarily support Ukraine any less than Biden has, especially if he tries to make a bigly bargain with Putin and gets rejected. Trump winning might even produce a better outcome for Ukraine: Putin could be willing to make significant concessions (probably not Crimea, but a genuine long term end to the war) if the alternative is pissing Trump off and locking in bipartisan US support for Ukraine forever. It's pointless to presume with certainty what Trump will do, not even Trump knows

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

MikeC posted:

this may be the beginning of the end for the Ukrainians... many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

What do you mean by sneering, and don't you think it is in bad taste to editorialize with such dramatic language? Of course there's still many questionable things of substance, like how simply outnumbering your opponent in pure manpower doesn't gaurantee victory, but does gaurantee a high cost. But it's hard to discuss that substance past the veneer.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

MikeC posted:

The Russian winter offensive has continued through spring and it looks like it will not stop at any point during the summer. With half a million men along the front line, this may be the beginning of the end for the Ukrainians. Putin has made it clear that he intends to make Russia bleed as much as necessary to win this war, and the Russian people appear to be going along with it just fine. With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

"The outlook for Ukraine is bleak"

"people sneering at the start"? what are you talking about? you mean the first weeks of the war when kyiv was surrounded on three sides and the optimistic line was that the insurgency would make the occupation/puppet government untenable? all the "sneering" celebratory posts about the first land war in europe in three generations because people were sure the ukrainians were going to win?

i find the thread's tendency to extreme optimism grating, but imagine getting so invested in a posting beef that seeing daily casualties reaching new highs is a clear opportunity to get one up on your posting enemies

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

there have been indications for a while now that the brits have special forces on the ground in an advising/training role without fundamentally changing the conflict. even if there was a larger western presence on the ground, i'm not sure how large it would have to get before it becomes a significant factor in the war

Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

OAquinas posted:

Ehhhh

Kinetic kill vehicles are tricky to fire and hit, especially if you wanted to shoot a bunch of satellites. Plus they form a shrapnel belt that makes space rather dangerous (more than usual) to send your own satellites and people up. A nuke kill would just fry the electronics, leaving the intact satellite in orbit (until it decays). Much cleaner, though it still makes things inhospitable for a while due to radiation.

Plus I'm gonna quibble with you on geostationary. They move! They're constantly falling out of the sky...they just move laterally fast enough to keep missing the ground and maintain their relative altitude. LEO satellites move much faster (relative to the ground) and while they can't exactly dodge it's still a high velocity encounter that requires precise timing with the kill vehicle.

Basically, mass satellite kills are equivalent to hanging a sign on the atmosphere saying "space is closed" for a few years.


That said, I agree with you that it's just empty sabre rattling and dick swinging for the TV presenters to crow about.

Uh..

Geostationary orbit is about 35,000 km out. The exosphere starts at 600 km and ends at (depending who you ask) 10,000 km.

Not sure what exactly is going to be radioactive here, aside from the debris. Given that space is Empty, and the energy released in a nuclear explosion will go in every direction, it's pretty unlikely that you'd get any other satellites, or that you'd leave an area contaminated?

Kessler syndrome isn't great but at that distance it's much, much less worrying.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


MikeC posted:

The Russian winter offensive has continued through spring and it looks like it will not stop at any point during the summer. With half a million men along the front line, this may be the beginning of the end for the Ukrainians. Putin has made it clear that he intends to make Russia bleed as much as necessary to win this war, and the Russian people appear to be going along with it just fine. With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

"The outlook for Ukraine is bleak"

That's not what I gathered from the article, if anything yes they'll be able push further into Ukraine but as far as I can tell it's not like they're going have their armed forces completely destroyed and surrender.

And Trump is absolutely not certainly winning 2024. If you look at it dry as possible they are basically both tied in polls and betting markets.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






MikeC posted:

The Russian winter offensive has continued through spring and it looks like it will not stop at any point during the summer. With half a million men along the front line, this may be the beginning of the end for the Ukrainians. Putin has made it clear that he intends to make Russia bleed as much as necessary to win this war, and the Russian people appear to be going along with it just fine. With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

"The outlook for Ukraine is bleak"

Ah yes and the most important thing is that you will have been right and everyone else wrong, and everyone will have to apologize for ever having doubted you.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

Flavahbeast posted:

I think Trump stands a good chance of winning but I don't think he'll necessarily support Ukraine any less than Biden has, especially if he tries to make a bigly bargain with Putin and gets rejected.

This is utterly wrong. Trump will cut all support to Ukraine AND NATO and tell Ukraine to surrender.


Trump will not listen to anyone except Putin who he follows slavishly.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Comstar posted:

This is utterly wrong. Trump will cut all support to Ukraine AND NATO and tell Ukraine to surrender.


Trump will not listen to anyone except Putin who he follows slavishly.

This is utterly wrong. Trump will not listen to anyone but Trump who he follows slavishly.


Seriously, Putin can absolutely gently caress it up if his ego is too big and pisses off Trump. Trump does not care about anyone but himself, doesn't want to share the spotlight with anyone at all.

jettisonedstuff
Apr 9, 2006

MikeC posted:

With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

How much egg are we talking, here? Will it be more than the amount of cum in your pants?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Freudian slippers
Jun 23, 2009
US Goon shocked and appalled to find that world is a dirty, unjust place

MikeC posted:

The Russian winter offensive has continued through spring and it looks like it will not stop at any point during the summer. With half a million men along the front line, this may be the beginning of the end for the Ukrainians. Putin has made it clear that he intends to make Russia bleed as much as necessary to win this war, and the Russian people appear to be going along with it just fine. With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.

"The outlook for Ukraine is bleak"

This is over the top, even for you, and the sheer glee of the last sentence is disgusting. You're usually better at covering up, but the mask slipped here.

Freudian slippers fucked around with this message at 07:37 on May 17, 2024

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Freudian slippers posted:

This is over the top, even for you, and the sheer glee of the last sentence is disgusting. You're usually better at covering up, but the mask slipped here.

The mask has slipped a few times on MikeC in these threads.

I thought it was obvious he's a pro Putin/Russia troll at this point?

Gravitas Shortfall
Jul 17, 2007

Utility is seven-eighths Proximity.


PC LOAD LETTER posted:

The mask has slipped a few times on MikeC in these threads.

I thought it was obvious he's a pro Putin/Russia troll at this point?

everyone in D&D is posting in good faith and to suggest otherwise is an offense

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Freudian slippers posted:

This is over the top, even for you, and the sheer glee of the last sentence is disgusting. You're usually better at covering up, but the mask slipped here.

He had a mask? :wow:

Some people can be talked to, for everything else there is the Ignore Button.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






PC LOAD LETTER posted:

The mask has slipped a few times on MikeC in these threads.

I thought it was obvious he's a pro Putin/Russia troll at this point?

Time will tell 👀


I think he's just salty that we didn't go along with his Mearsheimer Realism.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

MikeC posted:

With Trump almost certainly winning 2024, many people sneering at the start might have a lot of egg on their face.]
This is wild. The Russo-Ukraine war is not a priority for the average American voter. Abortion is much more important and look at the results in Ohio from November 23 even though the state has shifted red over the past 10 years. Or check out the GOP primary results with Niki Haley getting 15%+ of the vote even though Trump is a sort of an incumbent and Haley dropped out more than a month ago. If 5% of those Haley Republicans thought "gently caress it I'm not leaving my house in November" Trump is hosed.

Trump won in 2016 by extremely thin margins and lost the popular vote. Biden isn't shoo in but Trump is working at an extreme disadvantage.

Szarrukin
Sep 29, 2021

Flavahbeast posted:

Trump winning might even produce a better outcome for Ukraine: Putin could be willing to make significant concessions (probably not Crimea, but a genuine long term end to the war) if the alternative is pissing Trump off and locking in bipartisan US support for Ukraine forever. It's pointless to presume with certainty what Trump will do, not even Trump knows

Didn't he already said that he doesn't give a flying gently caress for Eastern Europe and if it isn't able to defend itself, it isn't his problem?

Scratch Monkey
Oct 25, 2010

👰Proč bychom se netěšili🥰když nám Pán Bůh🙌🏻zdraví dá💪?
Instead of kinetic energy weapons to obliterate satellites has there ever been studies into nudging them out of orbit

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Scratch Monkey posted:

Instead of kinetic energy weapons to obliterate satellites has there ever been studies into nudging them out of orbit

There have at least been studies about extending lifetime of satellites by having a separate thing grab them and move them. Now it's not quite the same thing since in the hostile case the target may resist,.but there is some overlap...

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


OddObserver posted:

There have at least been studies about extending lifetime of satellites by having a separate thing grab them and move them. Now it's not quite the same thing since in the hostile case the target may resist,.but there is some overlap...
There's a new company that is developing a spacecraft that is focused on delivering exactly that kind of thing:
New space company seeks to solve orbital mobility with high delta-v spacecraft

To be fair...
Feb 3, 2006
Film Producer

Flavahbeast posted:

I think Trump stands a good chance of winning but I don't think he'll necessarily support Ukraine any less than Biden has, especially if he tries to make a bigly bargain with Putin and gets rejected. Trump winning might even produce a better outcome for Ukraine: Putin could be willing to make significant concessions (probably not Crimea, but a genuine long term end to the war) if the alternative is pissing Trump off and locking in bipartisan US support for Ukraine forever. It's pointless to presume with certainty what Trump will do, not even Trump knows

Given how world events are- Trump believes Putin’s lies about the homonazis in Ukraine and triples down on Ukrainian support with the carrier group in the Black Sea. “There are good people on both sides.”

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Trump believes whatever he heard last and sounds good to him. It will probably not be a good thing for Ukraine if he is in office, but that also does not directly lead to a Russian victory. If conservatives (people in his cabinet) can somewhow convince him that he will profit or look good by supporting Ukraine, there is a strong possibility US support will not waiver.

Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 13:49 on May 17, 2024

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

DTurtle posted:

There's a new company that is developing a spacecraft that is focused on delivering exactly that kind of thing:
New space company seeks to solve orbital mobility with high delta-v spacecraft
The one I was thinking was the Grumman MEV, which was tested twice.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Dick Ripple posted:

Trump believes whatever he heard last and sounds good to him. It will probably not be a good thing for Ukraine if he is in office, but that also does not directly lead to a Russian victory. If conservatives (people in his cabinet) can somewhow convince him that he will profit or look good by supporting Ukraine, there is a strong possibility US support will not waiver.


On the other hand, he sided with Putin over FBI in the Helsinki summit. There is something super weird about his attitude towards him

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Prism
Dec 22, 2007

yospos

Just Another Lurker posted:

He had a mask? :wow:

Some people can be talked to, for everything else there is the Ignore Button.

Regrettably, it is not legal to use the ignore button as you will be told you need to reply to them if they ‘bring up points’ to your posts.

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