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Zeit tends to have a fairly solid median poll tracking with pre-calculated seat ratios and possible coalitions:
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Sep 20, 2021 11:57
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Perestroika posted:Zeit tends to have a fairly solid median poll tracking with pre-calculated seat ratios and possible coalitions:
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Sep 20, 2021 12:32
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GABA ghoul posted:They currently have a majority of seats according to polls. Remember, stimmverteilung != sitzverteilung Yeah but out of all possible coalitions they have the smallest margin above 50% as far as I know. So I would not call it the most likely outcome
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Sep 20, 2021 12:40
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Petition to rename the Kenia coalition to Nizza coalition. All in favour say "Jawoll!" mcbexx fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Sep 20, 2021 |
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Sep 20, 2021 12:44
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BabyFur Denny posted:Yeah but out of all possible coalitions they have the smallest margin above 50% as far as I know. So I would not call it the most likely outcome Jamaika and Ampel are barely ahead of them anyway. But please remember Überhangmandate and Ausgleichsmandate, the Bundestag will once again be much bigger than the about 600 planned seats thanks to the Union likely winning far more Direktmandate than their Zweitstimmenergebnis would justify. Since not all Überhangmandate will be ausgeglichen, CDU/CSU will get a few more seats in the Bundestag than their share of the national vote would suggest. And with majorities as thin as projected so far, this could make a big difference.
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Sep 20, 2021 12:45
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ya7pEDndgE Nothing really surprising in there, but still a good watch.
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Sep 20, 2021 13:48
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mcbexx posted:Petition to rename the Kenia coalition to Nizza coalition. Schwampel
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Sep 20, 2021 13:51
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Perestroika posted:Zeit tends to have a fairly solid median poll tracking with pre-calculated seat ratios and possible coalitions: I'm triggered by the ordering the parties in the different options by size and not by colours on the respective flags 
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Sep 20, 2021 17:40
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niethan posted:Schwampel
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Sep 20, 2021 17:44
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SoggyBobcat posted:Looking at the polling aggregate on Wikipedia and the last few pages of this thread, can anyone give the lowdown on what's going on to a non-German speaker?
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Sep 20, 2021 18:59
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lllllllllllllllllll posted:Sure, but would you acknowledge them, take note, honour the effort?
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Sep 20, 2021 19:02
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loving hellder spiegel posted:Eine gute Stunde später sei er erneut in der Tankstelle erschienen – diesmal habe er eine Mund-Nasen-Bedeckung getragen, wieder ein Sechserpack Bier genommen, und sei zur Kasse gegangen. »Dort setzte er die Mund-Nasen-Bedeckung ab«, sagte Oberstaatsanwalt Fuhrmann. Der Kassierer habe den Mann erneut auf die Einhaltung der Maskenpflicht hingewiesen: Daraufhin zog der Täter einen Revolver und erschoss den Kassierer. https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/jus...da-26bbf5c66d07 A 49 year old shot a 20 year old cashier at a gas station because he insisted on the perp wearing a mask
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Sep 20, 2021 19:22
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SoggyBobcat posted:I did read it, I'm working as an election worker for the Canadian federal election today and can only access my phone on break.
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Sep 20, 2021 19:40
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niethan posted:Schwampel It was my attempt at a convoluted 69/"nice" joke.
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Sep 20, 2021 20:08
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Keinen anderen Ausweg gesehen bc of a fuckin mask What a piece of whiny poo poo
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Sep 20, 2021 20:22
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Zwille posted:loving hell just what the gently caress I hope this piece of poo poo rots in prison for a very, very long time. Why should an innocent 20 year old suffer for this, couldn't he have shot a politician or someone like that at least? This makes me really mad.
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Sep 20, 2021 20:35
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How do you even resozialisier someone like that? Yeah sure bud, that guy on the lowest rung of the ladder is responsible for all your woes 
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Sep 20, 2021 20:38
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Zwille posted:loving hell thought I was in one of the many america covid threads til I saw it was a der spiegel article
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Sep 20, 2021 20:44
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You can still blame the yanks for this kind of poo poo at least. Their tech companies are pushing it, and Covid truther channels are absolutely full of Trump this and Deep State that.
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Sep 20, 2021 20:46
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Antigravitas posted:You can still blame the yanks for this kind of poo poo at least. Their tech companies are pushing it, and Covid truther channels are absolutely full of Trump this and Deep State that. I remember, several months ago in early spring, I took a bike ride west along the Rhein river from Mainz, and I saw somewhere beyond Bingen was this large biergarten with several flags flying, among them Q, Trump, and Punisher flags. I know political derangement is universal, but for the love of all that is good, why is American flavored madness in particular being imported??
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Sep 20, 2021 20:50
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Cultural hegemony 
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Sep 20, 2021 20:51
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It isn't being imported, it's actively being exported. The home grown insanity doesn't really have the focus of Trump and Q and Ivermectin and whatnot. Like, this is home grown:  This ain't:  
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Sep 20, 2021 21:08
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Idiots understand English but not Russian or Chinese. They're on Twitter and Facebook but not weibo or line. American this and that is discussed on all tv stations all day, so they're familiar with the relevant politicians and celebrities. That's why it's similar. That said, you can certainly believe that immigrant communities are also sending each other purestrain Russian / Chinese / Turkish horseshit on relevant social media channels. We just don't hear about it because there's not that many of each individual category, and neither you nor most German journalists understand the relevant language.
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Sep 20, 2021 21:13
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What do the americans have to do with a guy murdering some innocent student worker? He just sounds like your typical european "how dare you oppose me" narcissistic ideologue.
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Sep 21, 2021 11:41
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Bedshaped posted:What do the americans have to do with a guy murdering some innocent student worker? He just sounds like your typical American "how dare you oppose me" narcissistic ideologue. Yes, that's true.
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Sep 21, 2021 11:50
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Shooting people in the face because of „my freedoms“ kind of is an American thing, sorry. I don’t make the cliches, i only enfor… is that a gun or are you just nazi to see me?
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Sep 21, 2021 11:52
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Bedshaped posted:What do the americans have to do with a guy murdering some innocent student worker? He just sounds like your typical european "how dare you oppose me" narcissistic ideologue. It's because American propaganda is massively fanning the flames.   
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Sep 21, 2021 12:26
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Wer die Pissositos sind interessiert mich jetzt aber gewaltig, wie kann man so heißen
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Sep 21, 2021 12:29
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Same.
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Sep 21, 2021 12:41
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Und wo verstecken sie sich?
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Sep 21, 2021 12:56
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Antigravitas posted:It's because American propaganda is massively fanning the flames. I don't disagree but at the same time making this the takeaway of what he did is like letting him use his own bullshit excuses ("keinen anderen Ausweg gesehen") to justify it. The scumbag deserves to rot for this and there's nothing in his search history that will make me feel even a single shred of sympathy for how he got here. When people go to americanisms immediately for answers in times like this it's like they're saying that in a vacuum europeans wouldn't still be utterly irredeemable pieces of poo poo at the best of times.
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Sep 21, 2021 14:53
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https://twitter.com/MatthiasMeisner/status/1440294041569021966
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Sep 21, 2021 15:12
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Imo people are damaged everywhere, and US shootings happen to be most present in the media because it is normal for people there to have access to guns unlike in other countries. So it may seem like there is a connection when actually it was just some dude going off the deep end on his own who happened to have a gun in a country where most people don't. And yes rot in jail he should, but they will declare him some flavour of not zurechnungsfähig and he will end up in a loony bin instead, getting vastly better treatment than he deserves.
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Sep 21, 2021 15:12
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My Lovely Horse posted:Wer die Pissositos sind interessiert mich jetzt aber gewaltig, wie kann man so heißen Hört sich an wie der Name einer Sitzpinkler Rockergang.
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Sep 21, 2021 15:17
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Yeah, I see that the flow of conversation went that way, but personally I'm not trying to draw a connection between Americans and this shooting specifically. The shooter may or may not have been influenced by American propaganda, but angry people flying off the handle and becoming violent is something that happens everywhere. The overall connection between querdenker and American conspiracy movements is what I meant in my other post.
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Sep 21, 2021 15:20
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CDU-voters must secretly be Nazis, because the latest polls see the CDU rising again. Maybe Laschet should talk some more with Nazi-scum? 
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Sep 21, 2021 15:48
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If he goes full hitler, gains 6% but AfD loses 6% that's a net loss for nazis because they won't get into parliament by democratic means then. It's not optimal but I'll take it. Just SPD needs to get some more points, or Greens. If CSU fails the 5% and Direktmandate, that'd be another loss for conservatives too. I think if AfD loses 6% to CDU CSU loses enough to get kicked out we'll have the same percentages as CDU/CSU has right now. (yeah I'm aware this has some serious Hillary can still win fantasy math vibes)
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Sep 21, 2021 15:52
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Zwille posted:If he goes full hitler, gains 6% but AfD loses 6% that's a net loss for nazis because they won't get into parliament by democratic means then. It's not optimal but I'll take it. Just SPD needs to get some more points, or Greens. If CSU fails the 5% and Direktmandate, that'd be another loss for conservatives too. I think if This is a) not how Anbiederung an die nazis works (it usually just strengthens them) and b) not how the CSU works (they will win 40 plus Direktmandate even if they fall below 5%)
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Sep 21, 2021 16:06
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Hopper posted:who happened to have https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/jus...61-33b17016569e
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Sep 21, 2021 16:07
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I can't keep track of all these types of stochastic terrorism anymore
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Sep 21, 2021 16:22
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