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woke wedding drone posted:Well, let's see it! Since it's Virginia, wouldn't it probably just be Bob McDonnell stuff?
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Oct 4, 2016 22:26
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rkajdi posted:It barely matters. All that the hackers would need to do otherwise is just doctor up some files and pass them off as genuine. The tinfoil hat brigade is going believe the Russian propaganda machine over the Democrats anyway, and any thinking American has realized after the millionth hack on one side versus zero on the other (one if you count taxes) that this is either the other candidate/surrogate breaking the law or a foreign power trying to gently caress with our election for their own gain. Hillary openly accused Russia of it during the debates, and that passed by without a challenge in the media that I saw, though obviously Trump tried to challenge it immediately. Once that's in the public consciousness, how likely is anything that they leak going to really have an impact? Unless it's audio or video, like Romney's infamous 47% remarks, is anyone but partisans going to believe it?
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Oct 4, 2016 22:26
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Am I reading this wrong or is Reuters showing Clinton +13 nationally? 
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Oct 4, 2016 22:26
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Eschers Basement posted:Didn't work out well for Kennedy  Ps: GBS Mark III is good. For now.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:27
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davebo posted:It's a shame the USA is so large because security through obscurity works. When was the last time someone attacked Tahiti? The French apparently set off a nuke near them in 1996. Does that count? efb
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Oct 4, 2016 22:27
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canepazzo posted:Am I reading this wrong or is Reuters showing Clinton +13 nationally? Lol is this like the pro-clinton equivalent of the LA times tracking poll?
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Oct 4, 2016 22:28
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canepazzo posted:Am I reading this wrong or is Reuters showing Clinton +13 nationally? Add "Other" to Trump. It's the racists that don't want people to know they are racist, so they lie.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:29
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538 just had Ohio go blue 
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Oct 4, 2016 22:29
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canepazzo posted:Am I reading this wrong or is Reuters showing Clinton +13 nationally? When you filter it to "likely general election voter" it becomes Clinton +7
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Oct 4, 2016 22:31
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Mel Mudkiper posted:538 just had Ohio go blue drat, now I have to Arzy about like iowa or some poo poo.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:31
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Mel Mudkiper posted:538 just had Ohio go blue I'm not 100% sure why, the only Ohio poll to come out lately had Trump up 5. Extrapolating from national polls?
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Oct 4, 2016 22:32
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/CorrectRecord/status/783416892585377792
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Oct 4, 2016 22:33
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iospace posted:so the Pay to Play folder was real, BUT L M A O
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Oct 4, 2016 22:33
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Mel Mudkiper posted:538 just had Ohio go blue Only if you get your order without the sauce.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:33
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canepazzo posted:Am I reading this wrong or is Reuters showing Clinton +13 nationally? If you filter for very conservative males (the only people who actually matter.) you will see that it is actually 27-68. Just imagine that a third of the males who consider themselves "very conservative" would rather have a democrat woman than Trump. You should really filter for no tea party affiliation though. In that demographic she is leaning by 50 points! It's really cool how many filters there are on the Reuters poll. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Oct 4, 2016 |
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Oct 4, 2016 22:34
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iospace posted:so the Pay to Play folder was real, BUT help me i can't handle it
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Oct 4, 2016 22:34
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Night10194 posted:I'm not 100% sure why, the only Ohio poll to come out lately had Trump up 5. Extrapolating from national polls? Silver's "trendline adjustment" favours Clinton; it assumes that beyond the polls we have, Ohio is likely subject to the same shift as other states and the national numbers. The other aspect is, Ohio's in the coinflip zone right now. Every time 538 updates their list of polls, no matter how small a poll or what state it covers, they re-run their simulation of 20k virtual elections. This causes slight essentially random shifts in each state's odds every time they do this, which can push tossups back and forth over the line.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:37
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iospace posted:so the Pay to Play folder was real, BUT I see we are sliding into the Coen Bros. madcap comedy reality nicely.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:38
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Night10194 posted:I'm not 100% sure why, the only Ohio poll to come out lately had Trump up 5. Extrapolating from national polls? Yeah, really not seeing this one either. All the new polls are worse for Clinton than their previous iterations, and their three highest rated polls have Trump in the lead, as do four of the top five. All the pollsters showing good for Trump get either an A or A- rating, and the one for Clinton gets a B-. Must be the national trend.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:39
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Supercar Gautier posted:Silver's "trendline adjustment" favours Clinton; it assumes that beyond the polls we have, Ohio is likely subject to the same shift as other states and the national numbers.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:39
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The awesome part? Ohio doesn't matter in the least!
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Oct 4, 2016 22:40
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Crows Turn Off posted:I didn't think Polls-Only did that, though. Does it? It does. The only difference in polls plus is that he also adds numbers for the economic situation and other stuff like that.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:41
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I fully support tonight's hashtag #thrillainvanilla
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Oct 4, 2016 22:44
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Night10194 posted:The awesome part? Ohio doesn't matter in the least! a far cry from 2004
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Oct 4, 2016 22:46
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http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2016/10/cowardly_extremist_mike_pence_is_the_perfect_face_of_the_gop.html Slate, I know, but I think this got at why I find Pence so loving unbearable. He doesn't even have the courage to actually defend the poo poo he does; he tries to evade it.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:46
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In my own personal head-cannon the Virginia Dems set up a poorly secured computer with PAY TO PLAY folder in the root directory as a honey pot for Russian Hackers and then buried the stuff on Republicans several folders deep so that it wasn't immediately noticeable knowing it was only a matter of time before it got discovered by an "anonymous hacker."
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Oct 4, 2016 22:46
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Mel Mudkiper posted:538 just had Ohio go blue It's been blue in the Nowcast and borderline in the Polls Only for a few days, but now switched- it's still red in Polls Plus. E: That said NC has flipped blue in Polls Plus
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Oct 4, 2016 22:47
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Radish posted:In my own personal head-cannon the Virginia Dems set up a poorly secured computer with PAY TO PLAY folder in the root directory as a honey pot for Russian Hackers and then buried the stuff on Republicans several folders deep so that it wasn't immediately noticeable knowing it was only a matter of time before it got discovered by an "anonymous hacker." I cannot come up with an alternative to this that makes sense. If it's true then whoever did that is a genius.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:48
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Crows Turn Off posted:I didn't think Polls-Only did that, though. Does it? If you scroll down on a given state's page, you can see each adjustment the model makes, including the trendline adjustment and various demographic tweaks. These adjustments are included in all three models.
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Oct 4, 2016 22:51
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Ron Jeremy posted:I fully support tonight's hashtag #thrillainvanilla My greatest fear for tonight is a debate so bland that SNL has to chuck any plans to parody it and just has the SNL Band do a 7-minute jam session as filler. Though I suppose they could just do a skit "how we wish the VP debate had actually gone". Still going to watch it tonight at an Austin beer-garden event hosted by the local Dems in hopes that somehow a VP fistfight breaks out on camera. TapTheForwardAssist fucked around with this message at 22:58 on Oct 4, 2016 |
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Oct 4, 2016 22:53
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People expect Alex Jones to be perfect for some reason
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Oct 4, 2016 22:56
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Now that we're getting closer to the election, we're finally getting some polls of the important states. President - Delaware Clinton (D) 51 (+21) Trump (R) 30
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Oct 4, 2016 23:09
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Now that we're getting closer to the election, we're finally getting some polls of the important states. 
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Oct 4, 2016 23:11
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these are literally just all the files left over from the DNC Hacks leak they're trying to build a case with the sawdust they swept up lmao
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Oct 4, 2016 23:12
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/CorrectRecord/status/783416892585377792 It suddenly occurs to me that sometime in the 80s or 90s Trump almost certainly paid to watch a bum fight.
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Oct 4, 2016 23:17
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Even if this election results in the destruction of mankind I'm ok with it because it managed to make Alex Jones sing ludacris lyrics.
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Oct 4, 2016 23:18
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STAC Goat posted:It suddenly occurs to me that sometime in the 80s or 90s Trump almost certainly paid to watch a bum fight. Epic High Five posted:these are literally just all the files left over from the DNC Hacks leak The best thing is that this is probably also the very last thing Assange had on Clinton! I have a question about the general election. Are all ballots in English or are there Spanish versions? In states with a lot of Hispanic voters the availability of Spanish documents makes a huge difference on the polls. Is this also the case in the actual election?
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Oct 4, 2016 23:18
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STAC Goat posted:It suddenly occurs to me that sometime in the 80s or 90s Trump almost certainly paid to watch a bum fight. The bums paid him.
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Oct 4, 2016 23:19
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I didn't really start following the 2008 elections until after the primaries. How did the right react to Obama rising out of obscurity and defeating their nemesis Hillary? Was it similar to how a lot of us laughed as Trump took out Jeb! and the others but then quickly realized in horror that he might actually win?
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Oct 4, 2016 23:27
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iospace posted:so the Pay to Play folder was real, BUT  when they're writing my eulogy, tell them that fall of 2016 is what killed me
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Oct 4, 2016 23:41
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