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OK on further review Nebraska is a caucus that allows you to register Dem at the door. I would consider caution when betting against Sanders on those terms. 20c is probably still a steal for swings, etc. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 19:38 on Mar 2, 2016 |
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Mar 2, 2016 17:53
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Trump in LA and KY seem cheap to me - he was way ahead in the last KY poll (a week or two ago) and it's a state that's been ravaged by a declining coal industry, and Trump did well in TN. There's been no polling in LA since Sept. Am I right in thinking the voting pop of LA will look like GA/AL/AR?
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Mar 2, 2016 18:02
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How long does it take to get a check when you do a withdrawal? I'm more of a political junkie vs gambler by nature and I was having more fun with less stress when I had a few hundred in this thing and had swings back and forth of $20 vs having $1800 and seeing swings of hundreds of dollars every time I refreshed. Some of you guys have nerves of steel.
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Mar 2, 2016 18:37
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I hear it takes only a couple weeks or so, most. I hope whoever it was on PredictIt that maxed Bernie YES and Hillary NO cheap in Mass was smart enough to get out in time.
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Mar 2, 2016 18:41
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Zeta Taskforce posted:How long does it take to get a check when you do a withdrawal? pretty quick, 5-7 days or so
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Mar 2, 2016 18:44
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Still amazed that TRUMP.RNOM.YES went *down*. I figured it would go up by a few cents at least. I admit that I was overly optimistic, but this is crazy. Actually, people are probably selling because they want to put money on primaries. That's how I'm making sense of this, anyhow.
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Mar 2, 2016 18:47
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UnoriginalMind posted:Still amazed that TRUMP.RNOM.YES went *down*. I figured it would go up by a few cents at least. I admit that I was overly optimistic, but this is crazy. contested convention contract is up to 33% Trump's odds of winning a contested convention seem very, very low So the odds "make sense" at least to me.
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Mar 2, 2016 18:52
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UnoriginalMind posted:Still amazed that TRUMP.RNOM.YES went *down*. I figured it would go up by a few cents at least. I admit that I was overly optimistic, but this is crazy. People are dumb and he technically underperformed. They'll figure out over the next few days that there isn't really any path to the nomination for anyone else.
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Mar 2, 2016 18:52
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UnoriginalMind posted:Still amazed that TRUMP.RNOM.YES went *down*. I figured it would go up by a few cents at least. I admit that I was overly optimistic, but this is crazy. I think, honestly, that people are getting out of RNOM Trump because they can see the writing on the wall - Trump only gets the nomination if he reaches 1237, which is looking like he may just miss. Anything else and he is going to get screwed right the hell out of it. And even IF he gets 1237, they'll probably find a way to screw him.
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Mar 2, 2016 18:53
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pathetic little tramp posted:I think, honestly, that people are getting out of RNOM Trump because they can see the writing on the wall - Trump only gets the nomination if he reaches 1237, which is looking like he may just miss. Anything else and he is going to get screwed right the hell out of it. And even IF he gets 1237, they'll probably find a way to screw him. That's certainly a possibility. I guess I thought it would peak higher than it did.
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Mar 2, 2016 18:58
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JosefStalinator posted:People are dumb and he technically underperformed. They'll figure out over the next few days that there isn't really any path to the nomination for anyone else. or maybe you'll figure out that his path to 1237 looks tenuous
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Mar 2, 2016 18:58
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 quote:Advisory: Mitt Romney to speak on the 2016 race March 3 at University of Utah Nothingburger, endorsement, or the super longshot throwing his hat in? I'd probably go 65%, 34%, 1%
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Mar 2, 2016 19:07
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Arkane posted:or maybe you'll figure out that his path to 1237 looks tenuous I honestly think the full gatling gun blast has hurt Trump. It's not going to kill him, but yesterday shows it definitely hurt him. None of the remainder can surge past him though, I don't think. It's going to come down to like 1200 Trump, 1000 Cruz, 800 Rubio into the convention is my thought. That said, where the gently caress are the new dropout markets PI?
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Mar 2, 2016 19:10
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Arkane posted:
Endorsement, Rubio. Which is either equal to option #1 or a slight negative, take your pick
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Mar 2, 2016 19:13
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Arkane posted:or maybe you'll figure out that his path to 1237 looks tenuous Current projections show him on pace to take it.
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Mar 2, 2016 19:13
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Adar posted:Endorsement, Rubio. Which is either equal to option #1 or a slight negative, take your pick Maybe, but a strange place to endorse. Vox Nihili posted:Current projections show him on pace to take it. Right, which is why he is at 75, not sub 50.
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Mar 2, 2016 19:16
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It's tenuous in the sense that if you plug in a five way race for two more months and don't account for literally anything then sure yeah he only barely gets to 51% once you remember that the #2 person in the race has literally thrown away the New York Republican vote directly to Trump on prime time national television...
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Mar 2, 2016 19:16
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Vox Nihili posted:Current projections show him on pace to take it. You have a source for that? I'm curious as to whether or not I can flip these shares or if I just take a small loss. More info would help.
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Mar 2, 2016 19:16
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UnoriginalMind posted:You have a source for that? I'm curious as to whether or not I can flip these shares or if I just take a small loss. More info would help. The big fivethirtyeight projection (link should be on the right side of their front page). Also, if Trump gets something like 48% of the delegates I think they will give him the nomination at the convention. They'll likely have to change rules to make anyone else an option in the first round of voting (Rule 40 requires that candidates take a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to be considered in round 1). The more rules fuckery it takes, the less likely they are to go ahead and strip the nomination from the clear actual winner.
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Mar 2, 2016 19:37
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Really hoping to be able to flip Trump in KS and Clinton in Nebraska.
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Mar 2, 2016 19:37
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thethreeman posted:Trump in LA and KY seem cheap to me - he was way ahead in the last KY poll (a week or two ago) and it's a state that's been ravaged by a declining coal industry, and Trump did well in TN. There's been no polling in LA since Sept. Am I right in thinking the voting pop of LA will look like GA/AL/AR? re: Kentucky http://rpk.org/caucus/ "Kentucky voters must have been registered as Republicans by December 31, 2015, to be eligible to vote in the caucus." As someone pointed out in the comments (yeah, yeah) - being unable to change affiliation day of will be a bit of a roadblock that will mostly hurt Trump. But, from our only poll... http://wkussrc.blogspot.com/2016/02/trump-leads-competitors-by-double.html?spref=tw "62% of respondents support a temporary ban on non-US citizen Muslims from entering the country." "61% of respondents considered themselves to be “born again”, or evangelical, Christians." etc. etc. So, y'know.
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Mar 2, 2016 19:59
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Trump's probably going to take Kentucky and Maine, will take Louisiana if Cruz doesn't show up big there somehow (and will be close in delegates either way), and who knows what will happen in Kansas but it'll be either Cruz or Trump.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:08
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I'm hoping for some bad publicity for Cruz in the coming days in order to flip Kansas, which seems pretty volatile at this point.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:13
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C7ty1 posted:re: Kentucky People said that would impede Bernie Sanders in Colorado and it didn't make a dent. Trump is probably still going to do well here, though maybe not as well as he could if there were fewer restrictions.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:14
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a cop posted:I'm hoping for some bad publicity for Cruz in the coming days in order to flip Kansas, which seems pretty volatile at this point. i am in on cruz no in kansas because he is way too high right now
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Mar 2, 2016 20:15
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Vox Nihili posted:The big fivethirtyeight projection (link should be on the right side of their front page). how is someone not getting a majority equivalent to a clear actual winner? little bit of magical math going on there.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:17
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UnoriginalMind posted:People said that would impede Bernie Sanders in Colorado and it didn't make a dent. Trump is probably still going to do well here, though maybe not as well as he could if there were fewer restrictions. Yeah, the independent thing in CO didn't seem to make a difference. I heard anecdotally that a lot of places were overwhelmed enough by turnout that they simply weren't checking party registration. Either way, it seems that party registration doesn't mean as much as one would think. And anyway, Trump is doing well among registered Republicans at this point as well so I don't think the "independents voting Trump" CW story is really holding water.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:19
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a cop posted:I'm hoping for some bad publicity for Cruz in the coming days in order to flip Kansas, which seems pretty volatile at this point. Don't forget, gonna be a debate tomorrow. UnoriginalMind posted:People said that would impede Bernie Sanders in Colorado and it didn't make a dent. Trump is probably still going to do well here, though maybe not as well as he could if there were fewer restrictions. And yeah, I expect Trump to win, probably, but I don't think it'll be on blowout levels.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:20
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C7ty1 posted:Don't forget, gonna be a debate tomorrow. Ahhhh another one?! gently caress. I'm busy thursday nights, those fucks!
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Mar 2, 2016 20:22
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Arkane posted:how is someone not getting a majority equivalent to a clear actual winner? little bit of magical math going on there. "The rules say what I want them to say", said Calvin, just before Hobbes turned around and kicked Calvin in the face with his stormtrooper boots
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Mar 2, 2016 20:28
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Trump shares always get cheaper after a debate because people on PI seem to genuinely think they change things and Trump does not actually do well in debates.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:31
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The funny thing is that betting against Trump at 75 makes less sense than betting on who you think it will be in a non-Trump scenario at much less than 25. Problem is, I have no clue who it'll be. Seems like Rubio has the backing of the party and is formidable in the general, Cruz might have a slight delegate edge but won't do too well in November, and Kasich could be the longshot compromise pick, also with an eye towards November.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:42
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Arkane posted:The funny thing is that betting against Trump at 75 makes less sense than betting on who you think it will be in a non-Trump scenario at much less than 25. Problem is, I have no clue who it'll be. Seems like Rubio has the backing of the party and is formidable in the general, Cruz might have a slight delegate edge but won't do too well in November, and Kasich could be the longshot compromise pick, also with an eye towards November. If I were inclined to throw money away on this for w/e reason it would be to take a Kasich, Romney, Bloomberg, and Ryan basket, and also to do it on Betfair where you get > 100-1 I do have a shitload of Pres.Bloomberg at super high odds which is probably still +EV
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Mar 2, 2016 20:55
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Arkane posted:The funny thing is that betting against Trump at 75 makes less sense than betting on who you think it will be in a non-Trump scenario at much less than 25. Problem is, I have no clue who it'll be. Seems like Rubio has the backing of the party and is formidable in the general, Cruz might have a slight delegate edge but won't do too well in November, and Kasich could be the longshot compromise pick, also with an eye towards November. There is a man prophesied to ride in on a gray horse to save the day, for Pete's sake.
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Mar 2, 2016 20:56
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Vox Nihili posted:Also, if Trump gets something like 48% of the delegates I think they will give him the nomination at the convention. They'll likely have to change rules to make anyone else an option in the first round of voting (Rule 40 requires that candidates take a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to be considered in round 1). The more rules fuckery it takes, the less likely they are to go ahead and strip the nomination from the clear actual winner. Rule 40 is likely to change to fit the needs of the race when it gets to the convention anyway. If Trump runs away with it, they'll put the threshold high enough to make sure nobody else can be nominated and avoid a bitter fight; if instead it is close and a fight is what they need, then they can drop it to x, which is the number of states won by Rubio (or Cruz, if he should be in 3rd by the end). Hell, if Kasich wins Ohio, they can make it 1 state just so those delegates won't be forced to bolt. Anyway, I don't think the "Trump fails to get a majority" scenario is outlandish as some of the serious-minded analysts think it is, but it's still rather unlikely. I think it hinges on Trump continuing to dominate the next two weeks, but starting to lose later for whatever reason (ceiling vs. 1/2 strong opponents, a scandal somehow sticks, whatever). Then follows a list of mostly necessary bullet points, with "Rubio wins California" likely being at the end of the list. Actually, that sounds a lot like how they managed to present a semi-plausible contested convention scenario on The West Wing. Maybe we can draft Al Bundy from the floor in real life, too! Adar posted:If I were inclined to throw money away on this for w/e reason it would be to take a Kasich, Romney, Bloomberg, and Ryan basket, and also to do it on Betfair where you get > 100-1 This seems like good advice.
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Mar 2, 2016 21:23
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is there any conceivable way that Hillary takes Nebraska or Kansas or should I just sell all my shares at a 30-45c loss follow up question is does the market swing back towards 50/50 prior to the caucuses so I take less of a loss on these 
IM DAY DAY IRL has issued a correction as of 21:38 on Mar 2, 2016 |
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Mar 2, 2016 21:35
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I bought a pile of Christie-YES for the GOP VP nom when it was 5c and now it's hanging around 20c. I am really on the fence on capturing the profits now or letting it ride. I believe the absolute math is: do I want to wager 20 to win 100? I'd need to believe he has 4:1 odds or better for getting on the ticket. As cozy as they are, Trump will only pick him if it adds security to his chances in the general, which I think makes sense but really I don't know how to break that down into its component factors so it's largely a hunch. I think I'm also 100% discounting the chance that Trump isn't the one picking a VP for the general but after yesterday I feel comfortable with that tbh. Then there's the less absolute math: do I believe the Christie-YES share will simply go above 20 at some point before it closes? If so, how far up, and when/what are my indicators for knowing it's time to sell (vs. indicators that i should continue to hold despite the price being higher). I have no clue on that one. What would your thought processes be on that?
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Mar 2, 2016 21:49
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If there's no polling I'd imagine it'd swing up to at leeaaasstt 40c. But gently caress if I know! My record's been poo poo!
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Mar 2, 2016 21:49
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I just bought 895 shares of Romney.RUN NO at 75 cents 
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Mar 2, 2016 21:58
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Bhaal posted:I bought a pile of Christie-YES for the GOP VP nom when it was 5c and now it's hanging around 20c. I am really on the fence on capturing the profits now or letting it ride. dump it asap christie is a national joke, and they appeal to the same demographic
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Mar 2, 2016 21:59
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