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I have a simple modest proposal. Give the Kurds 100 billion dollars of modern weaponry and let them bring peace to the region like they did under Saladin.
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Jun 28, 2014 11:55
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DrProsek posted:If the thread will indulge a little more crystal ball gazing, any predictions on what the Assyrians, Yazidis, and Turkmens will do should Kurdistan officially declare independence? My prediction: Assyrians and Yazidis, as they are ethno-religious minorities, support becoming part of Kurdistan as the best of the three new nations in terms of stability, and being the least likely to attempt to genocide them. The majority of Turkmen meanwhile stay a part of Iraq and do not join ISIStopia. This prediction is based on
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Jun 28, 2014 12:31
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Rosscifer posted:I have a simple modest proposal. Give the Kurds 100 billion dollars of modern weaponry and let them bring peace to the region like they did under Saladin. Saladin founded his dynasty (which stated falling apart as soon as Jerusalem was conquered basically) on the broken kingdoms of his many Muslim neighbors, aside from making temporary peace with Richard he wasn't exactly a peacenik.
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Jun 28, 2014 13:13
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If the boundaries in the region are drawn more according to ethnic/religious compositions, what will be the next step? Local cold war? I suppose what I'm asking is - war is a horrible means of population control. In a cold war, one can also expect people to try to 'breed out' their enemies. What is the solution for the region that will essentially make people try to want to live for themselves, reduce the population/stress on the environment, etc.?
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Jun 28, 2014 13:51
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meristem posted:If the boundaries in the region are drawn more according to ethnic/religious compositions, what will be the next step? Local cold war? Starvation of the Sunni population because it's all on lovely land.
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Jun 28, 2014 14:11
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Svartvit posted:The Yazidi are Kurds. A good chunk of Yazidis consider themselves a distinct ethnic group and refuse to identify as Kurdish. There are a couple of other ethno religious groups like the Shabak and Zaza who are also resistant to being included under a single Kurdish umbrella.
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Jun 28, 2014 14:28
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computer parts posted:Starvation of the Sunni population because it's all on lovely land. They're not starving now, and last I checked it wasn't because Malaki was shipping them free food.
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Jun 28, 2014 15:17
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Count Roland posted:They're not starving now, and last I checked it wasn't because Malaki was shipping them free food. Intra-state trade is much different from interstate trade, especially if you've explicitly redrawn these borders so you don't have to deal with those other guys. Most of the oil is not in the Sunni region either:  
computer parts fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Jun 28, 2014 |
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Jun 28, 2014 15:23
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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/iraq-army-launches-offensive-retake-tikrit-201462872244724634.html The Iraqi Army, supported by heavy armored divisions and Shiite militias, has launched a massive offensive to retake Tikrit and have gained some ground inside the city. Reports are saying that some neutral Sunni tribes have switched allegiance to the government and are supplying intel to Iraqi forces due to looting and executions by ISIS and their pals.
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Jun 28, 2014 23:19
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The latest report is that the Iraqi Army has stopped because the city is encircled with mines.
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Jun 28, 2014 23:22
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suboptimal posted:The latest report is that the Iraqi Army has stopped because the city is encircled with mines. I wonder if they mean those enormous, city block-sized mines we have seen.
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Jun 28, 2014 23:29
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Martin Random posted:Turkey is starting to make noises that it is willing to accept the existence of an independent Kurdish state on its borders. This is pretty big and promising news for the Kurds. Not so promising for the continued existence of the nation of Iraq. The language of inevitability is starting to snowball with regards to eventual partitioning. I Guess Turkey suddenly realizes that a buffer-state comes in handy now that ISIS is expanding.
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Jun 28, 2014 23:58
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Sergg posted:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/iraq-army-launches-offensive-retake-tikrit-201462872244724634.html http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28077425 Iraq crisis: Tikrit rebels 'push back Iraq army' Iraqi government forces trying to retake the city of Tikrit from Sunni insurgents have pulled back to a nearby town amid fierce clashes, reports say. Government troops launched an assault on the city on Saturday with tanks, armoured vehicles and air support. Eyewitnesses say both sides suffered heavy losses and that the army had to pull back to Dijla, 25km to the south lol so what happens when ISIS takes Baghdad?
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Jun 29, 2014 11:39
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I think Iran should take over parts of Iraq and Syira. They are the most stable country in the middle east. In which I mean their government and institutions are the strongest.
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Jun 29, 2014 12:37
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There's an obvious reason for Turkey to support an independent Kurdistan within Iraqi territory. Let's call it the 'Israeli-transfer ideal'. You have a state already, outside of Turkish borders. Go there if you want a state. Will be easier to shut down Turkish Kurd independence if all Turkish Kurds have the right to become nationals of another state.
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Jun 29, 2014 13:32
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The PKK-Turkey conflict is also a different beast compared to a few decades ago. Besides, Realpolitik sometimes makes you choose between two unappealing options, tolerating a Kurdish buffer state may be preferable for Turkey in this situation.
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Jun 29, 2014 13:41
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28077425 BBC is late to the party, that's yesterdays news, apparently the Iraqi military went back in today and have been doing better. https://translate.google.se/transla...%2Far&sandbox=1
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Jun 29, 2014 14:05
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The latest video from ISIS - The End of Skyes-Picot, in English! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyM0_sv5h88
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Jun 29, 2014 14:16
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Xoidanor posted:BBC is late to the party, that's yesterdays news, apparently the Iraqi military went back in today and have been doing better. Wouldn't trust anything the government is saying, TBH. WaPo and wire services have said in last couple hours that the army has retreated. That link does appear to be correct in observing that they're still holding the university grounds, though. Also, chances are increasing that ISIS will formally proclaim a caliphate soon.
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Jun 29, 2014 14:26
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So apparently Iraq received a party of 5 Su-25 for CAS from Russia, in addition to some number of Su-27 fighters. Among all the ISIS hullabaloo, Russia is establishing a neat coalition of client states in Iraq-Iran-Syria. Obama needs to hurry up and go bombin', or Maliki might manage to hold out with all the foreign support coming from not-America.
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Jun 29, 2014 14:49
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Pycckuu posted:So apparently Iraq received a party of 5 Su-25 for CAS from Russia, in addition to some number of Su-27 fighters. Among all the ISIS hullabaloo, Russia is establishing a neat coalition of client states in Iraq-Iran-Syria. Obama needs to hurry up and go bombin', or Maliki might manage to hold out with all the foreign support coming from not-America. Thought they got Su-24 Fencers, according to a RT article (and I don't see why they'd lie), or did they get those *as well* as a bunch of Frogfoots and Flankers? I know they already are rocking Mi-35 and Mi-28 (which are probably a whole lot more useful than Flankers for this fight).
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Jun 29, 2014 16:08
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Pycckuu posted:So apparently Iraq received a party of 5 Su-25 for CAS from Russia, in addition to some number of Su-27 fighters. Among all the ISIS hullabaloo, Russia is establishing a neat coalition of client states in Iraq-Iran-Syria. Obama needs to hurry up and go bombin', or Maliki might manage to hold out with all the foreign support coming from not-America. Who's training them? It's not like ISIS aren't used to combatting a professional airforce...
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Jun 29, 2014 16:08
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Russia definitely appears to be angling for influence across the whole of the Shi'a Crescent. Should things shake out well for Syria, Iraq and Iran with Russian backing, what might be NATO's take on Russian backed states all along Turkey's border?
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Jun 29, 2014 16:10
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Brown Moses posted:The latest video from ISIS - The End of Skyes-Picot, in English! This is surreal to watch.
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Jun 29, 2014 16:15
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Annnnnd they've done it. Baghdadi's caliphate is officially declared, per Adnani. Will leave this to better analysts to sort out. Two things that appear certain 1. It's now just the Islamic State, not ISIS and 2. This claim in theory trumps all other claims to jihad, meaning Zawhiri and all branches of AQ owe allegiance now to Baghdadi (according to the Islamic State, that is).
MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Jun 29, 2014 |
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Jun 29, 2014 16:28
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Pimpmust posted:Thought they got Su-24 Fencers, according to a RT article (and I don't see why they'd lie), or did they get those *as well* as a bunch of Frogfoots and Flankers? There is a video of a Su-25 being unloaded that a guy posted in the Eastern Europe thread. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zr3fnVXC4U Media reported earlier that they bought some Su-27s from Belarus, but Belarus is denying it. CNN reports that there is a "contract" for 25 warplanes for example. Also, unless the flankers are one of the "modern" modifications, they will not be able to engage ground targets with guided weapons. It would make more sense for Iraq to purchase ground attackers/bombers anyway since ISIS doesn't have any air assets. Also, Iraq reportedly already lost at least 2 Mi-35s. Hong XiuQuan posted:Who's training them? It's not like ISIS aren't used to combatting a professional airforce...
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Jun 29, 2014 16:34
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MothraAttack posted:Annnnnd they've done it. Baghdadi's caliphate is officially declared, per Adnani. Will leave this to better analysts to sort out. ISIS will now be known as "The Islamic State" according to their announcement. Also, all Jihadist organisations are now demolished, and their former members must pledge allegiance to the Islamic State (or else, I assume).
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Jun 29, 2014 16:35
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Brown Moses posted:ISIS will now be known as "The Islamic State" according to their announcement. Also, all Jihadist organisations are now demolished, and their former members must pledge allegiance to the Islamic State (or else, I assume). Ramadan Kareem, y'all!
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Jun 29, 2014 16:59
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Hong XiuQuan posted:There's an obvious reason for Turkey to support an independent Kurdistan within Iraqi territory. Let's call it the 'Israeli-transfer ideal'. You have a state already, outside of Turkish borders. Go there if you want a state. Will be easier to shut down Turkish Kurd independence if all Turkish Kurds have the right to become nationals of another state. There's also the option they have to permanently cede some small amount of Turkish land to the Kurds in exchange for getting the rest of them to move in there.
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Jun 29, 2014 17:00
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Pycckuu posted:There is a video of a Su-25 being unloaded that a guy posted in the Eastern Europe thread. Mercenary/"Advisor" pilots are a thing, so I guess there's always that route to take while they train up some pilots.
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Jun 29, 2014 17:10
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Brown Moses posted:ISIS will now be known as "The Islamic State" according to their announcement. Also, all Jihadist organisations are now demolished, and their former members must pledge allegiance to the Islamic State (or else, I assume). An odd question but what are they likely to be called by the wider world? Calling them The Islamic State is likely to be offensive and detrimental to the vast majority of far more decent Muslims out there but at the same time that is what they're calling themselves.
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Jun 29, 2014 17:20
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Here's the relevant part of the Islamic State's English press release:quote:Therefore, the shūrā (consultation) council of the Islamic State studied this matter after the Islamic State For the TLDR crowd: 1. ISIS' shura council believes that the legal conditions regarding the establishment of a Caliphate have been met. 2. "Ibrāhīm Ibn ‘Awwād Ibn Ibrāhīm Ibn ‘Alī Ibn Muhammad al-Badrī al-Hāshimī al-Husaynī al-Qurashī" is the name of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, who is now the leader of the Ummah (global community of Muslims, particularly the Sunnis.) 3. All Muslims are required to pledge bay'ah (allegiance) to him. 4. ISIS has dropped the last "IS" from its name- it's now just the Islamic State. This is Serious Business, and it's really going to be interesting to see how all of the other jihadist groups (i.e. Al-Qaeda Central, AQAP, JN, etc) react to this. Baghdadi et al just threw down the gauntlet, let's see who picks it up. Edit: Another relevant bit- quote:As for you, O soldiers of the platoons and organizations, know that after this consolidation and the IS just declared all other jihadist organizations abolished. pantslesswithwolves fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Jun 29, 2014 |
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Jun 29, 2014 17:24
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ReV VAdAUL posted:An odd question but what are they likely to be called by the wider world? "Those terrorists"
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Jun 29, 2014 17:24
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ReV VAdAUL posted:An odd question but what are they likely to be called by the wider world? Probably just ISIS or ISIL still since no one is going to recognize their new country. edit: or "The Group Formerly Known As ISIS"
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Jun 29, 2014 17:48
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suboptimal posted:IS just declared all other jihadist organizations abolished.  Anyone want to take bets on how long until the circular firing squad starts?
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Jun 29, 2014 17:53
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I'm guessing that by being THE Islamic State its telling Iran to 'Join or Die'.
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Jun 29, 2014 17:53
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 "I tried to warn you bro! I
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Jun 29, 2014 17:58
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McDowell posted:I'm guessing that by being THE Islamic State its telling Iran to 'Join or Die'. Given how they've treated Shi'a Muslims so far, I don't think they'll bother with the "Join or" part of that statement.
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Jun 29, 2014 17:59
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Dr. Tough posted:Probably just ISIS or ISIL still since no one is going to recognize their new country. Haven't they changed the name of the group though, so they would just call the group IS even if the state their named isn't recognized. Although just listening to Al Jazeera now, which are says they are now naming themselves the Islamic Caliphate not the Islamic State which sounds like another ISIS/ISIL translation thing happening. I'm sure this will be clarified soon... Maybe. s Edit: AJ now just said they are calling themselves Islamic State. I guess AJ is just using them interchangeably at the moment, so whatever. dr_rat fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Jun 29, 2014 |
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Jun 29, 2014 18:06
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Brown Moses posted:The latest video from ISIS - The End of Skyes-Picot, in English! "And the message to the people in the West: just keep giving it and we will take, keep taking, in'shallah... look how much money America spends to fight Islam, and just ends up being in our pockets!"  "We have helicopters, we have planes, we have Hummers... in'shallah, it's only a better future for us in the waiting."  old thread title.e: I wonder if it's too much to hope that they took the captured border guards outside before they blew up the border station.
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Jun 29, 2014 18:15
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