|
lozzle posted:So are hurricanes in election years the result of some kind of curse or what? In retrospect, probably shouldn't have built the country on all those sacred Indian burial grounds.
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 13, 2024 05:55 |
|
|
Do Libertarian or Green Party politicians occupy any Mayor or Congressional seats in the U.S.? Do they even occupy any State Legislature seats?
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:51
|
|
|
Radish posted:Yeah if this is some larger strategy to flub a debate that doesn't really matter in order to create a larger narrative around the Hillary campaign at large that's really cool but I think it's more likely not the case. I guess we'll see what happens but I think debate two is what everyone is already getting excited for. In a normal election Pence doing unexpectedly well would probably be really great but when Trump is around he really steals the spotlight no matter what is going on. Also that's real dumb for 2020/2024/2028. Pence wants his career to keep going, and has the skill to match those ambitions, unlike other Republicans. Giving him a huge boost of credibility is not something the Democrats should be doing, especially for a few more sucker punches on Trump, who lost a long time ago. If he can unite the Republican old guard and the Trumpsters in 2020 or 2024, that could be a real problem.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:52
|
|
|
edrith posted:6th 7th 8th, whatever, just a really big storm hitting hard within 72 hours of the polls closing Either way it would be a really convenient excuse for some more missing ballots.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:53
|
|
|
So, twitter trends this morning. "New Doubts About Hillary" is trending, mostly attacks on her choice of Kaine. Seems to be bouncing around the echo chambers of the right. "#ThatMexicanThing" is as well, and trending stronger (47.6k vs 9.7k).
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:53
|
|
|
It's weird to use "Al Gore" and "appeal" in the same sentence.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:53
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/783645247247114240 Well that was swift.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:53
|
|
|
Rookersh posted:Also that's real dumb for 2020/2024/2028. Hmm, yes. Losing VP candidates are generally a grave threat in the future. President Ryan is a real contender.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:53
|
|
|
Pence is a poor man's Cruz and will get eaten alive by him
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:54
|
|
|
canepazzo posted:Yougov polls are out: Almost all of them. There are way too many permutations to present well but if we assume Michigan and Wisconsin go blue and Georgia, Iowa and Ohio all go red you're looking at Clinton 256 EV vs. Trump 210. Clinton then only needs to win Florida OR Colorado & Virginia OR Nevada & North Carolina. The reason I'm splitting them like that is that if Clinton's educated white advantage disappears CO and VA might go but NV, NC and FL are less likely to go. Trump needs the white vote to collapse to have a shot but it only takes him so far in the electoral college. This is why the Clinton campaign is not betting the house on Ohio. They're diversifying their investments.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:54
|
|
|
canepazzo posted:Yougov polls are out: Basically all of them. He can take the five largest of those states and still lose.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:55
|
|
|
Pence is still a joke and one debate isn't going to change that. He's pretty toxic and his state hates him. All of his more loathsome qualities have been ignored because Trump is 99.999% of that ticket and he is an afterthought at best. I'm really not worried about him in the future although I admit Kaine isn't really an amazing VP pick either.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:56
|
|
|
To further drive the point on demographics, you can game out scenarios where the white uneducated voters turn out at record levels but minority votes still take Clinton over the finishing line, e.g.: http://www.270towin.com/maps/kvGZG (educated bail on Clinton and uneducated whites have boosted turnout) http://www.270towin.com/maps/NpRop (PA is lost but educated whites stick to Clinton in CO and VA) You can swap in GA for AZ in these maps, if you like. It's important to make maps that have some sense to them. States like Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan are going to herd with each other because they are similar in demographic makeup. This is why Ohio slipping away is not the end of the world. But in a world where Michigan goes red, Wisconsin and Ohio are also going red, but Florida or NC actually might not.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:59
|
|
|
I love that Georgia TIE counts as a Trump loss
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 13:59
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/NoahCRothman/status/783648091111129088
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:00
|
|
|
FAUXTON posted:https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/783645247247114240 This is an amazing ad. Clinton's ad team is on point this campaign.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:01
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/783648595249627136 https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/783648710488100864
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:04
|
|
|
Radish posted:Pence is still a joke and one debate isn't going to change that. He's pretty toxic and his state hates him. All of his more loathsome qualities have been ignored because Trump is 99.999% of that ticket and he is an afterthought at best. I'm really not worried about him in the future although I admit Kaine isn't really an amazing VP pick either. Kaine locked down Virginia but it turns out that that was probably overkill. Oh well.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:05
|
|
|
vyelkin posted:This is an amazing ad. Clinton's ad team is on point this campaign.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:05
|
|
|
That's also more or less baiting Trump.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:06
|
|
|
Could this guy be more pedantic with the $900 million != $1 billion thing?
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:07
|
|
|
lozzle posted:Kaine locked down Virginia but it turns out that that was probably overkill. Oh well. To be fair to team Hillary I'm not really sure who else you would get for VP. Like he's OKkkk but not someone I'm excited about and I'm a Virginian. I'm sure he's there to help with the white guy vote but honestly this election is way past identity politics like that when white people are either voting for the idiot white supremacist or they aren't. Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 14:12 on Oct 5, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:10
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/CHueyBurnsRCP/status/783655043908206592 Perfect.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:11
|
|
|
This is a really good example of the problem we have right now. When you put 17 and 11 statements side by side like that, it's like, "well both lied a lot." But when you actually pick apart the lies and how serious they are, most Pence statements should be in a 24 pt font and in bright red, while several Kaine statements should be in 6 pt font and maybe a touch of light grey. Saying "he lost a billion a year" when he lost 900m in one year is a flub or an exaggeration, "Donald Trump never said that" times seven is a pre-meditated attempt to mislead.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:12
|
|
|
Donnyboy is mad.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:12
|
|
|
lozzle posted:Could this guy be more pedantic with the $900 million != $1 billion thing? Pence lied about basically everything that came out of his mouth. But Kaine wasn't accurate to 6 significant figures out of a 10-digit number. Both sides lie and are bad! vOv
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:12
|
|
|
Radish posted:To be fair to team Hillary I'm not really sure who else you would get for VP. I seem to recall Sherrod Brown's name getting thrown around.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:13
|
|
|
i think they went with tim kaine because he'd help in virginia and he's an old white guy
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:14
|
|
|
Radish posted:To be fair to team Hillary I'm not really sure who else you would get for VP. Like he's OKkkk but not someone I'm excited about and I'm a Virginian. I'm sure he's there to help with the white guy vote but honestly this election is way past identity politics like that when white people are either voting for the idiot white supremacist or they aren't. Kaine has a couple other advantages. 1. He can appeal directly to Hispanics. A significant amount of them are Catholic, he did missionary work because of his faith (in a Latin American country no less), and he speaks Spanish fluently. 2. He's from a state with a Democrat governor. Brown, Booker, and Warren all are in states with Republican governors. Guess who picks the replacement. iospace fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Oct 5, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:16
|
|
|
lozzle posted:I seem to recall Sherrod Brown's name getting thrown around. Kasich would appoint his replacement to serve out the rest of his term. Kaine was probably the best pick in terms of padding out the ticket, helping in VA and also helping in taking the Senate back. E:fb.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:16
|
|
|
Endorph posted:i think they went with tim kaine because he'd help in virginia and he's an old white guy They went with Kaine because Hillary felt comfortable with him, because he's a policy wonk, because he's loyal. Obama almost picked Kaine instead of Biden.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:19
|
|
|
It really is infuriating that we are spending more time in these debates talking about Russia/Syria and the moronic idea that North Korea is going to nuke us than about Climate Change, Gay rights, taxes, education and campaign finance (just to name a few) combined. She COULDN'T WAIT to start asking questions about completely irrelevant poo poo last night.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:20
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:It really is infuriating that we are spending more time in these debates talking about Russia/Syria and the moronic idea that North Korea is going to nuke us than about Climate Change, Gay rights, taxes, education and campaign finance (just to name a few) combined. I agree, but that's just because I have basically no interest in foreign policy. I've come to a point in my life where I just accept that it will be a constant shitshow. What are we gonna do about poo poo in America? That's what I want to know.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:21
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:They went with Kaine because Hillary felt comfortable with him, because he's a policy wonk, because he's loyal. He's also completely scandal free. If you believe the VP pick can mostly only hurt, maybe help a little in a swing state they're popular in, Kaine is a good pick. That he also has a record of being a genuinely good official who's gotten a lot of solid but lower profile work done is a plus.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:22
|
|
|
nachos posted:LATimes is T+4 again. That thing has not moved from Trump +4-5 in 10 days. This poll, like many lovely polls, will move towards Hillary in November, barring any sort of catastrophic event for her campaign That always seems to be the case with outlier polls. Well except Rasmussen in 2012, they dropped the ball on that one (I believe they had Romney +2 the night before the election).
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:22
|
|
|
TheGreatGnocchi posted:This poll, like many lovely polls, will move towards Hillary in November, barring any sort of catastrophic event for her campaign That always seems to be the case with outlier polls. Well except Rasmussen in 2012, they dropped the ball on that one (I believe they had Romney +2 the night before the election). Romney+2 *and* writing editorials about how he was poised to win handily. On November 5th.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:23
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:It really is infuriating that we are spending more time in these debates talking about Russia/Syria and the moronic idea that North Korea is going to nuke us than about Climate Change, Gay rights, taxes, education and campaign finance (just to name a few) combined. She COULDN'T WAIT to start asking questions about completely irrelevant poo poo last night. If that's the case no wonder Pence didn't get stomped. His domestic policies are really obvious terrible and any light on those makes him look like a monster and/or an idiot.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:23
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:It really is infuriating that we are spending more time in these debates talking about Russia/Syria and the moronic idea that North Korea is going to nuke us than about Climate Change, Gay rights, taxes, education and campaign finance (just to name a few) combined. She COULDN'T WAIT to start asking questions about completely irrelevant poo poo last night. Isn't usually the VP's job (outside of being the President of the Senate, which is normally a formality) is to be a diplomat? It would make sense from that angle to see if they know FP.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:23
|
|
|
Grouchio posted:
Is that Europe?
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:24
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 13, 2024 05:55 |
|
|
mcmagic posted:It really is infuriating that we are spending more time in these debates talking about Russia/Syria and the moronic idea that North Korea is going to nuke us than about Climate Change, Gay rights, taxes, education and campaign finance (just to name a few) combined. She COULDN'T WAIT to start asking questions about completely irrelevant poo poo last night. I agree, and I complained about this earlier. For all the people mention that the vice President is essentially a diplomat, I actually think that one of the most important actual services of the vice President is simply to be a bellwether for contemporary feeling. And that will mostly be domestic issues, because let's face it, most people care more about domestic issues than they care about foreign-policy. A lot of people don't even know where these countries are, they don't really care About the people there. It is ridiculous that they didn't talk about education, or gay rights, a climate change. Who loving cares about North Korea, the vice president is not gonna have any affect on that whatsoever
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:24
|
|