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Monkeytime posted:Can someone give a rundown of what's going on in Libya right now? Is it an east/west, urban/rural, or religious/secular divide? The militias follow tribal allegiances I think, which makes it less of a red vs blue situation, and more loose grouping of tribes opportunistically allying with each other. I'm sure others can give more details/describe why I'm wrong.
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Jul 15, 2014 04:39
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Monkeytime posted:Can someone give a rundown of what's going on in Libya right now? Is it an east/west, urban/rural, or religious/secular divide? d. All of the above. I've effort posted on this in the past, but a pretty huge component is the fact that Libya was Frankensteined a few decades ago from some not totally hostile but not totally cooperative groups. Basically two provinces -themselves super tribal in nature- taken from the Italians in WWII. One was the Senussi-led province of Cyrenaica (generally: more rural, less population, more strictly and conservatively religious, though not in a gently caress all westerners way- the Senussi order and it's leader were on the good end of the British stereotypes- the noble desert men schtick, kinda the last gasp of Lawrence of Arabia. Idris in turn recognized that the hands-off Brits were a better option than the Italians or the French. The other province, Tripolitania (also Fezzan, but there's nothing but loving sand and camels out there, it's pretty loving irrelevant) shared Italian occupation with Cyrenaica but not much else. Cyrenaica ended up faring better against the Italians in part because the Senussi were able to do a lot of cross tribal politicing that didn't happen in the west. Different centers of powers came up and the Italians were able to turn these against each other. (Eventually: the Italians were really poo poo at this colonialism thing until they started saying 'gently caress it' and rolled out gas attacks against civilians). A fair amount of what's going on is the east (Benghazi et. al.) not wanting to deal with the much more populated Tripolitanian regions. Any sort of centralized system, even a democratic one, is going to piss in their Cheerios and after Gaddafi they're about done with that. On the other hand, they're the ones sitting on all the oil so the Tripolitanians are kinda against them going all gently caress you dad. So that's one issue. The Gaddafi comes along and fucks things up in his own unique way. He waffled a lot between wanting to give 'the people' and local councils power and wanting to stamp potential threats (i.e. anyone that wasn't him with power) in the face. So basically he never did much by way of nation building or uniting so there was/is still this whole tribal structure going on. He also had a weird relationship with secular pan-Arab nationalism and Islamic extremism, alternately promoting and poopoohing one or the other as fit his mood/served his interests better. I think foreign and foreign influenced Islamic extremism is a pretty big factor in the area but as a cog in some of the other conflicts going on, not necessarily as a prime driver as in the case of ISIS. Mostly you've got different tribal/ethnic/personal interests jockeying over how centralized or decentralized they want things to be, and/or who they want in the drivers seat if there is going to be centralization. A lot of the east/west rural/urban secular/religious poo poo over laps with each other, but it's not real clear cut on what's the biggest push for the overall problem.
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Jul 15, 2014 04:49
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Kaal posted:The "Highway of Death" in the Gulf War was literally this writ large. It's fairly well-known as a traffic jam blown up vehicles a mile long. An Iraqi convoy got boxed by American aircraft, and the soldiers abandoned their vehicles en masse - probably a wise idea, because they were all shot to pieces. "But Kaal," you ask, "doesn't that highway have a reputation for being the burial ground of ten thousand poor Iraqi soldiers murdered by trigger-happy American imperialists?" It does! Thanks to the sterling efforts of people like journalist and thread-favorite Seymour Hersh, who basically fabricated the story. The way you wrote this, it sounds like the "Highway of Death" controversy itself was fabricated by Hersh. He's only mentioned in the article for talking about a spin-off battle. The article mentions a journalist who is critical of Hersh. Her article repeats the "fact" that tens of thousands were killed on this highway. quote:The Iraqis offered only disorganized and ragged opposition to the American invasion, in February of l99l," writes Hersh, setting the stage, "and the much feared ground war quickly turned into a bloody rout, with many of the retreating Iraqi units, including the elite Republican Guard, being pounded by American aircraft, artillery and tanks as they fled north in panic." The wikipedia article itself gives no clear indication of how many were killed; journalists say a bunch, the military says not many.
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Jul 15, 2014 04:53
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Regardless of what specifically happened, his point was to absolve the U.S. of any guilt over any situations that occurred from the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
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Jul 15, 2014 05:20
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FADEtoBLACK posted:Regardless of what specifically happened, his point was to absolve the U.S. of any guilt over any situations that occurred from the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The Highway of Death did not happen during the Iraq war.
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Jul 15, 2014 06:06
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Volkerball posted:
I have to say, I've seen videos of ISIS military actions and they reminded me of a game of Planetside 2 more than anything else. Lots of uncoordinated clustering at chokepoints, where the ISIS guys take turns to do the "run round the corner of a building, blindly spray gunfire at an enemy in cover 200 meters away while standing upright, then run back again to reload." They literally do behave as if getting shot doesn't matter, 'cos if they do, they'll just respawn in 10 seconds. The Iraqi army must be REALLY poo poo to be defeated by these jokers.
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Jul 15, 2014 06:09
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Volkerball posted:Retreat rather than take heavy losses, use car bombs, IED's, and ambushes, and outside of that, keep your head low. Uh isn't this like insurgency 101?
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Jul 15, 2014 07:01
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Rev up your conspiracy engine folks. It looks like one on the Bengazhi attack suspects has been found dead. Bengazhi! http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/14/world/africa/libya-benghazi-suspect-dead/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
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Jul 15, 2014 07:06
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Charliegrs posted:Uh isn't this like insurgency 101? Yes, which doesn't translate well to conventional fighting. They have land they're trying to hold, and they're trying to capture more. Can't just disappear into the shadows with no loss anymore. They have to hold the line.
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Jul 15, 2014 07:13
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Count Roland posted:The way you wrote this, it sounds like the "Highway of Death" controversy itself was fabricated by Hersh. He's only mentioned in the article for talking about a spin-off battle. The article mentions a journalist who is critical of Hersh. Her article repeats the "fact" that tens of thousands were killed on this highway. The wikipedia article itself gives no clear indication of how many were killed; journalists say a bunch, the military says not many. Oops I'm missing a comma there. Hersh is just an example of one of the many journalists who've promoted their version of the story despite all evidence to the contrary - one that I figured some might get a chuckle at. I definitely wouldn't say that this is a journalist/military controversy though - the allegations of mass deaths simply weren't borne out when the researchers started pouring over the matter, and at this point it's fairly well accepted by historians that journalists simply drove out to the bloodiest part of the convoy (where the Americans blocked the vehicles from retreating at the outset) and made the mistaken assumption that every vehicle contained dead bodies. But that just wasn't the case. It was a bumper to bumper traffic jam - when the Iraqis couldn't use their vehicles any more they made the smart decision and fled on foot. The alternative idea (that the Iraqi soldiers attempted to shelter in their trucks throughout a two day-long air offensive) simply doesn't hold water - who would wait for death like that, no matter how disciplined? Indeed the most famous picture from the Gulf War, Kenneth Jarecke's photo entitled "The Death of an Iraqi Soldier" (featuring a  burnt out corpse trying to get out of a truck), is often thought to have been emblematic of the "Highway of Death" but in fact wasn't from that event at all.
Kaal fucked around with this message at 07:53 on Jul 15, 2014 |
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Jul 15, 2014 07:22
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Volkerball posted:It's pretty funny because international news outlets portray them as battle-hardened warriors, but they are a running joke among all the fighting forces in the region not named the Iraqi army. People say they're just a bunch of naive European kids. The experienced ones only learned how to fight like they did in Iraq, which is how they fight in Syria: Retreat rather than take heavy losses, use car bombs, IED's, and ambushes, and outside of that, keep your head low. In direct military action, they'd get their heads kicked in. I'm sorry but is that supposed to mean something? They're an incredibly small force when compared to their enemies so of course they're using guerrilla tactics and infiltration. Did you expect them to form up into huge line infantry formations and march on Baghdad? They don't have the resources to field a significant force of tanks and planes, you're never going to see them willingly engage in open battle. What they do have going for them is their huge supplies of small arms, RPG's, explosive materials and troops with the know how (and morale) to use them effectively. VVVVVVV EDIT: I hadn't updated the page apparently. 
MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 08:20 on Jul 15, 2014 |
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Jul 15, 2014 08:08
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^^^^It happens.Xoidanor posted:I'm sorry but is that supposed to mean something? They're an incredibly small force when compared to their enemies so of course they're using guerrilla tactics and infiltration. Did you expect them to form up into huge line infantry formations and march on Baghdad? They don't have the resources to field a significant force of tanks and planes, you're never going to see them willingly engage in open battle. What they do have going for them is their huge supplies of small arms, RPG's, explosive materials and troops with the know how (and morale) to use them effectively. I addressed this just one post ago. From Aleppo.  Her name is Zaina, and she's a journalist living in the city. Well worth the follow if you're on twitter. https://twitter.com/ZainSyr Volkerball fucked around with this message at 08:32 on Jul 15, 2014 |
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Jul 15, 2014 08:15
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Iraqi militia and Army are invading Tikrit trying to retake the city. It was one of the last cities to be taken by ISIS, and was trumpeted as a huge success due to it being Saddam's birthplace and the location of his tomb. This will be important. Some Arab networks are reporting that they took the southern neighborhood already.
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Jul 15, 2014 08:48
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Just The Facts posted:Who would actually send troops in? The French? They're kind of already just next door. But given that the country is still in full-on austerity and that the Army's maintenance budget has been slashed every year for a decade, and that none of the EU countries have accepted to shoulder part of the cost for the interventions in Mali and Central Africa, they're about at the limit of what they can effectively do. They just don't have enough materiel in working order to send in Libya. In large part, what they had to use so far was old materiel stationed in French military bases in the former colonies 30 or 40 years ago and that was back then already obsolete compared to homeland materiel, because the stuff they airlifted at the beginning of the operations isn't enough. (They have brought some neat modern stuff, but not enough.)
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Jul 15, 2014 11:09
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Mightypeon posted:If the Russian civil War is any indication, ruthlessly "purging" your own side can have tactical and strategic advantadges. If you can reasonably expect that all other side will also commit atrocities, atrocities loose considerable amounts of their drawbacks. Late to the party, but this is bullshit. When your opponents literally consists of Leon Trotsky and White Guards, it doesn't matter who the hell you are, you will be dogpiled on.
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Jul 15, 2014 13:27
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Volkerball posted:^^^^It happens. Do leftists support Assad? Which parties/countries?
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Jul 15, 2014 13:39
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Dolash posted:Do leftists support Assad? Which parties/countries?
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Jul 15, 2014 13:41
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Volkerball posted:Iraqi militia and Army are invading Tikrit trying to retake the city. It was one of the last cities to be taken by ISIS, and was trumpeted as a huge success due to it being Saddam's birthplace and the location of his tomb. This will be important. Some Arab networks are reporting that they took the southern neighborhood already. The Iraqi Army has been trying and failing to retake Tikrit since a week or two ago, so this is really just the latest attempt. I'd take any report of their successes with a huge gain of salt too, the Iraqi government has been pumping out some outright Baghdad Bob material since the situation in the country went south.
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Jul 15, 2014 13:41
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Dolash posted:Do leftists support Assad? Which parties/countries? Some, yes. Many Latin American groups, as well as most European and Middle Eastern communist parties, generally back Assad. The Muqawama Syria, a pro-government militia, is officially Marxist-Leninist. Of course, I'm sure among individual members, and especially among socialists and anarchists, things become much more nuanced.
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Jul 15, 2014 14:00
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No socialist worth their salt and who aren't senile-demented 68 relics would back Assad. Certainly no anarchists would ever back Assad. This is left 101 stuff, people.
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Jul 15, 2014 15:34
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Tias posted:No socialist worth their salt and who aren't senile-demented 68 relics would back Assad. Certainly no anarchists would ever back Assad. This is left 101 stuff, people. I don't think Syrians have the same definition of leftist as DnD. There's a lot who either shy away from condemning Assad to maintain a false equivalency between the regime and the opposition, and a lot who outright support Assad by eating up Russian and Syrian reports implying that Saudi Arabia and the US created the uprising behind the scenes because imperialism. Those are the two viewpoints I see the most ranting against.
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Jul 15, 2014 16:08
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Dolash posted:Do leftists support Assad? Which parties/countries? http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13930318001100 quote:Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega Saavedra felicitated his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on his landslide victory in the recent presidential poll and his re-election for another 7-year term in office. The Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) http://blog.cpgb-ml.org/category/middle-east/syria-middle-east/ quote:Let us be clear. Syria is under attack because it stands in the way of imperialist domination of the Middle East. The country has a long history of opposing zionism and supporting the Palestinian struggle for liberation, and of standing up against imperialist interventions of all kinds in the Middle East and the wider world. President Assad is not a ‘dictator’ but the leader of a popular national-unity coalition government that seeks to protect its people from imperialist superexploitation. The New Communist Party of Britain (This shouldn't be surprising though since they also write "The world has much for which to thank Stalin, Man of Unparalleled Success. What a tragedy there has been no one to succeed him.") http://www.newworker.org/archive2011/nw20110902/fall_of_tripoli.html quote:Now the heat is on Syria. The imperialists have always regarded the Baathist government as an obstacle to their plans for the total domination of the Middle East. Syria’s support for the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance has, time and time again, thwarted Anglo-American attempts to impose a surrender peace on the Arabs. The Israeli Communist Party (of all things) http://www.challenge-mag.com/en/article__297/why_the_israeli_communist_party_defends_assad%E2%80%99s_regime The Workers Revolutionary Party (whose website reads like a parody) http://www.wrp.org.uk/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=9512 quote:ALL workers must support the stand of the Syrian delegation at the Geneva 2 Conference. and a bunch of random blogs http://gowans.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/what-the-syrian-constitution-says-about-assad-and-the-rebels/ quote:Were Assad to demonstrate a readiness to appease Wall Street’s demands he would have departed holus bolus from the dirigiste practices that had irritated the State Department. Instead, he did the opposite, drafting a constitution that mandated that the government maintain a role in guiding the economy on behalf of Syrian interests, and that the Syrian government would not make Syrians work for the interests of Western banks, oil companies, and other corporations. This was effectively a slap in Washington’s face. 
Nckdictator fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Jul 15, 2014 |
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Jul 15, 2014 16:40
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There are, unfortunately, many leftists who do support Assad, and it's an awful and stupid policy for them. One should be careful to separate 'opposed to US intervention in Syria' and 'support Assad', however.
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Jul 15, 2014 16:53
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New Division posted:The Iraqi Army has been trying and failing to retake Tikrit since a week or two ago, so this is really just the latest attempt. I'd take any report of their successes with a huge gain of salt too, the Iraqi government has been pumping out some outright Baghdad Bob material since the situation in the country went south. My understanding is they have been stacking up on the outskirts for the last two weeks, and they made the actual push today. Tikrit's governor is claiming they've retaken the city 2 hours into the operation, and militants are leaving the city. Rogue0071 posted:There are, unfortunately, many leftists who do support Assad, and it's an awful and stupid policy for them. One should be careful to separate 'opposed to US intervention in Syria' and 'support Assad', however. Those aren't mutually exclusive positions though. Just like being in favor of intervention and wanting to kill em all and let god sort them out aren't mutually exclusive. It's not whether you're opposed to intervention, but how you're opposed to intervention.
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Jul 15, 2014 16:58
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Volkerball posted:My understanding is they have been stacking up on the outskirts for the last two weeks, and they made the actual push today. Tikrit's governor is claiming they've retaken the city 2 hours into the operation, and militants are leaving the city. I'm not saying they're mutually exclusive, just that the latter does not in of itself imply the former. Although I'm opposed to US intervention in Syria and am rather pessimistic of the likelihood of a FSA victory, I despise the Assad regime and an FSA victory would be a better outcome than an Assad victory. Rogue0071 fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Jul 15, 2014 |
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Jul 15, 2014 17:22
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Rogue0071 posted:I'm not saying they're mutually exclusive, just that the latter does not in of itself imply the former. Although I'm opposed to US intervention in Syria and am rather pessimistic of the likelihood of a FSA victory, I despise the Assad regime and an FSA victory would be a better outcome than an Assad victory. Oh, I wasn't saying you were. Just pointing it out.
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Jul 15, 2014 17:42
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Tias posted:Late to the party, but this is bullshit. When your opponents literally consists of Leon Trotsky and White Guards, it doesn't matter who the hell you are, you will be dogpiled on. Eh, some kind of agreement between the not totally hardcore minor parties (like, Pilsudski + Petljura + Makhno) could have been a viable third option. Of course, Petljura was too antisemite to ally with Makhno (there were some feelers in that direction btw), Makhno didnt think highly of becoming a polish Vasall, and Pilsudki wasnt exactly a fan of anarchism. Interestingly, the take home message the Ukrainian Nationalists took from loosing the civil war was "Next time, we will be more/just as lovely than the competition!". In a way, all of these "medium to minor factions" didnt ally, partly because they perceived their supposed allies as weak.
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Jul 15, 2014 18:07
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Yes, but said perception of weakness did not stem primarily from the fact that the Makhovschina was a benevolent polity to its people. The Black Army was ruthless and efficient, they were (correctly) seen as weak because the reds turned their back on them and they were fighting a war surrounded on all fronts.
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Jul 15, 2014 20:09
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This is not a derail we need. news: Has anyone mentioned the enormous bomb that went off in Kabul? 89 dead; along with the latest election fiasco, it isn't really making Afghanistan look extra stable.
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Jul 15, 2014 22:00
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The Tikrit attack by the Iraqi army & militia friends failed again, though they'll certainly keep trying.
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Jul 15, 2014 22:56
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How exactly is the Iraqi army organized? From what I've read so far, someone got the idea that all they needed to do was mimic the American officer method which basically means your actual fighters are poorly trained and have no unit cohesion. Do they actually use just volunteers or are people being drafted?
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Jul 15, 2014 23:14
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Is there a provision in Islam that allows soldiers to bypass the Ramadan fast during days of conflict?
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Jul 15, 2014 23:19
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Shaocaholica posted:Is there a provision in Islam that allows soldiers to bypass the Ramadan fast during days of conflict? Yes.
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Jul 15, 2014 23:22
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Yes, don't know how common it is for soldiers to take that exception though.
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Jul 15, 2014 23:23
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Xandu posted:Yes, don't know how common it is for soldiers to take that exception though. I imagine it's fairly common. It seems like they'd be wobbly-kneed by midday otherwise.
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Jul 15, 2014 23:31
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Friendly Factory posted:I imagine it's fairly common. It seems like they'd be wobbly-kneed by midday otherwise. Well they seem to be achieving that regardless.
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Jul 15, 2014 23:40
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The Iraqi parliament finally got around to doing something today and appointed a new speaker, Salim al-Jabouri from the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party. There is a lot of mumbling that the break in the impasse is the result of a deal reached between the various factions, looks like Maliki is out and the smart money is on current acting foreign minister Hussain al-Shahristani to nab the PM post. Electing a President is the next task, Barzani seems to have dropped his ambitions and has thrown his weight behind former KRG-PM Barham Salih from the PUK. Salih has been developing close connections with Iran so they'll be pleased and he cut his teeth among the diaspora in the west so I'm sure America will be happy. Barzani will also be thrilled as he get's to piss in Talabani's cornflakes - Talabani does not get on with Salih and is backing the current Kirkuk governor Najmaddin Karim for President, there are rifts developing within the PUK over which candidate the party should officially endorse and I'm sure Barzani is relishing putting the boot in. Karim has been one of the loudest voices within the PUK criticizing Barzani's handling of the current crisis, he has emphasized the need for any Kirkuk referendum to be conducted in conjuction with Baghdad and has taken a much more cautious approach to possible independence. Karim and Talabani might be able to sway votes from Shia and Sunni blocs to seriously challenge Salih.
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Jul 15, 2014 23:43
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Xandu posted:Yes, don't know how common it is for soldiers to take that exception though. Some Muslims playing during the World Cup used it, so I imagine the soldiers might.
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Jul 15, 2014 23:52
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This stupid parody account got a lot of people screaming at it for this
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Jul 16, 2014 00:15
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ShutteredIn posted:This stupid parody account got a lot of people screaming at it for this Good.
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Jul 16, 2014 00:48
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