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It's also not only gas that is at play here. With the current spike in logistic costs from asia to europe via shipping containers (and the overall hosed up situation with outsourced parts from asia), some logistic routes changed from ship to train, adjusting for the longer delivery times. The main train routes lead through Russia, so with a struggling economy in sense of actuall fullfilling an order (instead of just "having the Auftragsbücher voll") still depends in these logistics. Ship became really expensive, train stayed more or less the same with longer lead times...but leads through Russia.
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Feb 14, 2022 12:48
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 20:35 |
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 taz  aphid_licker posted:Shouldn't telling Putin that the invasion is going to be expensive economically make war less likely? If he thinks it's easy and we'll let it slide the war is definitely coming Sanctions only work if Russia is taking its economy's status seriously. It should be noted that Germany's existing sanctions are already pretty painful on Russia's economy. FWIW, Germany has always been more diplomatic than, say, France. And you can bet that both have been coordinating their responses behind closed doors.
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Feb 14, 2022 12:52
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The economy is an existential concern for any country
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Feb 14, 2022 12:59
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If you are a kleptocrat you can enrich yourself just fine even when the economy is in absolute shambles.
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Feb 14, 2022 13:10
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Until an angry mob nails your balls to the pavement in front of your palace
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Feb 14, 2022 13:12
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DTurtle posted:There was this time roughly 80 years ago where we were very obviously the bad guys and Russia is the successor state of one of the biggest victims of that time. How is that supposed to work? Is Germany never allowed to take a stance against them doing something terrible? Forever? Or how long? Till they equal or exceed the terrible stuff Germany did? Some sort of kill-counter?
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Feb 14, 2022 13:33
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Tarquinn posted:How is that supposed to work? Is Germany never allowed to take a stance against them doing something terrible? Forever? Or how long? Till they equal or exceed the terrible stuff Germany did? Some sort of kill-counter? Yes, see also: Israel
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Feb 14, 2022 13:36
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https://twitter.com/oezgeschmoezge/status/1492885155240890376?t=2fCjcL6izxkwYFZjGlCsog&s=19 Is there a gas leak in Köln?
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Feb 14, 2022 13:37
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nawilo_420 posted:Yes, see also: Israel Cooles Totschlagargument there, bro. So you are saying that Germany should never use its influence to prevent wars and atrocities from happening?
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Feb 14, 2022 13:45
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GABA ghoul posted:https://twitter.com/oezgeschmoezge/status/1492885155240890376?t=2fCjcL6izxkwYFZjGlCsog&s=19 Yeah, it started in their breweries and spread from there.
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Feb 14, 2022 13:49
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It was a bit of a trip today to see the headline "Incidence down for the second day in a row, uncertain if trend will continue" right next to "Lindner schreit nach Lockerungen".
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Feb 14, 2022 13:58
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Gonna laugh if it turns out that Inzidenz is only dropping bc all kids are now genesen
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Feb 14, 2022 14:00
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There's definitely a bit of good cop/bad cop with Germany and France going on, when both sides are united on an issue and it suits the French to flex their muscles.Hopper posted:It's gonna be the usual.Tip-toe around and hand-wring quite a lot, then watch and say "nothing we could have done" and then lament how X product/resource Ukraine had is now more expensive because prices are now dictated by Russia. This seems to be the rare issue that unites the EU, since the usual troublemakers (Hungary, Poland) have very real reasons to be anti-Russia on this specific question. Orban might praise Putin for his handling of LGBT issues, but Russia annexing the neighboring Ukraine is a huge no go. United EU opposition to an Ukraine invasion has been surprisingly strong imho.
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Feb 14, 2022 14:16
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Tarquinn posted:Cooles Totschlagargument there, bro. Haha you believe we use our influence to prevent wars and atrocities  I mean, we totally should do that! But the reality is that we turn a blind eye to every atrocity that benefits our interest and shed some crocodile tears over those that do not. Or we simply welcome the atrocities with open arms, especially they are far enough away. And the "because of our history" argument is used to justify everything on all sides. We have to defend Ukraine because our nazi grandfathers killed so many of them, no, we have to leave Russia alone because our grandfathers worked with Ukrainian Nazis to kill so many russians! We only (mostly) agree on one thing: unconditional support of Israel in the face of international antisemitic conspiracies from hate groups like Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch, which is what not-oliwan was hinting at. Spice World War II fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Feb 14, 2022 |
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Feb 14, 2022 15:09
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Tarquinn posted:Cooles Totschlagargument there, bro. I mean the opposite op, i was being ironic edit: so yes, this  Spice World War II posted:And the "because of our history" argument is used to justify everything on all sides. We have to defend Ukraine because our nazi grandfathers killed so many of them, no, we have to leave Russia alone because our grandfathers worked with Ukrainian Nazis to kill so many russians! We only (mostly) agree on one thing: unconditional support of Israel in the face of international antisemitic conspiracies from hate groups like Amnesty Internation or Human Rights Watch, which is what not-oliwan was hinting at. nawilo_420 fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Feb 14, 2022 |
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Feb 14, 2022 15:22
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Alright, I stand corrected. Appreciate that.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:25
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A NEW CHALLENGER APPEARS
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Feb 14, 2022 15:55
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My knowledge about international power plays is very limited but like what could we actually do outside of shipping some military hardware and first aid kits to ukraine with a nicely worded letter wishing them well? If russia would invade we couldn't stop them in any way because our military is a joke in comparision to theirs and it feels like a lot of people in the media/politics act like that isn't the truth. I guess sanctions are a thing but aren't there enough other countries in the world willing to pick up the slack and effectively neutralize that? As said I'm not knowledgable at all on these topics but to me it seems we can't do anything beyond shipping out stuff and saying things that russia can ignore as it pleases 
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Feb 14, 2022 16:16
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Tin Tim posted:My knowledge about international power plays is very limited but like what could we actually do outside of shipping some military hardware and first aid kits to ukraine with a nicely worded letter wishing them well? If russia would invade we couldn't stop them in any way because our military is a joke in comparision to theirs and it feels like a lot of people in the media/politics act like that isn't the truth. I guess sanctions are a thing but aren't there enough other countries in the world willing to pick up the slack and effectively neutralize that? As said I'm not knowledgable at all on these topics but to me it seems we can't do anything beyond shipping out stuff and saying things that russia can ignore as it pleases Gas pipelines to Europe is what's keeping the Russian oligarchic petro state alive and they can't sell gas to anyone else through these lines. If there was a will, Europe could diversify away from Russian gas over the next decade and substantially limit their warmaking ability. It would also put us in a position to actually credibly wield deterrents like a SWIFT ban for when they decide to become even more aggressive with the EU. Like, Russia doesn't murder people or spread nerve agents in the middle of DC because they are actually deterred by possible American economic and diplomatic consequences. That could be us, not having our people murdered in the streets by FSB killers, if only we would finally ween ourselves off that loving Russian gas.
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Feb 14, 2022 16:33
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While we're at it, we could also ween ourselves off that Oil and our weapon sales so we could credibly claim that we don't want anymore jemenis genocided or journalists chopped up!
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Feb 14, 2022 17:35
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Tin Tim posted:If russia would invade we couldn't stop them in any way because our military is a joke in comparision to theirs That is not true in the slightest. The Russian military is inferior to even an EU defense. It will, however, wipe the floor with Ukraine, which is not in the EU or NATO and none of the EU or NATO countries are going to risk a world war to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Fun flashback to the summer of 2021: Baerbock talking about the pipeline and Ukraine. Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Feb 14, 2022 |
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Feb 14, 2022 18:18
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GABA ghoul posted:Gas pipelines to Europe is what's keeping the Russian oligarchic petro state alive and they can't sell gas to anyone else through these lines. Antigravitas posted:That is not true in the slightest. The Russian military is inferior to even an EU defense.
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Feb 14, 2022 18:44
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Tarquinn posted:How is that supposed to work? Is Germany never allowed to take a stance against them doing something terrible? Forever? Or how long? Till they equal or exceed the terrible stuff Germany did? Some sort of kill-counter? The world is not black and white. There are lots of grey tones. There is a difference between clearly positioning oneself against Russia and never taking a stance against Russia. And that grey space is where Germany is trying to position itself. This position is one that has been a staple of German politics since at least Willy Brandt in the 1960s/1970s. It is one of always talking, talking, talking and doing everything to keep those channels open. Do you think that Germany not supplying weapons to Ukraine is going to make the difference between Russia attacking or not? And in the case of an attack, of it succeeding or not? And is Russia more likely to stay in talks with Germany if Germany does not supply weapons? If it is unlikely to make the difference with regards to an attack, but make talks less likely to continue, then that should be taken into account. That is the thinking behind the current German approach. Do note that Germany is still massively supporting Ukraine with money, economic, and non-weapon military aid. Germany is telling Russia that if they attack they will be hit with the hardest economic sanctions possible. Germany (and the EU) are lining up alternative supplies of gas in case they implement those economic sanctions on Russia. Lastly, does playing up the immediacy of a possible attack from Russia really place the pressure on Russia? Or does it play into Russia's hands, if they decide not to attack or to attack later? How long can the US keep shouting that an attack is imminent without an attack happening until that becomes laughable? Is that really weakening Russia's position? DTurtle fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Feb 14, 2022 |
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Feb 14, 2022 18:51
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Good news from my homeland everyone, our neighbour the Netherlands (inzidenz about 2x that of Germany last time I checked): Corona is over! They are removing all measures as per next week Friday. No more masks (mask mandate was a joke anyway, it was almost nowhere), no more social distancing, no more anything. They never had 2G so that doesn't even needs removing. There was a 3G requirement for *some* things but on the whole the Dutch refused to use QR codes for anything so that's not a problem either.
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Feb 14, 2022 19:16
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I mean one part of the mess that doesn't really get a lot of play is that when Germany and France say the Minsk treaty has to be the basis for peace, we are basically asking for most of Russia's demands to be met:quote:Ukraine-Russia crisis: What is the Minsk agreement? | Ukraine-Russia crisis News | Al Jazeera]Immediate, comprehensive ceasefire. The bolded part is basically the "can't join NATO" clause. Now, you could fairly argue that the Minsk treaty was Russia dictating terms after winning round two of the military conflict, but it is also the official policy of France and Germany.
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Feb 14, 2022 23:18
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nawilo_420 posted:Good news from my homeland everyone, our neighbour the Netherlands (inzidenz about 2x that of Germany last time I checked): Corona is over! Here in Austria there's also increasing noise about letting corona into your heart and lungs. Very loud thinking by several government party big wigs about somehow restricting testing. They must be pretty mad at Vienna who built a high capacity testing system in the summer and basically shamed everyone into going along. If I'm not reading this wrong we're testing about 10% of the population a day in the eastern states. Hard to say how much this does to slow infections since the tests are mostly voluntary and probably skew heavily toward the bunker hermit side of things.
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Feb 14, 2022 23:49
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Whats Munich like to live in? Never been to Germany before.
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Feb 15, 2022 00:45
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Pekinduck posted:Whats Munich like to live in? Never been to Germany before. Expensive.
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Feb 15, 2022 01:47
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Infected posted:Expensive. Like USA expensive or better?
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Feb 15, 2022 02:53
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Pekinduck posted:Like USA expensive or better? More like Manhattan expensive.
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Feb 15, 2022 07:32
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Pekinduck posted:Whats Munich like to live in? Never been to Germany before. In addition to whats been said: Munich/Bavaria is the Texas of Germany (south, thick accent, conservative, religious, way too proud of themselves, and so on...)
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Feb 15, 2022 08:10
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Pekinduck posted:Whats Munich like to live in? Never been to Germany before. probably quite nice if you're white and rich and love doing white people stuff
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Feb 15, 2022 08:25
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Reasons to come to Munich Best german food Winter sports Best lakes Nice air quality Nobody has to live in Altbauen Nice salaries Everyone has to be in bed by 9
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Feb 15, 2022 08:29
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FC Bayern München, though… Just kidding, I really like Munich. Have to go there regularly (well, at least in the before-corona times) for business reasons, and it‘s definitely one of my favourite cities to travel to.
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Feb 15, 2022 08:48
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Munich has a lot going for it, but it also has downsides. We are close to the Alps and Italy so winter sports and summer vacation locations are close by. This also means everybody wants to be here, therefore rents and property in Munich is indeed extremely expensive, and finding a place to live takes a while. And even the towns and villages 30 km around Munich are expensive to live in. While we do have some Altbauten, most have been "luxussaniert", i.e. the tenants got kicked out, the place was modernized to insane standards and rent is now tripled. Bavarian food is indeed great but heavy, and while we have restaurants with foreign cuisine, there is nowhere near the amount of options and quality younger in New York or London. And our fast food/street food options are limited. McD, Burger King, Döner Kebap and Leberkässemmel mainly. And they don't call Munich the "largest village"for nothing. While we have good public transport, our infrastructure is underequipped for the masses of cars we have, not Manhattan bad but getting there. There is a hard no on building skyscrapers because reasons (Frauenkirche has to be the highest building in downtown; it would block the view to x) which keeps a lid on available apartments for example. And generally, small minded, conservative people are holding us back. Oh yeah and shops close at 8. All that said, I grew up here and like it, but unless you come here with a fat paycheck under your belt, I'd think hard whether you want to move here. I don't have that kind of job and I dread to think what happens if I have to find another place to live... it's been getting real wild the last 10 years and there is no change coming anytime soon. Hopper fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 09:06
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genericnick posted:I mean one part of the mess that doesn't really get a lot of play is that when Germany and France say the Minsk treaty has to be the basis for peace, we are basically asking for most of Russia's demands to be met: The only demands that we, the public, know of is Russia's insane and unconditional ultimatum to NATO( the one where they threatened "technical-military" solutions if it's not met). Nothing else ever leaked out of the countless talks/negotiations. The NATO ultimatum is mainly about giving Russia decision powers over NATO troop movement in eastern Europe and is not even about Ukraine. Pekinduck posted:Whats Munich like to live in? Very, very carefully
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Feb 15, 2022 09:20
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Antigravitas posted:Next word of the day: Current word of the day: Ehrgeiz
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Feb 15, 2022 09:21
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Tin Tim posted:Thanks for a little insight into that topic! That's a few modern tanks and a huge stock of obsolete hardware. Just EU countries alone outspend Russia thrive over, with more modern toys. It's a bit of an insane hypothetical because if it actually comes to a shooting war between EU countries and Russia, we're all dead regardless of the size and girth of our respective militaries. And one would hope neither side is going to entertain even the thought of escalating to this point. (And it is why you are unlikely to see NATO or EU troops in Ukraine) Pekinduck posted:Whats Munich like to live in? Never been to Germany before. That's Bavaria, not Germany.
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Feb 15, 2022 09:28
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When most people think of Germany, they picture Bavaria. If Russia gets in a shooting war with the EU, the US and NATO are getting involved. But Yeah, it is hardly worth thinking about because the possibility of that happening is slim to none in the near future. The biggest threat Germany and the EU face with a Russia invasion of Ukraine is refugees and Russia limiting or stopping gas flow to the EU. And while the latter is a double edged sword for Russia, they have been preparing for such possibilities the last few years (stress testing banks, cash reserves, ect.). I am not sure how well the governments in the EU could handle such a scenario, people will start getting real angry if they are freezing and/or energy prices go up 1000%.
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Feb 15, 2022 09:38
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Hopper posted:Ö The last sentence remains generally true, though.
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