Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

WoodrowSkillson posted:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrett_M82

Having a huge bullet means you can shoot it really far and still be pretty accurate if you know what you are doing.

I do wonder what the anti-materiel rifle really is. It's not an M82 but it's not KSVK either. They seem to be common with Kurdish snipers but not elsewhere, could it be a domestic product?

It seems bolt-action, that doesn't leave many options.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:02

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 19:39

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Volkerball posted:

While one day ISIS might be strong enough to rule against the will of all Sunni's in the north (a day that might have already passed), right now they are clearly getting popular support. Whether it be a common goal of pushing Shia's and Kurds out, pushing out the Iraqi Army, or ethnic cleansing, ISIS has the influence to be the face of Sunni's in Iraq, and that's accepted. You can't invade and "hearts and minds" that away, or draw arbitrary borders around them and expect that to contain them. It seems the only thing that can stop Sunni aggression at this point is the overthrow of the government, and that could easily just tip the pendulum the other way and get Shia's up in arms behind the death squads.

What I'm talking about would be directly undermining this reason to support ISIS, by getting rid of the Iraqi Army, as well as the Shias and the Kurds (in the relevant areas). Admittedly the US would be the country actually having to carry out this plan, so there's still some tension there, but on the face of it US involvement seems less important than what specifically the US is doing. Unless we assume the Sunnis are nearly unanimous in their desire to either subjugate the Shias, or to ethnically cleanse them from any territory in which Sunnis live, at which point a united Iraq once more seems a complete impossibility.

farraday posted:

When you're talking about partitioning the country based on blood or religion you are, in fact, prizing those qualities and making them even more important in the future, not diminishing them.

I'm only advocating it because there's so much bad blood in this conflict that I have a hard time imagining things getting better without first separating these people from each other. Giving these people their own states which they feel represents them allows them to move on, even if it will take decades, creating a foundation for future interaction not based on hatred and fear. Like whatever7 said, confidence in your position allows you to be more relaxed in your relation to minorities, and the current perpetual civil war Iraq is hardly the environment to build such confidence in.

farraday posted:

Because there are not three ethno-religious groups in Iraq meaning you'd have minority groups left and highly subject to oppression when you've created a national identity they are not part of. Nor does partition remove the ethno-religiosu tension. even now the third largest Muslim county in the world is India. Tell me do you feel the history of India since partition has evinced a lack of tension based on religion? Demographic growth of the Muslim population relative to the Hindu population means partition, making them sit on separate sides of the bench, is now more a pipe dream then at any time since partition.

Demographic growth of Muslims relative to the Hindu population, to the point it's actual an issue, implies there were still plenty of Muslims in India after the partition, doesn't it? How big are the groups not represented by Kurdistan, Shia Iraq, and Sunni Iraq? Are they seen as threats in the same way a Sunni Iraqi might view a Shia Iraqi? It's not just a question of there being different ethnicities, it's also how those ethnicities have interacted throughout their history. The Sunni/Shia struggle for dominance makes a common state with those two hard, while the treatment of the Kurds by the Iraqi government makes keeping them a problem, but it doesn't follow then that Iraqi Turkmen could not function within a Kurdish state. (Unless there's some history I'm unaware of here.)

farraday posted:

Nor can the obvious resource disparity be comfortably ignored as the sides of the bench to which you might separate them are not equal. finally the envisioned states do not represent natural borders of the ethno-religious groups suggested as primary nation-states. Even if you could somehow come to an agreement internal to Iraq, you are creating a situation where irredentism is not only likely it's almost a necessity.

So I see no way in which the partition of Iraq reduces minority repression, inter-religious conflict, or international instability, so by which understanding does it represent "better?"

Irredentism should subside over time, if the ethnic borders are made to match the new state borders. Not immediately of course, and some people will continue to fantasize about their rightful claims, but not having any of your brethren in the territory in question is going to diminish the power of irredentism, and make attempts at conquering it much harder. It's not even like significant tension and desire to take territory has to mean open conflict either, it might just be limited to significant tension and very little diplomatic contact, which would still be a big step up from the status quo.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:07

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

A Buttery Pastry posted:

What I'm talking about would be directly undermining this reason to support ISIS, by getting rid of the Iraqi Army, as well as the Shias and the Kurds (in the relevant areas). Admittedly the US would be the country actually having to carry out this plan, so there's still some tension there, but on the face of it US involvement seems less important than what specifically the US is doing. Unless we assume the Sunnis are nearly unanimous in their desire to either subjugate the Shias, or to ethnically cleanse them from any territory in which Sunnis live, at which point a united Iraq once more seems a complete impossibility.

Well they're supporting loving ISIS, so. Also have not heard of one Sunni group fighting alongside the Kurds and Shia militias against ISIS despite there being hundreds of thousands of fighting age Iraqi Sunni's with experience.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:26

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Volkerball posted:

Well they're supporting loving ISIS, so. Also have not heard of one Sunni group fighting alongside the Kurds and Shia militias against ISIS despite there being hundreds of thousands of fighting age Iraqi Sunni's with experience.

Because things are so hosed-up in Iraq that supporting ISIS might actually be in the best interests of the Sunnis, at least in the short term?

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:43

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5m2S_wXVh0

:catstare:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5m2S_wXVh0

Kurds are really bad at youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9P6jzOeKNc

Pop music takes a strange turn when there is literally a war going on.

:nms:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=185_1408804575 :nms:

YPG ambushed by IS. I guess the women fighters die :smith:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wEGnA3ec1M

Listed as a night skirmish between ISIS and peshmerga, it is very blurry so it is hard to see what it actually shows.

maybe connected to this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R4A5b1qzCk

I cannot imagine that they are doing much besides wasting bullets.

:nms:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDYIQJy4JJI :nms:

Kurds video taping bodies somewhere, but there are stills that appear to show them executing IS fighters.

I think it is related to the mosul dam fight.

Edit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouHFxaC5jkA
IED attack on peshmerga.

Torpor fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:48

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

I'm only advocating it because there's so much bad blood in this conflict that I have a hard time imagining things getting better without first separating these people from each other. Giving these people their own states which they feel represents them allows them to move on, even if it will take decades, creating a foundation for future interaction not based on hatred and fear. Like whatever7 said, confidence in your position allows you to be more relaxed in your relation to minorities, and the current perpetual civil war Iraq is hardly the environment to build such confidence in.

Cite examples otherwise all this is is your ideology in the place of argument. Should we start closest to home? What is the minority experience in America under the confidence of position of the white power structure? no, maybe Australia then. Minority groups in France? Where does this optimism spring from exactly? Somewhere closer? Turkey perhaps?

You don't create pluralism by privileging ethnic identity.

quote:

Demographic growth of Muslims relative to the Hindu population, to the point it's actual an issue, implies there were still plenty of Muslims in India after the partition, doesn't it? How big are the groups not represented by Kurdistan, Shia Iraq, and Sunni Iraq? Are they seen as threats in the same way a Sunni Iraqi might view a Shia Iraqi?

Just fyi the only way to read this is that ethnic cleansing wasn't thorough enough. That if the remnant populations are small enough issues will vanish. The Tamil make up l5% of Sri Lanka. Muslims made up roughly 10% of post partition/cleansing India. Given that Kurds make up about 20% of the population of Iraq and Tukrmen's another 5%, if we were to create a nation from those population groups the turkmen would constitute somewhere between 10 and 20% of the resulting country.

Is the problem then that there are too many Turkmen inside Kurdistan? Do we ignored the threat of "kurdification" a term I assure you I did not make up simply because we want to view the Kurds as a model minority?

quote:

Irredentism should subside over time, if the ethnic borders are made to match the new state borders. Not immediately of course, and some people will continue to fantasize about their rightful claims, but not having any of your brethren in the territory in question is going to diminish the power of irredentism, and make attempts at conquering it much harder. It's not even like significant tension and desire to take territory has to mean open conflict either, it might just be limited to significant tension and very little diplomatic contact, which would still be a big step up from the status quo.

I want to point out that this phrasing is specifically demanding again that the populations living in a region be made to match the borders, which is literally a call for ethnic cleansing.

farraday fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:51

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

That alleged ansar al sunnah bombing video would be a new action for a group that hasn't done anything in a few years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaat_Ansar_al-Sunna

Edit: a quick google search shows them being mentioned only since about august of this year.

Torpor fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:55

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Because things are so hosed-up in Iraq that supporting ISIS might actually be in the best interests of the Sunnis, at least in the short term?

Obviously. It'd be in the best interest of liberals in the US to have marauding gangs running through the country massacring conservatives by the hundreds as well. If your interests align with ISIS' interests, your interests are morally bankrupt.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:57

Best Friends: Nov 4, 2011

"Man I'm tired of hearing about the Iraqi government and Shia militias persecuting Sunnis.

The obvious solution is to let the Iraqi government and Shia militias relocate or murder the Sunnis."

# ? Aug 23, 2014 20:57

BrutalistMcDonalds: Oct 4, 2012; Lipstick Apathy

Torpor posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wEGnA3ec1M

Listed as a night skirmish between ISIS and peshmerga, it is very blurry so it is hard to see what it actually shows.

I think I've seen this listed before as a clash with Syrian government forces.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:02

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

farraday posted:

Is the problem then that there are too many Turkmen inside Kurdistan? Do we ignored the threat of "kurdification" a term I assure you I did not make up simply because we want to view the Kurds as a model minority?

Like I explicitly pointed out, I'm not aware of a similar history between the Turkmen and the Kurds which would necessarily lead to the same sort of conflict as seen with the Sunni and Shia Iraqis. Obviously it could be recreated to some degree, if someone went in and placed a Turkmen strongman on top for a few decades, then toppled his regime, but just making a majority Kurdish state with a bunch of Turkmen being part of it wouldn't automatically be an issue.

farraday posted:

I want to point out that this phrasing is specifically demanding again that the populations living in a region be made to match the borders, which is literally a call for ethnic cleansing.

Yes? I have not made any attempts at all to hide the fact that my solution requires population transfers. As I see it, the alternative is the civil war continuing forever, genocidal ethnic cleansing included. Population transfers in this case would essentially be a proactive refuge program, trying to solve the problem at the source instead of just helping the people who manage to escape. (Or just keeping them in refugee camps forever.)

Volkerball posted:

If your interests align with ISIS' interests, your interests are morally bankrupt.

ISIS' interests include opposing the Iraqi government and Shia militias. That's hardly a morally bankrupt interest when one treats Sunnis as second-class citizens, and the other tries to exterminate them. If ISIS provides the needed strength for those interests, then what choice do the Sunnis have? Should they just lie down and take it? Supporting a group like ISIS doesn't come from a position of strength.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:36

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

Anyone know what symbol that is?

from this video:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2ae_1408793955

They seem very well armed.

Edit: a second view:

Torpor fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:37

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

Volkerball posted:

Also gives you more leeway to miss. You can miss by a foot with a .50 and still rip someone in half.

Not even remotely close to physically possible. You've probably read that fake story about the shockwave from a .50 cal bullet can mess people up. I've had to clarify this with several people so don't feel too bad. If your bullet misses, it just misses. You still have to hit the target to kill it.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:50

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Yes? I have not made any attempts at all to hide the fact that my solution requires population transfers. As I see it, the alternative is the civil war continuing forever, genocidal ethnic cleansing included. Population transfers in this case would essentially be a proactive refuge program, trying to solve the problem at the source instead of just helping the people who manage to escape. (Or just keeping them in refugee camps forever.)

I just want it clear to everyone you are literally advocating for a crime against humanity.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:50

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

Torpor posted:

Anyone know what symbol that is?

Parastin. They're the intelligence branch of the KRG connected to the Asayish. I've only seen those kicking rad black jeeps driven by the Eastern branch who are strongly PUK affiliated and got armed to the teeth to fight Ansar al-Islam.

edit: Specifically I think they're used by Dija Terror (DT) which is an Anti-Terrorism task force within the Parastin commanded by Lahur Talabani, Jalal Talabani's nephew.

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:51

Cocoa Ninja: Mar 3, 2007

Volkerball posted:

Also gives you more leeway to miss. You can miss by a foot with a .50 and still rip someone in half.

I didn't know that. Is that because of the shockwave or something?

Edit: ah thanks Sergg.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:54

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

Has there ever been a mass population transfer that didn't kill massive numbers of people in modern history?

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:54

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

A Buttery Pastry posted:

ISIS' interests include opposing the Iraqi government and Shia militias. That's hardly a morally bankrupt interest when one treats Sunnis as second-class citizens, and the other tries to exterminate them. If ISIS provides the needed strength for those interests, then what choice do the Sunnis have? Should they just lie down and take it? Supporting a group like ISIS doesn't come from a position of strength.

They absolutely are in a position of strength. I'd bet ISI killed more sahwa fighters and other sunni's they branded traitors than shia's have killed sunni's since 2008. Thousands have died in shia territory over the last year. The bombings are nonstop. Why do you think the Iraqi Army was so quick to give up in Mosul? It's because they were tired of getting blown up every day for years on end. Yeah, the Maliki government was certainly biased against sunni's, and there's definitely been operations by death squads aimed at indiscriminate slaughter, but in no way are they helpless, oppressed people who had to choose between ISIS or death. They are armed tribes in a region where everyone has a gun and everyone knows how to use it coming together and saying these ISIS guys are on the right track. That's hosed.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:55

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Sergg posted:

Not even remotely close to physically possible. You've probably read that fake story about the shockwave from a .50 cal bullet can mess people up. I've had to clarify this with several people so don't feel too bad. If your bullet misses, it just misses. You still have to hit the target to kill it.

I actually :nms:

saw the deflated face of a man who's skull was ripped out of his skin by a .50 bullet passing over his head behind cover. Source?

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 21:56

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

Volkerball posted:

I actually saw the deflated face of a man who's skull was ripped out of his skin by a .50 bullet passing over his head behind cover. Source?

That bullet either struck his head or it missed and something else did that to his head. Source: the Laws of Physics.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:03

Rent-A-Cop: Oct 15, 2004; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Volkerball posted:

Source?

Basic physics?

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:04

J33uk: Oct 24, 2005

Rent-A-Cop posted:

Basic physics?

Even the Mythbusters have done this one by now

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:06

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

J33uk posted:

Even the Mythbusters have done this one by now

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MythBusters_(2009_season)#Sonic_Boom_Sound-off

Yerp, it doesn't even break windows, let alone rip a dude's skull out. Like I said Volckerball, old urban legend and you aren't the first person I've explained this to.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:08

Berke Negri: Feb 15, 2012; Les Ricains tuent et moi je mue
Mao Mao
Les fous sont rois et moi je bois
Mao Mao
Les bombes tonnent et moi je sonne
Mao Mao
Les bebes fuient et moi je fuis
Mao Mao

I thought he was just joking that the round is so big it would still hit someone if you missed, the idea of deadly bullet drift fields killing people is pretty borderlands.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:09

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Sergg posted:

That bullet either struck his head or it missed and something else did that to his head. Source: the Laws of Physics.

His face was intact right up to the hairline. It might have just clipped him, but I'd assume a bullet the size of my hand traveling 2/3 of a mile a second can do some strange things.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:10

Radio Prune: Feb 19, 2010

New video from IS showing the capture of Brigade 93 (I think) in Syria

Kinda :nms:

in the last third https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igWc_aZHJQ8

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:11

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

Volkerball posted:

His face was intact right up to the hairline. It might have just clipped him, but I'd assume a bullet the size of my hand traveling 2/3 of a mile a second can do some strange things.

I dare you to post this in GiP. You will be laughed at.

Radio Prune posted:

New video from IS showing the capture of Brigade 93 (I think) in Syria

Kinda in the last third https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igWc_aZHJQ8

That is actually some amazing cinematography! Finally some Iraqi was able to make use of his degree in Film and Video Productions.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:12

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Sergg posted:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MythBusters_(2009_season)#Sonic_Boom_Sound-off

Yerp, it doesn't even break windows, let alone rip a dude's skull out. Like I said Volckerball, old urban legend and you aren't the first person I've explained this to.

Huh. Hadn't seen that one. M2 has a higher muzzle velocity than the sniper, but not enough to make that much of a difference.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:14

Radio Prune: Feb 19, 2010

Volkerball posted:

a bullet the size of my hand

huh?

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:14

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Sergg posted:

I dare you to post this in GiP. You will be laughed at.

It was a pretty widely held belief in the infantry, but I do enjoy getting told things by pogs who don't even know how to time a .50. Not taking a stab at you, but gip always makes me laugh.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:17

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Radio Prune posted:

huh?

I was including the cartridge and also I have baby hands.

VVV Very true

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:28

Rent-A-Cop: Oct 15, 2004; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Volkerball posted:

It was a pretty widely held belief in the infantry

This is how you know it isn't true.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:31

GuyinCognito: Nov 26, 2008; by Ralp

I found this an interesting read

quote:

Some jihadists or pro-jihadist Salafists have issued video clips and tweets explaining their lack of assistance to the Palestinians. One tweet stated, �The Hamas government is apostate, and what it is doing does not constitute jihad, but rather a defense of democracy [which Salafists oppose].� Another tweet said, �Khaled Meshaal: Hamas fights for the sake of freedom and independence. The Islamic State: it fights so that all religion can be for God.� Meshaal is head of Hamas' political bureau.

On July 22, the Egyptian Salafist sheikh Talaat Zahran declared that it is inappropriate to aid the people of Gaza because they do not follow a legitimate leadership, and because they are equivalent to Shiites since they follow them, referring to Hezbollah and Iran, with which the Sunni Hamas movement has been allied. Thus the jihadists' position is not simply a political stance, but stems from Salafist theological principles.

Salafists believe that jihad must be performed under legitimate leadership. This argument is advanced through the �banner and commander� concept, which holds that whoever undertakes jihad must follow a commander who fulfills the criteria of religious and political leadership and has raised the banner of jihad. Given that there is neither a legitimate leader nor a Salafist-approved declaration of jihad in Palestine, fighting there is forbidden.

In addition, for Salafists, if non-Muslims control Islamic countries and apostates exist in the Islamic world, the Islamic world must be cleansed of them before all else. In short, the purification of Islamic society takes priority over combat against non-Islamic societies. On this basis, Salafists see conflict with an allegedly illegitimate Hamas government as a first step toward confrontation with Israel. Should the opportunity for military action present itself in the Palestinian territories, Salafists would fight Hamas and other factions deemed in need of �cleansing� from the land and engage Israel afterward.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/islamic-state-fighting-hamas-priority-before-israel.html#%23ixzz3BFkE9GxD

Sunnis need to get their poo poo together. At least some Sunnis aren't barbarians and A lot of them are fighting the terrorists in Syria and Iraq even though the Sunni communities have been generally for genocide of minorities and shia.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:32

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Volkerball posted:

They absolutely are in a position of strength. I'd bet ISI killed more sahwa fighters and other sunni's they branded traitors than shia's have killed sunni's since 2008. Thousands have died in shia territory over the last year. The bombings are nonstop. Why do you think the Iraqi Army was so quick to give up in Mosul? It's because they were tired of getting blown up every day for years on end. Yeah, the Maliki government was certainly biased against sunni's, and there's definitely been operations by death squads aimed at indiscriminate slaughter, but in no way are they helpless, oppressed people who had to choose between ISIS or death. They are armed tribes in a region where everyone has a gun and everyone knows how to use it coming together and saying these ISIS guys are on the right track. That's hosed.

You seem very eager to cast entire ethnic groups and regions as a targets of collective punishment without any reflection on what the aftermath of that would be, either in Syria (were you seem be rooting for Sunnis to punish the Shia population and now vice-verse in Iraq). Trying to portray entire ethnic groups as comic-book villains has always been laughable but it is especially so in current-day Iraq.

Collective punishment against the Sunnis means a collective punishment against a large civilian population, and I don't think any "sins" are enough to justify that.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:32

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

One interesting fact about the Sunnis in Iraq is that there's apparently a widespread belief that they are in fact the demographic majority in the country, and that any government that does not reflect that fact is illegitimate. The Sunnis in Iraq definitely seem to harbor some delusional, harmful beliefs. But then again, you can say that about every group there. Even the Kurds ultimately only seem interested in the Iraqi community to the extent that they can siphon money out of the government in Baghdad and build up their proto-state. They certainly did very little when ISIS initially blitzed Mosul other than leap into Kirkuk, a disputed territory they wanted.

New Division fucked around with this message at 22:42 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:39

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Ardennes posted:

You seem very eager to cast entire ethnic groups and regions as a targets of collective punishment without any reflection on what the aftermath of that would be, either in Syria (were you seem be rooting for Sunnis to punish the Shia population and now vice-verse in Iraq). Trying to portray entire ethnic groups as comic-book villains has always been laughable but it is especially so in current-day Iraq.

Collective punishment against the Sunnis means a collective punishment against a large civilian population, and I don't think any "sins" are enough to justify that.

I'm not portraying ethnic groups one way or the other. I'm referring to their leadership, and the tribal leaders and various other sunni power structures in Iraq that are clearly unanimously in favor of ISIS right now. That is not going to ease tensions with the shia, and it's not a step in the direction of an Iraqi government that is representative to sunni's and shia. I'm not "rooting" for the shia in Iraq. The difference is that moderate sunni's in Syria fight ISIS, and they speak of removing Assad and negotiating with the regime after that to create a government that works for everyone. In fact, the Syrians could sign up with ISIS, disband the FSA, and the opposition would be better for it from a military standpoint. A united opposition would probably go a long way towards taking Damascus. But they haven't resorted to that, despite facing infinitely more brutality than Iraqi sunni's. I can get behind that. I can't get behind what sunni's in Iraq are doing, even if the oppression against them is real. The powers that be within the Iraqi sunni community don't act consistently with trying to remove oppression, but rather, as temporarily disgraced Maliki's. It's not about punishment at all. That's the last thing anyone needs to be worrying about in the middle east.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 22:44

swizz: Oct 10, 2004; I can recall being broke with some friends in Tennessee and deciding to have a party and being able to afford only two-fifths of a $1.75 bourbon called Two Natural, whose label showed dice coming up 5 and 2. Its taste was memorable. The psychological effect was also notable.

Radio Prune posted:

New video from IS showing the capture of Brigade 93 (I think) in Syria

Kinda in the last third https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igWc_aZHJQ8

Very tough to watch at parts but made it through. Huge explosion about six minutes and a half minutes in, suicide truck

# ? Aug 23, 2014 23:21

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

From WSJ on Assad using ISIS.

quote:

The Islamic State, which metastasized from a group of militants seeking to overthrow the Syrian government into a marauding army gobbling up chunks of the Middle East, gained momentum early on from a calculated decision by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to go easy on it, according to people close to the regime.

Earlier in the three-year-old Syrian uprising, Mr. Assad decided to mostly avoid fighting the Islamic State to enable it to cannibalize the more secular rebel group supported by the West, the Free Syrian Army, said Izzat Shahbandar, an Assad ally and former Iraqi lawmaker who was Baghdad's liaison to Damascus. The goal, he said, was to force the world to choose between the regime and extremists.

"When the Syrian army is not fighting the Islamic State, this makes the group stronger," said Mr. Shahbandar, a close aide to former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who said Mr. Assad described the strategy to him personally during a visit in May to Damascus. "And sometimes, the army gives them a safe path to allow the Islamic State to attack the FSA and seize their weapons."

"It's a strategy to eliminate the FSA and have the two main players face each other in Syria: Assad and the Islamic State," said Mr. Shahbandar. "And now [Damascus] is asking the world to help, and the world can't say no."

The Islamic State, also known by the acronyms ISIS and ISIL, has emerged recently as a major threat to the entire region and beyond. Its seizure of territory in neighboring Iraq triggered American airstrikes, and its execution this week of kidnapped American journalist James Foley prompted President Barack Obama to vow to continue the U.S. air war against the group in Iraq and to relentlessly pursue the killers. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the group can't be defeated without choking off its operations in Syria.

This account of how the Islamic State benefited from the complex three-way civil war in Syria between the government, the largely secular, moderate rebels and the hard-core Islamist groups was pieced together from interviews with Syrian rebel commanders and opposition figures, Iraqi government officials and Western diplomats, as well as al Qaeda documents seized by the U.S. military in Iraq.

The Assad regime now appears to be shifting away from its early reluctance to engage the group.

In June, Syria launched airstrikes on the group's headquarters in Raqqa in northern Syria, the first large-scale offensive against the militant group since it rose to power a year ago. This week, Syria flew more than three dozen sorties on Raqqa, its biggest assault on the group yet.

The Syrian ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Abdel-Karim Ali, denied that Damascus supported the Islamic State early on and praised his government's battlefield response to the group, pointing to dozens of recent strikes on the group's headquarters.

"Our priorities changed as these groups emerged," Mr. Ali said in an interview at his office. "Last month it was protecting Damascus, for example. Today it is Raqqa."

Speaking of the Islamic State aggression that has decimated the more secular FSA, he said: "When these groups clashed, the Syrian government benefited. When you have so many enemies and they clash with each other, you must take advantage of it. You step back, see who is left and finish them off."

Mr. Shahbandar said the Islamic State's recent success forced the Syrian government and its Iranian allies to ramp up their military assaults, hoping the West will throw its weight behind Damascus and Tehran to defeat the extremists. Such cooperation would put the U.S. and its regional allies such as Saudi Arabia in an uncomfortable position, after years of supporting the FSA and demanding that Mr. Assad step down.

There are some signs that the opposing sides might be willing to work together. In Iraq, the U.S. began arming Kurdish Peshmerga forces this month, while the Iranians sent advisers.

The Syrian government facilitated the predecessor to the Islamic State�al Qaeda in Iraq�when that group's primary target was U.S. troops then in the country.

In 2007, U.S. military forces raided an al Qaeda training camp in Sinjar, northern Iraq. They uncovered a trove of documents outlining Damascus's support to the extremists, according to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, which publicly released the records. The Sinjar records detailed the flow of extremists from across the Middle East to the Damascus airport.

Syrian intelligence agents detained the fighters as they landed in the capital, holding them at the Sadnaya military prison on the city's outskirts. If deemed a threat to the country, they would remain imprisoned, the records indicate. But if their intentions were solely to fight U.S. troops in Iraq, Syrian intelligence would facilitate their flow across the border, the records show. Making that journey were many Saudis and Libyans�the same nationalities that today bolster the ranks of the Islamic State.

Mr. Maliki's former spokesman, Ali Aldabbagh, said in an interview that he attended heated meetings in Damascus during which Baghdad asked Mr. Assad to stop the flow of al Qaeda militants across the border. He said Syria brushed off the requests.

"The Assad regime played a key role in ISIL's rise," said U.S. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf at a news conference earlier this month. "They allowed for a security situation where ISIL could grow in strength. The Syrian regime fostered the growth of terrorist networks. They facilitated the flow of al Qaeda foreign fighters in�Iraq."

The Assad regime denies providing any support to the groups.

By the time the U.S. military withdrew from Iraq in December 2011, the militant group was nearly decimated. It regrouped in northeast Syria as the revolution was becoming a civil war. It was led by a charismatic figure from Samarra, Iraq, who goes by the name of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

In May 2011, after the first protests broke out in Syria, the Syrian government released from the Sadnaya military prison some of its most high-value detainees imprisoned for terrorism, the first in a series of general amnesties. At least nine went on to lead extremist groups in Syria, and four currently serve the Islamic State, statements from the extremist groups and interviews with other rebels show.

Mr. Ali, the Syrian ambassador to Lebanon, said Damascus had released only common criminals in the amnesties, who were then offered money by extremist groups to fight against the government.

"When Syria released these people, they hadn't committed terrorist crimes," he said. "They were just criminals. In 2011, there were calls for freedom and accusations that Damascus was imprisoning people, so we hosted several amnesties [to demonstrate] our goodwill."

Bassam Barabandi, a diplomat in Syria's foreign ministry at the time who has since defected, offered a different explanation. "The fear of a continued, peaceful revolution is why these Islamists were released," he said. "The reasoning behind the jihadists, for Assad and the regime, is that they are the alternative to the peaceful revolution. They are organized with the doctrine of jihad and the West is afraid of them."

The U.S. has been reluctant to supply arms to the moderate rebels for fear that the weaponry would wind up in the hands of extremists.

By the start of 2012, radical groups were entrenched in the Syrian uprising, with al Nusra Front, al Qaeda's Syrian arm, the biggest player. Last year, Nusra split over an ideological and leadership struggle. Most of the group's foreign fighters formed what was then known as Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, since renamed Islamic State.

The split between Nusra and the Islamic State created a fissure among al Qaeda supporters. The Islamic State presented itself as truer to al Qaeda's past, with its more radical social codes, and was more focused than its predecessor in creating a caliphate, or Islamic empire.

The Islamic State militants despised the FSA and its largely secular rebels, denouncing them as nonbelievers. By last summer, the Islamic State began grabbing territory the FSA had captured from the regime. In September, the Islamic State defeated the FSA's Northern Storm Brigade in Azaz, a border outpost between Aleppo province and Turkey. The Islamic State quickly imposed its hard-line version of Islam, forbidding smoking, enforcing the segregation of the sexes and conservative dress.

The Islamic State continued to take territory and impose its social codes on more of Syria, growing more ruthless over time. In January, disparate rebel factions united to turn their guns on Islamic State fighters, while angry civilians simultaneously rose up against the group. The FSA drove the Islamic State from its strongholds across Syria.

Shifting alliances between various rebel groups made the situation murky.

In the northern city of Raqqa, Islamic State fighters were ensconced in three municipal buildings by mid-January, surrounded by rebels from the FSA and Islamic Front, a coalition of religious rebel groups. The Islamist militia Ahrar al-Sham, fighting alongside the FSA, posed the biggest threat, and Islamic State fighters appeared ready to surrender to that group.

"They got on the loudspeakers and said, 'We are your Muslim brothers. Don't kill us. Let us withdraw peacefully with our weapons,' " said Mohammed Abu Seif, an FSA rebel in Raqqa who was present at the standoff.

FSA fighters said their leaders wanted to continue the attack. They were prepared to kill the Islamic State militants, said Mr. Abu Seif and several other rebels involved in the fighting.

But Ahrar al-Sham wavered, they said, taking pity on their Muslim brethren. FSA fighters pressed on, hoping to wipe out the Islamic State and restore the secular roots of their revolution, according to Mr. Abu Seif and the other rebels.

But by the fourth day, Ahrar al-Sham started to withdraw from Raqqa. Rebels say a previously unreported deal was cut for Ahrar al-Sham and the Islamic State to swap territory. The Islamic State agreed to withdraw from Aleppo and Azaz, a border crossing with Turkey. In exchange, Ahrar al Sham would withdraw from Raqqa and Tal Abyad, another border town.

The FSA found themselves surrounded in the Raqqa suburbs by thousands of Islamic State fighters who were retreating from FSA advances elsewhere. On the eighth day, the FSA and its affiliates retreated, leaving Raqqa to the Islamic State.

By the spring, the Islamic State had used what amounted to a sanctuary in Raqqa to rejuvenate its ranks. With Raqqa as its base and headquarters, the militants went back on the offensive, storming across Syria, while its branch in Iraq did the same just across the border.

By June, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared a caliphate and renamed ISIS the Islamic State, declaring nearly 12,000 square miles of contiguous territory across western Iraq and in Syria's north and east�an area the size of Belgium�a newly formed Islamic caliphate. The group now threatens the borders of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, where it briefly occupied a Lebanese border town this month.

Still, at times its actions appeared to help the Syrian government in its fight against the FSA. Aleppo, Syria's largest city, remained one of the few major strongholds of FSA resistance. Last month, the Islamic State quietly withdrew from the city's northeastern suburbs, clearing the way for Syrian government forces to stream in. Not a shot was fired. The gains enabled government forces to flank FSA rebels from three sides in Aleppo.

As FSA fighters struggle to hold off the regime, they also are fighting Islamic State militants in the countryside just north of Aleppo. Only 4 miles remain to fully encircle and besiege Aleppo. If FSA rebels lose the battle, it could spell the end of their revolution, rebels say.

Today, at a time when the FSA's ranks are thinning, new recruits from the Middle East and beyond are flocking to the Islamic State, crossing the Turkish border to settle themselves and sometimes their families in Raqqa. The group's fighters and core members are largely Syrians and Iraqis, but recruits are arriving from as far away as Europe and the U.S., say American intelligence officials. The U.K. chief of police in charge of counterterrorism estimated in June that 500 Britons alone have joined the group, although a member of British Parliament has said the number could be as high as 1,500.

At a recent U.S. intelligence briefing, American officials estimated the Islamic State's size to be about 10,000 before it took over Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, in June. European diplomats say the number may be as high as 20,000.

In June, after the Islamic State took over most of western Iraq and eastern Syria, controlling much of the border between the two countries, the Syrian regime began shifting its approach, striking Raqqa from the air. Since then, the Islamic State's appetite to attack the regime has grown, and it has assaulted government forces across Syria.

Iraqi officials say the strike on Raqqa may have been prompted by Baghdad's anger toward Damascus for allowing the Islamic State to rise to prominence in Syria, emboldening its Iraq branch.

Syrian civilians living in Raqqa and rebels said that unless the U.S. is willing to expand its military strikes against the Islamic State to include Syria, the group will continue to grow.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/assad-policies-aided-rise-of-islamic-state-militant-group-1408739733

# ? Aug 23, 2014 23:30

rudatron: May 31, 2011; by Fluffdaddy

Holy poo poo, asking the US to bomb ISIS targets in Syria. Assad has managed to flip international intervention from a threat, into a tool to protect his own regime, simply by fertilizing ISIS with the blood of the FSA.

gently caress Assad, gently caress that evil gently caress, gently caress him dead.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 23:48

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 19:39

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Volkerball posted:

I'm not portraying ethnic groups one way or the other. I'm referring to their leadership, and the tribal leaders and various other sunni power structures in Iraq that are clearly unanimously in favor of ISIS right now. That is not going to ease tensions with the shia, and it's not a step in the direction of an Iraqi government that is representative to sunni's and shia. I'm not "rooting" for the shia in Iraq. The difference is that moderate sunni's in Syria fight ISIS, and they speak of removing Assad and negotiating with the regime after that to create a government that works for everyone. In fact, the Syrians could sign up with ISIS, disband the FSA, and the opposition would be better for it from a military standpoint. A united opposition would probably go a long way towards taking Damascus. But they haven't resorted to that, despite facing infinitely more brutality than Iraqi sunni's. I can get behind that. I can't get behind what sunni's in Iraq are doing, even if the oppression against them is real. The powers that be within the Iraqi sunni community don't act consistently with trying to remove oppression, but rather, as temporarily disgraced Maliki's. It's not about punishment at all. That's the last thing anyone needs to be worrying about in the middle east.

It ultimately will lead to collective punishment because at this point the open question is wether we should back airstrikes or an invasion of the Sunni areas of Iraq. The Sunnis most likely support their tribal leaders and if anything an assault will solidify that alliance.

Also as far as the "moderate" Sunnis in Syria, many secular Sunnis support Assad and much of the non-ISIS opposition is still very Islamist even if they are not as hard-core as ISIS. In addition, those groups at the moment are on the defensive and losing and may become not so moderate on the offensive.

The real issue is trying to put a moral label on entire ethnic/religious groups because it is actually extremely dangerous and doesn't actually work.

As far as "oppression" wouldn't be the first time oppressors become the oppressed or vice-versa, the issue is without social stability that is more likely to happen. Iraq may not have been stable under Saddam but at this point it isn't going in the right direction without some serious political compromises.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 23:49

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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