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SoggyBobcat posted:Yeah, letting go of Donetsk and Luhansk seems to be the best option for Ukraine now - let the rebels run the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, but don't integrate them into some re-jigged federal state where they would hold a veto. And don't recognize their legitimacy if they declare independance or join Russia. Let Russia pour in massive subsidies into what is a massive industrial museum, and concentrate instead on making the rest of Ukraine an economic and political success. And then just wait for prosperity to grow and corruption to dwindle, as it probably will when Ukraine drifts closer to the E.U. Elotana fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Sep 5, 2014 |
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Sep 5, 2014 18:35
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Elotana posted:Winter is coming and Russia has their hand on the gas tap. Prosperity won't be growing anywhere in Ukraine and Putin will not wait that long. Look for continued "unrest" in Kharkiv and Odessa and another slice off the Ukranian salami within the year. I doubt Putin wants to commit the resources necessary for that. I think he's happy enough to just have a permanent crisis there.
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Sep 5, 2014 18:38
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Warcabbit posted:Hey. Russians are great people. Big hearts, black moods, great people. It's just the government that deserves to be stuffed into a meat grinder feetfirst. They actually believe that Ukraine is run by a homonazi junta. Polls state that more than 80% of russians are behind their glorious leader, while the remaining 10% composed of intelligentsia, shake their head in astonishment and prepare to leave the country. Furthermore, despite the fact that Gulag Archipelago is a school lecture, Stalin is still a national hero. Yup. Great, smart lovable people. Pizzagate Pedophile fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Sep 5, 2014 |
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Sep 5, 2014 18:40
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TeodorMorozov posted:No one likes us, we don't care
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Sep 5, 2014 18:40
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I wonder how much money Russia is saving from breaking the Kharkiv pact versus how much was spent on the whole conflict up to the annexation of Crimea... and since then too, I suppose.Livers posted:They actually believe that Ukraine is run by a homonazi junta. Polls state that more than 80% of russians are behind their glorious leader, while the remaining 10% composed of intelligentsia, shake their head in astonishment and prepare to leave the country. Yup. Great, smart lovable people. This is like, totally a uniquely Russian phenomenon.
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Sep 5, 2014 18:41
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Livers posted:They actually believe that Ukraine is run by a homonazi junta. Polls state that more than 80% of russians are behind their glorious leader, while the remaining 10% composed of intelligentsia, shake their head in astonishment and prepare to leave the country. Yup. Great, smart lovable people. This is a helpful and constructive post.
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Sep 5, 2014 18:42
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Majorian posted:This is a helpful and constructive post. I respond to bullshit when I see it.
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Sep 5, 2014 18:43
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eXXon posted:I wonder how much money Russia is saving from breaking the Kharkiv pact versus how much was spent on the whole conflict up to the annexation of Crimea... and since then too, I suppose. Livers posted:I respond to bullshit when I see it.
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Sep 5, 2014 18:47
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orcane posted:
If you have a point to make about my argument, make it. Don't be a whiny babby.
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Sep 5, 2014 18:53
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orcane posted:It would really surprise me if that adventure saved them any money at all. Putin's singlehandedly tanking his economy, that can't end well. Oh I'm sure the sanctions alone dwarf the financial impact of anything else, but I don't think it's implausible that Putin calculated he would be saving money by seizing Sevastopol and jacking up gas prices.
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Sep 5, 2014 18:54
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Livers posted:They actually believe that Ukraine is run by a homonazi junta. Polls state that more than 80% of russians are behind their glorious leader, while the remaining 10% composed of intelligentsia, shake their head in astonishment and prepare to leave the country. Furthermore, despite the fact that Gulag Archipelago is a school lecture, Stalin is still a national hero. Yup. Great, smart lovable people. A truly safe Europe can be built only on the ruin of Russia and the rotting corpses of her children!!!!
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Sep 5, 2014 19:00
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Regarding the kidnapping of the Estonian counter-intelligence officer. The Estonian border guard visited the scene with their Russian counterparts and found signs of struggle and the crime scene is definitely located WITHIN Estonian territory. This fact was determined by both parties.
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Sep 5, 2014 19:00
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eXXon posted:Oh I'm sure the sanctions alone dwarf the financial impact of anything else, but I don't think it's implausible that Putin calculated he would be saving money by seizing Sevastopol and jacking up gas prices. I don't know, he doesn't strike me as dumb enough to do that. Then again he's the type who might think his plans are so smart nobody will retaliate and business confidence will remain unharmed so maybe you're right. I mean, at this point I'm not sure anymore that he only plays the "it's not Russians, honest" game for the audience at home or if he really thinks anyone believes the cute stories about honest Eastern Ukrainians finding Buk launchers and heavy weapons in their gardens to defend against the invading Nazis.
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Sep 5, 2014 19:04
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Forums Terrorist posted:A truly safe Europe can be built only on the ruin of Russia and the rotting corpses of her children!!!! Mistook this for a Lucy Heartfilia post for a second.
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Sep 5, 2014 19:10
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OhYeah posted:Regarding the kidnapping of the Estonian counter-intelligence officer. The FSB were just on holiday in the area and decided to help out the Estonian Government by apprehending this vagabond!
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Sep 5, 2014 19:12
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Sweden has long prized Novgorod.
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Sep 5, 2014 19:20
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Forums Terrorist posted:A truly safe Europe can be built only on the ruin of Russia and the rotting corpses of her children!!!!  big enough for this post, if you think for a second.
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Sep 5, 2014 19:31
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Berke Negri posted:Mistook this for a Lucy Heartfilia post for a second. lovely tuna snatch posted:No At least Berke Negri got the joke. 
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Sep 5, 2014 19:39
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Nah, I just want Putin and his murderers in Ukraine dead. But since this is not likely to happen, full economic warfare against Russia is fine, too.
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Sep 5, 2014 19:42
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OhYeah posted:Regarding the kidnapping of the Estonian counter-intelligence officer. Not exactly doubting you but considering the FSB already confessed of having detained the guy, would you have a source for this, please?
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Sep 5, 2014 19:50
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orcane posted:I don't know, he doesn't strike me as dumb enough to do that. I doubt Putin sat with his a calculator to determine the short term profit/loss to Russia's economy on the annexation of Crimea. Its much more likely he sees perpetual access to the black see as infinitely more valuable to Russia than short term economic losses (and he is not wrong in this). I wouldn't be surprised if the whole push in to eastern Ukraine is about getting eventual international recognition of the annexation in exchange for peace; a way of creating additional bargaining chips. The comical propaganda is intended for both a domestic audience (where is hugely effective) and an international one. Putin calculates that people will accept an obvious lie in order to remain comfortable no matter how silly that lie may appear. So long as Russia continues to deny western powers have the option to ignore reality (weather they follow that option is another question).
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Sep 5, 2014 20:05
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Valiantman posted:Not exactly doubting you but considering the FSB already confessed of having detained the guy, would you have a source for this, please? Just Estonian sources at the moment. This is a really weird situation, I don't know what to make of it. If it is a provocation by the Russians... well, in that case they really don't care anymore.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:18
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eXXon posted:I wonder how much money Russia is saving from breaking the Kharkiv pact versus how much was spent on the whole conflict up to the annexation of Crimea... and since then too, I suppose. It isn't uniquely Russian, but Russia is pretty fantastic at controlling propaganda and the details of the post-soviet rehabilitation of the Russian image are pretty great, as told through textbook analysis. After soviet collapse there was a teeny stumble in narrative then straight back into Glorious Mother Russia, gently caress Y'all In Eastern Europe. It took them like a year or two to recover from what I remember. Other countries wish they were as good as Russia at historical propaganda.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:31
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OhYeah posted:Just Estonian sources at the moment. This is a really weird situation, I don't know what to make of it. If it is a provocation by the Russians... well, in that case they really don't care anymore. If the Russians actually did kidnap the guy within Estonian borders, I'd imagine it would have to be due to an intelligence blunder on the ground level, ie: something that wasn't ordered from above. It's such an obviously foolish move, with no clear benefit for the Russians.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:32
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The whole Ukraine conflict has been created against Russian long term interests though.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:36
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:The whole Ukraine conflict has been created against Russian long term interests though. I'm not so sure of that. Russia is definitely taking an economic hit from it right now, but the fact that neither Ukraine nor Georgia are likely to join NATO after this, and Ukraine is probably going to be hobbled by this crisis for a long time, are definitely in Russia's long-term interests. They may be perceived as a pariah right now, but relations with the rest of the world normalized pretty quickly after the war with Georgia. I don't think it will take long for the same thing to happen here. Largely because powerful states like the US need Russia's cooperation to pursue their own interests.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:39
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:The whole Ukraine conflict has been created against Russian long term interests though. Can you tell us what you think Russia's long-term interests are?
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Sep 5, 2014 20:39
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Gaj posted:In my Ukrainian circles its part of an old Czarist-House of Gotha alliance. We Russians will refer to conquered peoples in X manner, just like the British speak about their conquered peoples. like "the Welsh". The paranoia is centered around the belief that "The" Ukraine reduces the nation state to that of a territory, or smaller geographical area within a larger one. Think of how Americans call it "the South" and not "the former lands of the Confederacy and Cree peoples". My understanding was that "Ukraine" translates to something like "borderlands" or "frontier." So by calling it the Ukraine you are implying that it's the borderlands (of Russia), as if it doesn't really have an identity except in reference to Russia. I get what you're saying but I don't think a comparison to the American South is really appropriate, "the South" is a label that many Southerners will claim with pride. A better analogy might be Texas where there are a fair few idiots who at least like to talk about secession and there's a lot of state pride and mythology wrapped up in the history of the independent Republic of Texas. This would be more like if Texas was independent and some people started calling it by some spin on one of the old Spanish names like "Province of the Texas."
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Sep 5, 2014 20:41
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1) Already money is pulled out of Russia. Businesses pull out of Russia. Investments are delayed or cancelled. Sanctions are also doing their part. 2) Relations to other countries are harmed massively. Anyone who can will want nothing to do with Russia or will try to have closer ties with EU et al. 3) NATO is strenghtened. Everyone sees how important this alliance still is. 4) Russian minorities in other countries will be viewed with higher suspicion and might have to suffer from increased discrimination. And that for Crimea and Donbass. Those will also be a large economic burden and it is far from certain that Russias access to what makes those strategically important would have been cut off anyways.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:49
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Forgall posted:Are people here seriously arguing Russia didn't get hosed by the West in the 90s? We trusted your advisors after our whole world shattered, because it seemed like you have figured that capitalism thing out. I certainly remember feeling that way back then and looking up to the West, thinking that those painful reforms were necessary. And all that did was turn Russia into neoliberal shithole. If it makes you feel better it's only because russia is the 'bad guy' right now- if it was the other way around these same posters would be chomping at the bit to blame the IMF. orcane posted:Makes sense to respond to Majorian then. Actually Majorian is a good example of how it is possible to blame Russia without being a bloodthirsty frothing at the mouth retard about it. What exactly have they said that was so objectionable? Livers posted:They actually believe that Ukraine is run by a homonazi junta. Polls state that more than 80% of russians are behind their glorious leader, while the remaining 10% composed of intelligentsia, shake their head in astonishment and prepare to leave the country. Furthermore, despite the fact that Gulag Archipelago is a school lecture, Stalin is still a national hero. Yup. Great, smart lovable people. A similar percentage of americans initially supported the Iraq war, which led to millions of casualties, and they did so while having access to far more information than the average Russian has. Andrew Jackson is on the 20 dollar bill. But besides this, the rightwing elements have been heavily downplayed in these threads, despite objective sources like Frontline showing that it is certainly something to be concerned about. Cat Mattress posted:It works that way in some languages. But not in English. Actually 'the Ukraine' was used in almost all news sources and was the standard until Ukraine asked nicely for it to be changed in the 90's. So it has nothing to do with english conventions or anything like that. I'd guess the vast majority of people who add the article do so because they like the sound, are a fan of Seinfeld, or are older versus doing so because they hate the country or something stupid like that.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:51
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:1) Already money is pulled out of Russia. Businesses pull out of Russia. Investments are delayed or cancelled. Sanctions are also doing their part. I think you will be in for a big surprise when nobody even remembers this event in like 5 years. People have short memories and the investment money will be back as soon as things cool down. Can't imagine the sanctions lasting very long either.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:55
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tsa posted:I think you will be in for a big surprise when nobody even remembers this event in like 5 years. People have short memories and the investment money will be back as soon as things cool down. Can't imagine the sanctions lasting very long either. I would share that same perspective, if Putin had stopped with Crimea.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:57
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tsa posted:I think you will be in for a big surprise when nobody even remembers this event in like 5 years. People have short memories and the investment money will be back as soon as things cool down. Can't imagine the sanctions lasting very long either.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:57
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tsa posted:I think you will be in for a big surprise when nobody even remembers this event in like 5 years. People have short memories and the investment money will be back as soon as things cool down. Can't imagine the sanctions lasting very long either.
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Sep 5, 2014 20:58
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A Buttery Pastry posted:You're assuming Putin won't be doing anything to remind people why Russia can't be trusted in the mean time. During the annexation of Crimea I still thought that he is ruthless but also coldly calculating. Now I think he is dangerous.
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Sep 5, 2014 21:00
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Majorian posted:I'm not so sure of that. Russia is definitely taking an economic hit from it right now, but the fact that neither Ukraine nor Georgia are likely to join NATO after this, and Ukraine is probably going to be hobbled by this crisis for a long time, are definitely in Russia's long-term interests. They may be perceived as a pariah right now, but relations with the rest of the world normalized pretty quickly after the war with Georgia. I don't think it will take long for the same thing to happen here. Largely because powerful states like the US need Russia's cooperation to pursue their own interests. Georgia was a really different situation, though - Russia had a very solid cause for war and were arguably in their full rights to do what they did in the situation, and didn't just outright seize land. Both of those are fairly important, I feel.
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Sep 5, 2014 21:02
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:1) Already money is pulled out of Russia. Businesses pull out of Russia. Investments are delayed or cancelled. Sanctions are also doing their part. These are all valid points, but I think it remains to be seen how long any of these negative effects will last. To whit: 1 - Russia has definitely taken a hit on the economic front, but investors will almost certainly return, and sanctions will end before long. Why? Because it's absolutely in the West's economic interests for these things to happen. 2 - The US and its NATO allies still need Russia's acquiescence on a lot of foreign policy fronts, including dealing with ISIS, normalizing relations with Iran, putting the screws to North Korea, fighting WMD proliferation, extracting troops from Afghanistan, etc. Russia's relations with these countries may suffer in the short-term, but let's keep in mind, the US and NATO have bigger fish to fry. They need relations with Russia to be at least cooperative. 3 - NATO may have a renewed sense of purpose, but this crisis has highlighted an equally troubling problem in the alliance: how far are its more powerful member-states willing to go to defend its less-powerful ones? At what point will France, Germany, and even the US consider a situation severe enough to warrant invoking Article 5? 4 - This is probably true, but I doubt Putin is losing any sleep over it. That could easily serve as a political chip in his pile, really: "Hey, look at what NATO member-state Estonia is doing to our fellow Russians! Who's the real aggressor NOW?!"  V. Illych L. posted:Georgia was a really different situation, though - Russia had a very solid cause for war and were arguably in their full rights to do what they did in the situation, and didn't just outright seize land. Both of those are fairly important, I feel. No, you're right, but still - for a lot of the international community, it's in the same ballpark, just a difference of scope. Those perceptions may change if Putin tries to keep more of Ukraine than just Crimea, but right now I'm of the belief that he won't. Majorian fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Sep 5, 2014 |
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Sep 5, 2014 21:05
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That's another thing. European countries will strive to become more energy dependent. DESERTEC for example is practically possible and could supply the whole of Europe with plenty of energy. The political will is lacking and russian energy is cheap. For now. Also if fusion energy stays on track as planned Russia has about four decades left until they are hosed. Majorian posted:These are all valid points, but I think it remains to be seen how long any of these negative effects will last. To whit: Well, those are good points. Much depends on how Russia acts in the future. And in my opinion a leader like Putin makes that increasingly unlikely. He is longer in power than he is supposed to be. Don't forget that. That's not a good sign. Lucy Heartfilia fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Sep 5, 2014 |
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Sep 5, 2014 21:05
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V. Illych L. posted:Georgia was a really different situation, though - Russia had a very solid cause for war and were arguably in their full rights to do what they did in the situation, and didn't just outright seize land. Both of those are fairly important, I feel. Note that Georgia was based on an earlier setup that wasn't too diffent from the events in Donbass, complete with Russian encouragement, funding, leading and arming of separatists. The most recent war there was actually part 2 following the unfreezing of the conflict.
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Sep 5, 2014 21:06
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V. Illych L. posted:Georgia was a really different situation, though - Russia had a very solid cause for war and were arguably in their full rights to do what they did in the situation, and didn't just outright seize land. Both of those are fairly important, I feel.
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Sep 5, 2014 21:06
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