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sean10mm posted:I mean their AG ran on "I will put Trump in jail as soon as he's out of office" so yeah, not a shocker there lmao Yeah but upstate and NYC are two entirely different places. Upstate is generally Trump Country and pretty bad.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:13
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Jaxyon posted:
No, Upstate is generally a midwestern state, e.g. swing.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:18
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Elotana posted:Regarding that list, including Jared Golden in a list of M4A supporters is bullshit. He did the same "M4A is the destination" schtick as Buttigieg and Harris in 2019, and in 2020 he flat-out ran away from it. Grouchio fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 21:19
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e: thanks! 
Majorian fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 21:20
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Pick posted:I mean, to some degree we know it at least can't be consistent policies. Trump completely flipped the republican party on free trade, the Iraq war, and isolationism. In like a year. These aren't minor things, these were defining issues as they relate to the party. Honestly, I really would like to see this talked about more, because it's literally insane. There's always that "only Nixon can go to China", element, but this was way more than that. It really can't be emphasized enough, Republicans love Free Trade. And who would've thought the 2nd Republican president elected after 9/11 would've been able to effectively argue in favor of pulling out of middle-east? It's completely bonkers.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:49
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did trump flip them on it, or did obama flip them on it through the power of contrarianism
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Nov 17, 2020 21:51
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-Blackadder- posted:Honestly, I really would like to see this talked about more, because it's literally insane. There's always that "only Nixon can go to China", element, but this was way more than that. It really can't be emphasized enough, Republicans love Free Trade. And who would've thought the 2nd Republican president elected after 9/11 would've been able to effectively argue in favor of pulling out of middle-east? It's completely bonkers. Only if magnifying the drone murder program by 10x and amping up the conflict in Yemen counts as "pulling out" somehow.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:53
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Trump literally campaigned on how 9/11 was George W. Bush's fault, and suddenly all the Republicans lined up behind him on that? Again, this is pretty telling I think, about how fungible people's ostensible political values are.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:53
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The stats back up the idea that Republicans, overall, do not actually care about policy, and are more than happy to flip which policies they do and don't support as soon as they're told to do so. Democrats are significantly less responsive to such abrupt changes. Of course I wish I could post those stats, but the only place I can find that links them is on WaPo right now and I don't feel like putting in the effort to bypass their paywall. It used to be easy to google but I guess it isn't any more? Maybe someone here still has some of the studies.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:56
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sean10mm posted:Only if magnifying the drone murder program by 10x and amping up the conflict in Yemen counts as "pulling out" somehow. He effectively argued it. Doing it is a completely different question.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:56
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I think people's opinions are more malleable on foreign policy issues where most people don't have deeply held convictions. I don't have the stats handy, but I'd wager that most Democrats approve of Obama's actions in Libya, etc., whereas if a Republican did the same thing they would disapprove. It's only when you get to culture war issues that a party can start to alienate its base.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:59
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Majorian posted:I remember watching SNL as a kid in the early 90's and them putting on sketches like this all the time:  
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Nov 17, 2020 22:00
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Hellblazer187 posted:
The rural white voter doesn't want to be saved, they want to drag the liberals screaming into hell with them because they resent that the world has passed them by and changed around them. quote:We found town managers and elected officials who were frustrated over the generalized anger toward Washington because it inhibited practical solutions from being pursued. These officials knew they had to secure grants from the federal government, for instance, but found it difficult to do that when local elections were won by far-right candidates.
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Nov 17, 2020 22:02
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-Blackadder- posted:Honestly, I really would like to see this talked about more, because it's literally insane. There's always that "only Nixon can go to China", element, but this was way more than that. It really can't be emphasized enough, Republicans love Free Trade. And who would've thought the 2nd Republican president elected after 9/11 would've been able to effectively argue in favor of pulling out of middle-east? It's completely bonkers. I've posted in D&D about this before but my whole life Republicans have been the Free Trade party in every way. It was literally the raison d'etre of the Libertarian movement. Yes, Clinton and Obama signed treaties but those were after YEARS for pressure from republicans. I've had a number of Trump supporters who say that they like Trump for his classical liberalism and it's amazing. Not to mention cheap immigrant or offshore labor being the best thing ever. Somehow the right has taken their big party platform wins and turned them into Democratic party albatrosses. It's like Mater gaslighting McQueen, "Don't you remember, you was there!" What?
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Nov 17, 2020 22:08
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Oracle posted:The rural white voter doesn't want to be saved, they want to drag the liberals screaming into hell with them because they resent that the world has passed them by and changed around them.  Yeah people in rural places can vote very badly, but it's bit like saying "the cornered animal doesn't want to be freed, it just wants to bite everyone." People in lovely situations lash out. Edit: And even still, 30+% of white rural voters are still voting for change and progress. I don't believe in leaving them behind economically either. The left needs a platform that helps all of the working class. (And then the left needs to take over the Democratic party).
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Nov 17, 2020 22:16
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It's because the party has A) A cult of personality B) a social and televised media bubble where any position can be bolstered with made up informatin C) a huge driving force of social insecurity among scared whites The party is living on fear and will believe anything the Strong Daddy says. Saying that can gain Republicans to leftist causes if you frame it right is true. The right framing is "the right Republican has to say it" Hellblazer187 posted:
People who are lovely situations who are white vote for Trump. Making broad statements like this without a racial qualifier makes it sound like the only important poors are poor whites.
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Nov 17, 2020 22:16
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Jaxyon posted:People who are lovely situations who are white vote for Trump. The rural vote is 90+% white. We were talking specifically about the rural vote. Please don't take a small part of the conversation we were having and turn it into something it isn't. It should be obvious from everything else I've said over the last few pages I do not support ignoring anybody's plights.
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Nov 17, 2020 22:20
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sean10mm posted:Only if magnifying the drone murder program by 10x and amping up the conflict in Yemen counts as "pulling out" somehow. Yeah. For them it was very much was, because that's not all he did. Here's a great, extremely pro-read article about the Truman Show/Kabuki Theater that then Secretary of Defense Mattis and Chief of Staff John Kelly had going with Congress, The Pentagon, The State Department, and basically anyone else that Trump knew to get Trump not to "pull out" of Syria. -Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 22:26
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Hellblazer187 posted:The rural vote is 90+% white. We were talking specifically about the rural vote. Please don't take a small part of the conversation we were having and turn it into something it isn't. It should be obvious from everything else I've said over the last few pages I do not support ignoring anybody's plights. What about outreach to get the sizeable chunk of non-white rural voters? Rural Navajo came through big for Biden in Arizona.
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Nov 17, 2020 22:53
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brugroffil posted:What about outreach to get the sizeable chunk of non-white rural voters? It's a great idea to do as well. I reject the idea that it's an either/or. Most of the same economic policies would help the poor of any race, urban or rural. I'm not sure why "we shouldn't completely abandon trying to win the white rural vote" is taken as "we absolutely should abandon several other demographics" when I've said nothing of the sort.
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Nov 17, 2020 22:58
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Trump gave "farmers" (really rich land owners but it worked as a totem) billions upon billions of dollars with no authorization. Do that. Send people checks, give them jobs. They'll vote for you! Patronage politics works, and it's morally good!
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Nov 17, 2020 23:04
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it seems likely that wiping out student loans would increase the uneducated voter resentment against the democratic party because it seems like a big driver of their current voting is resentment against college-educated 'elites' that said, it might be along the lines of increasing the resentment of african-americans towards the republican party based on trump's open racism; not a lot of room left to lose
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Nov 17, 2020 23:15
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brugroffil posted:Trump gave "farmers" (really rich land owners but it worked as a totem) billions upon billions of dollars with no authorization. Agreed. It works especially well when you sign your name on the check in big letters.
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Nov 17, 2020 23:16
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brugroffil posted:What about outreach to get the sizeable chunk of non-white rural voters? This is a good point. With the asterisk that we should recall most people claiming indigenous ancestry live in urban environments: IIRC the Indian country vote is not monolithic or all that amenable to generalizations in the national context. That may be exacerbated by a lack of trust - a whole lot of people on the rez do not trust either party to give a poo poo about them. While trying to check myself on that, data I've seen cited a lot comes from the crosstabs on the Latino Decisions election eve poll. I don't know enough to say one way or the other whether it's good data. https://latinodecisions.com/polls-and-research/american-election-eve-poll-2020/ Being as the candidate with the most robust platform addressing native issues was probably Elizabeth Warren's, I suspect that there are a lot of gettable votes there if someone would credibly attempt to address tribal concerns. I also suspect the vote suppression efforts hit native peoples pretty hard. eviltastic fucked around with this message at 23:22 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 23:19
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Hellblazer187 posted:And all of the policy discussion just completely blows past AOC's other major complaints about the old guard party - the lack of digital and in person organizing. I don't think you need to adopt AOC's policy positions to adopt her electoral tactics. Knock doors, buy big digital ad buys, spend less on TV and grifting consultants. VitalSigns posted:And yet minimum wage, which black people also get, scored 60+% of the vote in Florida while the Florida Democratic Party got wiped out I think it's more likely that the minimum wage increase succeeded specifically because it was on its own ballot initiative, and does not imply that a voter who voted in favor of the minimum wage would necessarily vote for a Democratic candidate in general because that candidate might also support gun control or abortion or [whatever other dealbreaker issue that causes them to vote Republican in the first place]. Aruan posted:Nobody is saying that progressive candidates can't do well, but we have zero evidence that: 1. progressive candidates did better in red districts in contrast to centrist Democrats, 2. Democratic losses in flipped 2018 red seats have anything to do with issues, 3. this election was meaningfully about health care in any significant way, and - and this is the most important one - 4. that general support of policies translates into voting for specific candidates. In fact, what evidence we do have (and I use "evidence" lightly here, since we're talking about a sample size of less than ten seats with virtually no data, today, about how people voted) is that centrist candidates (i.e. Spanberger) were able to keep their seats in Republican districts and progressive candidates running on very progressive platforms in red states got blown out (West Virginia). What this would suggest, then, is: there is no grand narrative linking policy position to how well or how poorly House candidates did. NoDamage fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 23:30
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eviltastic posted:This is a good point. With the asterisk that we should recall most people claiming indigenous ancestry live in urban environments: IIRC the Indian country vote is not monolithic or all that amenable to generalizations in the national context. That may be exacerbated by a lack of trust - a whole lot of people on the rez do not trust either party to give a poo poo about them. While trying to check myself on that, data I've seen cited a lot comes from the crosstabs on the Latino Decisions election eve poll. I don't know enough to say one way or the other whether it's good data. https://latinodecisions.com/polls-and-research/american-election-eve-poll-2020/ There's plenty of non-white rural vote in the south, too.
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Nov 17, 2020 23:35
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eviltastic posted:This is a good point. With the asterisk that we should recall most people claiming indigenous ancestry live in urban environments: IIRC the Indian country vote is not monolithic or all that amenable to generalizations in the national context. That may be exacerbated by a lack of trust - a whole lot of people on the rez do not trust either party to give a poo poo about them. While trying to check myself on that, data I've seen cited a lot comes from the crosstabs on the Latino Decisions election eve poll. I don't know enough to say one way or the other whether it's good data. https://latinodecisions.com/polls-and-research/american-election-eve-poll-2020/ Of note here: BLM has been almost as much a native movement as a black movement (and in the SW the native stuff was really front and center, even relative to the rest of the country... where it's also been front and center, albeit a bit quietly so). Like AIM has pretty much been wedded to blm for years now because they very correctly intuited that where one goes, the other goes. Also (from what I've seen and from talking to cousins) the navajo/dine experience in particular in the SW is basically getting the double whammy of anti-mexican racism plus a ton of anti-indigenous racism on top of that and it's pretty loving intense and probably drat near 100% of people would say they've experienced both. I'd be exceptionally surprised if they weren't very directly on the receiving end of a bunch of misdirected ice harassment, as well. (not speaking authoritatively here, just from some proximity to things) Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 23:42
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Hellblazer187 posted:The rural vote is 90+% white. We were talking specifically about the rural vote. Please don't take a small part of the conversation we were having and turn it into something it isn't. It should be obvious from everything else I've said over the last few pages I do not support ignoring anybody's plights. The rural population is about 75% white(as of 2010). That's a big difference from what you've said. Hellblazer187 posted:It's a great idea to do as well. I reject the idea that it's an either/or. Most of the same economic policies would help the poor of any race, urban or rural. I'm not sure why "we shouldn't completely abandon trying to win the white rural vote" is taken as "we absolutely should abandon several other demographics" when I've said nothing of the sort. The issue is that the racial aspect is not a separable thing and huge part of people's politics. The racial part is the single biggest indicator of voting for Republicans in rural voters. Not income. That matters when you're making an argument that actually it's class that is pushing people towards trump, as you seem to be doing here: Hellblazer187 posted:Yeah people in rural places can vote very badly, but it's bit like saying "the cornered animal doesn't want to be freed, it just wants to bite everyone." People in lovely situations lash out. That sounds a lot like "fix race and you'll fix class" which is, at best, naive.
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Nov 18, 2020 00:15
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The coup attempt continues https://twitter.com/dananessel/stat...ingawful.com%2F
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Nov 18, 2020 00:40
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brugroffil posted:The coup attempt continues So why shouldn't I be freaking out that Trump could steal Michigan and some other states to steal the election from Biden with this poo poo?
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Nov 18, 2020 00:41
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Willo567 posted:So why shouldn't I be freaking out that Trump could steal Michigan and some other states to steal the election from Biden with this poo poo? Because their legal arguments are so loving stupid and evil intent so transparent that even the dumbest chud judge would rather vomit on their own genitals than accept their arguments.
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Nov 18, 2020 00:43
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Shammypants posted:Because their legal arguments are so loving stupid and evil intent so transparent that even the dumbest chud judge would rather vomit on their own genitals than accept their arguments. Isn't this what we've been fearing? That Republican electors would refuse to certify the results
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Nov 18, 2020 00:45
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What is the legal remedy to force a board of electors to certify an election if they just refuse?
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Nov 18, 2020 00:46
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The state will just certify, county boards doing this is usually just a formality.
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Nov 18, 2020 00:47
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pthighs posted:What is the legal remedy to force a board of electors to certify an election if they just refuse? They can be sued I imagine and eventually removed or forced to certify.
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Nov 18, 2020 00:47
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ShutteredIn posted:The state will just certify, county boards doing this is usually just a formality. Guess the state board split
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Nov 18, 2020 00:48
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/stat...ingawful.com%2F State level Dems are avoiding federal races because of the horrid leadership situation
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Nov 18, 2020 00:49
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1328832941309513729 Because they don't have any actual arguments and they're being laughed out of court. Since this one deadlocked it goes to the state board, and if the state board deadlocks it goes to the state court, and Michigan's courts have been throwing out Trump's poo poo constantly. I donno how to make you not worry, I worry too. But I worry because we're seeing a genuinely anti-democratic party here, something actually incompatible with democracy and governance. They're clownish and pathetic and have no legal merit, but these are people who are now putting their careers on the line because they don't like the election results; and they're making the calculation that they'll be okay doing it because their party has lost it. I might just stop paying attention for a while, cause it's the same story: Trumpists getting in the way of the government working because they don't like that Trump lost. So far, the government has continued to work regardless, and I'll just have to hope that it continues to.
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Nov 18, 2020 00:49
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brugroffil posted:Guess the state board split So that means Trump can actually steal Michigan. gently caress
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Nov 18, 2020 00:51
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Willo567 posted:So that means Trump can actually steal Michigan. He's not going to steal Michigan. If they don't certify at the state level it goes to the Courts where they will get laughed out of the room like what's happening everywhere else.
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Nov 18, 2020 00:52
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