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Montasque posted:Oh yeah. The map gets very unfriendly to Cruz moving forward, and Texas was a big get. Can't the GOP rally around Cruz just to force a brokered convention and then try and pick Rubio? Yes I understand that would literally destroy the party. But what if they see that as a price they're willing to pay?
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Mar 2, 2016 08:32
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So I just woke up and... am I right in saying it could have been more savage for Bernie? Doesn't look too bad, from my perspective.
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Mar 2, 2016 08:38
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i haven't been following that primary all that close, but aside from oklahoma on the plus and massachusetts on the minus side of the equation he probably did about as well as he was expected to do he sure didn't win a lot of black votes, though, so that narrative still holds. i don't think he did all that great in the heavily hispanic districts of texas, either. i'll probably look into that tomorrow, i know where the stats are on it edit: to be clear, 'as well as he was expected to do' is from the perspective where he loses the nomination by a large, non-controversial margin oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 08:49 on Mar 2, 2016 |
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Mar 2, 2016 08:43
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mike12345 posted:So I just woke up and... am I right in saying it could have been more savage for Bernie? Doesn't look too bad, from my perspective. He 100% needed to win MA. It's over, and he will not be the nominee. He can post feelgood numbers in many states in the future and may even win Kansas.
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Mar 2, 2016 08:43
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Is there much data on the Hillary/Bernie split for non-black minority votes? It seems pretty clear that Hillary's taking 65-85% of the black vote in most contests so far, but outside of arguing over the Hispanic vote in Nevada (which I think in the end showed they came out about even?) I've not seen anything concrete on how the Hispanic/Asian/Muslim/etc vote has gone or is expected to go.
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Mar 2, 2016 08:53
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Aliquid posted:He 100% needed to win MA. Why is this? Its not winner takes all, and he got 43 delegates to Hillary's 45. If positions were reversed, it wouldn't have changed much.
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Mar 2, 2016 08:56
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Apraxin posted:Is there much data on the Hillary/Bernie split for non-black minority votes? It seems pretty clear that Hillary's taking 65-85% of the black vote in most contests so far, but outside of arguing over the Hispanic vote in Nevada (which I think in the end showed they came out about even?) I've not seen anything concrete on how the Hispanic/Asian/Muslim/etc vote has gone or is expected to go. Hillary won hispanics 67-33 in TX, where they were 28% of voters. That's the only state where they were a large enough sample to have the exit poll breakdown reported. None of the other minority groups have large enough samples to have exit poll breakdowns.
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Mar 2, 2016 08:58
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Aliquid posted:He 100% needed to win MA. It's over, and he will not be the nominee. He can post feelgood numbers in many states in the future and may even win Kansas. If Bernie gets 46 delegates to Hillary's 45, is it ok if he's the nominee?
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Mar 2, 2016 09:02
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nopants posted:If Bernie gets 46 delegates to Hillary's 45, is it ok if he's the nominee? 538's target for MA was 50, so I'm guessing that no, 46 isn't enough.
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Mar 2, 2016 09:05
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Anarkii posted:Why is this? Its not winner takes all, and he got 43 delegates to Hillary's 45. If positions were reversed, it wouldn't have changed much. The big issue is that the proportional delegate system rewards large margins of victory. Hillary has way more states in which she has/will have a huge margin of victory than Bernie does. This means that Bernie can continue to get very close to Hillary or beat her in some states and still be forced to play catch-up, because Hillary is still adding enough delegates from each state to stay in the lead. For Bernie to have a viable path to the nomination he's going to have to start blowing out Hillary in more states, and I'm not sure there are many opportunities to do that anytime soon.
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Mar 2, 2016 09:08
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Pinterest Mom posted:538's target for MA was 50, so I'm guessing that no, 46 isn't enough. Fangraphs is projecting the Royals to be the worst team in the American League this season.
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Mar 2, 2016 09:11
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Anarkii posted:Why is this? Its not winner takes all, and he got 43 delegates to Hillary's 45. If positions were reversed, it wouldn't have changed much. Delegate wise it's not a huge difference, but momentum and story-wise, he needed to win every non-southern state today.
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Mar 2, 2016 09:13
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Pinterest Mom posted:538's target for MA was 50, so I'm guessing that no, 46 isn't enough. so they thought he needed to narrowly win tennessee, huh? going through the current thegreenpapers counts it looks like he slightly overperformed 538's benchmarks in colorado, oklahoma, and vermont, and underperformed them, sometimes by double digits, elsewhere. i guess that feels like the way people are reacting to it. his candidacy isn't over, but it'd be hard to find a predictive model of future results that would improve its outlook on his candidacy when fed today's data
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Mar 2, 2016 09:17
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Cruz takes Alaska, known by many as the "Crown Jewel of Caucuses."
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Mar 2, 2016 09:29
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Vox Nihili posted:Cruz takes Alaska, known by many as the "Crown Jewel of Caucuses." Hey, don't knock the Caucasus. Grozny has some very beautiful 1930's architecture that has yet to be blown u- oh, nevermind, scratch that.
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Mar 2, 2016 09:31
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Now Cruz can say, like Trump, he can win states in both the south and the north.
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Mar 2, 2016 09:33
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Trapezium Dave posted:Now Cruz can say, like Trump, he can win states in both the south and the north. He will literally say this. And it will be hilarious. (love your av btw)
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Mar 2, 2016 09:42
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Trapezium Dave posted:Now Cruz can say, like Trump, he can win states in both the south and the north. As if that not being true would have stopped Cruz from saying so in the first place. I can't stop replaying this. There is no end to my enjoyment of this six second clip. Joementum, I'm going to miss you. It's a shame that I'll have to rely on the real John Dickerson from here on out. Thank you. Fix has issued a correction as of 10:10 on Mar 2, 2016 |
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Mar 2, 2016 09:48
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Mar 2, 2016 10:14
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Truly third is the new first Somebody call O'Malley
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Mar 2, 2016 10:17
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with rubio's win he gets the same number of delegates as cruz lol
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Mar 2, 2016 10:17
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Hey Joe, thanks for your service. See you in the 'verse.
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Mar 2, 2016 10:21
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Just woke up and looked at the results. Sanders is...alive? The rear end raping didn't kill him? drat. I'm not going to lie, I was prepared for a situation where he would only win Vermont last night.
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Mar 2, 2016 11:07
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Stay alive out there Joementum, we'll see you on the other side.
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Mar 2, 2016 12:35
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Can someone let me know if I won Vermont? I'm too afraid to look.
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Mar 2, 2016 12:54
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John Kasich posted:Can someone let me know if I won Vermont? I'm too afraid to look. Is a delegate tie with Trump a win?
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Mar 2, 2016 12:55
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Constant Hamprince posted:Stay alive out there Joementum, we'll see you on the other side. I missed what happened to joe.
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Mar 2, 2016 13:32
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Have you seen my apex seals? I seem to have lost them.
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Aeka 2.0 posted:I missed what happened to joe. he's riding off into the sunset.
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Mar 2, 2016 13:37
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This got posted in the Texas thread, but everyone needs to read this article http://www.texastribune.org/2016/03/02/newly-elected-gop-chair-texas-capitol/
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Mar 2, 2016 13:37
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Shifty Pony posted:This got posted in the Texas thread, but everyone needs to read this article Robert Morrow posted:“Perry is an epic hypocrite,” he told the Tribune on Wednesday. “I think he has been a rampaging bisexual adulterer for many decades.” The whole thing is worth reading, but this bit is extra special to me.
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Mar 2, 2016 13:53
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https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/705011486930948096 yawn
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Mar 2, 2016 13:54
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WOW Cruz took Alaska overnight? How the hell do these establishment hacks keep pushing Rubio with a straight face as the "anti-Trump" They just lost ALL credibility.
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Mar 2, 2016 13:58
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I did it! I had an impact! http://www.buzzfeed.com/tariniparti/establishment-republicans-are-furious-with-john-kasich
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Mar 2, 2016 14:27
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If this stays a three horse race plus 1 they may as well just hand it to Trump
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Mar 2, 2016 14:44
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Wow, Alaska went Cruz? Neat. I had that as a chance, but not a good one. Mild postmortem: I goofed. There's a lot of argument still about who got how many delegates last night (I flat don't trust the NYTimes model) but 538 is estimating 260 Trump, 215 Cruz, 93 Rubio. My scenario C-for-Cruz had 258 Trump, 222 Cruz, 138 Rubio; (I included Wyoming, which was dumbo). Basically Cruz hit the absolute best case I could imagine for him, while Rubio catastrophically underperformed my absolute worst expectation and Trump did about as well as I expected he would if it was a good Rubio or Cruz night. Now that we have a lot more data about more states and areas, and it appears very unlikely that either Carson or Kasich will drop out, I'll be projecting through to the March 15th primaries tonight. Mukaikubo has issued a correction as of 15:05 on Mar 2, 2016 |
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Mar 2, 2016 15:00
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Ok, so Oklahoma went like 50% Bernie 40% Hillary. Who the gently caress did the other 10% vote for? Everything I see reports only Bernie and Hillary.
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Mar 2, 2016 15:05
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Bad Caller posted:If this stays a three horse race plus 1 they may as well just hand it to Trump Yes, Trump "underperformed" by winning like 8/12 states. "He should have obliterated Rubio and Cruz so completely that they'd never work in politics again!"
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Mar 2, 2016 15:12
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That narrative 
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Mar 2, 2016 15:15
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I wonder how many people who still had delusions about their right wing media being fair and balanced see this and flip out.
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Mar 2, 2016 15:17
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Totalizator posted:I wonder how many people who still had delusions about their right wing media being fair and balanced see this and flip out. the right wing media isn't fair and balanced enough!
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Mar 2, 2016 15:31
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